The difference between Prediction and Analysis..!A prediction, or forecast, is a statement about a future event. They are often, but not always, based upon experience or knowledge. There is no universal agreement about the exact difference from "estimation"; different authors and disciplines ascribe different connotations.
Analysis is the process of breaking a complex topic or substance into smaller parts in order to gain a better understanding of it. The technique has been applied in the study of mathematics and logic since before Aristotle (384–322 B.C.), though analysis as a formal concept is a relatively recent development.
It would be a learning opportunity if you review my RIOT,MARA,and BITCOIN analysis since November 2020.
Please read the comments below the posts, some said RIOT is a scam, some said “haha” to price target.
But they did not bother themselves to read the merits behind my analysis..!
Moshkelgosha
RIOT
RIOT: Afraid of a pullback? A few points to keep in mind!Hello traders and investors! Let’s talk about RIOT today! This one is flying, but is there any reason to worry about it? Let’s see.
First, in the hourly chart we see that it is showing some weakness, but this alone is not going to be enough to make it drop. Yes, it might do a top lower than the previous top, as evidenced by the purple line, but RIOT did this sometimes in the past, and it didn’t work.
I would focus more on the black line at $ 58.78 , because it would lose the previous bottom along with the 21 ema, and this would be something new for the stock. So, the black line is a possible Pivot Point , that could trigger a short-term bear trend, and sharper pullback in the daily chart:
The black line in the 1h chart is today’s low, and so far, we can assume we have a classic Bearish Harami candlestick pattern here. Since it is not near any resistance level, it is not a reliable reversal sign, but it could work as a pullback.
The volume is quite high on RIOT, which is curious, as the volume on BTC has been decreasing in the past few days.
If RIOT triggers a pullback by losing the points mentioned above, the next stop would be the 21 ema . I find it hard to tell if it could seek the support at the $ 29.28, as it is too far away right now, so, I would focus on the 21 ema first.
This would be a pullback, but we have no reversal signs around . In fact, as far as I know, pullbacks are opportunities to buy at a cheaper price, with an optimized Risk/Reward ratio. But first, RIOT must trigger the pivot in the 1h chart!
Let’s follow RIOT closely and remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses on stocks and indices. Also, support this idea if you liked it!
For more analyses, just check the links below.
Thank you very much!
RIOT PullbackLooks like we've established to volume zones. I dont want to go as far as to say they are Support though. The green box is where we found buyers in the hard selloff today on unemployment news. What does unemployment have to do with crypto or a company with 7 employees? Well I'm sure you know the answer to that. It also looks like we've decoupled RIOTs price level from BTC because the crypto price is back up near all time highs and RIOT has sold off and is trailing now.
Personally I bought the dip and went net long. I pulled back the long positions to a lower price point and moved one out to next weeks expiry.
RIOT Volume and price actionThe volume of the first day this thing started to move a week ago vs today, its higher. The selloff this morning while BTC was staying steady spooked me a little bit so I sold off my LEAPS and a few calls that were already in a profit. Going forward, I'm just going to go with more of a neutral strategy, expecting that one day where we get a big selloff. With the current price action and volume though, it might not come. We do have to expect it though and not give back the majority of our gains.
This is my strategy until something changes:
Put and Call side Back ratios:
Sell 1 Put at the money, 2 at a distance away where I can either do it for no cost or a small credit. Same thing on the Call side.
The risk on this strategy is if the stock doesnt move the $10 a day. Essentially i will end up with one extra call or put in the direction of the movement. Opening of the next trading day, I'll make adjustments, if it keeps going in a direction I can eventually buy back the short calls/puts and have free ones to cover retracement. I'll cover the in the money spreads as needed and re-establish
At this point I'm still long on it until it stops going up!
EBON crypto mining machinesWith all this crypto hype, mara and riot rallying to new highs, and BTC continuing its bullish rally, what can we look at that is still cheap and related to these big names like Mara and Riot? ..... Well thats where we have $EBON, a chip design company and a manufacturer of high performance bitcoin mining machines. Now with BTC rallying to new highs this a blockchain stock to 100% add to your WL! Now from a TA standpoint $EBON is currently retesting a multi month downtrend and is looking primed to breakout and start its reversal back to ATH! Keep an eye on volume if we break that downtrend resistance and that will give us a confirmed sign of reversal. Now we have er approaching soon so any long term option contracts I will hold off till then and play the crypto hype short term w/ the ER run up.
Key Levels:
Support: 5.75, 5.21, 4.69
Resistance: 7.20, 7.92, 8.66,10.90
Ways to Play This:
1.Load shares and possibly sell covered calls
2. Enter on the breakout of the downtrend resistance line with month out option contracts
3. If we see a pull back enter on a dip (5.30-6.17) load zone (options or shares)
Option Ideas:
extremely high IV on these tread carefully here
Leap strikes are being added so possible 1/2022 Calls on this
7.5C 7/16 2.90 (Medium Risk: High Reward)
7.5C 3/19 1.88 (High Risk: High Reward)
10C 2/19 .30 (LOTTO)
RIOT STOCK IDEA I've been following the trend since it was around $38 - $40,
and I even profit from it, but unfortunately, I sold the shares
I bought at $45, not knowing the stock was going to get to this point.
I could have made more than $200 out of putting $300!
I am pretty sure, it will bounce back down tomorrow to start the new
uptrend coming up which will most likely get to $65 or more!
How much further up? I pulled in some size, I have no idea where the top is on this. I reduced some size locking in some gains and buying much further out options for the long term. I'm actually considering to sell naked puts at the $35-40 level hoping to get assigned. Would'nt mind at all buying some discount shares at that level. Long term there is some growth here, could a pull back come? One thing that could prevent it is constant news of companies jumping onboard with Bitcoin. If we get major players announcing on a daily basis there is no stopping any of this from going up.
Take some profits off the table here and save some bullets for later. If it pulls back for even 1 or 2 days the break would make the move stronger and build some support underneath the current level. I like this stock
Don’t waste time trading cryptos, Stock is the Hottest market!You may not believe it but I published several intermarket analysis that could be a learning opportunity for avid traders and investors.
Most Bitcoin traders and investors think they have the best performance with 254% gain since November 2020. But they will become depressed if they check the Bitcoin miners stocks performance such as RIOT(+1400%),MARA (+1730%), or a biotechnology company BNGO(2640%) gain in the same time period..!
Seems unbelievable, but I published my analysis on RIOT @3.87, MARA @2.37 and BNGO @0.52 ..!
Please check the related topic and judge yourself!
There lots of opportunities if you know how to pick the correct stocks.
HUT - Cup and Handle pattern on dailyThis canadian bitcoin miner has formed a nice cup and handle on the 4 hour and daily chart. I prefer handles that do not go past the 50% Fib retracement. Potential catalyst would be uplisting to Nasdaq exchange from OTC for US traders and the OTC symbol is HUMF. I like MARA RIOT and HUT here in bitcoin mining sector. HUT has $48 mill net cash , while Mara and Riot have less net cash. HUT uses natural gas and Wind farms for energy, so a little cheaper production cost compared to MARA and RIOT. HUT has 3000 BTC inventory, MARA 4812 and RIOT 1053. *I live 2 hours away from their mining facility. Go Bitcoin! :)
BITCOIN and major GPU producers, NVDA, AMD(intermarket analysis)One of the most important hardwares needed for mining processes is GPU, NVDA and AMD make the best ones!
Although they have positive correlation with Bitcoin price, during hyperbolic phase they move at much lower speed, unlike major miners such as RIOT and MARA which surpass Bitcoin itself.
Moshkelgosha
BTC Bullish Pennant formed on the 1 hour! Next leg up to 50k?What's up guys, been away over seas I am back! I see a lot of fire going on lately with stocks and Crypto!
Bitcoin is SUPER Bullish and I believe this pennant is setting up for a major break out to 50k+!!! Or it can correct down a little more and than go back up! Its hard to tell.
Lets play it out! Deffinitely fireworking next few days coming!
RIOT option call March/26th 28$ strike why riot?? well
that tesla dude tweeted and bought a bunch on BC sooooo i decided to buy in butttt not BC i like the company that mines that shitttt
its almost a no brainer, i see some solid momentum and im always down to ride a wave baby.
its also a cheep stock for young traders to push up.
the ticker symbol alone is funny LOL
A low-value stock FTFT have a greater assets and potentialI checked the announcement of Future Fintech Group (NASDAQ: FTFT). In the past six months, they have successively issued announcements to acquire Hong Kong Nice Talent Asset Management, Sichuan Tema supply chain management, Indonesia Asiasens Investment Holding and Bitcoin Bank in the Caribbean, Blocknance etc, but none of them seemed to have officially completed the acquisition. As a small retail investor, I called to ask about this. Their staff answered mainly because of the Covid-19, which prevented the due diligence from being implemented as planned. The approval of the local government of the acquired company was also delayed due to the Covid-19.
However, it should continue in the near future. M&A will be completed. I personally think that FTFT itself is a blockchain concept stock. The stock price has recently risen with the skyrocketing of Bitcoin; once these acquisitions are completed, the stock cannot rise 10 times? I have listed these announcements. What do my friends think? Let's discuss it together. Maybe there is another GME hidden here.
Intermarket Analysis of Bitcoin and Major Bitcoin Miners1st we should look at the definition of Intermarket Analysis:
Intermarket analysis is a method of analyzing markets by examining the correlations between different asset classes. In other words, what happens in one market could, and probably does, affect other markets, so a study of the relationship(s) could prove to be beneficial to the trader.(Investopedia)
Instead of looking at financial markets or asset classes on an individual basis, intermarket analysis looks at several strongly correlated markets, or asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities. This type of analysis expands on simply looking at each individual market or asset in isolation by also looking at other markets or assets that have a strong relationship to the market or asset being considered.(investopedia)
Intermarket analysis should be considered fundamental analysis in that it relies more on relationships to provide a general sense of direction, but, it is often classified as a branch of technical analysis. There are different approaches to intermarket analysis, including mechanical and rule-based.(investopedia)
After talking about the definition of Intermarket analysis, let’s see how Bitcoin rallies affect the stocks price of the major North American Bitcoin miners Marathon Patent Group (MARA) and RIOT Blockchain.
This bullish rally started on March 13th , 2020. So far Bitcoin scored from 3850 to 46000 and rewarded the investor astronomical return. But if you look at the return of MARA and RIOT, all of a sudden you will noticed that the very similar correlation exists between Gold price and Gold miners stocks is present between Bitcoin and Bitcoin miners stock price.
I published many articles about this in the last 4 months, when Bitcoin was 12400, I predict the sharp move, and asked people to invest in Bitcoin instead of trading it for the next 2 years..!
Any time we had a correction, I said don’t panic.
But at the very same time, I published my view on RIOT and MARA, and wrote that if there is going to be a Bullish rally, miners will win the race!
Now you can see that how true it is. Don’t ignore this correlation..!
Moshkelgosha (SniperTrader)
RIOT update from FEB 5My apologies, new here and thus have been flagged for not following house rules and suggesting everyone check out these amazing indicators, don't do that, and I will no longer be asking for you to do so... Lesson learned, moving on...From now on just enjoy these charts, hit that like button and follow if you want more ideas. I will be posting more trading ideas/instructions with my main focus being area of value trades and breakouts like this one!!!
From my post Friday (this same chart here) we now have a 50% gain (a 7X move on the option...) be ready for a pullback but I am long RIOT in the age of crypto...
I entered the FEB 19 calls before close friday. Cheers to all who got in!