Get started

Rising Wedge

Btc about to hit smaller double bottom breakout target.I’m sure this chart looks like a mess to most of you but every line currently on the chart is part of a pattern that is currently in play. We can see the smaller double bottom pattern we have been above the neckline of for a few days has a breakout target of 47.7k which it appears we are currently heading to now. In doing so, price action has also hoisted itself above the neckline of another larger double bottom (top green horizontal) and if it can hold support on that neckline the breakout target for the larger double bottom is around 54k! 54k also happens to be the same breakout target zone for the falling wedge(not shown here) that we broke up from back in January or February and had been charting since last December…so its nice to see that sort of bullish confluence. We are also finally seeing price action considerably above our tan rising wedge here which is a good sign especially if we can maintain its top trendline as support. The smaller double bottom’s breakout target of 47.7k takes us right up to the top trendline of our rising channel (in purple) so it would not be unexpected if we see that line maintain resistance at first. I imagine we may send a wick above it to test the 200ma and initially see a rejection that sends price action back down to retest the larger double bottoms neckline for support, at which time I’m guessing the bigger dbl bttm’s neckline will hold support and once it confirms its breakout is when we will finally break above the purple rising channel as well as the 200ma (in blue). We shall see though because we always have to anticipate an unexpected black swan event could send us 180 degrees the opposite way as well. For nw though, the charts are lookin super bullish. *not financial advice*
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
2
GBPJPY - Loss of Momentum Into StructureLast week we looked at this same pair & I was waiting for a double top to form as price broke into a previous level of structure resistance from the daily/weekly timeframe (Brexit Zone). Well we never got our double top (which brings up another valuable lesson about why we have RULES for patterns & the importance of following them), but the general prediction still holds true. Looking at current price movement along with the slope of the previous upward trend, it should be clear that we are losing momentum as we push deeper into resistance. Because of this I would expect some sort of relief to come as the buying pressure starts to lesson and new sellers begin to enter the market. Currently there are no signs of reversal as far as trade entry go, but this pair will once again be high on my watchlist for the week ahead. I hope you guys enjoyed the breakdown! If so please do me a favor and hit that like button to show your support. Also feel free to leave me any questions or comments that you may have about the pair or my analysis. Wishing you a GREAT week of trading! Akil *Note - I thought I shared my idea for this pair on tradingview last week, but apparently it was in the Live Stream from March 23rd 2022
Short
by Akil_Stokes
2
Rising wedge and is time for BTC to dump!!!We have this nice rising wedge on btc. We have one small fakeout with purpose to trap the bulls and confirmation of that is low volume. I entered my short position at 44.5k because of the daily resistance and i am planing to add more money into the position, if we close 4 hourly back into the rising wadge. This fakeouts most of the time means fest moves to the downside with big volume from the bears. I hope my bulls are not disappointed with my statement but this is how the market is reacting at the moment. What do you think about this Rising wedge ? Feel free to leave a comment. If you like my ideas please follow me and like the post because i am posting every day and you can find always something interesting on my profile, i am new to Treadingview but i have 6 years expirience in trading. BTC TO THE MOON!!!
Short
by Mladen94
1
SPY Continued Downside - Hidden DivergenceChart Even t: Bearish Divergences on multiple timeframes. Rising wedge pattern on 65m and lower timeframes. Confluence : Bearish Divergence on 65m timeframe. Hidden Bearish Divergence on daily timeframe. Rising Wedge pattern (bearish) on 65m and lower timeframes. MACD very wide. Volume decreasing. Death Cross moving average event occurred a few days ago. Price action is nearing old resistance levels along with the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level. RSI overbought on 65m timeframe. Trade Idea : Put Swings Contract Suggestions (depending on Monday's open) : Best: 4/8/22 450P Riskier 4/6/22 450P Riskiest 4/1/22 450P I will likely buy both the 4/8 and the 4/1 contracts, heavily weighted to the 4/8 contracts to allow this time for this move to play out.
AMEX:SPYShort
by cloud9futures
3
BTC - DAILY - RISING WEDGE IN PROGRESS !As mentioned in my yesterday's analysis,(RSI bearish divergence), the successful breakout of the former high @ 43'492 triggered further upside move towards, as expected, a high so far above the 45'000 area, with an intraday high so far 45'137. We can see on this DAILY chart to different patterns : 1) A BROAD TRIANGLE PATTERN (currently attempting to breakout to the upside) 2) A RISING WEDGE FORMATION IN PROGRESS (potentially warning bearish signal !) What does it mean ? Well, today's closing level will may be bring more clues about the future development as the 44'800-45'000 area should be seen as an important zone to break at it represents on one hand, the downtrend line resistance of the triangle pattern previously mentioned and on the other hand the top of the rising wedge pattern in progress. Therefore, a failure to successfully breakout the 45'000 area would put again a renewed selling pressure with 42'600 as first support level, ahead of 41'250 and 40'671, the latter level being the MID BOLLINGER BAND. ON THE UPSIDE, the weekly MBB @ 45'408 will be the first resistance level to look at ahead of the top of the weekly clouds, currently @ 45'937. GLOBALLY ON A WEEKLY PICTURE, WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET, THE KIJUN-SEN STILL IN RESISTANCE ! IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
The predicted market crash... Can it get any worse? Yes!The predicted market crash... Can it get any worse? well, yes! •Short since $4731 (closed some of my shorts today)↘️🔻 written on: 19:16 Thursday, February 24th, 2022 Central European Time ( CET ) S&P 500 Index (and the entire market with it) The TA: We broke out of the rising wedge on the 18th of January. We retested the wedge as resistance on January 18th. The target price of the wedge breakout towards the downside was roughly $4111.96, which hit today. The chart has now formed a head and shoulders pattern, which we broke the neckline off today. We will probably retest the neckline. If we can't break that resistance, the Head and Shoulders is confirmed following a 3735 target. We also broke our long term trendline that we had as support since the beginning of the recovery of the 2020 covid crash (I will make a seperate idea on that one). The squeeze momentum indicator, by Lazybear just turned red and we have a bearish monthly MACD cross. •Almost every indicator suggests that we are overvalued in the long term. 94% correlation between the Nasdaq 100 in the 15 years to today, and the 15 years to 2000. The S&P500 shows a 95% correlation. We all know what happened during 2000s, the markets collapsed. shiller PE ratio is currently sitting at 34.27 on the day of writing this (the last time I updated this, it was sitting at 40.14 so it has come down a bit, but we still have a long way to go). The mean is at 16.92 and the median is at 15.87. 34.27/16.88*100≈ 203% 203-100= 103% This means that we are possibly 103% overvalued. •The warren buffet indicator is telling us that we are strongly overvalued. The indicator sits at a 195% Market value to GDP ratio. The exponential trendline suggests that a Market Value to GDP ratio of 120% to be fairly valued. We are 51% higher than the long-term trendline. (this was 71% the last time) What is going on in the world? •Russia vs Ukraine war. This is very bad news and I hope that everyone stays safe. Money is way less important then the lives of innocent people. No one wants war. The Russian index crashed 45%, before rebounding during the trading session. The indexes in Europe also got crushed, just like the s&p500. We recovered the losses in the late trading hours which is very impressive. •The number of Nasdaq stocks that have hit a 52-week low now dwarfs even that of the 2000 dot-com bubble and global financial crisis. It looks like the high multiple, tech stock bubble might have already burst. The s&p500 is just lagging behind and can go much lower then the current valuations. A ton of stocks; large or mid cap, value or growth have been absolutely devastated since I started writing about a crash: •The FED is going to increase its interest rates, because the inflation is getting out of hand. 7.5% is the highest we have seen since the 1980s. We don’t know the ammount and the number of times that they are going to increase the interest rates, but 50 pivot points in march looks realistic to me. When the interest are getting an increase, it works like an anker on the stock market. And because we have so much debt right now, this could lead to even more pain then what we have seen. You don't want a hawkish FED as your opponent. Historically, the inflation has grown slowly, but during this and last year the inflation went through the roof. •Members of congress and people in the government (clearly insiders: looking at you nancy pelosi) are not allowed to own stocks anymore very soon? Correct me if I am wrong on this one. •The Canadian real estate bubble is so big, that even the mother of all crashes can’t fix it. The composite benchmark, (a.k.a. a typical home) was $798,200 in December, up 27.8% from a year before. It is at an all-time high for both price and annual growth. betterdwelling.com Mortgage lenders are about to get destroyd. Just looking at the current market and where rates are going is a recipe for disaster. In the last few years, they had between 2-3x regular refinance volume. Leaving a large pool of borrowers who will not to refinance for at leat 3-5 years. •Mortgage rates have risen almost a full 1% in just the last 2 months, will likely raise another 1% by End Of Year. This will further slow demand. Housing market starting to show signs of cooling. Worst case scenarios is housing values drop even more which will cause cash out refinances to dry up as well. Lenders are starting to lay people off. I have heard some shops are reporting declines. •canadian tv reminding people that bank deposits are ensured. (The Royale Bank of Canada made this advertisement as well). •billionaire investors have a lot of cash ontheir hands. •Michael Burry and a ton of other famous investors predict that the markets will collapse. Warren Buffett has stopped buying new shares. Michael burry has sold his positions •Palantir warns people of a black swan event. •energy crisis in China and Europe. A lot of factory's in China are shutting down or slowing down because they have no power. This only got worse today since Russia attacked Ukraine, the oil prices peaked at $105.74. Every time that the oil prices reached prices above $100, we entered a recession after that. With the current sanctions against Russia, we can expect commodities like gas and oil to rise even further. Which could lead to even more inflation. •reverse repo has never been this high. 1,738.322 billion usd (that is more then a trillion!!!). The Fed's reverse repo facility allows big institutions - mostly big banks and money-market mutual funds - to buy securities from the Fed with an agreement to sell them back to the central bank for a specified price at a specific time. •Jpegs are getting sold for millions of dollars, which looks like the Dutch tulips bubble to me. •Prices have been sky-high in the last months for almost everything, could we be in an everything bubble? •With the old measurements, CPI / Inflation is above 15%, that is just as bad as the top in 1982 (instead of 7.5%). •fibonacci extension tells us that $4875.56 could be the end. (the top is $4818.62, for now. So I my prediction was 1.16% off) •stablecoin Tether has been in trouble for a long time. When tether crashes, everything crashes with it. 80% of BTC’s volume goes through Tether. So when Tether falls, Bitcoin falls and when Bitcoin falls, everything falls with it. •supply chain issues and shortages for almost everything. •Indexes like XRT with 1200% short interests (GME is in this index) •historic records amount of margin: When everyone is using a lot of margin in the markets, things can change very quickly for the worse, because their positions can get liquidated. If people with leveraged long-positions starts to get liquidated, more people start to get liquidated since the price has gone down even more. etc. etc. etc. (until the market has fully crashed). Not only that, retail investors are going to panic sell in such an event. the only thing that needs to happen for a trend reversal is a bad event. Like seriously, since when can retail investors use more then 100x leverage? •We printed a ton of money during the COVID-19 period. When we had the 2020 march crash, the stock market recovered insanely fast, even when the economy was falling. The recovery happened because we printed so much money to support the company's (not because the businesses were performing great). --> •The markets are not based on fundamentals anymore: 1 million+ people dead due to covid? No problem, the market goes up by 30%. Millions of people getting unemployed in the US and the rest of the world? Not a problem, the market goes up by another 30%. Businesses declaring bankruptcy? It didn't matter. we just kept on going up. Almost every business was experiencing massive losses while their stock price was skyrocketing. The money printing led to massive inflation. The supply chain issues made this even worse. We have to pay for our mistakes now. The FED has to force a recession. •Eliott waves suggest that a big crash is going to happen. We are in wave 5 in the long term chart from 2008 until now (and possibly the 100 year chart as well). So the next wave will be a market correction. "The bubble": massive credit to u/BigTechEqualsValud: www.reddit.com "It is clear stocks are in a massive bubble based on their Price to Sale (P/S valuation). Warren Buffett stated that his favorite means of valuing stock was the stock market capitalization to GDP ratio. Below is a chart for this metric. As you can see, the stock market today is as overvalued relative to the economy as it was at the peak of the 1999 Tech Mania. r/wallstreetbets - We are in Tech Bubble 2.0, but it's actually the everything bubble So stocks are overvalued based on the most reliable corporate data point (revenues) and they are also overvalued relative to the economy. Scratch that, they're not overvalued... they're trading at 1999-Tech Bubble insanity levels. This time the FED has created a bubble in everything. A "risk-free rate" of return against which ALL risk assets are valued. Comparing to 1999 tech bubble, 2008 housing market bubble, this will be considered the 2022 Digitial Currency/EV bubble. Look at the 10-20 year charts for any automotive company. It is not pretty. So what makes Rivian and LCID worth more than GM or Toyota? Nothing, since its a bubble. I will rule out Tesla on this one since we know damn well they make money, have an incredible CEO, and produce something tangible unlike these others. Tesla is still overvalued and it will go down with the digital currency/ev crash, but most likely not as hard as other competitors". •Evergrande defaulted on its debt and is now restructuring, we will have to see how that goes. But its still massively in debt and the bonds were never payed according to dr Metzler. DMSA and dr Metzler has a class action lawsuit against Evergrande to file them for bankruptcy. This •Evergrande is still one of the biggest real estate developers, but people seem to forget about this very dangerous problem. Evergrande still has to pay 305 billion USD. They haven't even paid of 1% of their debt. So who are the biggest bagholders of the $305B in bad bonds? --> There are several American and Canadian banks that Evergrande ows money to: First we've got the Royale Bank of Canada which has $46B in evergrande bonds with a Evergrande is not the only Chinese property business with huge amounts of debt. A ton of other Chinese property company’s have defaulted so far. Some of them are now bankrupt. If you were wondering why there was that weird after hours - the stock dropped 64% during AH in one day, but then they fixed the "glitch" and the price went back up. RBC looked worthless and this was just the real view of the bank's financial state when the bonds hit zero. The media told us that the bonds from November 10th were payed, however DMSA says otherwise. Dr . Metzler, the owner of DMSA bought Evergrande bonds because he had a suspicion that the bond payments were not made. So he knew he wouldn’t get his money back. He just wanted to proof his theory. So we could be being lied to (however I’m not a fan of conspiracy theory’s) THE BONDS WERE NOT PAYED!!! Conclusion: the TA looks bad and so does everything going on in the world right now. If this ends up happening it will be a fantastic buying opportunity. The S&p500 could go higher to the 5500s (which won’t happen in my opinion), but a crash is inevitable. It has already correcIf it doesn't happen this year, then it will probably happen in the next 2 years. Its a ticking time bomb. Its just a matter of time when all of this comes together and It *could* happen very, very soon. Do you really want to risk a 10-20% return when the market could fall 50% or more? You can cash out now and buy back 2x the amount of the shares after the crash. And get 2.5x the amount of shares that you could buy now. (this probably doesn’t make a lot of sense anymore. If you bought normal stocks, you are already down like 50% so it doesn’t make a lot of sense to sell with such a big loss). Buy great deals like PayPal or similair stocks that are already down more then 50%
TVC:SPXShort
by Y_Duursma
2
BTC Daily, A Quick RecapHere are the most important BTC levels for us to be watching IMO We are in a large area of resistance on the macro TF and I would really like to see BTC break up out of this rising wedge pattern and out of this large area of resistance. If we decide to break to the upside my next targets would be 50k, 55k, and 59k, I will be watching closely because if for some reason BTC could break through all this resistance (good news, economical news etc) then we could see BTC have another strong rally higher. But in saying all that we will prepare for both a bull market continuation and a bear market. I think it is very important we keep an open mind here and just be patient.
by UnknownUnicorn15302902