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SBUX

034. PIGGISH PLAY - Short Starbucks CorpPart I. - Opening Statements: Two things that I like about Starbucks: 1) The coffee is pretty good and the holiday special drinks are amusing 2) Much more importantly, SBUX has some of the most reliably clean bathrooms among all public places Two things that I dislike about Starbucks: 1) Their naming convention for beverage sizes is illogical and somewhat culturally ignorant. Specifically, I have a major social-justice-esque problem with "Grande" and "Venti". This would be because: - "Grande" means "great" in Italian and means "big" in Spanish. Since the Italian translation isn't a valid size, one can only make sense of it if interpreted in Spanish. - "Venti" can mean either "Winds" or "Twenty" in Italian. While the latter is for sure what they are referring to, I think both are equally inappropriate given that there is no Spanish interpretation for this size. 2) You need to provide them with a first name for the order, irrespective of whether you are the only customer in the store. Before I move on with the impetus and details of this very elegant looking short setup on SBUX daily, let us examine both of these issues more closely by replaying the last SBUX run-in I had about six weeks ago: Me (Internal Dialogue): I'm super thirsty and tired right now and I have to donate something to this place if I'm going to use their clean bathroom. F**k it, I'll go with the large Cold Brew this time. Hmm, is it Grande or Venti - I can never remember? Me (to Register Attendant ): I'll take the "Gran-day" Cold Brew, please. "Barista": "Sure thing, that will be 6.49. Can I get your name please?" "Me (Internal): 6.49 is egregious for a cup of coffee. Where the hell do they get off charging that much? Hold up, 6.49 = Grande, which... = medium!? These freaking names are so stupid and don't make any sense. If this place didn't have clean bathrooms, I swear to god this would be my last time in this place. "Me (To "Barista"): "Great, thanks. Here's six.. and forty eight, forty-nine cents on the dot." "Barista": "Awesome, now we'll just need your name for this order." "Me (Internal): Why on this pandemic-forsaken planet do you need my name? Are you the IRS? Are you planning on sending me flowers? THERE'S NOBODY ELSE HERE, SO WHY DO YOU NEED MY NAME??. Idiot. "Me (To "Barista"): "Uh, I guess. It's Perma." "Me (Internal): (Sipping grande-medium coffee drink/spilling a bit and getting angry at Starbucks again) "This place sucks. I know it used to be good, but it definitely sucks now. Where are all the usual crowds that swarm here, pretending to study and what- not? Well, this is the kind of brick-and-mortar business model that such a pandemic would theoretically crush to death. But, I mean, it's Starbucks and these stores are literally everywhere. Hmm, well real estate prices are nearly as inflated as stock prices these days, so perhaps SBUX is about to get its second HBS Case Study with a Bankruptcy theme this time around... Yeah, if I see these shops start closing down, I'll be shorting this thing for making me choose the wrong-sized drink, again. PART II. - Actual Commentary on the Pig-Play & Fundamental Reasoning for SBUX Short: If you skipped to here, then I don't entirely blame you. However, you might want to read the last paragraph of Part I (me internal dialogue) because this did in fact happen in real life and is the impetus for taking a sizeable short position against the company. See, I did notice a store closing the other day and then started following the stock a bit. It is bearish indeed. The killer blow, IMO, is that they really missed the bottom line on their ER yesterday, which can be directly linked to their strategic cost of brick-and-mortar cannibalization of properties in major cities that have seen rents skyrocket. While SBUX maintained pretty strong revenue, this was mostly due to newer channels in China that have started realizing gain. Unfortunately, the recipe as it currently stands domestically, is one of disaster because of the sheer number of properties that Starbucks owns. I wholehartedly believe that this ER is the first of many that concludes with 10-dollar per share stock price and forced liquidation in two years or so. PART III. - Brief Technical Discussion & PIG SPECS: Directing attention away from the fundamental picture, what we have in front of us is a truly harmonic price chart. Immediately upon opening up the chart, I noticed how symmetrical the price action distributed before the culmination top. The technique that I used here is an application of Gann's timing angles (1x1, 2x1, etc.) that can be found in any "Gann-fan" tool. These angles are naturally geometric and also fall within the generic harmonic scale of 1/8th. Specifically, the ones used above are the common 30 degrees, 45 degrees, 37.5 degrees and 27.5 degrees coming down from the left and intersecting the horizontal axis below. When these angle lines bounce off of the horizontal axis, they will ultimately intersect their original horizontal starting price levels (on the left, drawn across), as well as intersect with the other key angle lines' original starting price levels. What is not commonly known is that these intersections can make for perfect trades, in perpetuity. I call the exact hit points "landmines" and they are depicted as green and red dots herein. The green dots are past "support" landmines and you can see that price bounces upward as it approaches the landmine's location in time. Conversely, the red landmines act as resistance as price approaches their vector time. Now, the gray dots are FUTURE LANDMINES that could either be GREEN OR RED, depending on whether the price action is above or below the exact hit in price-time. Also, when you have future landmines set up like this, you can without much effort, figure out a projected price path knowing that price will approach these points in the near-future. So, now that the landmines are in place, and the earnings report confirmed my theory on the declining fundamental picture, I think its time to present you with the option contracts that I've already started accumulating yesterday: PIG SPECS: (LONG) PUT POSITION 1: SBUX PUT, STRIKE= 96, Expiration= 2/11, Allocation of Cap = 75% (LONG) PUT POSITION 2: SBUX PUT, STRIKE = 97, Expiration= 2/4, Allocation of Cap =25% Reasoning: While the two strikes and expirations are very similar in price and theta, this isn't a typical calendar play. I see this short as a very calculated, tight rip down over the next few sessions. The moves downward are likely to be symmetrical and the daily movements, methodical. I'm basing this off of the symmetry shown in the many years of ascending price action on the left side of the chart. If this assumption holds, then there is little point in getting fancy with OTM strikes and various exp. dates. No need to overthink this one - as it could be just as viable if one were to short the equity directly. I might do this as well tomorrow. FIN. -Venti-Bag-PigPlayer NASDAQ:SBUX SP:SPX DJ:DJI CURRENCYCOM:US500 CURRENCYCOM:US30
NASDAQ:SBUXShort
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
19
Have You Ever Dropped A Starbucks Coffee?Have You Ever Dropped a Starbucks Coffee? After you dropped your coffee, did the coffee cup pick itself back up? LOL! Well, I've identified a falling wedge pattern on SBUX daily and four hour charts. Perhaps it will pick itself up from the "drop". *This is not financial advice. If you like this trade idea, please share your favorite Starbucks drink in the comment section below. Try the strawberry lemonade refresher from Starbucks! Refreshers are good, MrALtrades00
NASDAQ:SBUXLong
by MrALtrades00
StarBucks (NASDAQ: $SBUX) Hiring External Candidate For CEO ☕Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty coffee worldwide. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee and tea beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, single serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items. The company also licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Evolution Fresh, Ethos, Starbucks Reserve, and Princi brands. As of October 3, 2021, it operated 16,826 company-operated and licensed stores in North America; and 17,007 company-operated and licensed stores internationally. The company was founded in 1971 and is based in Seattle, Washington.
NASDAQ:SBUXLong
by Bullishcharts
$SBUX 3-2 on the dayI like SBUX because it's cheap lol. The key here is to get several contracts. It's especially juicy on a Friday if it moves as contracts are even cheaper. 3-2 setup on the day. Can be a continuation or reversal. Levels marked both ways but I'm mostly bullish. TFC is green however the 2d reversal on the week could change that. I drew one downtrend bf to see if it breaks. I like this to be played both ways and all week. If we break the weekly/monthly, it can be a swing to the next target.
NASDAQ:SBUX
by my_stockcorner
2
June swoon about to hit Starbucks stock?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on June 1, 2022 with a closing price of 76.28. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 75.47 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.684% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 5.604% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 13.653% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% decline must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 6 trading bars; half occur within 14 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 25 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:SBUXShort
by StockSignaler
SBUX Forecast After Meeting Earnings ExpectationsAfter touching our price target here: Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is in line with earnings expectations: Revenue: $7.6 billion vs $7.62 billion expected Adj. EPS: $0.59 vs $0.60 expected U.S. same-store sales: 12.00% vs 8.90% expected International same-store sales: -8.00% vs 1.87% expected The China threat to SBUX is not over yet in my opinion, the U.S. and China stores represent 61% of the company’s global portfolio (2/3 stores in the U.S and 1/3 in China), and we could expect a retracement to the Covid lockdown area if we won`t see growth in the second half of the year. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:SBUX
by TopgOptions
Starbucks - Time for Defensive Stocks?Is it time to switch to defensive stocks like Starbucks when recession is looming and there is a sell off on the market? Fundamental analysis - all the financial indicators are pretty consistent and positive, apart from one that may deter the investors - rise of liabilities against the assets and equities which is exceeding the norms. Technical analysis - looking at the monthly timeframe it is clearly visible the development of fourth running correction which can be followed by the final fifth wave with a potential target of £120 to $150. Risks - it is critical to wait for earnings report in May which will confirm the positive sentiment and hence the proposed scenario, or an alternative analysis would need to be made. Therefore, Starbucks is still quite stable in its earnings and dividends, and the next quarterly report will be crucial for another short to mid term bull run. Are you looking to buy these shares or have you got another view on the possible development? Please share your thoughts in the comments and like this idea if you would like to see more stocks analysed using Elliott Waves. Thanks NB - comparing the type of Running Correction that has been experienced in Starbucks it may be possible to see similar one in McDonalds which is only starting to develop
NASDAQ:SBUXLong
by vitalalyt
2
$SBUX Key Levels, Analysis, & Targets$SBUX Key Levels, Analysis, & Targets So I do think that here I’m going to start with target 2 - but target 1 might catch it. I’m still aiming for 2. Swing setup 1 at 79.11 1 at 71.06 2 at 60.85 4 at 50.02 (Then multiply by your multiplier (x5, x10, x100, x1000, etc to find your position size) --- I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed. GL and happy trading. IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
NASDAQ:SBUXShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
2
Starbucks (NASDAQ: $SBUX) Is A Hot Bounce Opportunity! ☕Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty coffee worldwide. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee and tea beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, single serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items. The company also licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Evolution Fresh, Ethos, Starbucks Reserve, and Princi brands. As of October 3, 2021, it operated 16,826 company-operated and licensed stores in North America; and 17,007 company-operated and licensed stores internationally. The company was founded in 1971 and is based in Seattle, Washington.
NASDAQ:SBUXLong
by Bullishcharts
1
Starbucks (NASDAQ: $SBUX) Looks Like Great Value Play! ☕Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty coffee worldwide. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee and tea beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, single serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items. The company also licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Evolution Fresh, Ethos, Starbucks Reserve, and Princi brands. As of October 3, 2021, it operated 16,826 company-operated and licensed stores in North America; and 17,007 company-operated and licensed stores internationally. The company was founded in 1971 and is based in Seattle, Washington.
NASDAQ:SBUXLong
by RedHotStocks
Starbucks! More bucks. SBUXYup. Upgoing zigzag with increasing momentum. Looking for End of C. We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe!
NASDAQ:SBUXLong
by Rykin_Capital