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Gold trading trends and strategies todayFocusing on technical analysis, XAU/USD retains a bullish outlook, although its upward journey may encounter temporary setbacks. This means there could be transient pullbacks in the uptrend, especially if overbought conditions are reached. We are not there yet, but the 14-day RSI indicator is heading in that direction, In terms of major levels to watch, resistance looms at $2,050. On further strength, the focus shifts to May’s peak near $2,075. Previous attempts to breach this barrier on a sustained basis have been unsuccessful, so history could repeat itself on a retest. However, if a decisive breakout materializes, a rally toward the 2023 swing high becomes a realistic prospect. On the other hand, if upside momentum wanes and sellers spark a reversal, the first line of defense against a bearish attack appears at $2,010. Maintaining this floor is crucial; a failure to do so could reinforce downward pressure, exposing trendline support near $1,990. Below this threshold, all eyes will be on the 50-day simple moving average. TVC:GOLD SELL 2038 - 2040 ✔️TP1: 2033 ✔️TP2: 2028 🚫SL: 2048
TVC:GOLDShort
by TinaTradingGold
Gold trading ideasGold rose to around $2,030 an ounce on Thursday, hitting its strongest levels in a week as the dollar and Treasury yields weakened sharply after the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and signaled three rate cuts in 2024. Fed officials expect to lower rates by 75 basis points in 2024, more aggressive than indicated in September’s projections, and forecast softer inflation this year and next. Markets are now pricing in a more than 70% chance of a Fed rate cut in March next year. Investors now look ahead to policy decisions from other major central banks including the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. OANDA:XAUUSD SELL 2038 - 2036 ✔️TP1: 2033 ✔️TP2: 2028 🚫SL: 2041
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TinaTradingGold
EURUSD is trending downThe Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates on hold in a decision at 1900 GMT, and how the dollar moves afterward will depend on whether policymakers counter recent growing expectations for rate cuts next year, UniCredit Research analysts say in a note. UniCredit doesn't expect the Fed to "push back firmly against recent market expectations of aggressive rate cuts," which means EUR/USD could stabilize above 1.08. However, if the Fed suggests rate-cut expectations are overdone, the DXY dollar index should rally further above 104 and EUR/USD would retreat, albeit likely staying above 1.07, UniCredit says. EUR/USD trades flat at 1.0790 while the DXY rises 0.1% to 103.924.
Short
by TinaTradingGold
Today's gold trading strategyGold was subdued around $1,980 an ounce on Wednesday, holding near its lowest levels in three weeks as investors cautiously awaited the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The US central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady, but traders will focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary amid bets of rate cuts in the first half of 2024. Still, a robust US jobs report and upside risks to inflation could prompt policymakers to take a less dovish stance than what market participants anticipate. Meanwhile, data released on Tuesday showed that US consumer inflation figures for November came largely in line with forecasts. Investors also look ahead to monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England on Thursday. OANDA:XAUUSD XAUUSD BUY 1977 - 1975 ✔️TP1: 1982 ✔️TP2: 1987 🚫SL: 1970
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TinaTradingGold
EURUSD is likely to rise againThe Indian rupee opened marginally higher on December 12 tracking gains in local equity and Asian currencies. At 9.10am, the home currency was trading at 83.37 a dollar, up 0.03 percent from its previous close of 83.39. Traders awaiting CPI and IIP data due later today. India's headline inflation rate likely jumped to 5.8 percent in November from October's 4.87 percent, according to a Moneycontrol survey of 15 economists, with an unfavourable base effect and resurgence in prices of vegetables and pulses propelling inflation to a three-month high. Follow our market blog to catch all the live updates Recent US economic data surpassed expectations, showcasing a drop in unemployment claims from 3.9 percent to 3.7 percent. Non-farm payrolls hit 199K and average hourly earnings rose by 0.4 percent, outperforming projections. As a result, expectations for rate cuts in March and May decreased to 43 percent and 76 percent from 63 percent and 85 percent respectively. Attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy, with signs pointing towards the Fed taking the lead in rate-cut initiatives, traders said. Asian currencies were trading higher. Japanese yen was up 0.38 percent, Thai Baht rose 0.23 percent, China Offshore 0.12 percent, Singapore dollar 0.1 percent, South Korean won and Philippines peso 0.08 percent each. The dollar index, which measures the US currency’s strength against major currencies, was trading at 104.0032, down 0.09 percent from its previous close of 104.095.Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Long
by TinaTradingGold
Gold trading ideas todayThere was little oscillation during the Asian session last Friday. After ascending to $2034, gold plummeted below $2000 after the employment data was released. Moreover, gold once reached $1995, and then rebounded above $2000 after gaining support, ending the two consecutive gains with a big bearish candle, and returning to a weak pattern. At present, gold fell from highs and lost the previous gain in the weekly chart, indicating a downward bearish signal. Nonetheless, gold showed an oversold pattern in the 1H chart, and the MACD located at the oversold area to form a golden cross, suggesting a possible rebound in the 1H chart today. Thus, investors should focus on the resistance near $2009, and aggressive investors can go short with small positions there. Today, the trading range will be from $1986 to $2009, in which investors can buy low and sell high. TVC:GOLD XAUUSD SELL 1996 - 1998 - 2000 ✔️TP: 1086 🚫SL: 2005
TVC:GOLDShort
by TinaTradingGold
EURUSD tends to decrease when it meets support and will increaseEUR/USD rallied vigorously last month, but has sold off in recent days, with prices slipping and closing below the 200-day moving average last week – a bearish technical event. If the pair deepens its pullback in the coming days, a retest of the 50-day SMA could come any minute. Continued weakness may shift focus towards trendline support near 1.0620. Conversely, if EUR/USD stages a turnaround and charges higher, technical resistance is visible near 1.0820, but further gains could be in store on a push above this threshold, with the next area of interest at 1.0960, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July/October decline. Continued strength may catalyze a retest of November’s highs.
Short
by TinaTradingGold
Gold broke the upward price channel and tended to decreaseGold edges higher in the early morning Asian session in a likely position adjustment, with focus on U.S. CPI data and the FOMC meeting this week. The precious metal is still holding above $2,000/oz, a key short-term support level, Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and forex.com, says in an email. Gold has to hold this level in order to sustain its recent bullish bias, Razaqzada says. Otherwise, there could be a deeper retracement, with subsequent major support in the $1,950/oz area, which includes the 200-day average, Razaqzada adds. Spot gold is up 0.1% at $2,006.58/oz. OANDA:XAUUSD XAUUSD SELL 2008 - 2010,2018-2020 ✔️TP1: 2003 ✔️TP2: 1998 🚫SL: 2025
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TinaTradingGold
Today's gold trading ideaYesterday, gold prices edged higher to $2036 in the Asian session and then fell rapidly to around $2017. After gaining support, gold prices rebounded to around $2025 and finally closed with a small bull candle, which also ended the 2 consecutive declines. The market began to stabilize. Investors who want to go short need to be cautious and should not chase the market to sell low. Instead, they should go short with small positions after a rebound. At the daily level, as the MACD formed a death cross at a high level, the retreat is still not over. However, a golden cross is likely to show in the 4-hour chart. If gold can rebound to around $2052 and form a local head and shoulders top pattern, perhaps the daily pullback will be smoother. The upper edge of volatility range should be higher today. The resistance is near $2041, with further resistance at the shoulder position of $2052. Today's reference trading range is $2017-$2041, and aggressive traders can buy low and sell high in the range. ❌❌❌: Close all orders when there is news. OANDA:XAUUSD XAUUSD SELL 2038 - 2040 ✔️TP1: 2033 ✔️TP2: 2028 🛑SL: 2045
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TinaTradingGold
EURUSD is likely to fall, touching supportThe euro EURUSD inched 0.07% lower to $1.0757, its lowest point since Nov. 14. The single currency is down 1% this week and is on course for the steepest weekly decline since May. Traders are betting that there is about an 85% chance that the ECB cuts interest rates at the March meeting, with almost 150 basis points' worth of easing priced by the end of next year. The question of a rate cut could emerge in 2024, ECB member and Bank of France head Francois Villeroy de Galhau told a French paper in an interview published on Wednesday. Villeroy said that "disinflation is happening more quickly than we thought". The ECB will set interest rates on Thursday next week and is all but certain to leave them at the current record high of 4%, although the focus will be on comments from officials about rates outlook. A slim majority of economists in a Reuters poll expect the ECB to cut rates in the second quarter of next year, earlier than previously thought, with a new tug of war on the exact timing of the first cut emerging. The dollar has found its footing this month after a 3% drop in November as traders ramp up rate cut bets for other central banks.
Short
by TinaTradingGold
GBPUSD has an upward trendGBP/USD fell on Tuesday, extending its drop for a second consecutive day after failing to clear a key ceiling near 1.2720, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July/October slump. Should losses deepen this week, it is important to watch how prices behave around the 1.2590-1.2570 support zone, bearing in mind that a breakdown could expose the 200-day simple moving average. Conversely, if cable manages to rebound from current levels, technical resistance is positioned at 1.2720. Cementing the underlying bullish outlook requires the pair to take out this hurdle on daily closing prices, with a decisive breakout likely to draw fresh buyers into the market and foster conditions conducive to a rally above 1.2800.
Long
by TinaTradingGold
Gold trading strategy todayYesterday, gold prices saw an inverted deep V-shape reversal. Gold prices surged sharply higher in morning trading, hitting an all-time high of 2145. Subsequently, they fluctuated downwards, stopped falling around 2020, and finally closed with a full bear candle with a long upper shadow. At this point, the gold price trend has also shown signs of a top, forming a bearish piercing pattern. At the same time, the signs of bearish divergence have not changed. The MACD indicator on the daily chart is in the overbought area and tends to form a death cross. But judging from the hourly chart, after yesterday's plunge, the MACD indicator has entered the oversold area and has formed a golden cross. During the day, gold prices may rebound at the hourly level, and the specific strength of the rebound depends on the momentum. Investors could temporarily expect a slight rebound in the Asian session, and strong resistance is in the 2050 area where we can enter short positions. The first support level is around $2020, and further support is at $2010. The reference trading range today is 2010-2050, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high and pay attention to controlling losses. TVC:GOLD XAUUSD BUY 2008 - 2006 ✔️TP1: 2014 ✔️TP2: 2018 🚫SL: 2003
TVC:GOLD
by TinaTradingGold
EURUSD is trending downEUR/USD rallied vigorously in November, but has started to retrace some of that advance in recent days, with bearish pressure easing as prices tested the 200-day simple moving average. It is important for bulls to defend this technical indicator, which currently symbolizes support; a failure to do so could result in a decline toward 1.0765, followed by 1.0650. On the flip side, if the common currency regains the upper hand against the greenback and stages a meaningful comeback, technical resistance looms at 1.0960 – the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July/October decline. Sustained strength could lead to revisiting November's peak, followed by a move towards horizontal resistance at 1.1080 upon a breakout.
Short
by TinaTradingGold
GBPUSD tends to increase againGBPUSD failed to find acceptance above the 1.2700 mark on a daily timeframe, spending the best part of 5 days attempting to break higher. Having printed a fresh high however, the pair was in line for a retracement which has been facilitated by a return in US Dollar Strength. The question now will be whether we can push on toward the 1.2500 handle and beyond? There are some mixed signals being thrown up at present, we have just had a golden cross pattern play out as we have the 20-day MA crossing above the 100 and 200-day MAs hinting at bullish momentum. This is in contrast to the candlesticks with GBPUSD on course for a bearish engulfing close which could hint at further downside ahead tomorrow. This sets us up for an interesting day of price action ahead and one which may require a nimble approach to find worthwhile opportunities.
Long
by TinaTradingGold
Today's gold trading strategyGold pulled up quickly in the European and U.S. sessions after falling from $2049 to $2033 in the Asian session, once reached $2075 and approached the historical high. Many significant positions are accumulated to prepare the new high for this morning. Moreover, stop-loss orders were removed in the morning session and gold once ascended to $2145 by over $70. Although it is unreasonable, the market should be respected, and gold retraced by $60 immediately. Regarding the trend, gold should keep the bullish trend, and the previous high of $2081 will be turned from resistance to support. Despite a serious bearish divergence in the daily chart and the weekly chart, the top and bottom are still to be decided until the unilateral trend is broken. At present, after falling from highs, the wash trading is enough, and investors should not chase the upward trend even if they keep a bullish view. Additionally, gold may oscillate at highs or even consolidate with a retracement at the beginning of this week, and the essential factor to be considered is the Nonfarm Payrolls. According to the 1H chart, MACD forms a death cross at the overbought area, and there will be retracements today. Meanwhile, the initial support below will be in the range from $2070 to $2080, when further strong support will be at $2050. For trading recommendations, the effective range will start from $2050 to $2100, in which investors could buy low and sell high, and control the stop loss. TVC:GOLD BUY XAUUSD 2012-2010 ✔️TP1 2020 ✔️TP2 2025 ❌SL 2005
TVC:GOLD
by TinaTradingGold
GBPUSD is trending downGBP/USD has risen sharply over the past three weeks, logging solid gains that have coincided with a shift in favor of riskier currencies at the expense of the broader U.S. dollar. After recent price developments, cable is flirting with overhead resistance at 1.2720, defined by the 61.8% Fib retracement of the July/October selloff. If the bulls manage to clear this ceiling, a rally potentially exceeding 1.2800 might unfold. Conversely, if bullish impetus fades and sellers start to regain the upper hand, we may see a retrenchment towards 1.2590. GBP/USD could stabilize around this technical floor on a pullback before resuming its advance, but a break below the region could intensify bearish pressure, opening the door for a decline towards trendline support and the 200-day moving average slightly above 1.2460.
Short
by TinaTradingGold
1
According to technical analysis, gold will increaseGold jumped more than 3% to above $2,100 early on Monday before paring those gains, hitting fresh all-time highs amid growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at this month’s meeting and could start cutting rates next year. Traders also doubled down on those bets despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s pushback against rate-cut expectations, saying it’s “premature” to anticipate policy easing. Markets now see a 60% chance that the US central bank could reduce its policy rate in March next year and are fully pricing in a cut in May. On the data front, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in below estimates in November, pointing to the 13th consecutive contraction in the factory activity and supporting the softer rate outlook. Additionally, the latest US PCE inflation reading indicated a slowdown in prices, while continuing jobless claims reached a two-year high. OANDA:XAUUSD BUY XAUUSD 2080-2078-2075 ✔️TP1 2085 ✔️TP2 2090 ❌SL 2070
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TinaTradingGold
GBPUSD tends to decrease when it encounters resistanceThe British pound has been heavily influenced but the US dollar of recent with investors becoming less hawkish on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. Recent weaker US economic data has prompted such an outlook alongside some dovish Fed commentary. During yesterday’s US trading session, the 2nd estimate on US GDP surprised to the upside but the market remained firm on it’s bearish USD viewpoint after the Fed Beige book revealed slowing economic growth and softening prices that will likely extend through to 2024. Money markets have since priced in 115bps of cumulative rate cuts by the Fed by December 2024. The focal point for the week has always been the upcoming core PCE price index (see economic calendar below) which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Should actual data fall in line with forecasts, the pound may well find additional support. Jobless claims will also be scrutinized to see whether or not recent labor market weakness continues or was just a blip in what has been a robust part of the US economy.
Short
by TinaTradingGold
EURUSD is likely to fall to the bottom of the rising price channThe euro fell 0.17% versus the dollar to $1.0973 EURUSD, pressured by inflation data from Germany showing price growth slowed to 2.3% year-on-year in November from 3% in October. Inflation in Spain also slowed sharply. The euro zone-wide inflation figure is due out on Thursday, before the Fed's preferred measure of U.S. inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, or PCE, is released. The market's fixation on inflation will likely shift to labor data as the degree of the economic slowdown takes precedence over the pace of decelerating prices, Upadhyaya said. "Now the labor market is going be the big focus because it's the statistic that could lead to a Fed pivot from a pause to a cut," he said.
Short
by TinaTradingGold
1
Today's gold trading strategyGold edges higher in the early morning Asian session, underpinned by prospects of Fed rate cuts next year, which would increase the appeal of the non-interest-bearing precious metal. Treasury yields have stayed under pressure following Fed governor Waller's comments earlier this week that monetary policy is well-positioned to return inflation to a 2% target, ANZ Research analysts say in a report. A JPMorgan Chase survey shows investors are increasingly positioning for a hard economic landing and aggressive Fed policy easing next year, the analysts note. Spot gold is 0.1% higher at $2,045.45/oz. XAUUSD SELL 2048 - 2051 🟢TP1: 2042 🟢TP2: 2038 🔴SL: 2053 XAUUSD BUY 2027 - 2025 🟢TP1: 2032 🟢TP2: 2037 🔴SL: 2020
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TinaTradingGold
GBPUSD has a downward trendGBP/USD has been on a bullish tear in November, rising nearly 4.5% since the beginning of the month. After Tuesday's gains, the pair has reached its best level since late August, but has been unable to reclaim the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July/October slump (1.2720). If this ceiling holds, the upside momentum could run out of steam, paving the way for a drop towards 1.2590, followed by 1.2460. In the event of a clear break above 1.2720, sentiment on sterling is likely to improve, unleashing animal spirits that could propel a potential upward move towards 1.2850. On further strength, buying interest could accelerate, opening the door to a climb toward the 1.3000 handle. Although the bullish case for GBP/USD is strong, it is important to exercise caution as the pair is about to enter overbought territory
Short
by TinaTradingGold
EUR/USD is trending downEUR/USD extended its advance on Tuesday, clearing Fibonacci resistance at 1.0960 and rising to its best mark in more than three months. If the pair holds onto recent gains and establishes a support base near 1.0960, there's a possibility of an upward push towards 1.1080 following a period of consolidation. Should bullish momentum persist, attention could turn to the 2023 highs near 1.1275. In case of a downward shift from current levels, it is imperative to closely monitor price action around 1.0960, bearing in mind that a breach of this technical zone could send the exchange rate towards 1.0840. On further weakness, we could witness a retreat towards the 200-day simple moving average, located slightly above confluence support near 1.0760.
Short
by TinaTradingGold