SOXL
SMH about to breakoutSMH (the Geek) was resting in the small 4 day week moving laterally but was ready to breakdown on Thursday. But the jobs numbers on Friday being moderately light vs expectations made one more month of positive news for the market signaling "transitory" inflation. That was the turning point as mentioned in my last weeks report. An engulfing candle on Friday and an uptrend MACD makes this extremely bullish. After Fridays action, I see Geek moving higher as 3/4 of the stocks in the group got pummeled way under 21 day ema. This put those stocks this coming week trading above 8 day ema at least. Its possible that it can rest here for a couple of days as well.
SOX, SMH needs to hold hereTheres a saying that SEMIs lead the market. $SMH finally broke an upper band trendline that took alot of work to do because of very little volume. Its tired and wants to rest. This is an important test but bids need to come back. Will June be the month when buyers pile back in? My gut tells me we hit 252 this week then break down again or at least stay above the band. Stocks that had great earnings but got slaughtered will do well. $SMH will be range bound till July earnings.
SOXL Upward - How Far?There's a nice downward channel, and we just bottomed.
I'm expecting a rise to at least the 30m 200SMA then we'll see.
Upward and breakout is my hope.
Upward and back to bottom of channel is a strong possibility.
The channel is essentially a megaphone. When she breaks we run.
*NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR*
SQ classic ABCD pattern with strong earnings will test 275 againSQ has been hammered along with the rest of tech/semi/fintech for the past 2 weeks. With IWM classic bounce off upward trend line with volume and SOXX reversal due to oversold conditions, I can see tech and semi bounce this week for a bull run back to highs. Energy money will flow back to tech while it rests due to overbought conditions and job numbers being abysmal this past Friday. Be cautious of Dow and S&P, it needs to rest but not get sold to maintain uptrend.
SOXL 3X Semi - Unusual Volume $2M+ traded for $42 strikeAMEX:SOXL $2M+ in premium traded for $42 strike calls for Friday May 21th 2021 expiration traded today.
Unusual Options Volume Activity for $80 calls about 9000+ contracts traded through out the day (Above Open interest of only 1162) from $2.10 to $2.50
Various semi conductor stock earnings coming up soon.
Bounced off 50 EMA Today on the daily showing downside support. CCI is also trending up going from bearish to bullish after being sold through out the day.
Nice hammer on the 4H chart
A Months time on these options I would recommend a vertical spread to keep theta at bay.
Wait for confirmation of break of the $40.00 level for upward trend and possibly a close above this level to start a position.
Enter using $40 or $41 calls around trigger as theta burn will be less once ITM. Or consider a vertical.
Exercise caution when entering 3X ETF as they tend to move rapidly to the down side on any pullback.
Support 50 EMA $38.55
Trigger $40.00
Target 41.44, 42.44, stretch target of 43.45
SL close below 50 EMA
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SOXL Long Swing TradeBUY signal for SOXL all day last Friday, with a nice dip intraday to provide a buying opportunity.
SELL on first red heiken ashi candle.
TP1 is about 6% or $720, where I'll take of 25% of the position if that is hit.
TP2 @ 8%/$733 (25% of position)
TP3 @10%/$747 (25% of position)
Strategy Statistics from backtest since SOXL conception (no take profits)
Win%: 56%
Avg Win: 7.3%
Avg Loss: 4.65%
R:R: 1.58
My fans have asked and I am responding: semiconductors at limitSomeone asked me about semi-conductors recently because they had (apparently) gone exponential. Well, not quite. I think in response to the election news the past few sessions had been good but going back you can see that its been trading in a fairly predictable range. I can't comfortably call this exponential until it breaks above the overhead resistance and we all know what needs (*ahem) for that to happen (and given the recounts necessary in Georgia and Wisconsin, although Biden will be declared victor the markets will not like the lack of finality and the inevitable road blocks that will be put up by Trump). The other interesting thing is that SOXL is in a very wide long ascending triangle which more often than not tends to break down. More adventurous people could put a small short play into place.
Breakdown of Semiconductors Simple view of this critical sector breaking through key technical trendlines.
Our first bearish sign was the break earlier in August, which held, and rallied back above the original broken trendline. That quickly stopped as momentum ran out, and it's now breaking through multiple trendlines with bulls at max long. This can potentially fall significantly given the overweight bullish positioning and the stretched overbought price.