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Si1! (Silver Futures)

XAGUSD: Sell opportunity and multi-year trading plan.Silver is on a 4 week rebound following the 11.650 bottom made last month. On the 1W chart, this move has recovered 50% of the losses (trading just above the 0.5 Fibonacci) sustained since the decline from the 18.950 Top late in February. This is the reason that the 1W technical indicators are back to being neutral (RSI = 45.325, MACD = -0.562, ADX = 21.014, STOCHRSI = 50.488). On a bigger scale we can see that since 2014, Silver (XAGUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down, making sharp Lowers Highs and Lower Lows. The current sequence is similar to the one is 2014. After a Lower High and a secondary Top, the price collapsed to a Lower Low. The rebound that followed (where we are at now) stopped on the 1W MA50 (blue trend line) which happened to also be near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This makes us believe that the top is around the 0.618 Fibonacci and that a new decline may follow for a new Lower Low. We are setting a more reasonable Target Zone though at 11.650 - 12.500. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
FX_IDC:XAGUSDShort
by InvestingScope
1
XAGUSD: Consolidation on the Lower Low. Buy opportunity.Silver has completed last week the bearish leg of the 1D Channel Down that started in September (RSI = 34.367, MACD = -0.179, ADX = 27.061, Highs/Lows = -0.7962) and made a Lower Low at 16.200. The RSI action shows that the price may consolidate a while before rising towards the Lower High zone, but remains an optimal buy opportunity nonetheless. Our Target Zone is 17.500 - 17.850. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by InvestingScope
Portier | Silver Futures/XAGUSD Macro Outlook & AnalysisTraders & Investors! Yet another opportunity to leverage the Coronavirus theme out of China. We anticipate flow on effects of lacklustre industrial demand for the precious metal through to Silver importation through EM Asia/China resulting in a sell off. Technicals are lining up for favourable entries across the board. We have added sellside exposure across both our macro and directional portfolios ------------------------- We look forward to continuing to provide market leading analysis to traders & investors alike across the TradingView platform. Like, subscribe and leave your comments below! Until next time, Portier Capital Macro Strategy & Portfolio Management
COMEX:SI1!Short
by Portier
XAGUSD: Close to a bottom. Aggressive Bull in 2020.Silver has been trading inside a Falling Wedge since the early September Top (1D RSI = 37.923, MACD = -0.187, Highs/Lows = -0.1939) and is currently on the Lower Low. 1W is turning neutral as the Wedge is close to exhausting its limit. The 1D MA200 is approaching to provide Support. Based on the 1D RSI and MACD patterns, there are a lot of similarities between the September - December sequence and January - March fractal. On the RSI side both display a Channel Down, while the MACD is consolidating on its lows. According to that we've reached the conclusion that XAGUSD is at or close to its new long term bottom (the Jan-March fractal made the bottom on the symmetrical support provided by the last Higher Low). Expect an aggressive bullish break out by January 2020. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by InvestingScope
1
Silver - Potential Buy-in Opportunity and a Look at PriceSilver is one of those classic investments that people tend to buy as price moves rapidly in a positive direction. By the time you hear about Silver's performance, the smart money is already unloading their holdings. I like silver. In fact, it's one of my top long term holdings. I think with the positive traction gold has had over the past 20 years proves the case for precious metals, and displays the shaky ground holding up fiat currency. Silver is merely a leveraged play of gold, and it's cheap price makes it easier to buy and sell small quantities of physical holdings. I will post a monthly chart of silver as well to show where I think price is going over the next 10-20 years. But, for today we will focus on he weekly chart and where things are headed over the next year or so. This recent run up to $19.80 is nothing more than a short squeeze and FOMO rally. Just like I said, people only buy silver when the price is already up. There is no interest in the space otherwise, and the people who have been buying the last 3 months are already regretting it, or are in denial. We won't see $19-20 silver for at least another year or two. I do think silver poses a great long term buy. If you are going to hold for more than 20 years, you can't go wrong. However, if you think price will double over the next year, you got another thing coming. I'm expecting a retest of $15.50-16 over the next 6 months, with a few relief rallies along the way. We can still play the swings over this time and make money. Over the next 1 to 2 years, I thinks there's a good 60% chance (roughly) to retest $14. I've drawn out the two scenarios I think are the most likely to play out. The one that plays out all depends on how price behaves over the next 6 months, and how soon we get a strong relief rally. If the rally happens too soon, I think we move back down to $14 and don't see $18-19 until late 2021. If we have a healthy correction down to $15-16 and have a later rally, I think we could see $18-19 sooner. The main thing to keep in mind is that overhead resistance keeping us in this long term wedge. The market will respect this pattern, until of course it doesn't. Keep your eye on the swings of this market, and you might make some coin (pun intended). Thanks for stopping by!
COMEX:SI1!
by micahjmiller
Silver & other commodities have more downside, SILVER TO $16.00!Commodities are feeling the downside pressure due to the strong US dollar, there is money flowing out safe-haven assets into the equity market since it's been climbing to all-time highs. Silver forms a very interesting pattern and has been doing so since the start of September when it fell drastically from the strong rally. The pattern involves a strong 1-2-day drop then consolidation, slight pop into the broken support now resistance then another stern drop forming a downward channel for the past 3-4 months. We expect the continuation, a slight slow pop on weak volume into $17.45 resistance based on the broken low and top of the channel then strong drop through $16.75 into $16.00 potentially. Disclaimer: This idea is for educational purposes only, this is not a definite trading/investing signal. Trading is risky and should be taken at your own accord.
COMEX:SI1!Short
by TRADEPROAcademy
Silver (XAGUSD): Bullish pattern spotted.Silver (XAGUSD) is trading within a newly emerged Channel Up on the 1D chart (RSI = 60.617, MACD = 0.050, Highs/Lows = 0.2338) following the October 1st bottom just above the 1D Support Zone. Both the 1D candle action and the RSI sequence resembles and October/ November 2018 fractal which delivered a strong rise once the Channel Up broke. Our advice is to take a careful long approach towards 19.000 - 19.500 moving the stop loss on the Higher Low of the Channel each time to limit the potential loss while keeping a maximum gain perspective. Check out also how we expect its relationship with Gold to trade: ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
FX_IDC:XAGUSDLong
by InvestingScope
Silver has nested Bullish structures and long term support.The flagpole and falling wedge formation is very visible on Silver and many of the silver tickers have many posts about this formation and so I think we will see a lot of people playing that technically. I believe there is a strong case for the development of an acceding triangle developing within the falling wedge, which we have just began to trade out off. Acceding triangles are easy to see, but often are not the greatest of performers and the often get thrown back or bust. My linked silver post shows an acceding triangle that performed beautifully and then immediately dumped into the grave. Given the totality of what is going on with silver, negative interest rates, the falling dollar, I don't see Silver not performing to the upside in a sustained manner month over month. But these short term formation can still perform and proceed downward or bust outright. Things never go straight up and so the first place I would expect consolidation/retracement on the way up would be just shy of $19. The chart to the right shows we have found support high on the EMA ribbon. There was an attempted break through in July/August of 2016 and that was not sustained but as we currently have nested bullish structures and a flag pole I have a high degree of confidence that we will reach most of the way to our $22 target. My other posts have detailed how the 1M and 3M bollinger bands are going to provide a lot of technical resistance on the way to the full flagpole target. But the flagpole target is over 20% away and paper traders should be quite happy with those gains. Silver investors should think about buying before the break out because these levels may, after a year or so, literally never be seen ever again. Due to the very high possibility of continued negative interest rates around the world and soon within the United States I do not suspect we are in a situation shown by the shaded "X." Instead I think we are going to see a repeat of the Black and Green Arrows, only much faster. The first unsustained break of the EMA ribbon was in '97, and the second break which predicted the parabolic move was in '03. The fakeout to this current break are only three years apart, and I believe that due to the increase intervention in the market by the various central banks, on multiple levels, will see a multi-year parabolic move rather quickly. My linked post will be showing how I will be using the bollinger band to take profits on the way up, and future posts may show how I am using the gold and silver ratio to try and chase whatever is moving faster after I take profits. All the usual disclaimers apply, as I am not a certified market technician nor a financial advisor.
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by This_Guhy
4
Gold/ Silver ratio: One sharp fall left.The Gold/ Silver ratio is the proportional relationship between the respective spot prices of Gold and Silver. Put simply it describes how many ounces of silver can be bought with one ounce of gold. The ratio has been on a bearish trend since early July as Silver initiated a very aggressive cyclical rise and despite the early September decline on both metals, Silver continued to be the strongest of the two. Based on an identical pattern in 2016 when again the ratio was on a sharp bearish channel, we may have 1 more decline left before the downtrend is completed and the ratio reverses higher. As you see both formations have had a Death Cross before the start of the final bearish leg and the 1D MA200 (orange trend line) acted as the Resistance. Even the RSI patterns are very similar and at the moment we are at the peak before the last fall. Our advice is to shift your portfolio more into Silver and reverse when the RSI hits 30.00 - 25.00. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by InvestingScope
1
THE WEEK AHEAD: GDXJ, SI1!, GC1!, CL1!EARNINGS: Nothing is currently popping out on my screener that is highly liquid from an options standpoint and/or has ideal rank/implied metrics of >70% rank/>50% implied. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS Pictured here is what is becoming a broken record trade in GDXJ (63/37) -- a 35/43 short strangle in the November cycle paying 1.12 at the mid price (.66 at 50 max). As you can see, the premium's where it's been -- precious metals and oil. SLV (68/27) GLD (64/14) GDXJ (63/37) GDX (62/32) TLT (50/14) USO (37/39) XOP (34/40) BROAD MARKET SPY (28/17) IWM (25/21) DIA (21/17) QQQ (21/21) There's still a decent amount of time in the November cycle (40 days 'til expiry) to put something on in broad market if you missed the volatility pop last week. SPY November 15th 279/305 (20 delta), 3.71 credit. IWM November 15th 139/157 (18 delta), 1.97 credit. DIA November 15th 251/276 (18 delta call, 19 put), 3.00 credit. QQQ November 15th 177/198 (20 delta put, 19 call), 2.73 credit. FUTURES /SI (68/30) /GC (64/14) /6B (56/11) /ZB (50/10) /ZF (43/4) /ZN (42/5) /ZC (39/27) /CL (37/40) As with the exchange-traded funds, the volatility is in precious metals and oil. Although the ranks are high in the treasury complex, I'm not doing anything there due to the low background volatility, although I could see a bearish assumption directional shot in /ZN if we reach back to those 2019 highs. VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES I missed last week's 21.46 high to add bearish assumption, but we finished the week at 17.04, so another >20 VIX isn't out of the question.
AMEX:GDXJ
by NaughtyPines
Silver - Correction forming Parallel Channel - TargetSilver looks to be forming a descending parallel channel as price corrects from recent highs. I'm not going to pretend I'm an Elliot Wave expert, but the move up was a bullish impulse wave. The ABC correction is forming a parallel channel, which we can use for a possible entry if price breaks lower. The target also aligns closely to the 50% fib level, which I have found to be a fairly common retest level before trend continuation with Silver. 0.5 Fib also comes in just below $17, strong psychological number. End of the C would be the third touch of channel support and should coincide with the beginning f the next impulse wave up. The blue dashed trend-line which price is currently testing is from swing lows on the weekly chart (higher time-frame trend-line are usually well respected). It may offer a little bounce, but it doesn't look like sellers are done yet. Strong USD is keeping downward pressure on the metals. It's currently consolidating near YTD highs and isn't attracting a lot of selling.
OANDA:XAGUSD
by cccpKGB1
SILVER: New bull cycle or just a Lower High? See what to expect.A lot of discussion is going around on whether or not Silver has enter a new long term Bull Cycle. We are not against this possibility. But we thought it is useful to analyze also the scenario where XAGUSD is only on its way to a Lower High before diving even more on the long term and continue its multi year Bear Cycle. On the three charts you see the current price action on the 1W time frame followed by Patter A which shows the price action mostly in the 1980s when Silver was still in the Bear Cycle, making only a Lower High and then Pattern B which shows the late 1990s - early 2000s when Silver broke into its last Bull Cycle. All charts share some similar sequences: Peak (Lower High) on the Red Arrow Down, followed by a Channel Down (orange shape) and then accumulation after the bottom (eclipse shape). What followed in all charts is a very aggressive (non-stop) bullish 1W candle streak. What separates the patterns though and is the key in determining which phase Silver is currently at is the Golden Cross formation. On Pattern A it took place after the aggressive rise made a peak (Lower High) and then Silver extended the Bear Cycle. On Pattern B the Golden Cross took place before the aggressive rise made a peak. Then the price pulled back to the MA50, which held and supported Silver as it started its new Bull Cycle. We have to say that on these terms, the current price action resembles Pattern A more, as the Golden Cross hasn't taken place yet. However it is not at all impossible to be replicating Pattern B as Silver may continue this parabolic rise so aggressively and make the Golden Cross on much higher levels. We therefore would suggest investors to take a wait-and-see action and observe how the candle action will affect the MA periods. * If the price currently pulls back and tests the MA200 then we are most likely still within the Bear Cycle and Silver will extend the downtrend. * If it rises more and then pulls back to test the MA50 then we will most likely be starting a near Bull Cycle and investors can more safely enter into a long term trade. We will be analyzing Silver on a more regular short/ medium term basis so stay tuned for more trading set-ups. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
COMEX:SI1!
by InvestingScope
2
Silver Weekly Fibonacci Levels Well Respected Target $19.60Throughout the recent rally in silver, you can see that Fibonacci levels have well respected at every level. Pullbacks occurred at 0.236, 0.385, 0.5, 0.618, followed by a (sometimes short) period of consolidation. 0.786 ($19.60) will be a price level to watch, which may provide an opportunity to enter with trend on a pullback. If you follow this level back to 2016 you will see a cluster of candles that have weekly close price around this level indicating an area of significant resistance. As of now, all fundamentals support a move higher in the long run. Gold / Silver ratio has started to break down, which I mentioned in a previous idea.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by cccpKGB1
Silver - Bears desperate to protect weekly trend-line.You can see the battle over the blue dashed trend-line. This is an important trend-line from the weekly chart. A daily close above this line would suggest a bullish breakout. $17.50 (previous high would be the next resistance) Will post a weekly chart in the comments to show the trend-line I'm referring to. DXY hitting resistance so I expect a move higher. Price seems well supported even with DXY moving higher and near YTD highs....
SAXO:XAGUSDLong
by cccpKGB1