RTY pivotal point! RTY1!
RTY futures are at a pivotal point in price, looking at breakout territory. Since most of the indexes have made their new ATH. I am expecting the same in RTY, the caveat to this is that the stocks within the index need to recover, and since these stocks are small caps, it may be a little while before they recover due to economic impacts suffered by COVID. But this setup looks great on technicals, we can either chase long on the breakout or flip short if trend is broken.
RTY1!
RVX (RTY's VIX) at a Decision Point 8/23/2020This is the RVX at the daily view.
The RVX has finally reached a decision point between the long-term wedge resistance and the supports below. Currently, the RTY is in a giant bull flag since August 3rd and doing a "correction over time."
A correction over time is actually a bearish in the very short-term, but bullish in the medium-term. Currently, the RTY is coiling up for another move up. The RVX indicates that more sideways to down movement is ahead for the RTY until the bull flag finally plays out. The RTY's bull flag is canceled out around 1460.
Currently, the bears flocked to both the NQ and the RTY. The market tends to hunt for shorts first and the the longs. Judging by how many bears have saturated the RTY, I'm expecting a small spike down first and then a rather big short covering rally.
Greed tends to punish both sides.
RTY's Bull Flag Pt 2 8/18/2020RTY at the daily view.
The Russell is still bull flagging. It's quite obvious by now. The downward movement is sometimes called "correction by time."
A correction by time is not actually bearish. It means the Russell is consolidating for another move up. Unless the bears take the RTY down to the bottom of that flag pole, it's still bullish. The bears had a chance all this time to take it down. They didn't... yet.
Liquidity levels are high enough to go scuba diving in. The chances of bears taking this below the flag pole? You might as well take a shot at the lottery.
The most likely course of action is that a further pullback will just gather more buyers below - like me. If not, then the bull flag may bring the Russell even higher.
Elliott Wave View: Support Area for Russell 2000 (RTY)Elliott Wave View of Russell 2000 (RTY) suggests the rally from July 31,2020 low has ended at 1605.70 high as wave 3. Up from July 30 low, wave ((i)) ended at 1482.60 high and wave ((ii)) dips ended at 1467.80 low. Index then extended higher in wave ((iii)) towards 1552.60 high. The internal subdivision of wave ((iii)) unfolded as 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave Structure. Wave (i) of ((iii)) ended at 1510.60 high and wave (ii) pullback ended at 1493.70 low. Rally higher in wave (iii) then ended at 1551.60 high, followed by wave (iv) pullback, which ended at 1543.40 low. Wave (v) then extended higher and ended at 1552.60 high.
Afterwards, the Index did a pullback in wave ((iv)), which ended at 1534.20 low. Finally, wave ((v)) higher ended at 1605.70 high. This final move completed wave 3 in higher degree and ended cycle from July 31 low. Index is currently correcting that cycle within wave 4. The correction is unfolding as a double three correction, where wave ((w)) has ended at 1560.90 low. The bounce in wave ((x)) ended at 1589.60 high. Wave ((y)) remains in progress right now. As long as 1451.10 low stays intact, expect the dips in 3,7 or 11 swings to find support for more upside. The 100-161.8% extension of wave ((w))-((x)) where ((y)) can end is at 1516.76-1544.71 area and is shown with a blue box. That area if reached later can produce 3 waves bounce at least.
Russel's Bull Flag 8/15/2020RTY at the daily. The title speaks for itself.
The Russel is bull flagging at this point. Although, another pullback is projected around August 17-19. In the bigger picture, that pullback is merely a consolidation for the RTY. Liquidity is still very high.
What would be the unexpected move? A pullback to lure the bears. A bounce and break a new high to lure the bulls. Then finally a correction.
Institutions' distribution of the NQ should be ending near the end of the summer... which is soon. The Russel made some awesome gains of over 200 points in the last month. However, the phase of uncertainty among all major indices should begin soon.
RTY1 1D BEAR FLAGBear Flags are Ranges that are repeatable trading chart patterns.
Bear Flags are a chart patterns that will have a directional bias depending on the previous incoming trend.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows
a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size.
b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume
look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+)
2 - Enter two trades.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade
*9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
Russell's Time to Shine Part 2 8/8/2020Whelp, here we are. It looks like I was right. Since July 13th, this was RTY's time to shine.
While the FOMOers and Robinhooders were chasing the tech hype in NQ, institutions resumed their distribution within the NQ. Institutions were selling tech shares and taking advantage of the tech hype. The settled cash was then used to invest in non-tech stocks that are vital to the economy such as transportation, financials, and utilities. I'm not going to judge them. I would've done the same thing. You can't build an economy if you have no bank account, no shipping, and no electricity or waste management.
What sectors make up a large part of the RTY? Transportation, financials, utilities, industrial, and energy - the non-tech stocks.
While amateur traders were chasing the tech hype, the NQ only gained nearly 8% since July 13th. The RTY gained nearly 14% since July 13th.
This is why traders should never limit themselves to just one index or one sector. They just missed better opportunities out there.
RTY's Time to Shine 7/24/2020The RTY at the 4 hour view. Tech shares are finally getting corrected by institutions. Thank God. The NQ was seriously overextended and bloated.
While tech and biotech will be going ultimately sideways for the rest of the summer, this is a great moment for non-tech sectors to grow from the Distribution Cycle.
RTY is filled with non-tech sectors. Investors are flocking for dividend stocks which the RTY is loaded with them. RTY will soon be my favorite index to long and the NQ will be my index to short from at this rate.
The question is: will the RTY fill that giant gap below or make another run for 1500+?
RTY at a Crossroads 7/21/2020This is RTY at the 4 hour view.
RTY is at a crossroads. It has a gap below that calling and pulling it down to fill it. At the same time, institutions are selling tech stocks and allocating that money to financials, transportation, and energy.
My plan is to wait for RTY to fill the gap or pullback first. The next upside target for RTY is 1500+. I don't want to end up chasing the RTY.
RTY Possible Bull Flag 7/20/2020I'm waiting for RTY to fill that gap. With big tech earnings this week and next week, I figured that this may be an excuse for transportation and financials to pull back.
It seems that RTY is bull flagging instead at the 4 hour. I asked the question: will the RTY fill the gap first then run for 1500+? Or will RTY run for 1500+ first then fill the gap later?
It's looking to be the latter so far. I hope I'm wrong on this. I would love to ride the bounce up.
RTY Channel 7/18/2020This is the RTY at the 4 hour.
Which will the RTY do first? Fill the gap below or breakout to reach 1500?
The NQ has entered into a distribution phase. Tech stocks are going down and the money is heading to the non-tech stocks like financials and transportation. That's the RTY's bread of butter.
RTY may be getting reach for another surge. The question is: will it fill the gap first or go for 1500?
Personally, I would be happy to buy RTY at the 1420's.
RTY Breakout 7/15/2020Investors and traders are leaving tech to go for better value stocks: financials and transportation.
RTY rallied big time due to this shift in breadth. I am expecting a small pullback for RTY. However, from the looks of it, financials and transportation have entered into an uptrend channel.
If you're going to short, short very, very carefully. It's probably safer to long from major supports. Stock breadth is strengthening. Liquidity is strengthening. That is all pretty bullish. RTY is known for bouncing unexpectedly.
RTY in a BoxThis is RTY at the 4 hour view. I just said screw it with the channels for now until RTY makes up its mind.
For now, RTY is stuck in a volatility box. The dotted lines are tier I support/resistance. The dashed lines are tier II support/resistance.
You can swing trade while the price goes back and forth. At URTY/SRTY, that's still a 3-7% profit per day.
The fate of RTY really rests on the decision that XLF/FAS and XTN/IYT make. Financials and transportation make a bull market. Why? Because every business needs a bank account and ways to ship/receive products. Even tech needs its semiconductors and a bank for venture capital.
RTY Channel 7/13/2020RTY broke below its upward channel again. It looks like the downward channel is taking over.
It seems the price action is coordinating with the downward channel's buy and sell zones. Banks' earnings are tomorrow. JP Morgan and Wells Fargo will set the tone for earnings season.
If RTY is indeed in the downward channel, then look to short the bounces. If RTY closes a day or two below 1354, then it's going to get ugly. That's why the buy zone is so large compared the sell zone.
The XLF/FAS and XTN/IYT will determine the fate of the RTY. If both cannot sustain a rally, the RTY will become my favorite short target.