RIOT Swing Trade 5/27/2021Look at day chart and week chart, consolidation on the 200 SMA for the day chart and major break out above 9 SMA. Bearish doji and morning star on week chart, also a break in the 27.50 resistance. Price is going to be heavily based on the price of BTC. BTC broke 9 SMA on the daily and nearing break on the 200 SMA, with a MACD flip and a RSI coming back from 30. Double bottom on BTC with higher lows, broke 40k resistance. Great trade! This is not financial advice, I am not advocating the buying or selling of RIOT stock.
RIOT
We Have Not Reached the Bottom YetThough cryptocurrency as a whole and its related stocks like MARA and RIOT have been declining by almost 11-15% a day recently, the bottom has not yet been found. Farther we dive, searching towards the end of May for low levels with more support.
As you can see, there is strong resistance ahead with the red line marking each one in time.
When a stock is this bearish, it is necessary to find a real bottom, the lowest absolute price and consolidation before an uptrend, before ever investing in it again. If I was holding, I'd keep holding.
As it is, I'm not yet ready to buy this stock. I'd like to see it fall further, to pre-hype and inflated levels.
The new price target has fallen from $95 to $55. That's like a 50% cut! This could go down to $15...
Good to take into consideration for the time being.
Best of luck and loving peace to all.
Bitcoin Crossed Below 200 EMAI can not convince you that Bullish run for bitcoin has Gone!
Atleast check all my previous Bitcoin analyses!
I did whatever could do..! decision is yours to make!
I asked short Bitcoin on April 13, 2021, when it was 62-64K
I predicted NIO top on January 11th, 2021 (2 weeks before it happen).
Tesla Top on February 17:
NYSE:GME
when it was 325 on January 30th, 2021
NASDAQ:TLRY Top on February 11th, when it was 63!
Whole EV maker sector on February 18:
NASDAQ:RIOT top on Feb 18, 2021 when it was 62
I asked everyone to buy Gold when it was 1700 on March 6th,
Many people called me stupid, scammer, ...etc, but at least I know I started this to help others!
I know I had mistakes but review my works and judge yourself..!
Moshkelgosha
RIOT BUY/LONG BIG OPPORTUNITY! 15 to 97 by end 2021! TICKER CODE: RIOT
Company Name: Riot Blockchain, Inc.
Industry: Technology | Software - Application | USA
Position Proposed: BUY
Technical Analysis
1. Flag Pattern (Forming)
2. Fibonacci Retracement at 0.786 ( Silver Zone)
3. 1st Partial Take Profit will be at Fibonacci Expansion Safe Take Profit, Flagpole Length and somewhere near Key Structure Level (Very likely for price rejection/Pullback)
4. 2nd Partial Take Profit would be somewhere near the Next Key Structure Level (The Market will very likely reach this point before having a major rejection again)
Entry: NOW READY (15.00-26.00) - The Market could fall below 26.00 again but very unlikely
1st Partial Take Profit: 97.00 (October - End 2021)
2nd Partial Take Profit: 2.95 (End 2021)
3rd Take Profi: 3.75 (Mid-End 2022)
Note that in the Monthly chart timeframe the market is creating a large inverted Head & Shoulders, as such I will still hold some of this stock on hand. Should the market break beyond 145, the next take profit will be at roughly 200-250 price range.
Trade Idea: RIOT June 18th 17 or August 20th 15 Short PutRIOT announces earnings on Monday, so I'm not keen on stepping in front of what is likely to be a moving bus. However, I may consider something post-earnings and wanted to price things out here ahead of time to give me some idea as to where I might want to set up up my tent and what that might be paying. Unfortunately, the weeklies aren't that great for liquidity, and there's no July monthly at the moment, so would either have to trade June (33 days) or August (96 days). So, like, which one?
June implied is at a whopping 185.3% (no doubt due to earnings); August at 120.7%.
The June 18th 14 delta 17 strike is paying 1.23 at the mid, 7.8% ROC at max, 86.3% annualized; the August 20th 13 delta 15, 1.88, 14.3% at max, 54.4% annualized. I'm using the same approximate delta for both expiries to kind of compare "apples to apples."
Naturally, there are trade-off's. The shorter duration, similarly delta'd June 17 pays more on an annualized basis, but it's closer to at the money. Conversely, the August 20th 15 pays less on an annualized basis, but is farther away from current price, so gives you more room to be wrong, as well as more premium to potentially take off at 50% max -- 50% max of 1.23 is .61; 50% max of 1.88 is .94.
Additionally, the August setup has a smaller buying power effect versus the June: 13.12 versus June's 15.77 (cash secured). On margin, the difference will be smaller with a buying power effect for the 17 being around 3.40; the 15, 3.00 even.
For me, it boils down to answering the question: "Am I comfortable with acquiring it at 17 or more comfortable at acquiring it at 15?" To me, the answer is "lower," and so am mostly likely to go with the August setup. Naturally, this will all be moot if it takes off like a rocket post-earnings, in which case I won't put on a trade.
Will MARA be a buy at $13-14? I've been watching RIOT and MARA fall epically down the last month from their amazing highs.
We've had a small bounce on Friday after a series of lower lows, but with BTC continuing its descent to 48k, MARA will most likely continue to slide in May as well, unless something major changes.
I'm planning for a buy-in around $13-14, where there is some support.
Otherwise, shorter term, there may be a small rally this week as it's currently oversold, to the Fibonacci 50% level of $25.43
Ideally, one could buy MARA around $5, and hold til $15 or so. I'm not sure if that low is in the cards this year. Bitcoin would have to fall much further I would think. We shall see.
SPY has also been hitting some bear signals, and we've seen it fall in the last two weeks as well.
RIOT getting oversold on bull wedge, but it's still toast!So RIOT has been a hugely fun stock to trade, and with my 42k/30k BTC projection, it is easy to see why.
Today RIOT reported an underwhelming 1771 BTC has been mined by their operation, with a 'today market value' of about 100m. And they are maybe going to add some capacity if semiconductor shortages and bitmain are able to deliver more. Sporting a market cap of 2.5B today, this is quite a premium for a weak bitcoin generation operation. If you are also thinking bitcoin struggles in the short term, the future value is even lower. Plus, bitcoin adjusts difficulty every ten days, so if others are adding hardware, it is possible the expected gains from additional hardware may be cut somewhat. Of course, the opposite of all these things could also happen - and even if they did, this thing is still way, way too expensive! I would expect a market cap around the 500m range, or about 1/5 of where it trades today if my predictions are true, and if I am exactly wrong and things double instead of halve, perhaps you could get to a 1B value, implying a 60% premium today.
Technically, it looks like we might find support in this ~~30 zone - including from a bull wedge formation. This would imply a bounce toward thick green uptrend line - call it 35-37, but frankly I don't see any catalyst to push through it except a massive BTC rally. My short term (call it June-ish) is 20-25 with a longer term September target range of 10-17.
Very disturbingly, the small mini rally on BTC from under 50k to 58k over the past few weeks saw RIOT's price continue to decline - exactly not what one would expect! There is a clear descending triangle forming (blue lines), weakening RSI, MACD - none of the things you'd want to see (weekly MACD looks atrocious). This wedge might get you a chance to get out and get short, if you're not already. GL!
SOS Update 5/9/2021 "DIVERGANCE"Hello, it's been a while. Due to all the crypto craze during all of April, now rolling into May and the summer time, I wanted to give SOS a chance react.
With SOS earnings in sight, it pleases me to know there's opportunity at such a low price. The 3 month trend as seen above is a classic example of a bullish divergence. A bullish divergence can be easily described as a technical indicator where the price-action of an asset makes lower low's during a downtrend, and the technical indicator I am using MACD is making higher low's despite the stock's price action + volume is decreasing therefore consolidating. This behavior represents support.
This is not guaranteed but when a divergence indicator is identified, there are good odds that we'll see a reversal. I'm just curious how much SOS has been making by mining Ethereum, that's all.
(((Trade and invest with caution, and practice risk management always)))
As always, I will continue to observe SOS daily. Follow for updates.
$RIOT. Saw a blockchain appear in scan. Thought that was cool.They sell crypto-mining computers.
I'm remembering when I wanted some affiliates to do crypto-mining with me back in 2017. The people I talked to thought I was being stupid, or I couldn't do it, or idk it's not really worth guessing.
How am I constantly talking to the wrong people? *He wonders while polling the public of tradingview*
MARA Continues to Trade in ChannelMARA is one of the largest crypto mining companies in the US. According to bitcointreasuries, Mara curreently has 5,263 worth only $300,057,928. It's 3.7B market cap is largely attribute to the future earnings from mining. For this reason, the price of bitcoin is the biggest factor for this company's price action.
There are a few setups for MARA. Price could either breakout from this channel or continue trading in this range. When Bitcoin gains momumtum in the coming months, the breakout scenrio is very possible. Also, keep an eye on the support level at 29.00 & 24.00/ These levels could be a great buying opportunity assuming that Bitcoin's price continues to go up.
RIOT - GETTING READY FOR A RALLYRIOT has been beaten down pretty bad and had a pullback as far as 33.30 area which was a -58% pullback! There's a major support at the 34.20 level which would've been a perfect entry but I think there's more room for this to move. We are also forming a ttm squeeze on the 4hr and it looks like it's setting up the same way it did when it had a pullback back in March 9th. It's hard to time a perfect entry but I think this is a good starter position in this level having that we've identified a good support level which can identify the risk and I've set targets for taking profit.
A couple catalyst to watch out for:
- April 28th-29th: Pres. Biden + Fed Chair. Powell speaking regarding the fed reserve policy as well as a follow up to the capital gain tax.
- May 17th: ER
Contract Suggestions:
RIOT 5/21 55C @ 1.57
or
RIOT 5/21 60C @ 1.07
Average down areas:
- $39 (gap fill area)
- $34 (major support)
Stop loss: Below 33.50
NASDAQ:RIOT
Opening: RIOT May 21st 25/30 Short Put Vertical... for a .91 credit.
Notes: With 30-day at 151% and the short put strike some $15 below where the underlying is currently trading camped out at the 12 delta strike, what could go wrong? With earnings in 24, will probably look to take it off before those ... .
My outlook now is neutralI've been following RIOT for a few months now. Initially it was moving hand in hand as BTC did, but it broke away from that and went off on its own. Its really just trading in a range now with some influence of what BTC is doing. One thing that I've noticed on this company compared to others is they put out very little info in the way of news. We only really see how many miners they've purchased and when they are being deployed. Not much other info. Sure I can understand with a company that only has a handful of employees they likely dont care very much about what people buying the stock think over what their day to day duties are. I think that is hurting them. Even MARA is putting news out or getting on video and discussing topics. It gives at least some legitimacy to their operation. Going forward it seems like the best move is to just trade the zones, long below $50 and start thinking about shorting when it gets to $60 or even just close your longs out and wait for the pullback.
Until this gets back above $67, I dont think we have much to work with in the way of upward value for the time being. MARA which was much lower than RIOT did actually catch up in price this week too. So both of these things are really only moving because hype vs actual value. You can of course trade either but it seems like the hype has backed off on this one.
Now if you are trading this for exposure to BTC until we of course get an ETF for it, you are better served by getting GBTC for buying shares or MSTR for shares/options. Keep in mind the options on MSTR are low volume and very wide bid/ask spreads, however extremely juicy premium if you like selling Theta.