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This week’s top will depend on….The Minor wave 4 end point will determine if Minor wave 5 (and Intermediate wave A) ends this week. This corrective wave has been tremendous, but possibly too fast. Minor wave 3 thus far has already broken above the preliminary estimates for the end of Intermediate wave A. The initial Intermediate wave A locations were based on the idea Primary wave 2 would last 278 hours and gain a total of 307 points from the low of 4103 as outlined in this idea: The movement thus far about the initial Intermediate wave A endpoint indicates the final market top is now above 4416 as opposed to around 4385. Intermediate wave A is also on pace to finish this week which is a week early. This earlier finish could point to the final market top occurring in early- to mid-December instead of the final week. Minor wave 4 does not appear to have occurred last week. The hourly chart continued to achieve wave 3 signals until the final hour of trading on Friday (visible in the EW_3_V2 indicator at the bottom of the chart when the green bars stopped painting a light blue background). This appears to indicate the final 30 minutes on Friday began Minor wave 4 downward. This analysis will project Minor wave 4’s movement based on completed waves to this point. The new derivative model indicates likely movement zones based on historical data. The small green box is based on median move and duration data, while the yellow box contains the first through third of historical quartile data. The white box should contain the overall end point as it is comprised of all common historical movement. The percentage levels to the right are based on another model-type of relational wave data. The most specific quartile data are the pink levels with the top one at 38.01% being the first quartile, middle one of 47.67% as the median and the 72.04% level is the third quartile. The historical maximum wave 4 retracement is the red level at 84.72% and most likely will not come into play for the pending wave 4 down. The next slightly broader dataset are the light blue levels and the yellow levels are the broadest dataset used. Based on these models Monday should be somewhat of a downward moving day. I would speculate the low and end to Minor wave 4 occurs on Monday, but there is a chance it happens early Tuesday as well. Once Minor wave 4 is completed, Minor wave 5 should take the market up. A general Elliott wave principle is use nearly all of the time is the length of a third wave cannot be shorter than waves 1 and 5. Right now Minor wave 1 was 16 hours and wave 2 was only 14. This would indicate Minor wave 5 must be 14 hours or less. This means the market top for this week should occur prior to the close on Wednesday and then the market will begin Intermediate wave B’s downward movement for the next week and change. In the event Minor wave 3 did not end on Friday, then the market will likely achieve another high greater than 4373.62 within the first hour or two on Monday and then begin Minor wave 4’s downward movement. A new high after the first hour of trading makes Minor wave 3 equal to or longer than Minor wave 1’s movement and no longer restricts the length of Minor wave 5. Based on the accelerated pace and high achieved in Minor wave 3, Minor wave 5’s top this week likely wont go above 4420, but that will be determined better once Minor wave 4 has completed. Although a new high should occur this week, it does not appear this week will continue the red hot movement from last week. METHODOLOGY: I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. Derivative models take the annotated waves from the above methodology and compare specific ratioed-relationships to predict future movement based off of smallest standard deviations in processed models. ***Currently in beta testing to determine efficacy***
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
ES: Fed Pivot Breathes Life into MarketsCME: E-Mini S&P 500 Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) Last Wednesday, investors cheered as the Fed kept interest rates unchanged for the second time in a row. On Friday, a soft jobs report backed up market expectations that the rate-hiking campaign is over. For the full week, the Dow was up by 5.07% in its best week since October 2022. The S&P was higher by 5.85% and the Nasdaq gained 6.61%. It was the best week for both indexes since November 2022. Investors Choose to Ignore What the Fed Says Stock market behavior shows that the Fed is still the dominant driver. Drilling down further, I find that what moves market is not the actual Fed action, but the expectation of what the Fed would do next. Very often, such market-moving expectations could be in direct contradiction of the Fed Chair’s public statement. At the post-FOMC press conference, the Fed Chair said that they had not made a decision for the next meeting. He also stated that pausing now would not prevent the Fed from raising rates again. The Fed Chair stressed that they had not discussed if or when to cut rates. The overarching focus now is to bring inflation down to the 2% target rate. Investors think otherwise. According to CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of keeping rates unchanged on the December 13th FOMC is 95.4% as of November 5th. By the FOMC meeting scheduled on May 1st, 2024, the odds for cutting rates by 25-50 bps are 71%. (Link: www.cmegroup.com) Investors acted upon their expectations. Prior to the Fed meeting, Treasury yields were rising sharply. 10Y rose from 4.5% to above 5.0% in 11 days. In the three days following the rate decision, 10Y took a nosedive and now back to 4.6%. This dramatic changes in yields took place while the Fed did nothing. The stock market rebound could be attributed to the change in expectations too. Lowering rates has the effect of raising the present value of future cash flows, thus increasing a company’s market value, as prescribed by the Discounted Cash Flow valuation method. The collapse of the US dollar is due to the expectations that it would not generate higher returns without further rate increases, according to interest-rate parity theory. Let’s look at two more examples: On July 26th, the Fed raised rates by 25 bps. This was the 11th consecutive rate hike. US stocks rose initially, with the major indexes going up 1-2%. Investors interpreted that this marked the end of Fed tightening. The expectations of Fed Pivot drove market higher, even though the Fed continued to stress the important for fighting inflation. The September 20th FOMC was the first Fed Pause. On face value, this should have been taken as a huge positive. However, investors believed that the Fed would raise rates one more time by year end. US stocks falls so much that both S&P and Nasdaq lost more than 10% from their high and entered contractionary territory. Trading with E-Mini S&P Options What’s the implication from the above observation? 1. Investors may have an easier time forecasting the Fed decision itself than the market reaction after worth. A 95% probability of a Fed Pause could not tell if the stock market would rise or fall after the decision is made. 2. Investor expectations could be adjusted very quickly. Following the Fed decision, the stock market could move up or down by 5% in a week. We could build an event-driven strategy focusing on the December 13th Fed meeting. If we think that the stock market would make a sizable move after the Fed decision, CME E-Mini S&P Options on Futures could be used to express this view. The trade would not be built by this single insight only. There are more: The November jobs report will be released on Friday, December 8th, and the November CPI data will be published on Tuesday, December 12th. These big reports, available to the Fed right before the FOMC, could have a major impact on its rate decision. More importantly, it could alter investor expectations and drive market volatility. The December 2023 contract (ESE3) will be expired on Friday, December 15th, two days after the FOMC. It is also the “Triple Witching Day”, where US stock index futures, stock index options, and single-stock options contracts all expire on the same trading day. My writeup from September shows that stock market is highly likely to make a big move on Triple Witching and on the days leading up to it. With big reports, Fed decision and Triple Witching all within one week, the stock market could enter wild swings as investors digest new data. Time is ripe for options traders. CME E-Mini S&P 500 Options provide leverage and capital efficiency. Options are based on futures contracts. Contract notional is $50 x S&P 500 Index. On the morning of November 6th, the December futures contract is quoted 4,384. The out-of-the-money (OTM) call strike 4,580 is the most active call options, with over 50,000 lots traded. If a trader purchases a call and it finishes at 100 points above the strike, she will realize a gain of $5,000 (=50 x 100), minus the upfront premium she paid. If the market moves against the trade, with the index value below the strike, she will lose money, up to but not beyond the upfront premium. The OTM put strike traded 1,023 lots. If the trader purchases a put and it finishes 100 points below strike, the trader will also make $5,000, minus the premium. If the market moves against the trade to finish above the put strike, the trader will lose money, up to but not beyond the upfront premium. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
6
US500- Keylevels - DailySpectacular comeback for us500, but now let's see what will happen next week. It seems that it manages to close both the week and the day well and thus leaves room for another climb up to the area of 4398-4400. Here we have an ultimate test for buyers, let's see if they want to leave and collect the profits or if they will still stay in the game. Buyers must show strength at that level as well. As I see the price action, I would like to see a rejection from 4400, followed by a retest of the support from where to take new liquidity and where I will also be a buyer.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by sfc95
Updated Top Based On 4103 BottomIf Primary wave 1 finally ended, this the preliminary path for the remainder of 2023. The ABC waves are based on common movement and duration if Primary wave 2 is 278 hours long and moves up 307 points which are the preliminary targets. Once Intermediate wave A ends, updates for B and C (same endpoint as Primary wave 2) should be available. These targets are almost too perfect to be the specific reversal points, but the reversals should exist in the highlighted zones. The percentage levels on the far right have not changed from the last analyst however, the end point in the final week of December is an adjustment based on the two extra days added to the end of Primary wave 1's analysis from Wednesday. Some good volatile trading ahead.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
9
📈 BTC vs. S&P500: Broken Correlation & The Next Big Move!🔥🔀💰Wishes for a nice month everyone and let's all pray for logic and Peace in the World.🌍 🎓 November has started with a bang, and we're seeing some interesting movements in the financial market. 📊 🔍 Observations: Bitcoin's Rollercoaster: BTC took a slight dip today, even after a splendid performance post the Federal Reserve announcement. 💸 Inverse Correlation Emerges: Historically, Bitcoin & S&P 500 moved hand in hand. But now? They're moving in opposite directions at times! 🔄 Past Patterns: Dive into 2018, 2019, and 2020, and you'll see this dance between BTC and S&P 500. Correlation breaks, then normalizes, and ultimately... BOOM! 🚀 A significant price movement ensues. 🤔 Thoughts: ChatGPT Insights: Looked up ChatGPT for more on this correlation break. Factors like market sentiment, liquidity, and micro events could be playing a role. Current Market Trend: Bitcoin's moving up while indices correct. What's next? We might see this correlation normalize soon. 🔄 The BIG Resistance: Keep an eye on Bitcoin as it approaches the major resistance level I've been talking about. This could be a pivotal point! 🔝 🔥 Hot Takes: Bitcoin: Feeling bullish! Major support lies around 34,000, and I'm optimistic about BTC reaching the 37,000 mark and beyond. 🚀 S&P 500: Spotted a significant resistance at 4,327. Bearish trends have been dominant since last year, but a break above this resistance could change the narrative. 🐻 vs 🐂 In conclusion, watch out for the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500. When it breaks and normalizes, it might just present a golden opportunity! 🌟 Keep observing, analyzing and take grown up decisions; stay vigilant, and remember to do risk management and have patience 💰 One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 link:
SP:SPX
by FX_Professor
SasanSeifi 💁‍♂ S&P Index 🔼4185 / 4220 / 4240 Hey there! In the 4-hour time frame, the S&P index, as observed, has shown positive reactions after a decline, starting from the range of 4100, and is currently trading around 4157. The expectation we can have in the 4-hour time frame is that, following this consolidation, we may witness growth towards the ranges of 4180 / 4220 / 4240. To better understand the continuation of this price movement, it's crucial to see how it reacts to the resistance ranges. There's a possibility of a rejection from these levels. Additionally, if it manages to penetrate above the supply zone and establish itself, the target range of 4300 can be considered. Maintaining the support range of 4100 is very important for the desired scenario 🔵Remember, always conduct your own analysis and consider other factors before making any trading decisions. Good luck!"✌️ ❎ (DYOR)...⚠️⚜️ Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help! if you found my analysis helpful, I would appreciate it if you could show your support by liking and commenting. Thank you!🙌
CAPITALCOM:US500
by SasanSeifi
Why Burry Bet Against the US MarketBurry has frequently expressed his views on Twitter (X), asserting that the market has not made a genuine recovery and is headed for a recession. He believes it's just a matter of time before we witness the ultimate impact. Many individuals consider Burry to be an extreme pessimist, contending that he consistently focuses on the negative aspects. However, in the lead-up to the 2008 market crash, people also criticized him for being overly pessimistic and opposed his ideas. The purpose of this post is to delve into his perspectives and examine some recent information I've been investigating in order to determine whether the market situation is indeed in line with his claims Who is Michael Burry? Michael Burry is a renowned American investor and former hedge fund manager. He gained widespread recognition for accurately predicting the 2008 financial crisis and profiting from it through his hedge fund, Scion Capital. Burry is also known for his contrarian investment style and is a proponent of value investing. His story is prominently featured in Michael Lewis's book, "The Big Short.” Today, we will examine data that reveals the current state of the American market. Through this data, we will learn to understand the reasons behind why the market may be weaker than it appears, despite all the hype and the notion that the American market has "recovered.” What’s Burry Concerns Economic Concerns: Despite positive stock market performance and GDP projections, Burry, along with other notable investors like Warren Buffett, sees potential issues in the global economy. Federal Reserve Actions: Burry and others believe this situation is unsustainable and may lead to economic stagnation next year, characterized by weak growth, rising inflation, and labor shortages. 1. Michael Burry said is Velocity is nominal GDP/Money Supply (M2 here). QT + higher rates starting to use M2 down. Yet we are seeing a tick up in velocity, emerging from narrative obscurity, In 1978-79, rising velocity trumped failing money supply to drive inflation higher and higher redux would shock Full Explanation: "Velocity" is like the speed at which money moves in the economy. Imagine money as a car. The car's speed (velocity) is how fast it's moving. "Nominal GDP" is the total value of goods and services produced in the economy. "M2" is a measure of the money supply, including things like cash, checking accounts, and savings accounts. Now, let's break it down: If the economy's car (money) is moving faster (velocity), it can boost economic growth (Nominal GDP). "QT" means Quantitative Tightening, which is when the central bank reduces the amount of money in the economy. "Higher rates" means they raise interest rates. When you reduce the amount of money (QT) and raise interest rates, the car (money) slows down (Velocity decreases). When you reduce the amount of money (QT) and raise interest rates, the car (money) slows down (Velocity decreases). Recently, we've seen the car (Velocity) speeding up, even though the central bank has been reducing money (QT) and increasing interest rates. In the late 1970s (1978-79), a similar thing happened. The car's speed (Velocity) became more important than the amount of money (Money Supply) in driving up prices (inflation). "Redux" means a repeat of something. So, the statement suggests that if we see a repeat of the 1978-79 situation, it would be surprising and could lead to higher inflation. In simple terms, it's like saying that even though the central bank is trying to slow down the economy by reducing money and raising interest rates, we're still seeing fast economic growth. This reminds us of a situation in the late 1970s when fast economic growth led to higher prices. If this happens again, it would be surprising and could cause inflation. 2.The second thing Burry believes is that there is a bubble in the housing market, similar to the one in 2008. Instructions chat above green (rising market) yellow (small drop market) Red (absolute bear market) He believes that housing prices are over inflated and that many homeowners are still carrying significant levels of debt he is warned that a housing market downturn could trigger a wave of default that would Ripple through the banking system and The Wider economy finally bury has expressed concern about the vulnerability of the banking system which he believes is over leveraged and under-capitalized he has warned that a wave of bank failures could trigger a major crisis similar to the 2008 financial crisis overall buries prediction that another major financial crisis is on the horizon. Explanation for chart above As you can see from the chart , we are not yet showing strong signs of a collapse like in 2008. However, there is a chain of signs that it is beginning to slow down and approach a potential downturn. When a higher time frame displays characteristics in yellow between red, there is a chance of an impending collapse. For now, we must treat this information as neutral and avoid letting our biases guide us. 3.The Third thing is Burry concern about the current state of the stock market. Instructions chat above green (rising market) yellow (small drop market) Red (absolute bear market) Bury has expressed concern about the current state of the stock market, the housing market, and the banking system, all of which he believes are overvalued and vulnerable to a major downturn. Burry has also expressed concern about the high levels of debt in the U.S. economy, which he believes are unsustainable and could trigger a major crisis. He has pointed to the rising levels of corporate and government debt, as well as the growing number of (companies that can only service their debt but not pay it down), as evidence of this. Burry has also expressed concern about the current state of the stock market, which he believes is again overvalued and driven by speculation rather than fundamentals. Explanation for chart above As you can see in the chart, the market has not yet fully recovered despite the recent increases in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. It's evident that the rally is weak compared to previous years. This analysis indicates a temporary market weakening, with no strong signs of a full recovery at the moment Let's now take a deeper dive into less visible yet crucial information. We'll focus on areas that require understanding their unusual aspects and the reasons behind them. What do I mean? To uncover something unusual, patience and extensive economic research are required. Through this process, we can discover intriguing insights that provide valuable context to the economic situation in the USA. For example, let's examine: a. M2 - MONEY SUPPLY In the graph, you'll notice something that hasn't occurred since 1963. With the help of a tool, we can observe periods of increase (green) and slight decrease (yellow), but no instances of absolute decrease (red). What does this signify? What's the context behind it? After conducting research, I found an explanation. I'm referring to: Financial Stress and Banking Issues: A sharp decline in M2 may indicate underlying financial stress or problems within the banking and financial sector. This is a significant reason as it highlights potential vulnerabilities in the financial system, which could have broader implications for the economy. It might prompt regulators and policymakers to address these issues to prevent a more severe crisis. Do you still find this unremarkable? Remember, this is just one perspective on the situation. b. Unemployment Rate It is crucial to examine the Unemployment Rate, and I've specifically focused on the Unemployment Rate in California. This is because, in the end, the fundamental Unemployment Rate tends to converge to a similar outcome. Currently, in the graph, we observe the color white, which indicates the start of an uptick in unemployment, representing slow growth. White denotes a slow growth momentum or a potentially deceptive rally. Therefore, it's important to note that we have not yet reached the green phase, which signifies a definite increase in the Unemployment Rate. Historically, every time the Unemployment Rate has turned green, it has been followed by an economic downturn. it is essential to remain vigilant. If the Unemployment Rate continues to rise steadily, it may lead to economic stress. On the other hand, if M2 money supply is shrinking or experiencing volatility while the Unemployment Rate is increasing, it points to economic stress and potential issues. A declining money supply reflects reduced liquidity, making it harder for businesses to access capital for growth and causing financial stress. Simultaneously, a rising Unemployment Rate indicates that more people are struggling to secure jobs, further straining the economy. This situation can result in reduced consumer spending, decreased investment, and heightened economic uncertainty, potentially contributing to a market downturn or recession. c. Gold Investors Currently, there's something intriguing happening among certain investors worldwide. Over the past few months, some investors have been stockpiling gold. Since March 2023, gold has displayed a (green) signal, indicating a bullish trend. This suggests that people have been accumulating gold from March until now, similar to the trend seen in 2003. It's possible that some investors perceive the market as risky and view gold as a safety net. However, it's important to note that there can be instances of deception, as seen in 2016 and 2017 when gold turned green but didn't perform significantly and even dropped by 10 percent on three occasions. Such situations occur periodically and not consistently. For instance, investors also purchased gold from 2019 until the end of 2021 (despite the significant impact of COVID-19 starting in 2020), indicating that some investors can spot signs ahead of time. There are more examples from the past. Hence, it's fascinating to closely monitor recent developments in the gold market to see if it can break records or experiences setbacks like in 2016-2017. There are many more examples, but I will stop here. The purpose of this post is to emphasize that thinking outside the box is often more fruitful. Instead of sticking to a linear approach, gather as much information as possible, seek connections between two factors, then three, and continue to cross-reference vast datasets. By effectively cross-referencing, we enhance our ability to assess probabilities and reduce uncertainty. This reflects my personal viewpoint. I observe that the market has reached a plateau in the SP500, NASDAQ, and most markets. There is a possibility that this is a temporary phase, or it may indicate an impending decline. My focus is on monitoring real-time data and responding accordingly, rather than attempting to predict the future. Whenever I perceive the market as (red), I take action. Likewise, when I see it as (green), I take action. Ultimately, my goal is to remain adaptable and respond to prevailing market conditions. In the future, I will continue to provide updates in the event of shifts in market conditions, inflation, new data, and additional information. This will contribute to assembling a comprehensive puzzle that offers clarity on the overall situation.
SP:SPX
by BlackMammoth
1
Boeing Company: The Underpressured PathBoeing results topped analyst expectations Wednesday thanks to a pickup in commercial aircraft deliveries as the manufacturer increases production, but losses in its defense and space businesses drove the manufacturer into the red for the quarter. The company generated $2.6 billion of free cash flow in the second quarter, ahead of analyst forecasts, and reiterated its full-year guidance of between $3 billion and $5 billion of free cash flow. Boeing shares surged 12.70% just in a week, and closed on Friday at $238.69, the stock’s highest closing price since November 2021. Here’s how the company performed during the period ended June 30, compared with Refinitiv consensus estimates: 👉 Adjusted loss per share: 82 cents vs. 88 cents. 👉 Revenue: $19.75 billion vs. $18.45 billion 👉 Boeing and main rival Airbus have both struggled to increase aircraft production in the wake of the Covid pandemic as some airlines face longer waits for new jets, just as travel demand rebounds. The company delivered 136 planes in the second quarter, up from 121 aircraft during the same period last year. Meanwhile just a take a look what historically happened with Boeing stocks, almost every time after 10+ percent weekly advance. In simple words - that's been a flat, or even more than 10 percent decline. Technical picture indicates that Bearish trend still is in power in NYSE:BA stocks, and 5yrs SMA is still a huge resistance.
NYSE:BA
by Pandorra
8
Two Large Rallies Before the Bottom Falls Out in 2024If Primary 1 finished today, it hit the forecasted mark from here: And here: The original call for the end of Primary wave 1 ending in October was here (August 2 idea #1): However, I knew the bottom of Primary 1 would be a little later than the initial forecast once Intermediate wave 1 was late in hitting the mark. The initial forecast for the end of Primary wave 1 was based on the theory the complete bear market would end between August 2024 and April 2025. Based on 6 likely end locations (from relational data based on Cycle wave A and B behaviors), I back calculated what each Primary wave would have to do to achieve this movement which were the pink boxes in this idea (August 2 idea #2): Basically waves 1-5 fulfill a particular amount of the overall wave’s length and movement and I took first and second sigma values to determine the range. From those pink boxes I estimated Primary wave 1’s likely end location if the final market bottom occurred in September 2024. Primary wave 1 should end around October 5, 2023 to hit this final market bottom. From this date, I back calculated what Intermediate wave 1 should do to hit this target as outlined in the first August 2 chart above. Once Intermediate wave 1 finished a week after the first estimate, I figured Primary wave 1 must be at least a week and a day later than planned. Once Primary wave 1 ended, I can then go back to the idea with the pink boxes to make the first assumptions about the final market endpoint in late 2024 or Q1 2025. Based on the end of Primary 1 occurring after the right side (outside) of the first two boxes, the end should occur after September 2024. Based on the movement occurring above the top of the sixth box, the market top should occur above 2733. The furthest end point in April 2025 is less likely with the drop not occurring below 2733 and it is also ruled out. The current forecast for the market bottom is between September 23, 2024 and March 30, 2025 likely in the range of 2878.89-3183.44. I am leaning more toward the date of the 2024 election, possibly the day results are finalized. These values will change and likely narrow as each subsequent wave is completed over the next 12 months until the final target is fairly precise like the current bottom called out today. With these updated forecasts in mind, it is time to make the first projections for Primary wave 2’s end location. Pre-estimate was early- to mid-December last week. The current projection is between December 12, 2023 and January 2, 2024. Most models keep the end point before the end of year holiday weeks but more data should clean up the date. The models are much stronger with large agreement in a tight window between 4460-4480. The secondary window and more conservative target is a top between 4420-4450. These are determined based on the below methodology. The derivative model does not provide values for waves 1-2 and A-B. The Intermediate wave A and B endpoints are nominally placed and not currently based on calculations (do not expect them to be official/accurate). The overall path to the bottom looks like: METHODOLOGY: I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. Derivative models take the annotated waves from the above methodology and compare specific ratioed-relationships to predict future movement based off of smallest standard deviations in processed models. ***Currently in beta testing to determine efficacy***
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
The 1.2 and 1.2 pattern and the bull market continues! Think Greetings, dear friends. I hope you are having a productive week. I am happy to assist you in ensuring that all previous analyses are attached to each corresponding analysis. This will provide a comprehensive overview and help you make well-informed decisions. Please do not hesitate to let me know if there is anything else I can do to assist you further. I want to share my market analysis ideas based on the Elliott Wave Principle with you. I am a fan of this principle and follow all the rules and guidelines for analyzing the market. However, please note that my ideas are based on my personal experience and may change over time. If there is an error in my analysis, I am open to re-analyzing it from the beginning and learning from my mistakes. It's important to understand that making an error in analysis is not a fault, but evading responsibility is. No one can analyze financial markets with 100% accuracy, but it's remarkable how close we can get. We analyze from multiple perspectives to consider all possibilities. Let's mention a few opinions and ideas! Based on mathematics. I am still practicing to understand the Elliott Wave Principle better and hope to provide an even better analysis in the future. Thank you for your continued support, and I look forward to our mutual success. Best regards, Mr. Nobody Keep trying and never give up. Good luck!
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by mehdi47abbasi79
Nasdaq Bank Index: Putting A Bad Hair Day Into PerspectiveElon Musk still sees danger ahead for the US economy if the Fed does not contain the regional banking crisis. Financial blog Zero Hedge previously tweeted about the critical role of small and medium-sized banks in the US financial system — a hot topic following the sharp collapse this month of Silicon Valley Bank, a technology startup lender and the first bank to be taken over by regulators since the 2008 financial crisis. Small and medium banks account for 50% of commercial and industrial lending and 60% of residential real estate lending, among other loans, notes Zero Hedge with accompanying charts. “If the Fed does not contain the collapse of regional banks, there will be another Great Depression,” it wrote, referring to the economic crisis that lasted from 1929 to 1939. "This is a serious risk," Musk replied to Zero Hedge. According to the US Department of Labor, in 1933, at the height of the Great Depression, approximately 25% of the 12.8 million people in the US labor force were unemployed. This wasn't the first time Musk had intervened on his social media about the collapse of the SVB. Last week, he compared the bank failure to the Wall Street crash of the 1920s that preceded the Great Depression. "There are a lot of similarities this year with 1929," Tesla CEO said in response to a post from Ark Invest' Cathy Wood. Nasdaq Bank Index BSE:BANK includes securities of companies listed on the NASDAQ that are classified under the industry classification benchmark as banks. These include banks that provide a wide range of financial services, including retail banking, loans and money transfers. On February 5, 1971, the underlying NASDAQ Bank Index was 100 points.
NASDAQ:BANK
by Pandorra
5
S&P500 - Long; For now ...This naturally rimes with the Nasdaq signals and with the overall global equities outlook. Here, two opposing forces are the most significant factor; 1) The unfolding (and enduring!) USD strength - Downward pressure ; 2) The massive, continuously inbound (to US) capital flows , primarily from Europe - Upward pressure . Driven by the rapidly unraveling globalization (driven by a Europe which the US decided to turn into a bonfire that is now clearly visible from Alpha-Centauri, and a China which is dying of old age as the demographic apocalypse is hitting hard this year - 2023), these fundamental forces will likely make this year one for the records - especially when it comes index (equities) trading. Many, many trading opportunities to be expected, throughout this year, probably far more than in other periods. Laissez le bon temp roule!! ...
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Nemo_Confidat
8