Rsidivergence
EthereumLet's take a look at Ethereum.
The uptrend is well maintained for now. The price range of $1,609.41 has been preserved in the downward trend.
On higher time frames, if the $2173.14 resistance zone is fully consumed, we can have an attractive bullish trend.
On the lower time frames, the condition of the upward trend can be the consumption of the range of $1937.12.
The above view is valid on the condition of maintaining the range of $1609.41.
🔴 MATIC Hello Dear friends
The price chart on the daily time is below a downward trend line and so far this trend line has been preserved.
The indicator from RSI has issued a negative divergence on the four-hour time frame.
And as we can see, the resistance areas are not fully consumed. But we lost support areas in almost every corrective move.
Currently, it seems that the possibility of forming a corrective trend is much higher and the possibility of breaking the downward trend line from this range with this movement momentum is very weak.
What do you think?
USDJPY Trend Shift Short Trade SetupOn the 1 hour timeframe USDJPY has shifted from making higher highs and higher lows to barely making any higher highs and now broke the recent swing high.It also found resistance at an important level and made fake higher highs which immediately reversed.The uptrend has ran out of steam and a new downtrend has started.I believe it now a good time to take a short trade and profit from this downtrend as it is still early and at the time of writing this we have a retest at the previous support level that has turned to resistance.There is also a clear RSI divergence emphasising the bearish market.As for stop loss I recommend you set it at around the 141.760 level above the wick of the red candle and for take profit price previously struggled to break a resistance level at around the 140.240 level so this is where I have set my take profit.
This is not a financial advice.Always do your own research.
Counter-Trend Trading opportunityLow Risk, Good Return Trade
A Bearish Shark Pattern has shown up on the AUDUSD 4-hourly chart. As it is not the best trading setup but the second target produces a healthy Profit Factor of 2.
I've shorted the Shark Pattern as it coincides with the 1-hourly chart 3 drive formula.
This is possible because we use our in-house A.P.E framework and this is known as the combo trade.
Low Risk, High Return TradeA combo trade, this is what I call it.
A Bearish Shark Pattern appears on the M15 chart coinciding with the 1-hourly chart Wedge Pattern with a retest of resistance, allowing me to engage the trade base on the M15 chart but allow an extended target on the 1-hourly chart.
As good as it sounds, I'll be placing my stop loss as per usual and will not overtrade this.
A simple trading strategyEarning money can be as simple as waiting for the market to pull back to 0.6631 and waiting for a shorting opportunity.
Trading could be easy; what's not easy for most people is having the patience to wait for the trading opportunity.
They like to get involved in all moves. Mature traders will only wait for the best trading strategy and not get involve in every candlesticks move.
What kind of traders would you be?
Comment down below!!
A counter-trend move, is it a good ideaIf you have been following me for sometime, you would know that I've my bias in looking to long the US Dollar.
At this moment, there isn't such opportunity, but multiple shorting opportunity presents itself, in this moment, the bearish crab pattern, retest on the 4-hourly chart.
I will take the trade once the market has show the confirmation and will treat it as a counter-trend trade.
📊 3 Types Of DivergenceRSI (Relative Strength Index) is a commonly used technical indicator in trading that helps identify overbought and oversold conditions in the market. It measures the strength and speed of price movements and provides traders with valuable insights into potential trend reversals. When analyzing RSI, three types of divergences can be observed: regular, hidden, and exaggerated divergences.
📍Regular Divergence: Regular divergence occurs when the price and the RSI indicator move in opposite directions. There are two types of regular divergences: bullish and bearish.
📍Hidden Divergence: Hidden divergence refers to a situation where the price and the RSI move in the same direction, but the RSI signals a potential trend continuation rather than a reversal.
📍Exaggerated Divergence: Exaggerated divergence is a type of divergence where the RSI signal extends beyond the typical overbought or oversold levels. It suggests that the price is showing extreme momentum and could potentially experience a significant reversal.
In summary, regular, hidden, and exaggerated divergences in RSI analysis provide traders with valuable insights into potential trend reversals and continuations. By understanding these divergences, traders can make more informed decisions regarding their trading strategies and positions in the market.
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The Oldest Pair I've TradedDo you still remember those unforgettable moments when I first embarked on my trading journey with GBPJPY? It holds a special place in my heart as the very first pair I traded, and I stuck with it through the ups and downs until the spread for GBPJPY skyrocketed to 14 pips for an extended period. Oh, the memories!
Presently, GBPJPY finds itself in a captivating sideways movement, offering ample opportunities for those employing the support and resistance trading strategy. It's a perfect scenario for executing the age-old principle of buying low and selling high, or even exploring the realm of harmonic patterns.
Personally, I'm eagerly awaiting the completion of a bearish shark pattern at 173.23, signaling a potential shorting opportunity that aligns with my analysis.
Alternatively, you can choose to navigate the daily chart's defined zone, indicated by the red resistance line at 172.05 and the blue support line at 167.48. Within this trading range lies an enticing profit potential of 457 pips just waiting to be tapped into.
Join me as we delve into the timeless allure of GBPJPY and unleash the vast possibilities it holds for traders like us.
A Closer LookThe Intriguing Factors That Have Sustained My Interest in This Promising Buying Opportunity
When it comes to GBPUSD, my sights are set firmly on one direction: buying opportunities. The stage is set for a potentially lucrative trade, and I'm eagerly awaiting the perfect entry point.
On the 4-hourly chart, a retest of the trendline (right) holds the key to triggering a buying opportunity. As long as the price remains above the lowest trendline, a breakout could present an ideal entry. Alternatively, a break and close above the high at 1.2483 (also on the 4-hourly chart) could be the signal to jump in.
Delving deeper, the 1-hourly chart (left) offers additional scenarios for a potential buying opportunity. A retest of support at 1.2421 or a more significant level at 1.2395 could both serve as triggers for an entry.
But why this unwavering persistence? Let's turn our attention to the weekly chart, where a break and close above resistance becomes a compelling catalyst for my bullish stance. Although we remain within the sell zone, I'm already scouting for buying opportunities, anticipating a potential shift in momentum.
Now, what if I'm wrong? It's a calculated risk. I understand that hitting stops is a possibility, but I mitigate that risk by ensuring most of my trades have a profit factor of 2. This means I can maintain profitability with a 40% accuracy rate.
So, as the GBPUSD landscape unfolds, I remain resolute in my pursuit of buying opportunities, armed with strategic insights and a calculated approach to capitalize on potential gains.
EURUSD RSI Divergence - Bounce incoming?Simple idea here,
A) Touched the downward trendline, even if this turns out to be a downward channel this is the bottom of the range.
B) Deeply oversold on RSI ( <20 on both 1H and 2H ),
C) RSI divergence on the 1H
Just targetting a short term pullback here, short term Target 1.083 but potential for a runner up to the 1.09s.
One last SHOT!!If you have been following, you should know I've been getting into the long position on the AUDCAD to take a ride on the Weekly Chart's 5-0 Pattern.
If you aren't familiar with harmonic patterns,it means I'm looking to have a ride on the bullish trade from a mid to long-term perspective. (approx 2mths)
There are a couple of attempts, and not all went to loss, it fact I'm pretty profitable with these trading ideas when I didn't get what I want.
This is probably the last or the last is near for these trading ideas to work.
I'd engaged the bullish bat pattern on the 4-hourly chart and see if it able to take me to my final target for the 5-0 patterns and beyond.
USDJPY | Bearish Divergence | DownsideUSDJPY is a currency pair that indicates the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Japanese yen. When market analysts mention that USDJPY is in an uptrend, it means that the value of the US dollar is rising against the Japanese yen over time. However, the analysts also note that there is a formation of hidden bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
Bearish divergence refers to a situation where the price of an asset and a technical indicator, such as the RSI, move in opposite directions. In the case of hidden bearish divergence, the price of the asset continues to rise while the RSI indicator starts to decline. This indicates that there may be a weakness in the uptrend and that a reversal may be likely.
When hidden bearish divergence formation on the RSI for USDJPY, it suggests that there is a high chance that the uptrend may be coming to an end, and a downtrend could potentially follow. In this scenario, the Japanese yen may start to gain strength against the US dollar, causing the USDJPY pair to decline.
However, it is important to note that technical analysis tools are not always accurate, and market participants should also take into consideration other factors, such as economic events and political developments that may affect the currency pair's performance. Traders may use technical analysis indicators like the RSI in conjunction with other technical analysis tools to make informed trading decisions.
Did you missed this trade?
Last Week, I mentioned my plan to await a suitable shorting opportunity on the EURUSD, owing to the retest of resistance with RSI divergence. As anticipated, this move resulted in a total profit of 205 pips (equivalent to 2,050 USD/lot) based on the difference between the opening and closing prices.
My strategy for this week remains unchanged, and I am still on the lookout for a new shorting opportunity. At present, I am waiting to initiate a short position at 1.0901 on the 1-hourly chart (left), which represents a key resistance level. Join me as I continue to monitor the market and strive for profitable trades.
A retest of support and Safe House is nearThis particular trading structure may be viewed as an aggressive approach, but it presents a compelling setup for counter-trend traders. The first target is in close proximity, affording the opportunity to adjust our stop-loss to entry once the market reaches that level. This grants us a Risk-Free Trade, providing a favorable risk-to-reward ratio for traders who employ this tactic.
RSI in detail and how to effectively use itWhat is RSI?
RSI stands for Relative Strength Index; The RSI measures the strength of asset's price action by comparing the magnitude of its recent gains to the magnitude of its recent losses.
The RSI is calculated using the average gain and average loss over a specified period, typically 14. The formula for the RSI is:
RSI = 100 - (100 / (1 + RS))
where RS = Average Gain / Average Loss.
To calculate the average gain, add up the gains over the specified period and divide by the number of periods.
Average Gain = Sum of Gains over N periods / N
To calculate the average loss, add up the losses over the specified period and divide by the number of periods.
Average Loss = Sum of Losses over N periods / N
In simple terms : To determine the average gain/loss for the closing price of the asset for each period in the selected time.
Calculate the difference between the closing price of the current period and the closing price of the previous period. If the current closing price is higher than the previous closing price, the difference is considered a gain. If the current closing price is lower than the previous closing price, the difference is considered a loss. Then calculate the average loss by summing up all the losses over the specified time period and dividing them by the number of periods in the timeframe.
What does RSI tell you?
To understand RSI we must understand the term Relative Strength which refers to the ratio of the average gain to the average loss over a specified period. It is used to compare the strength of the stock or asset price gains to its price losses over a certain timeperiod.
For example, let's say we want to calculate the relative strength of a stock over the past 14 trading days. We first need to calculate the average gain and average loss over that period. Suppose the average gain is USD 2 per share, and the average loss is USD 1 per share.
To calculate the Relative Strength (RS), we divide the average gain by the average loss:
RS = Average Gain / Average Loss
= USD2 /USD 1
= 2
RS value greater than 1 indicates that the stock has experienced more gains than losses over the specified time period. In this case, the RS value of 2 indicates that the stock has had twice as many gains as losses over the past 14 trading days. The higher value of relative strength indicates Buyers have been relatively stronger than sellers over a period of the time and vice-versa of the relative strength is below 1, which indicates sellers have been stronger compared to buyers over a period of time.
When the RS remains above 1 over an extended period of time the RSI plot will keep rising, it can have a maximum value of 100. Any value higher than 70 for RSI is considered overbought and an RSI value below 30 is considered oversold.
What is overbought and oversold?
Overbought is a zone in time and the price of an asset that has risen in price rapidly and is now considered to be trading at a higher value than its true worth or fair value.
When an asset becomes overbought, it means that there are more buyers in the market than sellers, causing the price to increase rapidly. This can occur when investors become overly optimistic about the asset's future prospects or when there is a surge in demand for the asset.
However, an overbought asset is not necessarily a signal to sell. In fact, some traders and investors may view an overbought asset as an opportunity to profit from further price gains. Nevertheless, an overbought asset is often seen as a warning sign that the price may be due for a correction or pullback, as it may have become detached from its underlying fundamentals or economic conditions.
Oversold conditions are simply the opposite of overbought.
Why is RSI above 70 considered overbought?
The reason a reading above 70 is considered overbought in RSI is because it is a widely used and accepted threshold. The value of 70 is not based on any specific mathematical or statistical calculation, but rather it is a commonly used level that has been found to be effective over time. Now because it's a commonly used threshold it becomes self-fulfilling prophecy, where everyone starts acting on it and start selling the asset or at least being to anticipate coming pull back, which leads to slowdown in buying and increased selling, which causes RSI to start going down in oversold territory and the cycle is repeats.
How to effectively use RSI?
For a long trade:
Step 1: Use it on mid to high term timeframe ideally 4h and above.
Step 2: Wait for the RSI to come to the oversold zone.
Step 3: To make sure RSI oversold conditions are to be trusted for entering a trade, the Price must be a key support level and holding it.
Step 4: If all above conditions are met, then fearlessly enter a trade.
For a Short trade:
Step 1: Use it on mid to high term timeframe ideally 4h and above.
Step 2: Wait for the RSI to come to the overbought zone.
Step 3: To make sure RSI overbought conditions are to be trusted for entering a trade, the Price must be a key resistance level and rejecting it.
Step 4: If all above conditions are met, then fearlessly enter a trade.
What happens if Price fails to hold Support or Breaches Resistance in step 3 above?
That's where divergences come into play.
What is a divergence?
Divergence is a technical analysis concept that occurs when the price of an asset and its RSI indicator move in opposite directions, indicating a potential trend reversal.
There are two types of RSI divergences: bullish divergence and bearish divergence.
Bullish divergence occurs when the price of an asset makes a new low while the RSI indicator makes a higher low. Remember from explanation provided in sections above, this suggests that even though the price is going lower there
are more buying activities than selling and the assets are becoming stronger, and a potential trend reversal may be imminent.
Bearish divergence, on the other hand, occurs when the price of an asset makes a new high while the RSI indicator makes a lower high.
I have highlighted bullish divergence in chart with purple line.
Bullish and Bearish Divergences are even more powerful signals for taking trades, but we must make sure price is holding a support or rejecting from a resistance before taking the trades, otherwise divergences can easily disappear.
Why do traders fail to effectively use RSI?
The primary reason is lack of experience in trading.
Which leads to impatient behavior.
No risk management skills. (Taking too much risk)
Lack of trust in self when taking trades, (Keep stopping losses too tight which knocks them out of the trades).
I have show several instances where RSI generated long signals and all of them were successful , the only reason a trader would not be able to use RSI effectively is because of above reasons.