Retail
Just a little bit to the upside for #Retail before bullish break#stocks #trading $GPS $KORS $XRT #Investing
Retail ripping back higher XRTWe've seen a massive rip in retail with XRP in the last couple days.
Finally breaking out of this 6 month long Head and Shoulders bottoming pattern. Breaking out over that neckine of 42 was the buy signal. Overall, retail is still in a down trend, and that downward trendline from 2015 highs is our target as well as where we should face profit taking and resistance. It is also coincidentally the 200% measured move of the head and shoulders pattern. Those technical levels always work out despite what the nay sayers may tell you.
THE TRADE:
Long over 42 (head and shoulders neck line)
Target 45 (measured mvoe of head and shoulders)
Stop under 42
We want to be buying the dips on this rip until we reach our target.
Going long FL on WednesdayFL is printing a bullish hammer canldestick price bar near the 11/17 gap-up LOD on above average volume with my momentum/trending oscillators confirming the price move. I am going long FL Wednesday morning using a limit order (GTC-BUY-LMT) @ 40.45. I will have two trailing sell stops (GTC-SELL-STP) @ 38.66 and 38.25 to protect my initial invested capital in case FL does not move higher immediately. I am expecting the stock to move up and through its August and May resistance levels with a new 52-week high being the ultimate goal in the intermediate term.
#Retail still holding the gap-up, this is a positive sign ...#support/resistance overhead @ $44.31. $XLY $GES $KORS
ANF Entry - Significant Shifting at all time lowRecent events in the industry with sector support are spiking several stock in the retail fashion field, ANF is strategically placed in this time and buyers are showing their interest at all-time-low.
For me, there are enough signs to support the attempt to build a position in the stock.
*Already holding in the fashion sector at AEO which also spiked and moved nicely, linking the trade here.
#Ross Stores gaps higher following October 26, 2017 breakout ..Simple indicator/overlay strategy. $XRT #retail #ETF
#Retail gaps up towards 1st resistance. A break higher?..Easy support/resistance lines. Break above blue line likely = bull market. $GPS $KORS
JD updated long entry ~39.7
stop loss ~38.9
target ~42
potential gain of 5.8% or higher if you re-evaluate the chart later and adjust the stop loss accordingly
potential loss of ~2%
approx 3:1 risk reward ratio
take this with a grain of salt
A promising futureThis company sells high-quality products to women. Analysts believe the coming holiday shopping season will result in more sales than last year. I see JILL topping 11 in the near future, possibly with a dividend to investors.
RANGE breakout Been stalking this one for a while. We are close to a range break. Might need another day of rest but its close to a multi day move when it can break and close over.
$RADSTOCK SEEMS TO HAVE FORMED SAUCER PATTERN. PRICE HAS BEEN ON A NOSE DIVE SINCE THE START OF THE YEAR AND I HATE TO CALL TOPS/BOTTOMS BUT I LIKE THE STOCK TO RALLY SOON. TIGHT STOPS @ $2.05
PLCE Your BetTechnicals:
Stock jumped 12% following its last quarterly report, but gave up all those gains during the session and continued the descent over the next few weeks. Stock dipped below the 200 DMA, bounced off support at $95, and is now back above the 200 DMA. The overall up trend is still intact.
Fundamentals:
Stock fell about 9% last week on a press release that it was opening stores in southeast Asia. However, the company has a franchise model for its international stores and actually achieves higher gross margins in its international business, which accounts for about 12% of total sales. Hence, the international expansion should be seen as a positive and not a negative.
PLCE has zero debt and it is closing unprofitable stores, growing online sales and investing in inventory technology to improve margins. The company's buyback and dividends yield a 'cash' return of about 9.5%. With sales growth of 3.5%, that's a 13% return! Short interest is at 31% which suggests a potential for a short squeeze if its next quarterly report is positive once again. This is one of only a few retail apparel names that is actually doing well. Same store sales were up 4.9% in the most recent quarter.
Gymboree, a close competitor, just filed for bankruptcy protection amid declining sales comp. This speaks to Children's Place's out-performance.
Bottomline: Buy. I see the stock tracking back up to its previous highs. PT is $123.
Retailers and XRT are going to sell sharply on poor economicsI am very bearish on the United States economy. Retail data has been sliding lower and I expect that to get worse before ti gets better. Plus, on aggregate, one company seems to be taking all the business away from the rest. The others will collectively drag down the industry as more and more consumers switch to online shopping.
I am bearish on XRT and going short and have an extensive article on this .
Is Nike Starting a Bearish Motive Wave? Daily Chart Outlook $NKENike ($NKE) Daily: Nike after enjoying a HUGE run up to this point, appears to be finally catching up to the overall weakness in the retail industry. We can see from this daily chart, that it started to make a series of lower lows and lower highs after posting an all time high in price around December of 2015. The stock could have moved higher after this corrective move, at November of 2016, but instead, resumed another downturn, unable to yet again make higher highs than its previous peak. We can see here that it retraced back 50% of the initial corrective wave (Wave 2, in Green) and is continuing on downward. Now, this can be a large corrective wave, after which Nike can move higher, forming another bullish motive wave, or this can be a start of a multi-year trend reversal and start of a bearish cycle for the company. Key level at this point would be $49, and breaking below would mean the stock has indeed posted yet another lower low, and expected to resume a move lower at that point. As always, keep eye in the RSI and MACD for direction and strengh of price movements.
AMZN, leading the way (while catching up?) to e-commerceIt's hard to say that Amazon has never been a leading indicator of e-commerce growth as this chart might suggest, but it will be interesting to watch how the relationship develops as AMZN charges ahead. On one hand, Amazon continues to diversify outside of e-commerce (ironically dipping its toes into brick-and-mortar while single-handedly destroying the model). Yet this pair is inextricably linked, as for the time being one cannot survive without the other. Correlations remain high and the runway for e-commerce is long.
Short-Term Upside For Retail?The SPDR fund tracking S&P Retail has been trending up for years. Lately the industry and fund have been on some rocky footing. Currently the fund is at a potential key support level with value to the upside. The projected future movements are highlighted below based on technical indicators.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 36.0704. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The RSI has established two upward trending levels of support. Currently the RSI just bounced off of one of these lines. The last three times this occurred since this RSI support trend began resulted in quick gains of 5.36%, 7.83%, and 9.60%. This is the first indicator this fund could turn bullish.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 4.0070. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI has also been trending up since the beginning of 2016. Although the current TSI level is not near this supporting trendline, the delay in the indicator could be the reason. It is important to note the TSI has come down from its most recent peak and its current position normally occurs as the fund is sliding downward. This indicator may be telling us the downward movement may continue for a little bit longer before the fund progresses upward.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.6967 and the negative is at 1.1494. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Even though both indicators are unfavorable to bullish movement, they have both begun to reverse course. This reversal does require more movement to favor new bullish movement for the fund. If this movement occurs within the next 3 days, the fund should begin moving upward.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 4.0425 and D value is 11.0491. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. This indicator is clearly in oversold territory. Previous oversold levels for this indicator during the fund's upward trend have always lead to a reversal. This is another strong indicator the fund will move upward.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the upside, although definitive upward movement may take a few more days to develop. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the fund could gain at least 4% over the next 27 trading days if not sooner.
Macys (M) might be a long, volatility is tellingFirst off, RISKY. Secondly, obviously in a downwards spiral. But it seems that earnings seem to be overstated (and the time in between). So this begs the question. Will this go up before earnings or on earnings? Id think yes. So I might be looking to open an order up after I check the right trade to get into. it MUST be a small position. Because this is obviously going down in the long run. BUT missing earnings doesn't seem to be the factor that decides if this gains or loses. (luckily) Check 11/10/16 missed earnings for any proof.
GBPUSD Pound Hits 7-Month High on Strong UK Retail Sales DataIn the UK, there was good news on the consumer front, as retailers reported a sharp increase in sales volume. With Brexit constantly in the minds of the markets, consumer spending indicators are being closely monitored. The British economy has performed better than many analysts (and the BoE) expected, but the markets are understandably nervous about the impact that Brexit will have on the economy, given the fact that the EU is Britain’s largest trading partner. On Friday, the economy will get a report card in the form of Preliminary GDP, and traders should treat this event as a market-mover.
Talks over Britain’s departure from the EU are expected to be lengthy and difficult, and EU leaders don’t appear to be in a generous mood, as they met in Brussels this week to discuss a united front in the Brexit talks. Britain wants any deal to include financial services, but the Europeans are working on a draft that would exclude the financial sector unless it is governed by EU rules.
Long-term view on TGT- Weekly ChartTarget has really taken a beating lately, primarily due to them losing market share to the mammoth Amazon. With the most resent earnings, TGT has broken down below what had been downward sloping support. My expectation is we will have a slight sell off early this week (week of 4/3/2017) but will ultimately retest the line that had been support, but will now be resistance, which should occur around TGT $61.50 area. In my view, TGT will then trade sideways/down and eventually break-down with speed to ultimately hit $43.60's area, or the 1.414 fib level. The timing lines up with my view of the overall market and also is a point where TGT will be hitting long-term support. Not a huge fan of retailers dwindling in market share but if this does occur, it may set up for a nice buy given their decent dividend and at that price it would be considered cheap. In summary, in my view, you can buy now for the short-term bounce to $61 but you don't want to be holding this stock once it reaches that level!! Wait to buy Early/Mid 2018.
