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RTY One Hour Long IdeaThe RTY one hour time frame is still in a down trend. The market is making lower lows and lower highs. According to the daily time frame. The market is expected to push bullish towards 2314.5 about +1,412 ticks above the market. It will be a good idea to wait for the one hour time frame to break the short term down trend line and enter into the buy zone. Before looking for long ideas. Entry: Counter trend line break bullish in the buy zone. STOP: In the sell zone. LIMIT: 2314.5 Once or if the market enters into the buy zone. As long as the market stays in the buy zone. It will be a good idea to turn to the five minute time frame and to look for tunnel trader long / Destination trader long opportunities.
CME_MINI:RTY1!Long
by JoshuaMartinez
8
RTY One Hour Long +1,412 TicksThe RTY one hour time frame is in a down trend. The market is making lower lows and lower highs. The larger time frame shows the market should push bullish towards the monthly up future resistance price point 2314.5. It will be a good idea to wait for the one hour time frame to break the down trend line and enter into the buy zone before looking for buying ideas. Entry: Counter trend line break bullish in the buy zone. STOP: In the sell zone LIMIT: 2314.5 Once or if the market enters into the buy zone. It will be a good idea to turn to the five minute time frame and to look for tunnel trader long / destination trader long ideas towards 2314.5
CME_MINI:RTY1!Long
by JoshuaMartinez
4
RTY - Millennium Tower IndexThe Russell 2000 continues to expend energy in a large Range which remains in a weakened condition. 2282.50 was rejected. There is little to support this as the Parking Lot is being vacated. Small to Mid Caps are not faring well in the present Environment with little reason to Position for 2022. Slowly Sinking into a LArger Sell is ahead after the next Retracement. ___________________________________________________________ RTY / M2K will Ourperformi to the Downside.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by HK_L61
3
Best places to go long or short the RussellThe Russell is even cleaner than the Nasdaq. Two major buy / sell areas on the chart. So far the Russell has been playing the game of chop. Sweep the lows, sweep the highs and move in the other direction. The same way we had a failed breakout, we could get a failed break down. Best place to sell 2310-2360. Resistance/Gap combo and the real direction for now is down, so it is with the main trend. 2200 & 2080 are decent for short term trades. As we go down they are good for a bounce. If they get broken they are good to put shorts if the market bounces from lower. Best place to buy long term is 1980-2030. Extreme support combo with 1. Untested breakout / gap, 2. Key Bollinger bands, 3. 400 DMA
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by BitcoinMacro
RTY - ahh... faked you out.... not higher.... lower comingRTY - "everyone" (including me) was faked out by the false breakout. Now it's back into the long term wedge (also appears to really have been a large ending diagonal or Wyckoff Distribution pattern). With the breakdown of Crypto over the weekend, RTY is heading to back test some prior levels. This will be healthy in the long run, but painful for those heavily long. Based on the 2 Anchored VWAPs placed on this chart, I see a MINIMUM pullback to the 1950 area on RTY. Further basic Elliott Wave analysis may suggest some slightly lower zones as possible. Regardless, the AVWAP zone shown here will be good for AT LEAST a hefty bounce.
CME_MINI:RTY1!Short
by RBS2024
A good place to start scaling for a bounceI think this is a good place to start scaling into the RTY longer-term or short-term potential bounce. In 6 months we will be at a very different place. With the proper position sizing you could start scaling in 5-10% of your planned investment in Russell if you don't have any position already. Risk reward potential is greater that it one day will retest any of the levels above. There are some nice trades that can be made with this.
CAPITALCOM:RTYLong
by DevilsIslandBoy
NQ - Daily: Price is now in the "Box"Wire to Wire Melt-ups is the very definition of an Aggressive Extension. The price moved accordingly within NQ Extension to perfectly hit its first area of Resistance the Heavy Depth of Market Distribution for the next Wave down within the downturn off the High @ 15,708.50. We are now roughly 650 Ticks from the September Highs. or conversely as little more than halfway off the Lows @ 143567.25. The same 2 Draw are shown in the FIB Ladders 1. Ledge @ 15399 to 14367 2. ATH @ 15708 to 14367 The symmetry illustrates how time functions as Intersects are important, they are Pivots for Price in Time when defined correctly, it requires patience to hunt them down if you are relatively inexperienced. e Eventually, you will find them with ease. Within the Symmetry, we see the "Box" - although it will appear tilted, it is our larger retracement Range IF and Only IF this level of resistance is broken and continues to Hold. We have Gaps above and Gaps below, by design... it creates uncertainty, again, by design. We also have, more importantly - the Retracement we were looking for Price attempting to Fill the Gap above. We do not know if this will be a Gap & GO or a Gap & Trap. We see on the smaller Timeframes October 21 as an important Time... On the larger Daily Timeframe - we see November as important. Our Box has a boundary for Time and within it there are a number of dates now which began popping up last week to assert themselves on Shorter Durations. The VIX Crush is underway as the VVIX is being pushed back into our Corner, albeit slowly... ever so slowly. The VXN has 18.60 as the next lower Objective. Price is either going to Over-Throw or consolidate. Typically extensions this Aggressive either continue of Fail in rather Epic proportions. Friday's are always fun, they tend to relieve the most capital from both sides during Expiry... Put holders have been smoked, the large number of Call buyers wants their Payday.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
4
NQ - Daily Setup / D1 = 15708-14367 & D2 = 15399 - 14367Price provided further Information the last few days. We have been patiently waiting for developments in the Market Structures to unfold . We anticipated a Countrend after hitting the WEEKLY LTL @ 14367 illustrated in a prior Chart Observation. Everything has traded out as we anticipated and indicated. SO far, SO good - this is always subject to change. We never tell Price what to do, but simply obey its increasingly Volatile gyrations. _____________________________________________________ Prior to the beginning - I would point out the NQ has given back 100+ Ticks in the Final hour in prior Sessions. Sellers remain on the Hourly Timeframe End of Day - Volumes Support the SELL as being more than a simple Profit-taking event, but a larger and continuing Distribution. As well, the ES gave up 50% from its highs yesterday, falling short of the Gap Fill. The YM fell back 200+ Ticks. Sellers remain as the Hourly is attempting to turn Up to imbue the Bulls that we are out of the Loggins Danger Zone. We are not quite yet for a number of reasons and conditions we will discuss this in detail. This will be NASDAQ-centric, as it has the most to gain and to lose. The YM / RTY are trading on their own, the ES is more closely aligned to the NQ and the VIX. These Price actions and divergences are important between Indexes as the rotation trades continue. Friday Macro Data: 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Sep) 08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours (Sep) 08:30 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Sep) 08:30 USD Government Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Manufacturing Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Participation Rate (Sep) 08:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Sep) 08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Sep) 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 10:00 USD Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Aug) 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 15:30 GBP CFTC GBP speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Aluminium speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Copper speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Corn speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Gold speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Natural Gas speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Silver speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Soybeans speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Wheat speculative net positions _____________________________________________________ Technically, the attempt to Fill the Gap is underway. It failed yesterday, it is, however - Friday. Which suggests the potential for more extreme Price action is on deck. We have conflicting Information on varying Timeframes: The hourly as mentioned above is attempting to move Higher, the Daily/Weekly remain in a Net Negative Position. We see 3 Potential Outcomes, which require Patience... and suggest patience pays quite often here. Simply because it does protect Traders from Biases formed during large declines in Price for which the NQ saw 5%+ come off the Top of the Range while BTD Retailers were howling for 18,000. Gap and Don't Look Back Implication: The lows at 14367 were it, Price will now move higher back to all-time highs once again. It worked for 18 Months and it will continue. The correction was merely a release of optimism in excess. Unfortunately, No. Yesterday is today is tomorrow works when Sentiment is increasing. This Selloff came on declining Investor Sentiment, a very real loss of Confidence, and a late-stage rally on the extremely poor breadth and declining Volumes. AMZN was the first to give up the Ghost and did it. According to the Bulls - it's back to all-time highs. This requires a large amount of work for Price and ignores a great many Fundamental Macro Factors BUlls have dismissed for a lengthy period of time. Gap to Fill to Range into Break It is too early to know as this would develop over time, can Price chop in a large range for weeks to a month into November? It would require a number of conditions - the 21/34/50EMAs would need to begin to turn up on Larger TF's to flatten out ever so slightly. Oscillators would need to remove the extremely Negative conditions don't the WEEKLY TF. The 50EMAs on the DAILY TF would need to be broken and hold Price between 21/34/50EMAs which are compressing and relatively tight. Price would need to range into a Break Up or Down. We saw the NQ Retrace over the .500 and onto the -.382 yesterday on the draw from 15399 to 14367. It did not however complete the .500 if the larger Full Range Draw from 15708 to 14367. Price will decide as Price provides further evidence as to the complexity of this Retracement. Gap and Trap to Fail IN a downtrend, the 21/34/50 tend to provide Resistance. The Levels act as a ceiling typically, although we have seen a great many over-throws of Resistance only to Trap Buyers @ Highs as Price reverses adding further Energy for downside Momentum as the "Oh Sh_t" point of recognition becomes a momentary lapse of reason for the first few Dunks... they buy the Dip until it stops working, which adds further Energy as they have not only compounded their Capital Issues, but engendered the rest of the BTD Herd with bravado as they chase their averages lower... until the losses compound to such a degree, they become the Egg People and SELL at the Lows. We have seen this time and again. Inexperienced Investors wander and make all sorts of "pronouncements" Nasdaq 18K", "Dow 37K", "ES 5000" - Eggo's in the toaster... is what they quickly become. Undeterred, they begin calling bottoms. And upon any retracement of any size... the BUll is Back Baby~! This has always been Degenerate Gambling with little to no patience of any kind, simply a self-fulfilling YOLO prophecy which paid the Bills for awhile. In 2002, all that will change as a 50% correction will begin after we complete 5/5. The DG's will finally be pummeled to the point of prior generational lessons learned. It is simply our nature, short memories and high expectations. "I'm a winner~!" In the Age of everyone gets a trophy, the gene pool becomes murky in the Deeper end of the kiddie pool, which seems to be endless in length. The needs for Chlorine are immense as the waters are contaminated with fecal matter. Enough about PYS, onto the what Price is up to. We are waiting to see if Price pivots to the Larger Daily Draw from 15708 to 14367. Today is Pivotal as next week is all about Inflation by the Numbers. More time will be required, perhaps into Tuesday... to determine how the underlying Structure is shaping up. _____________________________________________________ So here's that word again - Patience Price will tell us everything we need to know. Price provided further Information the last few days. We have been patiently waiting for developments in the Market Structures to unfold . We anticipated a Countrend after hitting the WEEKLY LTL @ 14367 illustrated in a prior Chart Observation. Everything has traded out as we anticipated and indicated. SO far, SO good - this is always subject to change. We never tell Price what to do, but simply obey its increasingly Volatile gyrations. _____________________________________________________ Prior to the beginning - I would point out the NQ has given back 100+ Ticks in the Final hour in prior Sessions. Sellers remain on the Hourly Timeframe End of Day - Volumes Support the SELL as being more than a simple Profit-taking event, but a larger and continuing Distribution. As well, the ES gave up 50% from its highs yesterday, falling short of the Gap Fill. The YM fell back 200+ Ticks. Sellers remain as the Hourly is attempting to turn Up to imbue the Bulls that we are out of the Loggins Danger Zone. We are not quite yet for a number of reasons and conditions we will discuss this in detail. This will be NASDAQ-centric, as it has the most to gain and to lose. The YM / RTY are trading on their own, the ES is more closely aligned to the NQ and the VIX. These Price actions and divergences are important between Indexes as the rotation trades continue. Friday Macro Data: 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Sep) 08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours (Sep) 08:30 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Sep) 08:30 USD Government Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Manufacturing Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Participation Rate (Sep) 08:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Sep) 08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Sep) 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 10:00 USD Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Aug) 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 15:30 GBP CFTC GBP speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Aluminium speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Copper speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Corn speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Gold speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Natural Gas speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Silver speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Soybeans speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Wheat speculative net positions _____________________________________________________ Technically, the attempt to Fill the Gap is underway. It failed yesterday, it is, however - Friday. Which suggests the potential for more extreme Price action is on deck. We have conflicting Information on varying Timeframes: The hourly as mentioned above is attempting to move Higher, the Daily/Weekly remain in a Net Negative Position. We see 3 Potential Outcomes, which require Patience... and suggest patience pays quite often here. Simply because it does protect Traders from Biases formed during large declines in Price for which the NQ saw 5%+ come off the Top of the Range while BTD Retailers were howling for 18,000. Gap and Don't Look Back Implication: The lows at 14367 were it, Price will now move higher back to all-time highs once again. It worked for 18 Months and it will continue. The correction was merely a release of optimism in excess. Unfortunately, No. Yesterday is today is tomorrow works when Sentiment is increasing. This Selloff came on declining Investor Sentiment, a very real loss of Confidence, and a late-stage rally on the extremely poor breadth and declining Volumes. AMZN was the first to give up the Ghost and did it. According to the Bulls - it's back to all-time highs. This requires a large amount of work for Price and ignores a great many Fundamental Macro Factors BUlls have dismissed for a lengthy period of time. Gap to Fill to Range into Break It is too early to know as this would develop over time, can Price chop in a large range for weeks to a month into November? It would require a number of conditions - the 21/34/50EMAs would need to begin to turn up on Larger TF's to flatten out ever so slightly. Oscillators would need to remove the extremely Negative conditions don't the WEEKLY TF. The 50EMAs on the DAILY TF would need to be broken and hold Price between 21/34/50EMAs which are compressing and relatively tight. Price would need to range into a Break Up or Down. We saw the NQ Retrace over the .500 and onto the -.382 yesterday on the draw from 15399 to 14367. It did not however complete the .500 if the larger Full Range Draw from 15708 to 14367. Price will decide as Price provides further evidence as to the complexity of this Retracement. Gap and Trap to Fail IN a downtrend, the 21/34/50 tend to provide Resistance. The Levels act as a ceiling typically, although we have seen a great many over-throws of Resistance only to Trap Buyers @ Highs as Price reverses adding further Energy for downside Momentum as the "Oh Sh_t" point of recognition becomes a momentary lapse of reason for the first few Dunks... they buy the Dip until it stops working, which adds further Energy as they have not only compounded their Capital Issues, but engendered the rest of the BTD Herd with bravado as they chase their averages lower... until the losses compound to such a degree, they become the Egg People and SELL at the Lows. We have seen this time and again. Inexperienced Investors wander and make all sorts of "pronouncements" Nasdaq 18K", "Dow 37K", "ES 5000" - Eggo's in the toaster... is what they quickly become. Undeterred, they begin calling bottoms. And upon any retracement of any size... the BUll is Back Baby~! This has always been Degenerate Gambling with little to no patience of any kind, simply a self-fulfilling YOLO prophecy which paid the Bills for awhile. In 2002, all that will change as a 50% correction will begin after we complete 5/5. The DG's will finally be pummeled to the point of prior generational lessons learned. It is simply our nature, short memories and high expectations. "I'm a winner~!" In the Age of everyone gets a trophy, the gene pool becomes murky in the Deeper end of the kiddie pool, which seems to be endless in length. The needs for Chlorine are immense as the waters are contaminated with fecal matter. Enough about PYS, onto the what Price is up to. We are waiting to see if Price pivots to the Larger Daily Draw from 15708 to 14367. Today is Pivotal as next week is all about Inflation by the Numbers. More time will be required, perhaps into Tuesday... to determine how the underlying Structure is shaping up. _____________________________________________________ So here's that word again - Patience Price will inform us of what we need to know. Patience. _____________________________________________________ My belief is we see Price head to the 200SMAs and break them after another Counter Trend off the 200SMAs, towards the 400SMAs. This would land the ES at 3850 to 3912 to 3982... The NQ the mid to lower 12Ks. The YM, 28.2 to 30 to 31K. We caught the easy $ on our projected decline... Hanging on to it here and giving it time to resolve... is wise IMHO. There is an extraordinary amount of Fundamental Influences ahead. They have yet to be told, we have covered them repeatedly. Go Back and read prior commentaries if you recently arrived, thank you. The VIX and VXN - the levels are in prior commentary... This will be today's only update as more information needs to be observed for Price. I'll leave you with, what else... Patience. Thank you and have a Blessed Weekend. - HK
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
18
VXN - NQ Volatility / 30 Day VX Expectations - ES YM RTYWe see how important the Ledge remains. We traded Support first thing this morning, this is where and when we Closed our NQ SELLs. The balance of the Day was SOH. The intent is clear, the Hourly was over-sold, the Weekly remains deadly. These are enormous ranges and again, IF there is not a high probability setup with a clearly defined trade plan. 9/10 its a loser. NQ did exactly as indicated within the Range. The ES, although the Range expanded to 4140 (200SMA) to 4388, it did dip in @ the Upper Trend Line by a few Ticks. The VIX gave up the Ghost, as indicated there is a serious effort to keep it under control AND we have 10 trading days to Roll/Settlement. This is the sweet spot for Counter Trends to develop. YM / RTY - exact same trades... RTY is always used to park $ as it is easy to manipulate due to its weightings. We suggested this CT would evolve and patience was required as it can trade up to the Ledge, a Gap Fill, remains possible, but not probable. Were the Indices to Fill their overhead Gaps, it would imply a longer correction duration... this is why patience is so very important. It is best to permit the Trade to come to you as opposed to chasing it. This generally ends badly for most traders. There is far more Downside to come as the 200SMAs are wide open now. Observe where the 21/34/50EMAs are, know these levels, they are extreme in importance and the Algo's always using them for Fills. We have 2 competing BOTs, one - short term duration - and the other attempting larger fills on Daily Time Frames, when they are not competing, as we have observed, the ST ALGO runs the Range until the DT ALGO gets its Fill.
CBOE:VXN
by HK_L61
2
NQ - ES YM RTY ZN TLT / Final Commentary - 10/7/2021 Macro Observations As the Global Economy continues to weaken, DEBT is beginning to weigh heavily on the same. Inflations have many Vectors - Monetary, Fiscal, and Confidence. Throughout the history of the United States, the "Debt Ceiling" has always been a Glass Roof. At present, decades of abuse since the 1980s have come home to roost. The result of multiple stimulus measures aimed at combating the pandemic's economic impact... Congress will run a budgetary shortfall this year equivalent to 13.4% of GDP or approximately $3.1 Trillion. It is axiomatic, Fiscal and Monetary Policies have failed. The crisis will continue to worsen over the coming years, 2022 it will reach its zenith and fail in the most unimaginable ways. Confidence is nearing all-time lows. A Panic is in the air within the "Investing Complex" - it has just begun for Retail Investors. Buy the Dip, the FED has a Put under the Equities Markets is slowly, ever so slowly giving way to the recognition, All is not at all well. The "Everything Must Go Sale" is gaining momentum. And by "everything" - we, indeed, mean everything for reasons which have been discussed repeatedly here within this sliver of TV. The Boat will tip, list, and capsize into 2022, for now, a healthy correction is ahead as indicated. Higher rates are axiomatic, the Federal Reserve will begin to move further into the Shadows with its Operations. Dark Pools will continue to position into the Sell. It won't be The End, it will, however, "feel" like it. There will be one last high to put bring an end to the Longest Bull Market in History. That will be THE END. For now, Buckle up, the Sportiness is ON. ______________________________________________________________________________________ NQ ES YM RTY ZN TLT The Nasdaq chart above illustrates the larger Daily Price Objective. How it gets there will be quick and dirty, a rather nasty affair as reality sets in, takes hold and dumps the sordid mess on its collective head. Whether or not there is a consolidation zone prior to the large DUMP, will depend upon Distribution patterns and the Budget news cycle as well as the middle of the UST Curve, namely the 10 Year Note. It is not a no-mans land, but the very inflection point on the Yield Curve. It is overdue, for reasons we have covered repeatedly. Over and over and over to the point, they no longer bare repeating. Simply review the past several months of commentary to EDU yourself. We have grown wary of rehashing our Thesis. It has been proven correct and is now in Trade. It takes time to form a top, it is a process until it becomes an event. The Technical Conditions have been growing increasingly weak for several months. 3x and 4x Divergences have been building on Larger timeframes and are now beginning to assert themselves. It will remain choppy to Down and as October unfolds, the larger Sell will arrive. The ES & YM will follow the NQ, the YM will remain the Laggard as will RTY until rotational failure will occur. It is best to observe the Weekly and Monthly TF's there for levels. We believe the 200SMAs, as well, the 400SMAs come into play in October, no later than November. One fairly significant cleansing of Speculative Juices among the Retail Investing Herd. ZN & TLT, again, for reasons we have covered repeatedly are in a confirmed SELL. We believe the 10 Year Note Yield will see new highs, the ROCs we noted are gaining immense traction. An explosive move higher is unfolding. 139s will print on TLT, ZN could dive well into the 120s. Debt Obligations will demand higher rates at a time when the DEBT edifice itself is going to be difficult to string together. Pushing on a string comes to mind. Conventional Correlations are DOA, insisting they are functioning is simply ignoring reality. Yesterday is today shall be tomorrow... best of luck to you in this Dogma. Lagarde and Powell both speak this morning, furthering the All Digital agenda. We will be absent for a number of trading Sessions as we relocate our arrangements over the coming days. Hopefully, to return no later than October 7th. Be well - HK
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by HK_L61
23