Retail
Walmart Bullish, Consolidating for a bit then towards $130Walmart is going to be consolidating for a bit around the support that its been hitting
but overall Walmart is going upwards, it keeps making higher highs without breaking support
easily looks like along for Walmart around the 120.92 support
Once the MACD creates a new lighter red candle (bear candle) we can expect an increase of around $8 dollars towards the upside which would bring the price of Walmart somewhere along the lines of $130
overall long on walmart especially during recessions, expect same results from dollar stores
Welp. USO got permabanned from trading Oil.Extremely popular ETF among retail investors United States Oil Fund got banned from trading Oil. Less than 1 month after a 1 to 8 reverse split.
The number of holders on Robinhood, a popular broker among retail investors, has been going up despite all the negative news.
Actually it has been going up more the more negative news there have been.
How to write about this without looking sarcastic or making it look like a parody? I assure you all I am writting is true.
With Oil prices crashing the ETF saw about 2 months ago a massive influx of investors and hit their limit.
They have responded (after losing alot of their investors money and getting limited by the CME & regulators) by spreading their positions over several months.
On April 29th they did a, 8 to 1 reverse split to not get delisted. The price has kept going up since then, perhaps because of all the investors with less than 8 shares that bought back in.
According to a Thursday SEC filing made by the ETF, RBC Capital Markets, their broker, has informed the fund running USO that they could no longer buy oil futures and not even hold oil positions. USO response has been to say they may hold larger amounts of cash & cash equivalents and treasuries (zero or even negative yielding US treasuries).
RBC reason is speaking in layman terms to not end up like Lehman Brothers.
Despite being down 75% YTD USO AUM have quadrupled (and would have done more than this had they not hit the limit).
ycharts.com
RobinTrack data shows that the number of accounts holding USO has soared by about 2000% since March.
So... if they are at the limit, they money they lose can be replenished by new buyers and they can remain at the upper limit forever? (As long as new buyers join).
They might have to redesign their offer, since they cannot hold oil anymore. I guess they're just going to hold "investors" money in cash & bonds while collecting fees.
Let's see what the regulators say. People wanted to buy Oil but we all know they just want to buy something deep in the red and even if the ETF changes they are not going to sell because they enjoy holding losers. They might even be interested to buy more. Seriously. The keyword is "emotional" but better than this would be "irrational" and even better - I have to - is my own description "complete morons".
Of course technical analysts do not need to read the news and knew all of this before it even happened thanks to their magical little oscillators and tools.
Retail investors are unphased and ignoring this "FUD". I expect them to buy more, probably expecting an investment in their own money at a fee to magically go up.
When I'm doing my research I'm angry and ranting half of the time but also I'm just laughing in front of my screen half of the time. I love my 'job'.
DSKY - short trend & level retestDSKY - good idea for long:
1. Retest of previous short trend (weekly timeframe)
2. Alltime level retest (weekly timeframe)
3. Break of current short trend (hour timeframe)
Profit / risk:
- take at 101 at 50% Fibonacci level (18.6%)
- stop at 82.9 below previous candles shadows (2.6%)
HOME - could be a good money makerTake a look at the chart, We got to gaps to fill and HOME is opening there store next week.
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AKA - Market Madness
Still think USO is a great way to invest in Oil?An Interactive Broker trader with a $77,000 account thought he would outsmart every institution and every big Oil trader, the result? A $9 million loss.
Well done.
IB normally doesn't take beginners, you need 2 years experience to trade FX with them (haven't checked futures so I don't know what the rule is for those), and the min account size is 10,000.
This day trader (go figure) thought he was smarter than every one, and he went all in, he bet the farm. This alone is stupid, but he went all in without doing his research!
Probably a "technical analyst". Weird, I thought magical esoteric TA told you everything you need to know, that everything was built in the chart and info not in the chart was useless noise. Didn't his magical TA tools tell him it would go negative? Well actually if he looked at the ATR / implied volatility he would have seen....
Even I, that has negative balance protection and guaranteed stops, went on the CME site to check announcements.
They don't exactly talk about negative prices nor clearly about limit up limit down, but here, with Oil massive volatility, they did confirm that yes indeed they were prepared for negative prices.
Thomas Peterffy (the hungarian market billionaire that is not George Soros) said 5 days wasn't enough for IB to update their platform and that's obviously true.
Now maybe they should have warned people with messages on the interface, e-mails, maybe set some hard limit to what their clients can do.
Maybe they should have had code ready at all time in case this happens. Maybe they share the fault, maybe not.
But anyway, being a customer friendly broker, they absorbed losses over 100 million.
Meanwhile I did my research, I shorted June contract and made money, and I'm fighting with my shady broker to withdraw some of my gains...
They have been condemned by the french regulators years ago for shady business practices go figure, but every retail broker has!
And the vast majority of their clients are retail. I'm waiting and waiting and waiting... I have resisted insulting them or calling the regulator for now.
The only other broker to give me a hard time was Kraken. They mention anti laundering laws and more, and I understand, but why be so unclear, and ask for documents 5 times rather than all at once, and why ask for the same documents several time, and why be so difficult, only when someone made money?
Short Bitcoin on Kraken which was clearly very pro bull, short Oil on *** which had a massive number of retail short sellers (they were on the June contract thought), and then it's an issue. Never had a single problem buying Bitcoin and sending it to a wallet, never a problem when losing money, extreme ease to deposit and start paying commissions, without any warning "getting it out will be very hard". "It's quick instant easy" ye sure, no it's not.
The fund running USO clearly said it was a tool for short term bets. It's not made for massive hoardes of dumb money to buy and hold.
They have spread over several months to be more nimble, ye looks like its working great!
I heard reverse splits were a good sign, that it was smart to invest in a stock after it made a reverse split.
Once again, retail that never in their lives made money consistently, thought they knew better than every one else, and that they would get rich quick.
Once again, I warned people with what little visibility I had.
Once again I was right and retail is getting wiped out.
Bagholders are going to argue, they are going to say "just wait", and any spike up will be their celebration and "told you so" "this is it".
Same old story. They'll keep arguing, they'll keep bagholding, they'll keep losing.
Dumb money at its finest: never understand when you lost. You can never tell them "told you so" because in their mind it's always just a matter of time.
When it gets delisted they'll have no choice but to understand they lost, and still then they'll go full lawsuit and dream of getting their money back.
How long for this? 5 years? 10 years? Apple Sapphire screen bagholders as I posted recently have gotten like 4% of their money back on average.
An average smart (average of the ones in the top) investor or speculator in 10 years will be up 15% compounded, so +300% (turn the total into 400%), and dumb bagholders that wanted to get rich quick "15% a year looool that's pathetic" will be spending their time in courts and dreaming of getting 4% back (turn the total into 4%).
Delusion at its finest. There is no free lunch...
If Oil was priced at $0.01 there was a very good reason for it.
Oil traders weren't just selling at this price because "emotions" "rsi very oversold".
It's so risible that some complete noobs that don't understand anything they are doing thought they are just so much smarter than the market, and that whales were just "being emotional" and selling a barrel of Oil at $5, $3, etc just because they were "scaaaaared".
Homer Simpson really thought "Aha! Whales are selling Oil at $1 a barrel but they are scared. I, Homer J Simpson, know something they don't! Oil is worth more. I am a visionary!"
It's like when Homer went hunting for a Turkey, he just put a nice plate down with rice and other food in, then shouted "Come on Turkey come join your friends" and pointed the gun towards the plate with a big smile on his face, fully convinced a Turkey would jump in his plate.
I thought the Simpsons were ridiculous and overly exagerated when I was a kid. How wrong I was.
My broker lets me set an order to short USO. Oh my, I sure know what I'm going to do! 2 possibilities actually.
The Difference Between Stupidity and Genius Is That Genius Has Its Limits.
$W can rise in the next daysContextual immersion trading strategy idea.
Wayfair Inc. engages in the e-commerce business in the United States, Europe, and internationally.
The share price rose after good earnings. I see some preconditions the share price will continue growing.
The demand for shares of the company looks higher than the supply.
These and other conditions can cause a rise in the share price in the next days.
So I opened a long position from $181,7;
stop-loss — $163,18.
Information about take-profits will be later.
Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision.
Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust.
You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy.
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Thanks for being with me!
Wish I Discovered this Earlier: FHRC $23 ShortFirst off, please don't take this seriously or as financial advice. As always, this is on opinion based basis. That being said, let me get into a few of my insights. Right now, FHRC is doing quite well as a retail brokerage following a bullish run from what I believe to be a bearish price correction due to the period we are in. This is remarkable given other stocks retail related aren't doing as well. Overall, FHRC had a strong and stable price correlation in the market since IPO. I believe a $23 short target is quite reasonable extremely soon.
Online Retail. V-Shaped recoveryIt is rare to see a real V-shaped recovery, IBUY will most likely test previous all-time-high.
$54 to $56.5 is an important range. To see it more clearly, just zoom out, or use a weekly chart.
OBV has been indicative... as we cross above or below the 200sma, we can see OBV start a trend, either down or up, in conjunction with the 200sma. After our most recent cross above the 200sma, OBV is reaching 1-year high.
Watching closely for a new breakout, which will possibly be followed by a re-test the previous highs.
IBUY top-10 portfolio holdings with weight %:
CHWY (4.89%)
STMP (4.79%)
NFLX (4.01%)
PETS (3.83%)
PTON (3.56%)
GRUB (3.48%)
AMZN (3.35%)
CHGG (3.21%)
UBER (3.20%)
FLWS (3.11%)
Smile Direct Club (Nasdaq: SDC) Technical Analysis Possible cup and handle pattern forming here. Major support ($6.18), Major resistance ($7.76) and break above (8.00) psychological resistance for retracement to gap fill territory ($9.20).
Walmart Day Chart, Gap Fill 5/1/2020Looking at Walmarts chart it seems like it is infamous for filling gaps made pretty quickly
last gap made was around the 127.33 price which i think will get filled tomorrow on 5/1/2020 to start the month our in green
but it seems like whenever gaps are filled they are taken right back so maybe set a TP for the 127 price range
also MACD on average makes around 3-4 bearish candles on the day chart before it makes a lighter red and smaller bearish candle
it seems like we are headed in that route especially after Walmart's huge sell off recently
i think walmart is one of the stronger retail business' (if not the strongest) during a recession or during hard times
there is no reason for the huge sell off, it will be back at ATHs in the next two weeks and hitting 127 either tomorrow or Monday
Red alert: Idiots are selling! [Entertainment & lesson]We have a code red. I repeat, we have a code red.
I can barely breathe! 🤣
I'm crying
After USO had their reverse split, the price gapped up.
You can check it on robintrack, first there was a strong decline which might be all the people so wiped out they could only afford <8 shares (LOL), but then even after this it keeps going down!
robintrack.net
It only went up before you can check for yourself. Since february they have only kept buying, the number of holders line never went down even for a day no matter what.
And now even after the initial drop that might be explained for other reasons number of holders went down by ~7%
There is only 1 explanation: These masterminds thought the price really went up, and they outsmarted institutions, and have locked up profit 😆
Now I don't know if Robinhood had an erronous display, or if they only show the gains since the split maybe (so investors saw green and thought they got their money back), perhaps some are doing "automated trading"?
All I know is the price rallied up because of a reverse split and a group of people known to be stupid and have been strictly buying for 2 months without even 1 day of pause, have started selling.
These can't be humans... They must be... something else...
Hey so if a really solid company made a 1 > 10 split all the animals would be aggressively buying thinking the price dropped 90%?
Making money in markets isn't that hard if you take it seriously, just look what kind of absolute imbeciles we are playing against!
$M Macy's looks to have a slight down trend before bull marketRSI divergence is our main sell signal here. There's also some fractal support/resistance here.
Will be re-entering $M @ 5.20.
REMEMBER
Risk Management 50% of trading
Technical analysis 25% of trading
Fundamentals 25% of trading
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Best of luck to everyone!
Retail breaking outOn the news we could see some re-openings of the economy in certain states.
Retail is breaking out of a 2-week consolidation channel; after a double bottom April 3rd.
RSI @60, is in an uptrend. (Bull)
OBV is still consolidating (Bear)
We are testing the 50% fibonacci retracement line at $36.5 (closing price will be important)
Buy TargetTarget Corporation (NYSE: TGT)
Target Corporation is a well known discount store that been around over 100 and went public around 1967.
JesusTrade Score:
Buy
Scale Score
Risky (7/10)
Portfolio Hold:
Monthly Swing
Fundamental Reasoning:
With earning around the corner, their numbers need to be payed attention (up the trade score due to earning being need). Year over year, store sales are up 20% and online sales up 200% April 2019 compare to April 2020, Target store sales are up 5% and Online sales up 4%. With rumor of recession around the corner and COVID-19 still active. This should be a good pick up.
TJX: Brick and Mortar Merchant Hits ResistanceIt’s no secret that social distancing is bad for retailers. But one name in the space has held up better than most and may now be at risk of a move lower: TJX .
TJX, the parent of Marshall’s and TJX Maxx, had a strong bounce between mid-March and April 9. But since then it’s run into a wall of selling at $50. That’s the same level where it bottomed last May and August. Old support is new resistance. Not bullish.
The entire rally of late may now be turning into a bear flag that’s at risk of breaking.
Momentum is also showing signs of weakness as MACD nears a bearish cross and the 8-day exponential moving average turns lower.
It could also make sense fundamentally because TJX relies heavily on physical stores rather than e-commerce. The word “digital” didn’t appear anywhere in its last earnings report.
However, management did say “Customer traffic was the primary driver of the comp store sales increase.” That was great in the pre-Covid world, but what about now?
Earnings are estimated for May 18.