DOW JONES 25-year Cycles show the clear picture you should know.Almost 8 months ago (April 12, see chart below), just when Dow Jones (DJI) was recovering from April's correction, we sent a clear message not to lose sight of the greater picture and to stay bullish:
The reason was the index' clear cyclical pattern since the February 2009 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis. The index has grown by +17% since that analysis (from 38459 to 45080) and we can't see a reason not to complete the pattern and hit our 48850 Target, which is our projection for this Cycle's Top.
On this updated chart is on the 1W time-frame, in contrast with April's which was on the 1M, we have added to key elements. The Channel Up that is dictating the pace of the Bull Cycle since the Feb 2009 bottom and the Fibonacci retracement levels, which show that after the Bull Cycle topped, the subsequent Bear Cycle corrected within the 0.236 - 0.382 Fibonacci Zone at least before the bottom was formed.
In fact, all Cycles hit the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) upon the Bear corrections and those didn't start before the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) was broken (1M candle close below). Our 48850 Target is technically the minimum estimate as that was the % rise of the previous one (Cycle 4), which was the least aggressive compared to others (Cycle 3 = +77.19%, Cycle 2 = +75.09%, Cycle 1 = +99.62%). If Cycle 5 peaks higher, we will draw the Fibonacci retracement levels from that top and re-adjust our expected 0.382 Fibonacci bottom for the Bear Cycle (or if the 1M MA50 gets hit first).
As far as timing of the Cycle 5 Top is concerned, we expect that to be on December 2025 the earliest, again based on the Cycle with the minimum time length (Cycle 3), excluding Cycle 1 which was the most aggressive as it was the first after the U.S. Housing Crisis bottom.
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Signals
XAUUSD potential buy signalHere is our signal on XAUUSD . Potential long opportunity.
As the price on XAUUSD has broken the long-term consolidation at 2666 , we could potentially see more upside on gold if we manage to stay above 2660 . Our entry is sitting at 2667 with SL (Stop Loss) sitting below the 2660 area at 2656.700 . Our TP (Take Profit) is sitting at the next KL (Key Level) at 2685 .
PARAMETERS
- Entry: 2667
- SL: 2656.700
- TP: 2685.000
KEY NOTES
- XAUUSD broke the consolidation area.
- Staying above 2660 would confirm our buys.
Happy trading!
FxPocket
US30 Is Bullish! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for US30.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 44,204.8.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 45,600.0.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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GOLD Is Very Bearish! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for GOLD.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 2,695.926.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 2,617.334 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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CADJPY Will Fall! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for CADJPY.
Time Frame: 3h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 107.583.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 106.848 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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Trading minute impulseOn the minute timeframe of XAUUSD at the moment we have the completion of the impulse formation. If the price continues to move in the direction of the impulse and the support zones do not allow it to overcome the base of the impulse, it may reach the targets 1 and 2. If the price fails to advance in the direction of the momentum and overcomes the support zone at the base of the momentum, it is very likely that the price will move sideways or against the direction of the momentum.
CHFJPY Will Go Down! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for CHFJPY.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 172.362.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 171.702.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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DAX Strong probability for a technical pull-back here.DAX (DE40) hit last week our 20000 Target, which we established 2 months ago (October 04, see chart below):
That Target was near the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Channel Up that started on the week of the October 03 2022 bottom. As you can see, this pattern has topped both previous Bullish Waves on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level and after a pull-back consolidation phase (red Arc), it started the Bearish Legs that bottomed and made Higher Lows on Support 1, which was the previous Resistance level.
Having now already hit its 1.618 Fib ext, we expect DAX to pull-back a little and turn sideways as per the pattern, which we will short, targeting 19000 (Support 1). If however we see a 1W MA200 (blue trend-line) hit and immediate rebound and weekly closing above it, we will book our sell profit earlier.
Notice also the high symmetry on those Legs, between their 1W CCI fractals.
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BITCOIN This is why $250k is a Cycle Top candidateBitcoin (BTCUSD) is now cruising on the Bull Cycle's most aggressive phase, the Parabolic Rally. We got the final confirmation as it broke above and now established the 1st Standard Deviation from Above (grey trend-line) of the Mayer Multiple Bands (MMB) as the new Support.
Having already broken above the previous All Time High (ATH) Resistance, every time BTC flipped the 1st SD into Support while above the ATH, it hit at least the 2nd SD (orange trend-line) before the Cycle Top was priced. This level is currently at $181700 but rising along with the trend
What adds a more specific dynamic to the potential Cycle Top though, is that during Bitcoin's 11-year Higher Lows trend-line growth, it posted rallies of at least +1719% on each Cycle. As the Cycles progressed and due to the Law of Diminishing Returns, this rally started lower each time.
This shows the great significance of this rally and as a result, on the current Cycle with can estimate from its very bottom (November 2022). This suggests that we can reach at least $250k before or around the time the 2nd SD is tested. In addition, all Cycles have topped after the 1M RSI makes contact with its historic Lower Highs trend-line.
So what do you think? Is $250k a strong candidate for a Cycle Top? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Alikze »» Link | Scenario wave 1 of 3 rising - 1D🔍 Technical analysis: Scenario wave 1 of 3 rising - 1D
- It has been moving in a downward channel on the daily time frame.
- Currently, with the failure of the descending channel, in the case of a pullback to the ceiling of the channel or the range of 12.50, it can have the target of 16 to 17 dollars in the first step.
- This ascending wave is the previous wave. But in a longer-term perspective, wave 2 correction in the green box range has ended.
- Therefore, this recent motivational wave, micro-waves, wave 1 out of 3 is rising.
💎 In addition, this increasing wave can continue to climb up to Fibo 1.272 and 1.618 if the supply zone is broken.
⚠️ Note: If the candlestick closes below the 12.50 zone, the bullish scenario is invalidated and can retest the green box zone. ⚠️
💎 Currently, according to the momentum, the first scenario or the bullish scenario is more likely.
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BINANCE:LINKUSDT
EURCHF: Intraday Bearish Signal?! 🇪🇺🇨🇭
EURCHF nicely reacted to a key intraday horizontal resistance.
The price formed an inverted cup & handle pattern on that
and violated its neckline with a bearish imbalance candle.
I think that the price may drop lower.
Next support - 0.9278
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Is EurUsd's correction over?In my previous posts about EUR/USD, I discussed the potential for an upside correction following the break below the 1.05 support level, the drop to 1.0330, and the subsequent reversal. I suggested that this upward movement could potentially push the price toward the 1.0670 resistance zone.
Indeed, the pair did rise, reaching an intraday high of 1.0628 during Friday's NFP event. However, the day ended with a downside move, leaving a red candle with a long wick on the daily chart.
The medium-term trend for EUR/USD remains bearish. This, combined with the overlapping structure from the recent low, clearly indicates that we are not witnessing the start of a bullish trend but rather a corrective phase.
The key question now is whether this correction has concluded. To confirm, we would need to see a break back below the 1.05 level.
With this in mind, if the pair revisits Friday's high, I plan to sell, placing a stop loss above 1.07 and targeting the 1.0450 support level.
Lingrid | USDJPY Optimal ZONE to SHORT the MarketThe price perfectly fulfilled my previous idea. It hit the TP level. FX:USDJPY is currently pulling toward the resistance zone and appears to be forming an ABC pattern upward, indicating a complex pullback. Given that the overall trend is still bearish, I anticipate that the market may move down to retest the support level. The price previously consolidated above this zone before breaking through, highlighting its significance. Therefore, I expect the market to rebound from the resistance and then retest the middle of the range zone, where we might see further reactions as traders assess the potential for continuation or reversal. My goal is support zone around 150.235
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
GbpAud- Long term outlookAfter a strong reversal from the 1.6 low, which gained 4,000 pips, GBP/AUD encountered significant resistance around the 2.0 zone. This resistance led to a prolonged consolidation phase lasting over a year.
On the weekly chart, this consolidation appears to have formed an ascending triangle, a bullish continuation pattern. At this point, there is a high probability of a genuine breakout to the upside.
If the breakout occurs and holds, we can anticipate a continuation of the uptrend, potentially adding another 2,000 pips to the pair's upward movement. Interim resistance lies near the 2.08 level, which could serve as a target for swing traders or a key area to monitor for price action.
Lingrid | SHIBUSDT long OPPORTUNITY in BULLISH Trending MarketsThe price perfectly fulfilled my last idea. It reached the target zone. BINANCE:SHIBUSDT has bounced off the channel border and is currently attempting to find support. Overall, the market is in a bullish trend, forming higher highs and higher lows. While it hasn't reached the higher resistance level established in the spring of this year, I believe the market will continue pushing toward that level. I expect a slight pullback toward the buying zone between 0.000020 and 0.000023 before a potential upward movement. This pullback could provide a better entry for those looking to capitalize on the bullish trend. My goal is resistance zonea round 0.000036
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Gold--> Is the Upswing Just Starting or Is a Pause Ahead?Hello, Amazing Friends of Brian! Let's Strategize for Today's Market!
Gold continues to showcase its resilience today, with prices trending higher and currently hovering around the $2,700 mark, up 0.22% on the day. This movement reflects a growing appetite for the safe-haven metal amid mounting uncertainty in the Middle East and speculation about a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve. These factors are providing robust support for gold in both the medium and long term.
Yet, as the market digests these developments, the critical question arises: Can this bullish momentum sustain, or are we approaching a potential correction? Much of the answer hinges on the trajectory of the U.S. dollar, which remains a decisive force in gold’s price action.
From a technical perspective, gold is fast approaching a significant resistance level at $2,720. A breakout above this mark could ignite further buying interest, paving the way for an extended rally. Conversely, failure to breach this level might trigger a short-term pullback. However, the overall bullish structure remains intact, as evidenced by the upward trendline on the 1-hour chart.
Looking ahead, I anticipate gold to continue its upward journey, with any correction near resistance presenting a strategic buying opportunity. Key targets to watch include $2,750, $2,790, and $2,800, as highlighted on the 3-hour chart.
Let’s seize these market opportunities together—wishing you all a profitable trading day!
EURUSDThe EUR/USD pair continues to trade below the 34 and 89 EMA levels, signaling a short-term bearish trend. Despite attempts at consolidation in recent sessions, the pair remains under pressure, weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar, geopolitical uncertainty, and diverging monetary policies between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB).
The U.S. dollar has extended its rally for the third consecutive day, with the Dollar Index (DXY) climbing past the 106.60 mark. This persistent strength has added significant downward pressure on EUR/USD, leaving the pair vulnerable to further declines as market dynamics unfold.
From a technical perspective, traders should focus on two key resistance levels. These areas could provide optimal entry points for positioning, with the primary targets set at well-defined support zones. Monitoring price action around these levels will be crucial to aligning strategies with the prevailing market trend.
Stay disciplined and vigilant as you navigate today’s trading opportunities. Wishing you success and profitable trades!
Gold-> Testing Resistance Levels: A Decline or a False Breakout?OANDA:XAUUSD currently consolidating within a descending channel, trading near $2,669. Technically, investors are caught in a dilemma, and the fundamental backdrop remains murky. So, what will happen next with the precious metal?
The focus early in the week shifts to demand catalysts, with news of the People's Bank of China continuing its aggressive gold buying capturing attention. This, coupled with expectations of further monetary easing, creates a supportive foundation for gold prices. Traders are pricing in an 87% probability that the central bank will cut interest rates by another 25 basis points during its meeting on December 17-18. However, despite these factors, the path forward is far from clear. Theoretically, it remains uncertain whether prices can climb higher as they approach a strong resistance level and traders remain cautious ahead of key economic data like CPI and PPI, which could shift market sentiment.
From a technical perspective, the market seems to lack a decisive trigger to escape its current consolidation phase. Personally, I foresee a high probability of a false breakout in the near term. However, if price action at the $2,677 resistance level and the upper boundary of the descending channel shows sufficient rejection, a decline could occur sooner than expected. In such a scenario, the downside target appears to be around $2,615.
Share your thoughts, opinions, and questions—let’s discuss what’s happening with OANDA:XAUUSD :)
FIVE Five Below Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of FIVE Five Below prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 100usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-12-20,
for a premium of approximately $5.00.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
MRVL Marvell Technology Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the MRVL before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MRVL Marvell Technology prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 95usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-12-6,
for a premium of approximately $3.70.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
BTC Bitcoin Bear Market If you haven`t bought BTC before the recent rally:
Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to retrace in December before starting a recovery around March. This pattern could repeat this season, with BTC facing selling pressure as year-end portfolio rebalancing and macro uncertainties weigh on the market.
While a brief Santa Claus rally might provide temporary relief, the bearish trend is expected to dominate until March. By then, BTC could trade below $84K before regaining momentum, aligning with its historical recovery trend as market conditions stabilize in spring.
MU Micron Technology Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought MU before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MU Micron Technology prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 105usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $4.80.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.