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Bad news in the price? Buy the earnings break.SUFFERING LIKE ALL US RETAILERS Signet is a US mid cap with a leading position in mid-market jewelry retail. It has most recently been impacted negatively by the dull holiday season, and has generally paid the price of the weak US retail environment. EVERYTHING HAS A PRICE? The shares have been suffering, and are consequently trading at inexpensive multiples (discount to market and to its own long term valuation). Furthermore, management has been reshuffling the business and lowering expectations for next quarters. Fundamentally, the company continues to have an interesting growth profile on both the top and bottom line. The consensus of analysts has a BUY recommendation with a 41% target upside. TECHNICALLY BOTTOMING OUT? With quite high short interest (12.4% of free float, or >8 days of trading), any marginal good news could take the shares significantly higher. Furthermore, while the mid/long term technical picture still looks quite weak, it seems the stock has been trying to bottom out on the daily chart. WHAT TO DO WITH THE SHARES? Up levels: 77.18 / 80.00 / 84.25 / 84.75 / 86.00 /87.20 Down levels: 70.00 / 67.50 Target: 87.20 (+16.71%) Stop-loss 1: 70.00 (-6.3%) Stop-loss 2: 67.50 (-9.65%) Reward-Risk: 2.65x Strategy: Buy the shares IN HALF SIZE ahead of the earnings release on March 9.
NYSE:SIGLong
by HAL9000
DAX analysis/thoughts for the coming months march-juneAfter a major surge upwards while closing on the previous ATH, #DAX might be looking to start a major pullback to gather liquidity for a bigger move up for new ATHs. A lot of shorts getting stopped out every day and there are still no signs of retail going bullish. Because of that we might be looking at another stop run before institutionals start taking profit and we begin the downtrend with sell offs. As of now we still have no supply at the current levels 11900-12000 and could form one before heading down. My bias is short after closing all my previous longs but i am not shorting yet. (Check my previous idea to see when I went long for 400+ pips). We are looking for the reversal at weekly supply between 11390-11440. If that doesnt hold, we could be heading either 11200, or sub 11k.
FX:GER30Short
by FrankieTheBull
1
Amazon in the green, deserves earnings exposure.GREAT LONG-TERM TECHNICAL PICTURE, SOME RECENT WEAKNESS - Long term uptrend took us to historical high on October 6, 2016 - Gentle uptrend over the past 6 months with a breakout late Sept. - Some short term weakness since the top, but still in breakout mode SOLID, PRICEY FUNDAMENTALS - Continues to impress the investment community - 87.5% of consensus has a buy recommendation - Consensus target price $913/Share (+11.6%) - Justified by impressive long term EPS growth (+48.5%) - Improving profitability (ROE 13.64%) - Expensive stock (P/E 203.89x and P/BV 28.8x) EXCITING EARNINGS PUBLICATION HISTORY: VOLATILE - Over the past 13 quarters since mid-2013 - Measured the 5-day performance before and into earnings - Average stock performance during earnings week = +2.60% - Min -9.94% Max +20.00% TRADING STRATEGY: USE OPTIONS FOR EXPOSURE - Sell Nov 18'16 $750 put = +$9.33 - Buy Nov 18'16 $850 call = -$19.00 - Total cost = $9.67 (1.18%) - Best case: Continuation of breakout ==> Make money on both legs - Worst case: Stock falls post earnings and you become long a great story 8% below the current price.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by HAL9000
XRT Retail Earnings POTENTIALRetail earnings are in full swing this upcoming week! Here is a TA based version of my expectations for the week. In previous quarters the strong USD and the slow down in Consumer Spending hit profits hard. With retail sales up throughout the quarter and consumer confidence at 2016 high, all around beats are expected. Driving retail market capitalization back to Q2 2015 level offers a short-term 8% return. In the longer run, or collectively throughout the remainder of Q2, a 16% return is in the works.
AMEX:XRTLong
by TraderDanER
BBY BlockBuster Bust?HVF pattern developing. A macro perspective: short BBY long-term simply because of online retail dominance for tech products. I'm skeptical that brick and mortar retail will survive. BBY prior CEO placed a cost focus strategy that the new CEO has agreed and does not plan on changing. Cost focus strategies does not help with growth unless the company was operating inefficiently in the first place. Otherwise a cost cutting play is basically a survival strategy for concerns of a bad financial outlook/guidance. Cost focus helps companies to report better quarterly Income Statement. BBY still faces the same fundamental challenges as ODP, M, WMT, TGT, HGG, SHLD, and other retailers. Drop in BBY competition will not save them from enduring the same fate. Thus lower competition will not drive earnings or market shares of BBY up, or any other retailers for that matter - as some analyst have claimed. New products on the floor will not help either when information regarding the products can be found online, eliminating the need for a salesforce or marketing. However disadvantaged consumers might find BBY brick and mortar stores useful temporary. Also form a fundamentally aspect, although BBY is not showing Negative Income (not yet), Annual Cash Flow statements are already showing declines in operation. If this trend continues I expect more smart money exiting. The 10 yr weekly chart already indicates a declining trend from BBY all time high, and as the company scrambles to lean itself to changes in market landscape, remedies like capital injections and liquidity will not save BBY. Until I hear a dramatic change in competitive pricing or some kind of operational advantage similar to AMZN, I don't see BBY outlook getting better. BBY might be a BlockBuster Bust.
NYSE:BBYShort
by TraderMD
3