THE KOG REPORT - FOMC THE KOG REPORT – FOMC
This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price.
For this FOMC we have the following key levels which need to be monitored and can be used for potential spikes. 2630-25 support, which is too close to target from here could give us that push upside into the higher levels of 2650-55 and above that 2660-65. It’s that higher region we will want to be watching closely for a potential RIP and opportunity to then short back down as shown on the chart. Immediate levels are no good to us here if there is exaggerated volume in the markets on the release, or the press conference 30mins after.
On the flip, if we continue the move downside breaking through the 2630 level we will be looking lower, 2610 as the point of interest but the extension of the move into the 2590-95 region is where we will want to be to waiting for the RIP and potential opportunities to then long back up.
Simple one this time, if we don’t get the levels, we want we’ll stay out of it and come back tomorrow to look for a decent set up.
Our bias target at 2667 still remains so please play caution.
RED BOXES:
Break above 2640 for 2650, 2660 and above that 2668
Break below 2625 for 2610, 2596
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As always, trade safe.
KOG
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Silver Rebound Offers Short Trade Potential: Targeting $28In my weekend analysis, I highlighted the potential formation of a Head and Shoulders pattern in Silver's price, with the neckline positioned precisely at the psychologically significant $30 level.
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve’s rate cut triggered a drop below this key level. Currently, OANDA:XAGUSD is experiencing a normal rebound.
This rebound may provide traders with an opportunity to consider short positions if the broken $30 level is retested.
The next significant support level is at $28, which could serve as the target for this potential move.
Lingrid | EURUSD Bearish Momentum Persists. ShortFX:EURUSD dropped after the news was released and is now pulling back toward the resistance zone. The price is slowing down and forming rejection candles, indicating a potential reversal at this resistance zone. On the 1H chart, the price is showing an ABCD pullback pattern. Given the bearish sentiment, I believe the market might continue to move downward. I expect a pullback to the resistance zone around 1.04300 before the bearish trend resumes. My goal is support zone around 1.03260
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Lingrid | TRXUSDT buying Opportunity from the SUPPORT zoneThe price perfectly fulfilled my last idea. It hit the target level. The recent sell-off in the entire crypto market, led by BTC, had a significant impact on altcoins as well. BINANCE:TRXUSDT has pulled back toward a key support level and the upper border of an upward channel. A fake break of the round number at 0.300 suggests that there was not enough strength for the price to maintain momentum above this level, leading to a rollback. With the price now having rebounded off the trendline and the support level around 0.250, there is potential for a recovery. If the support holds, I expect the market to slowly move upward toward the resistance zones. My goal is resistance zone around 0.2880
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From Decline to Opportunity: Total3 Poised for RecoveryAfter breaking below the critical $1.04T support level yesterday, Total3 experienced a sharp decline, finding its footing at a key horizontal support level.
This drop coincided with many altcoins also reaching their respective support zones. For traders, this presented an attractive opportunity to enter the market at more favorable prices, effectively halting the downward momentum.
Currently, the chart shows a promising reversal forming. As long as this horizontal support level holds, there is a strong likelihood of continued upward movement, potentially paving the way for a new all-time high.
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Short to support area 5846.5.Colleagues, I assume that price is completing a five-wave upward movement. I believe that the price may reach the resistance area of 6181.6 then I will consider only downward movement in correction to the area of 5846.5.
It is possible that the price will immediately start moving towards this area, but this is a more risky plan.
Still, I would like to see the completion of all waves “5” in one place!
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Lingrid | GOLD Weekly Market Technical AnalysisThe recent movement in the OANDA:XAUUSD market indicates a period of consolidation after the initial upward momentum and the following pullback suggests that the market may not yet be ready to continue rising. It is important to note that the market is still trading within the range of the previous monthly candle. If you look at the last few months of the previous years you will notice that the market has usually been in sideways movement. This may be what is happening in the current market.
On the weekly timeframe, the market has formed a long-tailed bar, which resembles a fakey bar reversal pattern. This indicates that the price made a false breakout above the two previous weekly highs. Such a pattern suggests the possibility of the price moving below last month’s low towards the support level around 2530.
On the daily timeframe, the price action is showing lower highs and higher lows, thus creating a triangle pattern. This pattern is typically viewed as a trend continuation pattern. However, due to the fakey pattern on the weekly, there is a likelihood that the price may move lower. Overall, I anticipate that the price to fall if the market breaks below the weekly low at 2,627. Additionally, with next week packed with high impact news expected to increase volatility, it is crucial for us to remain vigilant.
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Lingrid | GOLD Potential Channel BREAKOUT. ShortOANDA:XAUUSD is moving sideways after the recent bearish momentum, forming small range candles which means a pause before the next move. Based on the current behavior, I think the market may initially move above the previous day's high before turning lower towards the support level at 2600. Additionally, the price is testing a global upward trendline that I noted in my previous forecasts. If the upcoming news does not alter the short-term market direction, I expect the price to gain bearish momentum as it approaches the support level. My goal is support zone around 2606
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Lingrid | EURCAD Divergence At the Strong RESISTANCE zoneThe price perfectly fulfilled my last idea. It hit the target. FX:EURCAD made upward extension, moving above the psychological level at 1.5000. On the daily timeframe, the price has reached a strong resistance zone, which may trigger a price rebound as sellers start to step in. On the 1H timeframe, there is a bearish divergence that reinforces this bearish outlook. I expect the market to move below the psychological level. Additionally, the market formed a ABCD move and after the completion usually the markets pull back. Therfore I expect a short term pullback. My goal is support zone around 1.49525
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Trading Silver: Sell Rallies Amid XAG/USD’s Bearish MomentumLast week, OANDA:XAGUSD made several attempts to break through the 32.30 resistance zone but failed to sustain any momentum. Much like the price action in OANDA:XAUUSD , Thursday was marked by a bearish engulfing candle, which was even more significant given the preceding day's Doji formation. Following the formation of this bearish engulfing candle, the price dropped sharply, reaching a local low around the 30.30 level, marking a 2,000-pip drop from the previous high.
The structure forming since mid-September resembles a potential head and shoulders pattern, although it has not been confirmed yet.
If the price breaks below the 30.00 zone, it could put further pressure on the selling side, triggering more downside momentum. In this scenario, the next key support level to watch would be around 27.80, with the measured target for the pattern being approximately 25.00.
At this point, resistance is positioned at 31.50, and any rallies approaching this level should be viewed as potential selling opportunities. Sellers may look to capitalize on these rallies, anticipating a continuation of the downtrend.
Additionally, the bearish outlook is reinforced by a bearish Pin Bar on the weekly chart, which adds further weight to the negative bias. This combination of factors—bearish patterns on both the daily and weekly charts—suggests that the downward pressure could persist, with further downside potential for XAG/USD in the near term.
In summary, traders should remain cautious about buying in the current environment. Instead, the focus should be on selling rallies, especially near key resistance levels, while keeping an eye on the 30.00 support level as a key area for potential breakdown.
XAUUSD - sells in play?Here is our in-depth view and update on XAUUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair updated from the previous one.
Last time, we took a step back and took a look at XAUUSD from a bigger perspective (H4 time-frame). We are still using H4 to show you the sells we have in play.
XAUUSD is currently trading at around 2670s .
If you remember our previous long-term view on OANDA:XAUUSD you should remember that after hitting the top of the area at around 2714 (a bit higher) we were automatically looking for sells. We are currently holding a few sell positions at 2680s as the price failed to break higher.
Personal opinion:
The direction for now is bearish in our opinion. We are looking for sells and we do believe gold could see some massive sell-offs in December before the year of 2024 ends.
KEY NOTES
- XAUUSD completed the predicted long-term move to the upside.
- XAUUSD sells were called at the top of the area (2714).
- XAUUSD failed to break higher and is following the long-term analysis.
Happy trading!
FxPocket
XauUsd- New leg down towards 2610 support?In my Friday analysis, I highlighted that while the 2660-2665 zone is a technical support, it is too obvious and very likely to fall.
This prediction came true as the week closed with Gold trading below this level, forming a strongly bearish daily candle.
Additionally, a Pin Bar from the 2700+ resistance zone appeared on the weekly chart, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
During the Asian session last night, the price tested the ascending trendline, and as of now, Gold is trading at 2656, hinting at a potential rebound following the 800-pip drop from its recent peak.
Looking ahead, if a deeper rebound occurs, the 2680 zone will be a key level for bears to monitor. This area presents an ideal shorting opportunity given its favorable risk-to-reward setup.
At the moment, I’m out of the market, waiting to sell into signs of weakness, with 2610 support as my target.
Tia’s Next Move: Opportunity Below $6?Tia/USDT has been lagging recently, and while other altcoins surged strongly after Trump’s election, Tia only recently managed to break above a key resistance level at $6.
After reaching the recent high, the price corrected and is now back at the previous resistance level, which has turned into support.
I expect this support to hold, and if it does, we could see a new upward leg for Tia.
The immediate resistance is in the $7.3–$7.5 zone, and a breakout above this level could pave the way for further gains, potentially reaching the next key resistance levels at $9 or even $12.
Buying below $6 could offer a solid entry point with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
Gold Market Update: Indecision Dominates Ahead of FEDYesterday, OANDA:XAUUSD broke below the key confluence support at 2645.
However, the drop lacked meaningful follow-through. After reaching a local low at 2633, the price reversed and closed right at the confluence level.
As of now, gold remains virtually unchanged from Friday's close. Monday saw a spike up to 2665, while yesterday marked a dip to 2633, reflecting market indecision.
Technical Perspective:
At the time of writing, gold is trading below this critical level, currently at 2643. If the break below support proves genuine, bears will likely target the 2610-2615 zone, as highlighted in my previous analyses.
Conversely, if the price climbs back above 2655, the recent dip would be considered a false breakout, shifting the focus to the upside, with the 2680 zone as the next target.
FED's Influence:
The market awaits clarity from the Federal Reserve’s announcement and press conference today, which could provide direction for gold in the coming days.
Lingrid | BNBUSDT Contraction-Expansion Pattern. Potential Long The price perfectly fulfilled my last idea. It hit the target. BINANCE:BNBUSDT is currently moving sideways following the surge at the beginning of December. The lower highs and higher lows indicates that the price action is narrowing, suggesting a potential triangle pattern. This pattern is typically viewed as a trend continuation signal. The market is likely to continue its sideways movement, generating liquidity above and below the triangle formation, which could lead to a contraction-expansion scenario. I expect the price to dip below the psychological level of 700 before potentially bouncing off the channel border if bullish momentum builds after testing this support level. My goal is resistance zone around 760
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EUR/USD: Poised for a Reversal?On November 23, FOREXCOM:EURUSD broke below the critical 1.05 support zone, reaching a low of 1.0336. However, the pair quickly reversed course and has since been trading in a range between 1.0450 and 1.06.
A closer look at the price action suggests the pair has established a strong floor and is awaiting a catalyst for an upward reversal.
That catalyst could very well come today, with the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut and subsequent press conference. Given the accumulated market tension, an accelerated move to the upside seems likely.
Key Levels to Watch :
Support: Any dips below 1.05 should be viewed as buying opportunities, with the potential for a rebound.
Resistance: A target around 1.0750 appears realistic in the current context.
Invalidation Level: If the price falls back below 1.04, this bullish scenario would be negated.
EurAud could accelerate to the upside (1.7 target)After dipping below the key 1.6 level—both a technical and psychological threshold—at the end of November, EUR/AUD quickly rebounded and began climbing in a constructive manner. Recently, it established solid support at the 1.6350-1.6360 zone, with two notable reversals from this area observed last week.
As of now, EUR/AUD is trading at 1.6507, just below a technical resistance level, with the price action showing signs of a buildup. The odds favor an upward breakout, and if this materializes, it could lead to a sharp acceleration higher.
In this scenario, my swing trade target is the 1.7 mark. For now, my strategy is to buy on dips, anticipating the breakout and preparing for the upside momentum.
Alikze »» TONCOIN | Corrective scenario of ending wave 3💎 In the daily and weekly time, it is moving in an ascending channel, and currently the current wave of the 3rd ascending wave has started from the bottom of the channel.
💎 Scenario 1: Currently, it is placed in an important resistance, which according to the shaded area in the confirmation of its correction process, we can wait for the candle to confirm that this correction can continue until the green box area, which is also in the midline of the channel.
💎 Therefore, it is not recommended to buy at the moment and you should wait for the range break to continue the process.
🔔 Scenario 2: otherwise, correction should be seen up to the green box area. In case of a break, this upward trend can continue up to the channel ceiling.
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Algo:Bullish Momentum Intact for a Potential Upside continuationAlgo/USDT has been one of the standout performers among altcoins over the past month, with the price soaring by over 500%. After peaking just above $0.60, the coin experienced a healthy correction, forming a local low at $0.35, a level slightly above March's high.
Following this correction, BINANCE:ALGOUSDT entered a consolidation phase, creating a base around the $0.40 mark. This consolidation suggests the market is gathering strength for another potential upward move.
Currently, the price action indicates that Algo/USDT may be preparing for a new leg higher, with a likely target at the significant resistance near $0.70.
From a strategic perspective, I remain bullish as long as the $0.32 support level holds firm. The suggested approach is to buy dips, capitalizing on opportunities within this uptrend.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Support: $0.35 (recent local low), $0.32 (critical support)
- Resistance: $0.60 (previous high), $0.70 (major target resistance)
Lingrid | AUDCAD Choppy Market. Potential SHORT from RESISTANCEThe price perfectly fulfilled my last idea. It hit the target. FX:AUDCAD is currently moving sideways, indicating a choppy market. On the weekly timeframe, the last candle is a large doji, which signifies indecision in the market. Currently, the price is pulling back towards the resistance zone at 0.91000, following a bearish impulse leg. I think there is a likelihood that the price will bounce off both the psychological level and the upward trendline. It’s possible that the market might briefly push above the range zone to take liquidity before moving lower to retest the bottom of the range. My goal is support zone around 0.90100
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
XAU/USD Strategy: Selling Rallies Amid Bearish StructureIn my analysis of XAU/USD yesterday, I highlighted that after the 800-pip drop, a rebound was likely. However, given the weekly Pin Bar and the bearish daily structure, I emphasized that any upward move should be viewed as a correction and an opportunity to sell.
Indeed, the market did see a rebound, but it was weak and short-lived. After reaching the 2665 zone, the price reversed to the downside and ended the day with minimal change.
Currently, the price sits at 2652, with the recent lows now acting as confluent support, reinforced by the rising trendline from the recent bottom. A decisive break below this support zone would shift focus to the next key level at 2610-2615.
My strategy remains unchanged: I continue to look for selling opportunities on rallies.
Lingrid | ETHUSDT testing KEY RESISTANCE ZoneThe price perfectly fulfilled my last idea. It hit the target. BINANCE:ETHUSDT is currently hovering around the significant psychological level of 4000. The price tested this zone two weeks ago and is now retesting it again. After making a false breakout of the previous week's high, there's a chance the price may either pull back or trade sideways in the short term. However, I thinkt that the market may eventually break above and close above this resistance zone, possibly on its third approach. I expect the price bounce off the support level and upward trendline. My goal is resistance zone around 4300
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻