S&P500 The new Bullish Leg has begun.The S&P500 index (SPX) has completed 4 straight green 1D candles, and is already trading above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again. With its 1D RSI also reaching its MA (yellow trend-line), we view last Friday's candle as the new Higher Low at the bottom of the 4-month Channel Up.
This pattern is so far highly symmetrical with each of the 2 completed Legs so far, following an a-b-c-d structure. Right now we are on step (a) that is the start of the Bullish Leg. Based on this model, we are expected to approach the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up on step (b) then make the mid-Leg pull-back to (c) and then resume the uptrend for the Bullish Leg's top on (d).
We expect that to be on at least 6300, which is marginally below the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, being the minimum level that each of the previous 2 Bullish Legs hit.
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Signals
BITCOIN What lies ahead after this correction? The DXY x-factor.Bitcoin (BTCUS) is having in the past 2 weeks the technical correction is should based on the previous Bull Cycle. As you can see, since the U.S. elections it has rallied aggressively past its previous All Time High (ATH), same way it did in December 2020.
** Bitcoin and Doge during 2020 **
At the same time, the alt coin market was mostly consolidating in preparation of a bullish break-out. A representative example of such behavior would be Dogecoin (DOGEUSD) as seen in orange on this chart, which during BTC's December 2020 rally, it was consolidating/ pulling-back (green circle) from an initial rally. However it remained significantly below its previous ATH, the same way it is now.
** The DXY decline sparking crypto rallies **
Notice the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), displayed by the green trend-line on this chart. Right now it is has been rallying in the past three months, at the same time as Bitcoin has. In the previous Cycle in 2020, it hit a top during the COVID March 2020 market crash and with the smashing of the Interest Rates, it started a Channel Down decline that backed perfectly Bitcoin's rally. We has the exact same DXY-backed rally during Bitcoin's 2017 Bull Cycle.
As a result, we are seeing a paradox on the current Cycle: BTC entering its most aggressive phase (Parabolic Rally) of the Bull Cycle and rallying despite DXY rising. That is attributed of course to a large extent to the huge ETF inflows (something that wasn't present in 2020).
** Overdue DXY decline? **
This leads us to believe that an overdue decline on the DXY, just as the Fed has initiated a new cut Cycle (as they did during the COVID crash), will push Bitcoin and especially the alts market, including Doge, to a new rally. Of course DXY's decline may not be as aggressive this time, as the stimulus shouldn't be that high (especially with Powell's recent remarks on a 2 rate cut expectation in 2025 instead of the previous projection of 4), but it could be enough to spark the final BTC rally of the Bull Cycle and the much anticipated Altseason.
So do you think the market will rally once more on a potential 'delayed' DXY drop? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Lingrid | USDCAD selling OPPORTUNITY in the Sideways MARKETFX:USDCAD is currently moving sideways after a bullish trend that began in September. It has encountered a strong resistance zone that was established in March 2020. Therefore it’s possible that the price may consolidate for an extended period following such a strong upward move. At present, price action is trading within the range established in the previous week. The price is forming a clear range, consistently bouncing between the top and bottom levels. I expect the market to continue consolidating, providing opportunities to capitalize on the sideways movement. My goal is support zone around 1.43730
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Lingrid | TONUSDT ongoing Period of MARKET ConsolidationThe price perfectly fulfilled my last idea. It hit the target. OKX:TONUSDT is currently showing a pattern of lower highs and higher lows, indicating that price action is narrowing down, which often suggests a potential breakout. As observed, the market is oscillating between the 5.00 and 6.00 levels, having taken liquidity below the psychological level of 5.00 twice. This may imply that the market is building a range below the 6.00 mark before making a move higher. Given that the price has respected the support level multiple times, I expect it to bounce off this level. If this support holds above it, we could see a gradual move higher, possibly starting in the beginning of next year. My goal is resistance zoen around 6.40
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SILVER Will Go Lower! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for SILVER.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 29.812.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 28.778 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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EURUSD Will Go Down! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 1.040.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 1.025 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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USD/JPY – Just One Step Away from a Drop!Dear Traders,
After a notable rally late last week, USD/JPY appears to have lost its momentum. Observations suggest that Wave 5 has completed, paving the way for a potential corrective decline, which aligns perfectly with the classic wave structure.
We can now anticipate a downward correction, likely targeting the 155.95 zone initially. Following this, we might see further bearish consolidation below this level, aiming for the liquidity area around 152.85, a region that buyers have yet to revisit, and is currently taking shape.
Remember, this is just the starting point of our analysis journey. We will provide regular updates so you can stay informed and adjust your strategies accordingly. Stick to the plan and trade carefully!
EurNzd could rise to 1.85On October 1st, EUR/NZD reached a local low at the psychological level of 1.75, followed by a reversal that lasted until November 1st, gaining nearly 1300 pips.
A normal correction then occurred, and from mid-November, the pair started consolidating between the 1.78 and 1.80 levels.
December brought a breakout above the key 1.80 level, and since then, EUR/NZD has been in a nice uptrend.
As of now, the price is 1.8230, and it looks like a breakout above resistance is imminent.
In this scenario, the next target for the bulls is the 1.85 level.
Gold could close the year in an optimistic toneBefore Christmas, OANDA:XAUUSD established strong support around the 2610 level, maintaining this position even during the low-volume trading days typical of the holiday season.
Currently, the price is edging higher, approaching the key resistance zone of 2645–2650. A decisive breakout above this zone could lead to further gains, potentially allowing gold to close the year on a positive and optimistic note, possibly reaching or exceeding the 2700 level.
However, a break below the 2610 support would indicate a bearish shift for gold in the near term.
How does gold price change on weekends? What should you note?Hello everyone, Ben here!
Last week, we witnessed a significant drop in gold prices. At one point, gold prices fell to a low of $2,583. Currently, gold is trading around $2,627, stabilizing over the week.
It is clear that the hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve (Fed) last week, indicating that they will slow the pace of rate cuts in 2025, supported the US Dollar (USD) to remain near its two-year high and acted as a drag on the non-yielding gold metal. Additionally, a positive risk trend contributed to limiting the gains of this precious metal.
However, geopolitical risks stemming from the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East, along with fears of a trade war, continue to provide some support for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, a modest pullback in US Treasury yields has supported a mild buying tone amid thin trading volumes during Christmas Eve.
Therefore, it would be wise to wait for some follow-through buying before positioning for any further recovery from last week’s one-month low.
The projected price increase is expected to reach $2,650. What do you think about this?
Sincerely,
Bentradegold!
BTC - What the Next Movement? Wyckoff MethodThe Wyckoff Range typically manifests as horizontal price action (sideways movement) on a chart. It represents a phase where supply and demand reach a temporary balance, and large institutional players accumulate or distribute their positions.
Wyckoff Range manipulations are deliberate actions by large market participants (like institutions or "composite operators") to deceive retail traders, creating a false sense of market direction. These manipulations are integral to the Wyckoff Method, designed to exploit liquidity and accumulate or distribute large positions without causing significant market impact.
U Unity Among My Top 10 Picks for 2025 | Price TargetIf you haven`t bought U Unity at all time low:
My price target for U in 2025 is $35, driven by the following fundamental factors:
Strong Market Position in Gaming and Interactive Content:
Unity maintains a dominant position in the gaming industry, with approximately 70% of the top mobile games built on its platform. The global gaming market is projected to grow significantly, driven by increasing consumer spending on mobile and interactive content. Unity's extensive reach—3.7 billion monthly downloads of applications made with Unity—positions it well to capture this growth. As the demand for high-quality gaming experiences continues to rise, Unity's technology will be integral in meeting these needs.
Innovative Product Developments:
The upcoming launch of Unity 6 promises to enhance the platform's stability and performance, which is crucial for attracting new developers and retaining existing customers. Additionally, Unity's shift back to a subscription-based model has shown positive results, with subscription revenue growing by 12%. This focus on innovation and customer satisfaction is expected to drive user engagement and revenue growth in the coming years.
Focus on Operational Efficiency and Cost Management:
Unity's recent restructuring efforts have significantly reduced net losses, from $291 million in Q1 2024 to $126 million in Q2 2024. This focus on operational efficiency not only improves profitability but also enhances cash flow management—Unity generated $115 million in free cash flow in Q3 2024. As the company continues to streamline operations while investing in growth initiatives, it is likely to see further improvements in financial performance.
Valuation Potential Amidst Market Recovery:
Despite recent challenges, Unity's current valuation presents an attractive opportunity for investors. Analysts are optimistic about the company's long-term growth prospects, particularly as it adapts to market demands and enhances its product offerings. With a target price suggesting significant upside potential from current levels, Unity is positioned for substantial appreciation as it executes its strategic vision.
GME GameStop Among My Top 10 Picks for 2025 | Price TargetIf you haven`t bought GME before the previous breakout:
My price target for GME in 2025 is $43, driven by the following fundamental factors:
Transformation into a Digital Retailer:
GameStop is actively transitioning from a traditional brick-and-mortar retailer to a digital-first company. This strategic pivot includes enhancing its e-commerce platform and investing in digital gaming, which are essential for capturing the growing online gaming market. As consumers increasingly shift towards digital purchases, GameStop's ability to adapt and innovate positions it to benefit from this trend, potentially driving significant revenue growth in the coming years.
Financial Recovery and Profitability Focus:
After a challenging period, GameStop is on a path toward profitability. Analysts predict that the company will earn approximately $0.08 per share in the fiscal year ending January 2025, reflecting a positive trend in its financial performance. The company's focus on reducing excess costs and improving operational efficiencies will further enhance its bottom line. As profitability improves, investor confidence is likely to increase, supporting higher stock valuations.
Strong Market Sentiment and Stock Performance:
GameStop has demonstrated remarkable stock performance over the past year, with a return of over 110%, significantly outperforming major indices 1. This momentum has created positive market sentiment around GME, which could attract more investors looking for growth opportunities. The current trading price around $26.84 suggests that there is room for appreciation as the company continues to execute its strategic initiatives.
Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations:
GameStop's collaborations with various technology partners are opening new avenues for growth. These partnerships are aimed at enhancing customer experience and expanding product offerings, particularly in the pre-owned game category where GameStop has unique refurbishment capabilities. By leveraging these strengths, GameStop can cater to niche segments of the gaming market, further solidifying its competitive position.
MRNA Moderna Among My Top 10 Picks for 2025 | Price TargetIf you haven`t bought MRNA on the recent breakout:
My price target for MRNA in 2025 is $55, driven by the following fundamental factors:
Innovative mRNA Technology and Expanding Pipeline:
Moderna has established itself as a leader in mRNA technology, initially gaining prominence through its COVID-19 vaccine. The company is now leveraging this innovative platform to develop a diverse array of therapeutic candidates, with approximately 40 development projects in progress across various fields, including infectious diseases, oncology, and rare genetic disorders. This broad pipeline not only enhances Moderna's potential for future revenue but also positions it to capitalize on emerging healthcare needs as the demand for advanced therapies continues to rise.
Projected Revenue Growth:
Despite facing financial challenges, including recent losses, Moderna's revenue outlook remains promising. The company is forecasting sales between $2.5 billion and $3.5 billion for 2025, which analysts believe could be conservative given the anticipated rollout of new vaccines and treatments. If successful, these products could significantly boost sales and profitability, driving investor confidence and stock price appreciation 16. Market projections suggest that if Moderna successfully navigates its clinical trials and product launches, the stock could reach around $80 per share by 2025.
Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations:
Moderna's strategic collaborations with major pharmaceutical companies enhance its development capabilities and market access. These partnerships are crucial for accelerating product development and increasing the adoption of its mRNA technology across various therapeutic areas. By aligning with established players in the industry, Moderna can leverage additional resources and expertise to bring its innovations to market more effectively.
Market Sentiment and Recovery Potential:
Currently trading at lower valuations due to past performance fluctuations, Moderna's stock is positioned for recovery as investor sentiment shifts with positive developments in its pipeline. The company's five-year growth trajectory shows resilience despite recent setbacks, indicating potential for a rebound as new products come to market. Analysts remain optimistic about Moderna's long-term prospects, suggesting that as the market recognizes the value of its innovative therapies, the stock could see substantial gains.
AMD Among My Top 10 Picks for 2025 | Price TargetIf you haven`t bought AMD on this strong buy rating:
My price target for AMD in 2025 is $175, driven by the following fundamental factors:
Robust Growth in Data Center and AI Segments:
AMD is experiencing significant momentum in its data center business, particularly with its EPYC processors and AI accelerators. The company has raised its revenue outlook for its MI300 AI accelerators to over $5 billion for 2024, reflecting robust demand and an expanding market presence. Analysts project that AMD's earnings per share (EPS) will grow by approximately 55% in 2025, driven by increasing contributions from these high-margin segments. This growth trajectory positions AMD favorably to capture a larger share of the rapidly expanding AI and data center markets, which are projected to see substantial investments in the coming years.
Competitive Positioning Against Rivals:
AMD's strategic focus on providing cost-effective and high-performance solutions allows it to compete effectively against industry giants like NVIDIA. The launch of its MI325X accelerator, which offers competitive performance at lower price points compared to NVIDIA's offerings, is expected to attract hyperscale clients. This competitive edge is crucial as demand for AI processing power continues to surge across various industries.
Strong Financial Health and Valuation:
AMD's financial metrics indicate a solid foundation for growth. The company has demonstrated impressive gross margins, recently reported at around 52%, and is expected to see further margin expansion as it shifts towards higher-margin products. Currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 24x for fiscal 2025, AMD is considered undervalued compared to its peers, particularly given its projected earnings growth. Analysts have set an average price target of $182 for AMD by the end of 2025, suggesting significant upside potential from current levels.
Strategic Acquisitions and Leadership:
Under CEO Lisa Su's leadership, AMD has transformed into a powerhouse in the semiconductor industry. Recent strategic acquisitions, such as ZT Systems, enhance AMD's capabilities in providing comprehensive AI infrastructure solutions. This strategy not only expands AMD's product offerings but also strengthens its relationships with key clients in the cloud computing space.
NVDA Nvidia Among My Top 10 Picks for 2025 | Price TargetIf you haven`t bought the recent dip on NVDA:
My price target for NVDA in 2025 is $170, driven by the following fundamental factors:
Dominance in AI and Data Center Markets:
NVIDIA is a leader in the artificial intelligence (AI) and data center sectors, which are expected to experience exponential growth. The company's GPUs are critical for AI applications, and its data center revenue has surged dramatically, reaching $14.51 billion in Q3 2023—a threefold increase year-over-year. Analysts predict that NVIDIA's revenue could reach approximately $111.3 billion in 2025, driven by the relentless demand for AI technologies and the expansion of data center capabilities.
Innovative Product Pipeline:
The upcoming introduction of NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture is set to enhance its competitive edge further. This new line of chips is designed to deliver unprecedented performance levels for AI applications, solidifying NVIDIA's leadership in the sector. The anticipated demand for these advanced products is expected to bolster revenue and profitability significantly. Additionally, NVIDIA's continuous investment in research and development ensures that it remains at the forefront of technological advancements.
Strong Financial Performance and Market Sentiment:
NVIDIA has demonstrated robust financial health, with gross margins consistently above 70% and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts reflecting strong growth. The company has also engaged in substantial share repurchase programs, returning value to shareholders while signaling confidence in its future performance. Market sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive, with analysts frequently upgrading their price targets based on NVIDIA's strong fundamentals and growth trajectory.
QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF 2025 Prediction - My Top 10 PicksIf you haven`t bought the recent dip on QQQ:
My price target for QQQ in 2025 is $608, driven by the following fundamental factors:
Strong Growth Potential in Technology:
The QQQ ETF is heavily weighted towards technology companies, which are at the forefront of innovation and growth. Major constituents like Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA are not only leaders in their respective fields but are also expected to benefit from ongoing trends such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and digital transformation. Analysts project that the earnings growth for QQQ constituents will outpace that of broader market indices, with estimated one-year earnings growth rates around 17.31%. This growth trajectory supports a bullish outlook as these companies continue to expand their market share and profitability.
Favorable Macroeconomic Conditions:
Recent Federal Reserve actions, including interest rate cuts, create a conducive environment for growth stocks. The Fed's dovish stance is likely to lower borrowing costs and stimulate investment in technology sectors. As interest rates decline, the present value of future earnings increases, making high-growth tech stocks more attractive. The anticipated economic recovery and stabilization should further enhance investor sentiment towards QQQ.
Historical Performance and Resilience:
Historically, QQQ has outperformed the S&P 500 in bull markets, showcasing its resilience during periods of economic expansion. Over the past decade, QQQ has delivered an average annual return of approximately 18.59%, significantly outpacing many other investment vehicles. This historical performance suggests that as market conditions improve, QQQ is well-positioned to capitalize on renewed investor interest in growth stocks.
ALTSEASON Merry Christmas with the biggest Buy Signal out there!First let's start this post by wishing Merry Christmas to the whole community!
It's yet again the total crypto market cap (excluding the top 10 tokens) that we are looking at as this time we have the strongest possible buy signal on the 1M chart! The 1M MA20 (blue trend-line) has completed a cross above the 1M MA50 (orange trend-line). The last time this happened was during the previous Bull Cycle on the most symmetric time possible, December 2020. In the meantime, the 1M CCI was almost at the same level (around 180.00).
This sense of highly cyclical repetition, indicates that the following months could be as aggressive as January - May 2021 for the market, when it topped on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the Cycle bottom. If that feat is repeated, we look towards a 1.65 Trillion market cap in 2025. We can't be more bullish for an upcoming Altseason than that!
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DOW JONES What signals the top of this Cycle?Dow Jones (DJI) has been on a highly systematic pattern ever since the 2009 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis and this chart on the 3W time-frame depicts very accurately the symmetrical nature of the Cycles that the index is going through in the past 15 years.
As you see, ever since the October 2011 bounce on both the 3W MA50 (blue trend-line) and 3W MA200 (orange trend-line), Dow started a hyper aggressive Bull Cycle, which after making a Top on each phase, it broke below the 3W MA50 to become a buy opportunity again but has never yet broken below the 3W MA200.
So far we have completed three such phases and we are currently on the 4th. In the three that have already been completed, the Top of the Phase was signaled by the RSI. At a certain point that it broke above the 70.00 overbought barrier, it started a Channel Down comprised of 4 legs (a through d). On the (d) leg, it gave a signal that Dow had (or is very close to) topped. That was the ultimate long-term Sell Signal. Similarly, when the index broke below its MA50 and the RSI double bottomed, it has been the ultimate signal to buy.
Right now it appears that the RSI has completed Leg (a) and is starting the rise to Leg (b) of its newly emerged Channel Down. That means that the market has around another 12 months before it Tops again.
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GOLD Will Move Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 2,626.558.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 2,600.886 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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