BTC ETF Approval. Expect the Unexpected.Happy New Year Traders!
With the likelihood of Bitcoin ETF approval in the cards, there are a plentitude of zealous crypto traders on the crypto rocket anticipating destination moon. But what if it doesn't turn out the way everyone expects? What if the MMs shake out the pockets of dumb money and over-leveraged moon boys? Or worse yet, ETF approvals are delayed yet again? Nothing is really certain until it's settled. In this episode, we're going to discuss a few indications that the possibility of more sideways to down action is really not that far-fetched. Understanding this perspective can help us to trade safely and avoid being rekt.
SEC
Bitcoin - BTCUSDT - In Wedge PatternGreetings,
BTC has been struggling to breakout and then stay above $44K. With time since the previous move above $38K resistance, the top trendline has been descending. Along with that, the recent bounces have created an ascending bottom trendline. If we extend this bottom trendline back, it aligns well with the previous resistance very well which makes it a strong support.
These two lines are converging on Jan 10, 2024 which is the deadline for SEC's decision on Bitcoin ETF's - too much of a coincidence?
Anyway this convergence is creating a wedge pattern which typically gives 50/50 chance to both up and down move. However as mentioned, the bottom trendline is a strong support and has a steeper angle so we would give a slight edge to bulls here.
With SEC's decision coming up in a few days, we expect high volatility in the markets. All investors should manage their risk. From our end, we will provide our analysis as frequently as we can. Please SUBSCRIBE to stay up to date!
Note: This is not financial advise and shall only be used for educational and/or entertainment purpose. Please do your own research before investing. Crypto Markets are highly volatile and you are responsible for the risk of losing your entire investment.
BTCUSDT Next big resistance
1. Current Trend : Bitcoin is currently experiencing a minor bullish trend, which means its price is gradually increasing.
2. Short-term Price Movement : There is an anticipation of a temporary pullback in Bitcoin's price. This pullback refers to a short-term decline in the price, which is normal in financial markets even during an overall upward trend.
3. Institutional Investment Strategy: The expected pullback is seen as a strategic opportunity for larger investors or institutions. These entities are predicted to buy Bitcoin during this dip in price, with the intention of investing at a lower cost.
4. Impact of SEC's ETF Approval: A key factor in this prediction is the potential approval of a Bitcoin ETF by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The approval of a Bitcoin ETF would likely lead to increased demand and higher prices, as it would make Bitcoin more accessible and legitimate to a wider range of investors, including those who prefer traditional investment vehicles.
5. Post-ETF Approval Scenario : Assuming the SEC approves the Bitcoin ETF, the prediction is that Bitcoin's price will see a significant increase. This rise would be fueled by the influx of new investors and increased mainstream acceptance.
6. Long-term Outlook: The long-term outlook for Bitcoin, post-ETF approval, is positive. As more institutions and individual investors gain confidence and invest in Bitcoin, its price is expected to stabilize at a higher level than its pre-ETF approval price.
In conclusion, this prediction sees a short-term pullback in Bitcoin's price as a strategic buying opportunity for institutions, leading up to a significant rise in value following the potential SEC approval of a Bitcoin ETF. This scenario is contingent on several factors, particularly regulatory developments, and thus carries inherent uncertainty typical of financial market predictions.
Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval In SightBitcoin Spot ETF Approval In Sight As SEC Advances Talks With Asset Managers.
SEC's advanced talks signal potential Bitcoin Spot ETF approval, paving the way for investor engagement in the tightly regulated market.
In a significant development, talks between U.S. regulators and major asset managers regarding Bitcoin Spot ETF have progressed to crucial technical details. This signals a potential shift in the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) stance toward approving exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking the BTC price.
Meanwhile, 13 firms including Grayscale, BlackRock, Invesco, and ARK Investments, with pending applications, are at the forefront of these discussions.
Bitcoin Spot ETF Discussions Progress As SEC Engages In Advanced Talks
The SEC, historically cautious about approving cryptocurrency-related products, is now delving into intricate aspects like custody arrangements, creation and redemption mechanisms, and investor risk disclosures, Reuters reported citing industry executives.
Meanwhile, this shift follows a court ruling stating the SEC’s error in rejecting Grayscale’s ETF application, prompting the SEC to engage more substantively with ETF issuers.
Investors eyeing regulated avenues to invest in Bitcoin see ETFs as an optimal solution. A Bitcoin Spot ETF approval would open the gates for wary investors to access the cryptocurrency through the tightly regulated stock market, with an anticipated demand of up to $3 billion in the initial days.
Meanwhile, executives from major firms, including BlackRock, Grayscale, Invesco, and 21 Shares, working with ARK, have been meeting with SEC staff since September. According to the report, recent discussions, previously focused on Bitcoin’s susceptibility to manipulation, now encompass nuanced technicalities.
In addition, memos reveal an acceleration in the SEC’s information requests and meetings even at the office of SEC Chair Gary Gensler. Notably, the recent bullish trend in Bitcoin prices aligns with the positive trajectory of these discussions.
Meanwhile, the SEC must make a conclusive decision on ARK’s filing by January 10, given its priority status. According to the industry executives, the in-depth nature of these discussions suggests a potential approval of ARK’s application and possibly several others among the remaining 12 in the coming New Year.
Challenges And Future Prospects
While optimism surrounds these developments, the SEC remains tight-lipped about potential approvals. Key concerns, such as the settlement mechanism of whether cash or “in-kind”, still pose challenges. In addition, SEC Chair Gary Gensler, a crypto skeptic, has not provided a timeline for decision-making but acknowledged the agency’s consideration of Bitcoin ETF filings.
However, some see the Grayscale ruling as limiting grounds for rejections, adding to the momentum. Notably, issuers, confident in addressing market manipulation concerns through surveillance arrangements with exchanges like Coinbase, await a potential breakthrough.
Meanwhile, the evolving dynamics between the SEC and ETF issuers suggest a paradigm shift in the regulatory landscape, opening new avenues for investors to engage with Bitcoin.
Updated with Levels. (We stay LONG!)Hello, Traders! 👋
First of all there is a video explaining this chart:
While we delve into Bitcoin chart, it's crucial to address the elephant in the room: Binance's recent legal woes:
Binance, helmed by Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, faced a significant setback with a $4.3 billion penalty for violating anti-money laundering and sanctions laws. CZ himself pleaded guilty and agreed to a $50 million fine, stepping down as CEO. Such events remind us of the ever-evolving landscape of crypto trading. 🌍⚖️
Key Takeaways:
Binance's Legal Challenges:
The world's largest crypto exchange's troubles underscore the importance of regulatory compliance in the crypto sphere. This situation might impact market sentiment, so let's stay vigilant. 🚨📉 news link
Impact on Bitcoin:
Despite these external pressures, Bitcoin shows resilience. We're closely monitoring how these developments might influence BTC's support and resistance levels. 📊💪
Technical Analysis Breakdown:
Channel Dynamics: Amidst the market uncertainties, our focus on the channel's middle as a significant support/resistance level remains steadfast. 🔄
Fibonacci Insights:
The $37,600 mark is a key level. We're bullish above and bearish below this point, navigating the waves of market reaction to Binance's news. 🐂🐻
Fundamental Factors:
The crypto world is adapting to regulatory shifts. With such changes, fundamentals like ETFs and Fed policies become even more crucial. 🌟📈
Trading Strategy:
Adapting to Changes: The Binance situation might cause market ripples. Stay adaptive and ready for potential shifts in our trading strategies. 🔄🎯
Long vs. Short: Bullish above $36,000; bearish below. We're watching how the market digests Binance's news and its impact on BTC. 📈📉
The Big Picture:
Keeping our long-term view, we aim for the $46,000-$49,000 range, while being cautious of interim dips. 🎢📊
Final Thoughts:
In these tumultuous times, remember the power of hedging. Balance your positions to navigate through this dynamic market landscape. 🛡️⚖️
Stay tuned for more updates, and let's sail through these challenging crypto seas together! 🚢💼
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR ♡
FUD: Fear, uncertainty and doubt:
I like to say Despair, it reflects most of the leveraged traders emotions better than just 'Doubt'.... ( ps. the last SEC FUD:
)
27/11/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $38451.2
Last weeks low: $37035.2
Midpoint: $35619.1
Bitcoin continues its choppy price action as the 38.5k resistance remains intact despite 4 separate attempts to break above.
This type of price action has allowed other altcoins to run up double digit gains, however the microcaps and meme coins are benefiting the most in recent days and that usually spells a big move for BTC is coming soon.
Consolidation under key resistance along with multiple attempts chipping away at the key level point towards a break above 38.5k soon. If this were the case I do think care would need to be taken in going long as the bulls do seem to be running out of steam as of late as investors/traders look to sell positive news instead of adding to longs, a sign of an exhausted rally.
Personally I think a bull trap would be the most painful move the market could make here, a swing fail pattern taking liquidity above resistance before falling back down and giving us a healthy correction going into the new year, perhaps targeting 32.5k area.
We also still have the looming ETF decision which would kickstart the real Bullrun, however I do believe should that happen there would be more FUD on the lead up to that decisions so institutional investors can get BTC at a better price. It did seem like that was the goal with the BINANCE hearing last week however the market did not react as negatively as the SEC would have hoped.
Navigating Bitcoin's Surge with a Keen Eye on the SEC's Next MovBitcoin is defying expectations, carving a path through the $38K barrier with the tenacity of a bull. The recent rally from $36,886 to $38,437 wasn't just a fluke; it's a statement. Even more compelling is Bitcoin's graceful dance above the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $37,662, dismissing any doubts about its current strength.
Away from the charts, the SEC's recent decision to delay the Bitcoin ETF ruling to 2024 has stirred the pot. But instead of a setback, it seems to have injected a curious mix of caution and anticipation into the market. The buzz around institutional investors' potential new avenue into Bitcoin has some pundits dreaming of a $40k weekend – a bold call, but not unwarranted.
So, what's next for Bitcoin? If we slice through the 0.382 Fib level at $37,845, we're looking at a series of intriguing possibilities:
- First Stop: $38,437, where Bitcoin last took a breather.
- Onward to: $39,029, blending optimism with cold, hard math.
- Then maybe: $39,396, where Fibonacci's legacy meets crypto reality.
- And if we're lucky: $40,947, where we align with expert forecasts and round-number charm.
As traders, we find ourselves at the intersection of intricate chart patterns and the unfolding drama of regulatory decisions. It's essential to keep a close eye on both because this dance between the technicals and the fundamentals is what will drive Bitcoin's journey in the days ahead.
FTT: Forgive The Trickery - When SEC Overlooks Mischiefs 🎭🔍In a world where market dynamics often border on the theatrical, FTT token finds itself in the spotlight. 🌟 Let's dive into the nuances of this intriguing crypto token, against a backdrop of regulatory oversight and market maneuvers.
📉 A Closer Look at the Charts:
Shorting Opportunity at $7.8: Our analysis indicates a ripe shorting opportunity at around $7.8. This level is not just a number; it's a reflection of market sentiment and technical strength (or lack thereof).
Breakout Point - "Biden Revives the Zombie": In contrast, there's a breakout level which, if crossed, could lead to a significant surge in FTT's value. We're watching this space closely!
🌐 Contextual Insights:
The Binance and FTX Saga: Recent developments have seen traders shifting away from tokens like BNB and FTT. The reasons? Regulatory pressures and market uncertainty. This article sheds more light on the trend.
Regulatory Glare: The SEC's recent actions, especially the fine against Binance, have stirred the pot in the crypto world. Adding to this is the continuing saga of FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried, as detailed here.
🚦 Regulatory Oversight or Oversight?
The dance between the SEC and crypto entities like FTX is intricate. Are we witnessing a case of "forgive the trickery" as the SEC navigates through a maze of regulatory challenges and market realities?
How FTT maneuvers through these turbulent waters, amidst the SEC's gaze, could be a tell-tale sign of its future trajectory.
As the crypto market continues its unpredictable journey, FTT stands as a symbol of the complexities and intrigues that define this space. Whether it's regulatory challenges or market dynamics, FTT's path is one to watch. 📈
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR ♡
ps. I would like to go SHORT on this one and post it as a Bearish idea but with Blackrock ready to enter and their need for an American exchange i do not dare... will trade it in due time, no worries!
Market Update - November 22, 2023
Bitcoin and crypto markets react to the Binance settlement: Bitcoin (BTC) prices and the wider crypto market saw a sudden drop on Tuesday morning after news broke that the DOJ was set to announce crypto enforcement action at a 3pm ET press conference. Following reports of the Binance settlement, BTC broke below the $37k level to as low as ~$35.8k later Tuesday evening. As of Wednesday morning, BTC is hovering in the mid FWB:36K range.
Binance will pay $4.3 billion and Changpeng Zhao steps down as CEO: On Tuesday, in a tectonic move for the world’s largest crypto exchange, Binance agreed to a $4.3 billion fine to resolve federal criminal charges in the US. Now-former CEO Changpeng Zhao “CZ”, also agreed to step down and pay a $50 million fine. Richard Teng is the new CEO of Binance. In a press conference, attended by top federal regulators including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and CFTC chairman Rostin Behnam, US Attorney General Merrick Garland outlined the charges against Binance and settlement terms. The charges included sanctions violations, running an unlicensed money transmitter business, and failing to maintain an adequate anti-money laundering (AML) program.
Coindesk sold to crypto exchange Bullish: Coindesk, a leading crypto news site that first reported on the FTX balance sheet shortfall, was purchased by crypto exchange Bullish for an undisclosed all-cash amount. Coindesk was previously owned by crypto company Digital Currency Group (DCG).
SEC sues Kraken for running unregistered securities exchange: On Monday, the Securities and Exchange Committee (SEC) sued crypto exchange Kraken, alleging that it operated as an unregistered securities exchange and created a “significant risk” by commingling customer crypto deposits with its own corporate assets.
Tether freezes $225 million in coordination with DOJ: Also on Monday, it was announced that Tether, the issuer of the largest stablecoin, USDT, had frozen $225 million of USDT following a DOJ investigation into an international human trafficking ring based out of Southeast Asia.
🖼️ Topic of the Week: Cryptoart, NFTs, and the Art Industry
➡️ Read more here
#XRP - Target $1.50 for first part of major breakoutThe longterm chart of XRP is extremely bullish
I think there is a good chance we have a bull flag about to break, that will target the high form last July
This level is our High 3 in a massive #HVF pattern
and the key trigger to take us to Major Target 1 of $1.50 (log target)
🚀 BNB's Liquidity Power: Breaking Through Heights! 💰Binance Coin (BNB) is gearing up for a spectacular ascent, fueled not just by its technical strength but a reservoir of liquidity waiting to be unlocked. The recent legal resolution in the U.S. is adding another layer of intrigue to BNB's narrative. Let's delve into the liquidity dynamics and the implications of the legal verdict on BNB's trajectory.
Chart Analysis: BNB's Liquidity Bonanza
BNB has amassed a remarkable pool of liquidity, especially notable above the $350 mark. The charts reveal a tantalizing scenario where breaching this level could pave the way for a smooth ascent to $700. The layers of liquidity provide both challenges and opportunities for traders navigating BNB's vibrant landscape.
Legal Twist: Binance's Verdict Impact
In a recent legal development, Binance received a verdict in the U.S. legal proceedings, necessitating a hefty payout of $4 billion. Surprisingly, rather than dampening spirits, this news seems to have injected a bullish fervor into BNB. Markets interpret the resolution as a step toward regulatory clarity, removing a lingering uncertainty.
Trading Strategy: Unveiling BNB's Potential Surge
For traders eyeing BNB, the $350 level is the initial battleground, where the liquid battleground awaits. A successful breach opens the gateway to explore the uncharted territories around $700. The legal resolution, despite the hefty payout, is seen by many as a positive step, potentially clearing regulatory fog for BNB.
Conclusion: BNB's Dual Catalysts
BNB, armed with both technical strength and a wealth of liquidity, is standing at a crossroads. The $350 level, laden with liquidity, serves as a key test for the bulls. Simultaneously, the legal resolution, though costly, could pave the way for increased institutional confidence, potentially catalyzing BNB's upward trajectory.
📈 BNB Analysis | 💰 Liquidity Layers | ⚖️ Legal Verdict Catalyst
❗See related ideas below❗
Are you ready to ride the liquidity wave with BNB? Share your insights and strategies ! 💚🚀💚
TONCOIN - Top 10 Crypto Market Cap PotentialTon Targets - Support and Resistance Zones.
Support Zone: $2.275
Resistance Zone 1: $2.55 - $2.65
Target 1: $2.80
Previous Top Resistance Zone: $3.01 - $3.35
Potential Bull Run Target 1: $4.85
Toncoin (TON) is a layer-1 blockchain that emerged back in 2018 from the creators of the secure messaging app Telegram. The project underwent a transformation after being handed over to the TON Foundation, leading to a name change from "Telegram Open Network" to "The Open Network."
Since 2020, the tech has seen progress thanks to a group of enthusiasts working without commercial interests, forming the TON Foundation. Toncoin, previously called Gram, serves as the native cryptocurrency on the TON network.
Originally, the plan was to integrate TON into a user-friendly app enabling fund transactions for users. Users pay fees and employ TON for transaction validation and payments. The Toncoin network relies on the proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus model to ensure scalability and dependability. As per the project's website, the platform offers swift, transparent, and secure payment services, making transactions cost-effective and eliminating the need for third-party apps.
XRP - Ripple - WEF backed ProjectFirst major confluence level
$.75 Breakout target / Entry
$.856 Confirmation of breakout Extension
Target 1: $1.20
Target 2: $1.46
Not a huge fan of XRP, but I will concede the sheer amount of government connections the team has is definitely something to look into, its feverish fan base will no doubt pump it to new heights this bull run.
It hasn't died yet and to me that is indicative of the fact it will continue to survive and thirive.
Launched in 2021, the XRP Ledger (XRPL) is an open-source, permissionless and decentralized technology. Benefits of the XRP Ledger include its low-cost ($0.0002 to transact), speed (settling transactions in 3-5 seconds), scalability (1,500 transactions per second) and inherently green attributes (carbon-neutral and energy-efficient). The XRP Ledger also features the first decentralized exchange (DEX) and custom tokenization capabilities built into the protocol. Since 2012, the XRP Ledger has been operating reliably, having closed 70 million ledgers.
Unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum, the XRPL uses a unique Federated Consensus mechanism as its method of validating transactions. Transactions are confirmed on the XRPL through a consensus protocol, in which designated independent servers called validators come to an agreement on the order and outcome of XRP transactions. All servers in the network process each transaction according to the same rules, and any transaction that follows the protocol is confirmed right away. All transactions are public and transparent, and anyone can operate a validator. There are currently over 150 validators on the ledger, operated by universities, exchanges, businesses, and individuals around the world.
Through the Federated Consensus mechanism, all verified transactions can be processed without a single point of failure as no single participant makes a decision independently.
XRP - BULLISH CHANNELRenewed interest in XRP is driven by three key indicators: a significant surge in real trading volume, a shift from declining to bullish market capitalization, and a consistent pattern of higher daily price lows. These positive signs point to a potential price surge, despite past challenges and legal developments surrounding XRP's CEO, Brad Garlinghouse. Investors are closely watching these developments for investment opportunities.
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Bitcoin SV (BSV) Breaks Out of Slump, Soars 64% in Just 30 DaysThe post Bitcoin SV (BSV) Breaks Out of Slump, Soars 64% in Just 30 Days appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News Bitcoin SV (BSV) has caught the crypto world’s eye with a remarkable 64% gain in the past month, thanks to its inclusion on Binance, one of the world’s top cryptocurrency exchanges.
This substantial increase came after BSV’s split from Bitcoin Cash (BCH) in late 2018, pushing its current trading price to $52.04, up significantly from just $34.08 a week ago.
BSV‘s Impact
BSV, a significant Bitcoin (BTC) fork and a proof-of-work (PoW) cryptocurrency in 2023, is making waves in October 2023, reaching a peak value of over $58 on major spot markets.
The key driver behind this surge is BSV’s listing on Binance, a major crypto exchange. BSV hasn’t seen such heights since mid-September 2022, and it’s not just a one-day wonder. BSV has been on a winning streak, climbing over 90% since its boost on September 27th.
It’s important to remember that BSV hit an all-time high of $491.64 during the last crypto craze but then took a hit, losing over 95% of its value. Now, it’s finding its stride again, especially after rumors of a Bitcoin ETF adoption.
SEC Steps In the Picture
The recent rise in Bitcoin SV’s (BSV) value has some experts linking it to the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF by the U.S. SEC.
This surge happens amidst ongoing disputes within the BSV community, most notably the resignation of Christen Ager-Hanssen, a prominent BSV supporter, from his role as CEO of nChain due to disagreements with BSV leader Craig Wright.
This surge sets the stage for possible new investors and a challenge against the formidable barrier at $61.99. Bitcoin SV’s journey remains captivating as it navigates the cryptocurrency market’s ups and downs.
Ripple's Resilience and Ambition: An In-Depth Look at XRP's caseOver the past few weeks, Ripple, the company behind the native token XRP, has been making waves in the cryptocurrency landscape. The convergence of several key developments has provided a bullish momentum for the company, strengthening its position and offerings in the digital asset arena. This article aims to dissect these significant developments and their potential ramifications.
1. Ripple Acquires Metaco: Expanding its Digital Asset Custody Capabilities
In a strategic move that underscores its commitment to growth and innovation in the digital asset space, Ripple acquired Swiss custody startup, Metaco for $250 million. Renowned for its secure digital asset management expertise across various applications, including blockchain technology, Metaco's incorporation into Ripple's operations promises to enrich its product offerings. This acquisition positions Ripple as an even more attractive option to financial institutions and individual users seeking comprehensive solutions for digital asset management.
2. Ripple Acquires Minority Stake in Bitstamp
Ripple has recently acquired a minority stake in Bitstamp, one of the oldest cryptocurrency exchanges, previously owned by Pantera Capital. The specifics of the transaction remain undisclosed, but the move reflects Ripple's intent to expand its global presence and diversify beyond payments. This strategic investment strengthens Ripple's long-standing relationship with Bitstamp, which has served as a gateway for Ripple's XRP token.
3. Ripple Unveils Its Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Platform
As countries worldwide show heightened interest in developing their digital currencies, Ripple has launched a dedicated platform for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). This innovative platform, built on a new private ledger that harnesses the power of the XRP Ledger, offers an end-to-end solution to central banks, governments, and financial institutions seeking to issue and manage their digital currencies. Ripple's CBDC Platform brings several advantages: ledger technology, issuer, operator, and end-user wallets are all part of the package. This comprehensive solution simplifies issuing and managing digital currencies, positioning Ripple as a critical partner for institutions venturing into CBDCs.
4. Ripple Unveils Its Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Platformament to Ripple's Technological Prowess
Ripple's commitment to the CBDC space has been further reinforced with its inclusion in the Hong Kong e-HKD Pilot Program. As the only representative from the crypto sector, Ripple will leverage its extensive knowledge and experience in the settlement of tokenized assets. This involvement validates Ripple's technological capabilities and provides a real-world testing ground for its CBDC platform, potentially paving the way for future partnerships with central banks and governments.
5. SEC Court Rulings Favor Ripple: A Potential Game Changer
Recent court rulings have increasingly favored Ripple in the ongoing legal dispute between Ripple and the SEC, possibly setting a precedent for future cryptocurrency regulations. Central to the case is the Hinman letter, named after former SEC official William Hinman, who suggested in a 2018 speech that Ethereum should not be classified as a security. Ripple has sought public access to related internal SEC documents, believing they could support their defense that XRP, like Ethereum, isn't a security. On May 16, 2023, the court ordered these documents to be unsealed by June 13, 2023. Ripple's legal commitment, demonstrated by its projected $200 million in legal expenditures and recent victories and contradictions in SEC statements, may bolster its case that XRP is a digital currency, not a security. Despite the uncertainty surrounding the case's outcome, a win for Ripple could have far-reaching implications for the cryptocurrency industry. It could help solidify XRP's legal status in the US market.
Summary and price action
Ripple has proven its resilience and ambition through strategic initiatives, court victories, and partnerships. These developments, from acquiring Metaco and launching a CBDC platform to winning key court rulings and participating in Hong Kong's e-HKD Pilot Program, illustrate Ripple's potential to shape the future of digital currencies. The recent acquisition of a stake in Bitstamp further highlights Ripple's commitment to expanding its influence in the global cryptocurrency space. With these recent developments, Ripple strategically positions itself at the forefront of the rapidly evolving digital asset industry.
XRP has outperformed the entire market since the November 2021 peak, as it was one of the few tokens/coins that hadn't pumped much compared to the rest. In November 2020, XRP got hit by the SEC lawsuit and was delisted by all US exchanges, while most other coins remained on these platforms. Now Ripple is close to potentially even winning its case against the SEC, with some essential information coming out today, while the rest of the market is just starting to deal with the SEC. As seen by XRPUSD and XRPBTC, it looks like the chart is a massive accumulation base that is ready to explode higher. It seems like the market knows something and is anticipating a positive outcome from the court case. The SEC may lose many of its issues (against Ripple, Grayscale, and Coinbase), and these could boost the market massively. So even if Ripple loses this case, more fights could turn things around for XRP and the entire crypto market. Again, as XRP doesn't have to deal with delistings and is ahead of the curve, it is less risky than other coins/tokens, which might have a different fate.
Predicting Crypto's Journey Amid LawsuitsBefore anyone reads this idea, I'd recommend reading my previous two ideas about Coinbase and Grayscale. Definitely worth the read to get a better grasp of the current situation. The main ideas I will analyze are that the SEC suing Coinbase and Binance are the final things that had to happen before a Bitcoin ETF would be approved and that the SEC could lose some of its court battles against crypto companies. Then I will close with some solid technical and fundamental analysis of the current price action.
Wall Street Interests and the SEC's Anti-Crypto Native Firms Stance
The SEC seems to be trapped, as it has too many court cases open and won't be able to win all of them. It's currently struggling against Coinbase and its demands for clear regulations and, in its case against Grayscale too, which seems to be doing well in court. Against Grayscale and Coinbase, the SEC's cases are very weak. It's clear that the SEC was just stalling everything and damaging the US industry in the short to medium term so that the TradFi guys could take control. Now they've reached their limit, as the industry is coming together and attacking it en mass. The political pressure against the SEC has been mounting, which is why Blackrock has filed for its Bitcoin ETF. It's no coincidence that TradFi firms are coming out after the recent lawsuits and talking about how they want to get involved. The CFTC approved futures related products for Coinbase and the Cboe, confirming that other major players might want to be engaged at a higher level. Essentially it's not the SEC being anti-crypto; it's just the SEC being anti-crypto native firms and wanting to pave the way for Wall Street.
Securities, Market Manipulation, and the Complexities of SEC Approval
What's been super clear is that BTC isn't a commodity; however, for an ETF to be approved, the SEC had to deal with all shady exchanges and practices in the US. It would be impossible for them not to have dealt with Binance before approving an ETF. To me, it's clear that many of the services Coinbase and Binance are offering are securities, and it's also been clear that Binance has done many shady things in the past. The main issues for the SEC to approve an ETF would be that these exchanges would be trading securities along with Bitcoin, and market manipulation or an FTX-like collapse would create many issues. What is positive for Coinbase and Binance, though, despite my opinion about what is a security and what is not, is that the SEC approved of Coinbase's business model before it went public and that to this day, it still doesn't offer clear guidance for crypto firms.
Anticipated SEC Lawsuits and the Impact on Coinbase and Binance
Something significant to note is that nothing that has happened with Coinbase and Binance wasn't expected. We've had so much news about the SEC potentially suing both that it was almost priced in. Alts clearly got shocked, and they might feel even more pain if the SEC wins against Ripple, as some will probably be deemed securities. Yet beyond that, I don't think the SEC will get everything it wants. It has failed so spectacularly that the US judges won't be able to give it all it wants. It might have some wins, but overall, there is no way that it can damage the US industry too much. Of course, it can deal substantial damage; however, even if the SEC itself can't, the big players behind Blackrocks ETF might find other ways to shake out the weak hands before taking the market higher.
The Dawn of a New Era: A Turning Point in Crypto Regulations
It appears that we've reached a turning point in crypto regulations. It's unlikely that regulations could get any worse from here, which is a positive sign for the market. We're currently facing an environment with almost no significant regulatory risks, only potential regulatory upsides. The crypto market has demonstrated incredible resilience, adapting and evolving in ways that make it less susceptible to regulatory hindrances. The SEC is under increasing pressure to clarify its stance on crypto regulations, while other countries are stepping up and providing more precise guidelines, attracting a growing number of crypto businesses. This trend fosters the expansion of exchanges outside the US and the development of more favorable regulations for the crypto space. In my opinion, we will have regulatory clarity in the US by the end of the year.
An Outlook on the Crypto Market: Positive and Negative Factors
Some positives are 1. China is pumping liquidity into its economy, and as Hong Kong has just opened its doors to crypto, some of that liquidity will flow into crypto, 2. Celsius might convert alts into BTC and ETH (directing liquidity to these two), 3. Voyager distributing cash to creditors (some will go back into crypto), 4. FTX 2.0 is in the cards, which means that 2B USD could come back to the market, along with several altcoins that could be converted into BTC & ETH (FTX & Alameda don't have much BTC or ETH).
Some potential negatives are 1. Mt.Gox, Bitfinex & US Gov distributing/selling their BTC, 2. Bankrupt companies selling their coins/tokens, 3. Gemini/DCG going bankrupt and forced to be liquidated, 4. More lawsuits and losing court battles, 5. Stock market collapse.
Uncertain Stock Market Conditions and Crypto Performance
Number 5 is something I would like to clarify here, as stocks may have topped. Nothing is certain, but we need to be aware of the situation. Yesterday we had a Triple Witching (a term used in the stock market to describe the simultaneous expiration of three different types of derivative contracts, namely stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options, all on the same trading day. This happens four times a year, on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.), and we will have a three-day weekend.
This is the perfect setting for a top, especially as SPX has hit SPX hit 4450 and my BBs with STD 3 upper band, Nasdaq swept its Q1 2022 highs, and Russell 3000 the breakdown zone, while all are extremely overbought. Yields keep going higher, as Oil, Natural Gas, Wheat, Corn, etc. show strength, which could push rates and the dollar higher, and therefore risk assets could have a dip. Finally, based on some sentiment-related data, we could be close to an extreme point in stock prices. In my opinion, this is not the time to take excessive risks but the time to take profits on stocks.
That doesn't mean crypto will collapse, as crypto has been underperforming for months and usually moves along with stocks. Therefore, if it were to simply catch up with tech stocks, 33k would be an easy target. The best way to express bullishness in the long term is to bet on BTC, ETH, GBTC, and COIN, and I would avoid any other coins for now.
Technical Analysis
GBTC had a massive collapse, its discount was near 50% (relative to BTC), and it rallied to fill a major gap. Filled the gap, had a correction, retested the breakout zone, bottomed there, and is now going up. If someone buys GBTC here, they will make 75% extra on their trade when that discount closes relative to how much they would have made by simply holding BTC.
BITO was down 25%. Partially filled an FVG on a gap down and bottomed there. It has several gaps to fill higher, but only a few lower. The gaps higher are pretty important, as some of them are double/triple gaps (gaps within gaps), making them more critical.
BTC and ETH on CME have some important gaps higher that could be acting like magnets, but both are at resistance now. BTC is at the horizontal and Fibonacci pivot resistance combo, while ETH is testing its critical breakdown zone.
Overall, Bitcoin has some double/triple tops higher or FVGs, which is liquidity ready to be tapped. However, that holds for levels lower too. The most important levels right now are 27500, 30000, 33000, 35300, and 37500 to the upside and 22600, 21000, 18500, 14000, and 12500 to the downside.
Bitcoin seems to have formed the perfect bottom after it formed two double bottoms, one at 25800 and one at 25350, both of which got broken slowly, and the final leg down hit the 25200 breakout zone. It actually fell below 25000, which was a round number, and trapped shorts, which thought the break below 25000 would be very bearish.
Finally, it also seems to be within a massive falling wedge, but it's unclear which direction it will take. There is a potential trap in either direction, so I wouldn't want to read too much into it. My view is that someone should respect all the levels I have mentioned and potentially take profits or place entries for short to medium-term trades on them.
XRP 6.62% Growth (SEC Drops Lawsuit)!XRP has gained 6.62% growth within the last 24 hours, on the back of good news that the SEC (Securities Exchange Commission) drops their lawsuit against two Ripple Labs executives. The original charge claimed that the blockchain company violated U.S. security laws by selling unregistered securities. The SEC is now taking back that claim.
From a technical stance, this should give XRP buyers the opportunity to take out the previous, pending liquidity sitting at $0.55 which is another 5.90% growth from current market price.
BTC - FAKE ETF News cause BULL-trap👎Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
There has been interesting volatility on BTC in the past 24 hours, with fake news being released on X, alleging that the SEC approved Blackrock's iShare spot ETF (they haven't).
Directly from the Cointelegraph website, 16 hours ago:
"Earlier today, during routine coverage, Cointelegraph’s social media team posted a message on X without prior editorial approval stating that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission had approved BlackRock’s iShares spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, or ETF. This was false, the result of misinformation. The news lead originated from an unconfirmed screenshot posted by an X user who claimed it was from the Bloomberg Terminal. "
Pretty much immediately after this article, the price started to retrace. It seems to me like severe insider trading / purposeful deceit. Interestingly enough, the price turned at EXACTLY 30K which seems very unnatural. It will be interesting to see whether the SEC reacts to this, or if it's just another day in crypto.
Luckily, as per all our previous posts on altcoins, I'm not trading BTC at the moment. Reason being I was expecting algo's on Bitcoin, as range trading often attracts bots. My focus is still on altcoins at the moment.
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CryptoCheck
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT KUCOIN:BTCUSDT
BITCOIN SPOT ETF RUMOURS!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has spiked up by an enormous 2,090 PIPS (7.50%) in the last hourly candle, on the rumour that a Bitcoin Spot ETF application has been approved by the SEC.
BlackRock has come out to deny it, calling it 'fake news'. Just like that market crashed back down & wiped out its 7.50% gain. In the process trapping a lot of new buyers, taking out sellers & liquidating them both in the process.
Ask yourself, who gains at times like this? The average, everyday person? No. It's the governments & institutions who release these rumours, in order to screw the everyday investor who doesn't know how to professionally operate in the markets.
🔥 Bitcoin Spot ETF Approved: BUY THE RUMOR & SELL THE NEWS 🚨The BTC spot ETF has finally been approved, but will it result in the massive bullish pump that EVERYONE has been expecting.
My answer: No.
It's public knowledge that the Bitcoin spot ETF will be approved at some point now for months. Thus, most traders have already bought a position in anticipation.
Like nearly every ETH/BTC ETF news we got this year, I'm anticipating this to be a Sell The News event.
If there's something that I've learned over the years, it would be that if everyone expects a certain outcome, the opposite will often happen.
Yes, this is long-term great news for Bitcoin. However, I highly doubt we're going to see the massive shift in trend that people have been hoping for.
Nevertheless, I'm happy to be wrong, as a new high this year would definitely be against my expectation. The market has to prove it wants to go up first before I believe it.
Be warned.