XAGUSD Massive success on last trade now looking for the next!Silver (XAGUSD) gave us a very successful sell trade on our last analysis (see chart below) on April 12:
The price rebounded right before hitting the 21.715 Pivot because it touched the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Even though May's rejection was done at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down that started in August 2020, we may witness the break-out above this bearish structure finally as since the August 29 2022 bottom, a Bullish Megaphone and later a Channel Up are guiding the price action.
On top of that, Silver is completing the first 1W Golden Cross since May 2020. In any case we will not jump on this impulsively but rather wait for a clear bullish break-out signal, which will be if a 1W candle closes above the Lower Highs trend-line. In this case we will target Resistance 1 (26.230) and Resistance 2 (26.935) respectively. If the price gets rejected on the Lower Highs instead, we will wait for a buy on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
Notice also the 1W MACD Bullish Cross that is about to be formed, indicating that a continuation of the current uptrend might be more probable than a rejection.
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Si1! (Silver Futures)
Silver: Let the show begin…! 🎪Ladies and Gentlemen, step right up and let the show begin! Please welcome silver, our brilliant artistic performer, in the arena that is our chart… See next: a somersault into the orange zone between $24.45 and $25.05 to finish wave iv in orange, followed by a brave downwards leap to complete wave v in orange as well as wave (a) in blue. Watch with bated breath as silver then spirals upwards again, stopped only by the mark at $25.41, where it should rebound and glide further downwards. There is a 30% chance, though, that silver could gain too much upwards momentum and thus soar above the mark at $25.41. In that case, we would expect it to reach a new high in the form of wave alt.x in magenta first before turning downwards again.
XAGUSD: Waiting for the MACD to give a buy signalSilver is trading inside a Channel Up pattern following the March 10th Low and the neutral 4H technicals (RSI = 48.188, MACD = 0.000, ADX = 33.202) indicate a short term buy opportunity. However, and despite the fact that the price hit the bottom of the Channel and is rebounding, it remains under the 4H MA50 for the past 24 hours and it requires the MACD to make a Bullish Cross in order to confirm the buy signal.
The smaller rise it has down inside the Channel Up is +5.70% so if the MACD gives that signal we will buy and target that range (TP = 26.150). If the price crossed under the Channel, we will sell and target the S1 (TP = 23.650).
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XAGUSD First major sell signal in 3 months!We had a blast with our buy signal on Silver (XAGUSD) in late February as we caught the exact bottom on the oversold 1D RSI:
Now the tide is turning as the STOCH RSI on the 1W time-frame is vastly overbought and is waving the first sell signal after more than 3 months. This doesn't mean that the price can't extend slightly its rise, but this is an optimal level to start adding sells based on our long-term strategy.
Right now the price is just above the 0.618 Fibonacci level, having broken above the dashed Lower Highs but is near the dotted Lower Highs. A max extension near the March 07 2022 High and the 0.786 Fib isn't likely but isn't unrealistic at the same time. As mentioned though, that is good enough for us to sell and as of today we switch back to being bearish on Silver, targeting initially the 2 year Pivot at 21.750.
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XAGUSD Approaching the 3 month ResistanceSilver is at a critical point as it is approaching Resistance (1) at 24.600 that is holding for the past 3 months.
The MA50 (1d) is flattened and is inside the Pivot Zone.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell as long as the price is closing under Resistance (1).
2. Buy if the price closes (as 1d candle) over Resistance (1).
Targets:
1. 22.250 (Pivot Zone).
2. 26.000 (under Resistance 2).
Tips:
1. RSI (1d) crossed over the 70.00 overbought level. Every such crossing always made a pull back to the Pivot Zone.
2. Long term the price is supported on a Rising Support. Unless this breaks, the long term trend is bullish.
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XAGUSD Sell as it approaches the 2021 Falling Resistance.XAGUSD/ Silver is on a 2 week rise after rebounding on the Rising Support.
The price is now approaching the Falling Resistance that started on February 1st 2021.
We expect a correction back to the Rising Support and bottom of the Pivot Zone.
Target 21.000.
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Head and Shoulders on Silver bearish price to target $16.30Head and Shoulders officially formed on Daily.
The previous analysis, we were waiting for the pattern to form a Right Shoulder.
Now with the price breaking below the RS, almost confirms the trade entry.
21>7
Price <200 - Bearish (Red back)
RSI<30 - Bearish
Target $16.30
XAGUSD Our great masterplan continues to work to perfection.Since early last year, we have been following a certain buy low/ sell high approach on Silver (XAGUSD) after we identified that it has been trading inside a 2-year Channel Down:
We most recently turned bearish again on precisely the right time on our previous January 31 sell call:
Right now however, with the price having broken on Friday below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since November 30, it hit the 20.625 Support formed by the November 21 Low. This is potentially the formation of the Right Shoulder of a giant Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern. With the 1D RSI deep below the oversold barrier, this is were we will attempt our first medium term buy targeting the (green) Symmetrical Resistance Zone and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), any of the two gets hit first.
We will attempt an additional buy entry near the Higher Lows trend-line (holding since the September 01 Low), as this would complete a -19.50% decline, similar to the June 06 - July 14 pattern. Its target was a +15.10% rise to the 0.618 Fibonacci, but again we will settle for just the (green) Symmetrical Resistance Zone and the 1D MA50 as targets.
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Silver just gave a strong sell signal with fundamentalsHead and Shoulders formed on the daily of Silver.
The price could next head on up to trap the bulls before the downside (forming a Right shoulder).
21>7 MA
Price <200 - Bearish (Red back)
RSI<30 - Bearish
Target $16.30
ABOUT Silver and why the price could drop
Silver is a precious metal that has been used for coins, jewelry, and decorative purposes for thousands of years.
Silver is a valuable industrial metal, used in a variety of applications such as electronics, solar panels, and batteries.
The price of silver is influenced by supply and demand factors, such as the amount of silver available for sale and the level of demand from investors and industrial users.
If investors perceive that there is less inflation risk or less economic uncertainty, they may shift their investments away from precious metals like silver, which could cause the price to drop. Now that inflation is slowing easing, this is why people could be shifting their money to other markets.
The value of the US dollar, which is often inversely related to the price of silver, can impact the metal's price. If the dollar strengthens, the price of silver normally drops where investors seek other investment options.
If there is a decrease in geopolitical tensions or risks, investors may shift their investment focus away from precious metals like silver, which could cause the price to drop.
XAGUSD: Bearish. Has more space to drop before a rebound.Silver is completely bearish on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 30.745, MACD = -0.501, ADX = 35.018) with the RSI almost oversold. The long term pattern since early 2021 is a Channel Down and the last time inside this pattern the 1D RSI hit 30.000 was on September 1st 2022, which was a market bottom and Lower Low on the Channe Down.
In order to help us get a better understanding if this is a buy zone, we have identified all other times the the 1D RSI broke below 30.000. Those circles as shown on the chart, most of the times have made the price rebound instantly and hit the 1D MA50 but on two occassions, the price dipped significantly more before it rebounded. One was on April 27th 2022, which was a sequence similar to what we experience today as the price was also coming off a Lower High on this multi year Channel Down.
The blue zone that supported the initial peak fall on the 1D MA200 during the June 18th 2021 oversold RSI, didn't do so in April 2022 and XAGUSD fell significantly more to almost reach the 0.786 Fibonacci level, before making the bounce to almost hit the 1D MA50. The 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci Zone (green zone) held in 2021 as well.
Our long term strategy on Silver is based exactly on this. We will buy on the 4H MA200 and will target the 1D MA50 (TP = 22.500) but if the price crosses under the blue zone, we will take the loss and short to the middle of the green zone, where we'll take a short term buy again to the 1D MA50. The risk is low due to the SL placement while the reward is high.
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XAGUSD Hanging on a tight thread about to turn bearish.Silver (XAGUSD) couldn't have gone better since our September 12 buy signal as following the Lower Lows Double Bottom, it not only broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 ( orange trend-line), but also made a new Extreme High on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension .
As you see, we've charted Silver's pattern since February 01 2021, which is a Channel Down, most effectively viewed using the Fibonacci channel levels. This is basically the pattern we used to analyze the metal 3 months ago, and it helped us call accurately that bullish break-out.
At the moment, with a slight modification to better adapt to the new Highs and Lows, we see that Silver is has been pushing downwards on the 1.382 Fib treating it as strong of a Resistance so far as the March 08 High during the Ukraine - Russia war. Now of course the fundamentals are not the same but technically since the price broke below the 1D MA50, the confirmation of the downtrend will come if it breaks inside the Ichimoku Cloud, which is exactly where today's low hit. That was the Bearish Signal on the April 19 2022 Ichimoku breach.
If that happens, we can see a nose-dive even as low as the 0.382 Channel Fib. Notice also how the RSI on the 1W time-frame is being rejected on the Resistance Zone which since February 2021 was rejected and formed all major Lower Highs of this Channel Down.
In order for us to call for a bullish extension and invalidation of this long-term bearish trend, we ideally want to see XAGUSD closing above the 0.786 horizontal Fib, which failed to get tested during the March was High. In that case we will target initially the 26.900 March High on the short-term.
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SI1! ( Silver Futures ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Silver Futures (SI1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 24.775
Pivot: 706.50
Support: 23.140
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SI1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the resistance at 24.775, where the recent high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the support at 23.140 where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
XAGUSD Hit the extreme top of the 2 year Channel Down.Silver (XAGUSD) couldn't have gone better since our September 12 buy signal as following the Lower Lows Double Bottom, it not only broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), but also made a new Extreme High on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension.
As you see, we've charted Silver's pattern since February 01 2021, which is a Channel Down, most effectively viewed using the Fibonacci channel levels. This is basically the pattern we used to analyze the metal 3 months ago, and it helped us call accurately that bullish break-out.
So what now? With a slight modification to better adapt to the new Highs and Lows, we see that the rejection 3 days ago is so far as strong as the March 08 High during the Ukraine - Russia war. Now of course the fundamentals are not the same but technically as long as the price is below the 1.382 Channel Fib, we should see a 1D MA50/ MA200 test, at least on the short-term. If after that the price fails to regain the 1D MA50, we can even see a nose-dive back to the 0.382 Channel Fib.
Notice also how the RSI on the 1W time-frame just entered the Resistance Zone which since February 2021 was rejected and formed all major Lower Highs of this Channel Down.
In order for us to call for a bullish extension and invalidation of this long-term bearish trend, we ideally want to see XAGUSD not just closing above the 1.382 Channel Fib but above the 0.786 horizontal Fib, which failed to get tested during the March was High. In that case we will target initially the 26.900 March High on the short-term.
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XAGUSD Huge sell opportunitySilver (XAGUSD) has been trading since September exactly like we wanted it to, as we have been tracking its long-term Channel Down pattern correctly:
Our 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) target has been hit, with the price also marginally breaking above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down (Fibonacci level 1.0). That doesn't call for a bullish extension towards the 1.382 Fib like the Ukraine - Russia was extreme did, as the price quickly retraced back below the 1D MA200.
This continues to replicate the rebound after the Internal Lower Lows, which is the fractal that helped us take that buy trade on September. That sequence, following the 1D MA200 rejection, pulled-back to the 0.236 Fibonacci level. Since the current top on the September - November bullish leg was made a Fib level higher, we are setting the targeted low higher as well, on the 0.382 Fib instead of the 0.236.
The next buy opportunity would be when the 1D RSI hits the 30.000 oversold barrier again.
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SILVER: Can collapse if this level is not recoveredThis is a long term outlook on Silver/ XAGUSD and its weekly chart. There is a pending Death Cross on the 1W time frame (blue MA50 to cross below the orange MA200). The 1W RSI pattern points towards the 1979 - 1989 Cycle where its 2nd Death Cross started a new multi year collapse that made a new market low.
This can be avoided only if the metal breaks above its invalidation level that is on its last Lower High (around 27.000). See on your own that the 1W Death Crosses in the past have been invalidated only above the last Lower High. Those that didn't kept Silver in Bear Markets. Until that happens, selling the rallies is our strategy.
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Sliver Futures (SI! ), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumType: Bearish Momentum
Resistance: 19.965
Pivot: 18.830
Support: 17.495
Preferred Case: The H4 price is below ichimoku cloud, The price may drop form the pivot at 18.830, where the overlap resistance is to the 1st support at 17.495 where the swing low sits
Alternative scenario: If there is a price reversal, price will move to 19.965, where the overlap resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.
Fundamentals: There are no major news