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Recession

Daily and Weekly Rejection. 200 Billion Calls and market flat.Daily and Weekly Rejection. 200 Billion Calls of worth and market flat. The US bought 200 billion worth of options is 200 billion of stocks to sell to get the market flat. Lower highs and weekly and daily rejections on Friday. see the market getting its recession on Monday, Delta in options across the board was at yearly highs. DAX rallied with EU meeting. But didn't make a new high. Created a lower high and volume didn't make a new high on Friday. Many facts to see the market as topped out. Options data with market analysis. See the market crash by about 50-70%. Because of the deflation cycle coming, we need. The dollar needs to come back up and inflation needs to hit negative numbers to have expansion room for the future. Best Regards Robin,
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by PivotX
ES: Recession/Depression 2023ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 THE END IS NEAR.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by PivotX
1
#Bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSD Are We There Yet? A Year LaterThe question on everyone's lips, are we there yet? Is the #BearMarket bottom in? Almost 1 year ago to the day I shared my Bitcoin bottoms up idea: Which used Ben Cowen's risk indicator to indicate the bottom or top of the Bitcoin market waves. The theory for using this indicator is as follows: 1. Bottoms must be below 0.20 2. Tops must be over 0.85 3. Anything below 0.60 but over 0.20 is accumulation As you can see the indicator called the following tops and bottoms: 2011 Bear Market Bottom 2013 Bull Market Top 2015 Bear Market Bottom 2017 Bull Market Top 2018 Bear Market Bottom 2020 Covid-19 Crash Bottom (Black Swan Event) 2021 Bull Market Top That means that this theory of use for the indicator has correctly identified every significant bottom or top since 2011 apart from the November 2021 blow off. While the November 2021 blow off top is not completely insignificant many do not count this as the top from a technical point of view and there are a host of valid reasons for that. If we take a look to the present day we can see that between the end of June and October 2022 the indicator dropped below 0.20, which begs the question, was that the bottom? I have marked 14th November 2022 as the possible bottom and there are strong indications that this is the case. However, what we must remember is the wider picture and the likely recession that is incoming (Bitcoin has never experienced a recession so will be unprecedented times). I therefore believe we will see an accumulation phase, without breaking above the 0.60 level before returning back down for one final plummet to put in a further low (in much the same way we put in a higher high after the top was called in late 2021). For me the sensible play is to allow the time to pass more before entering the market, as mentioned these are unprecedented times, with the Ukraine/Russia war and looming recession. The risk of further lows is far higher than the possible risk of not catching the exact bottom price in my opinion. Having said that if you did enter around 15.5, and I know some who did, you cannot say it was a bad move at all. Let me know what you think
BNC:BLX
by jamesdbarnard
2023 Crisis In my own eyes THIS IS JUST A THOUGHT OF SOMEONE WHO LOOKS AT THE MARKET FROM A BEAR POINT OF VIEW- NO ADVISE Publishing here the history of economics effect on stock market I took the last couple of crisis (bubble at 2000 and the real estate crisis on 2008) and added the bellow charts - Inflation - Interest - Unemployment Once thing is clear- each time inflation went up- The fed increased the intersect rate and unemployment went down to the lowest points of the decade or more - When unemployment reached the bottom, we were getting towards the top of the market (on 2008) or in the middle of the fall down (2001) - UNEMPLOYMENT RATE NEVER REACHED THE BOTTOM WHEN THE CRISIS WAS OVER OR DURRNING THE UPTREND ON THE ABOVE CRISIS -When Inflation rates got to the pick level - the market was either still climing or in the begining of the fall - INFLATION RATES NEVER PICKED OR STAYED HIGH FOR A LONG TIME WHILE THE MARKET BOTTOMED - THE PRIOD OF AT LEAAST 7 MONTHS WE HAD THE HIGH INTRESET RATE AT THEIR PICK - AND IT HAPPENED WHILE THE MARKETS WERE CRASHING THE SIGANL FOR THE BOTTOM USUALLY CAME WHEN THE INFALTION CAME TO IT'S LOWEST POINT - DRAMATIC MOVES OF THE INFLATION GOING DOWN - WERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CRASH AND TOWARDS THE END WHEN WE HIT THE BOTTOM - Were are we now 4-2023??? In My Opinion: - We are in the beginning of the big crash, we are going to sink hard to new low level, we will visit the highest levels of the market before the CORONA (February 2020) - I really think we will have a hard recession which will take 5-7 years or more to get back to the tops of the ETFs (QQQ/ SPY etc...) We are being fouled at the moment the the bottom already happened, as nothing is shiny in the near/ far furture - AAPL IS ONLY 9% FROM IT'S ATH (MAKE SENCE??) not to me - VIX IN ITS LOWEST FOR THE PAST 1+ YEAR (USUALLY THE MARKET WILL PUT ALL TO SLEEP BEFORE THEY DROP THE KNIFES) - LAYOFF SEASON HAS BEGAN AT THE BIG COMANIES - FED DECLEARED A SOFT RECESSION (WHEN THEY SAY SOFT IT'S THE SAME AS WHEN THEY SAID TRANSITORY INFLATION - PLEASE REMEMBER !!! - INTRESET RATE?? NEXT 0.25 IS COMING IN 2 WEEKS - WHAT IS THE CATALIST FOR THE MARKET TO GO HIGH?? NOTHING (In My Opinion) THIS IS JUST A THOUGHT OF SOMEONE WHO LOOKS AT THE MARKET FROM A BEAR POINT OF VIEW- NO ADVISE
NASDAQ:IXICLong
by AstockMaster
1
Insane S&P 500 Futures ChartThis is a weekly chart of the difference between the front month contract and the next contract in front for S&P 500 Futures. (Don't worry, you don't need to understand this lingo to understand this post, but if you'd like more information about what front month contract and next contract in front mean, I added links at the bottom of this post. To put it simply, this chart allows us to extrapolate what the market is currently pricing in for the future). With that said, you may look at this chart and think it looks like just noise. You'd be right: it does look like noise, literally. Below is a diagram of actual sound waves. These sound waves are from a human voice. The sound waves of a human voice always encode a message. Likewise, this futures chart has encoded an insane message... To decode the message in this chart, let's first overlay a moving average. It doesn't matter too much which moving average you select, but I like to use the 20-period moving average because it's usually considered the mean for a given timeframe, and is the basis for the Bollinger bands. It will help us get rid of the extreme noise oscillations and allow us to just analyze the underlying price action. Below is a chart of the 20-week MA applied to the chart. It's hard to see the moving average, so let's now hide the noise and only show the moving average. The chart is much cleaner and looks a lot different. Does it look familiar at all? If we add the Fed Funds Rate it will... As you can now see, it appears that this S&P 500 futures chart is a leading indicator of the Fed Funds rate. However, we cannot go by looks alone and we should validate this hypothesis. We can do this by calculating correlation values. See the below chart. It appears that the correlation values (R, R-Squared and P values) generally seem to validate the conclusion that this S&P 500 futures chart is a leading indicator for the Fed Funds rate. Now here's where things get pretty insane... We can use this chart to extrapolate how high the Fed Funds rate may go. To get a refined look, we need to use a smaller moving average. Smaller moving averages can give us a more refined picture. To do this, I will drop the moving average down to the 5-week MA. Here's what that chart looks like... Look how high the 5-week MA is right now. Since June, it has exceeded the highs we saw in 2007, before the Great Recession when the Fed Funds rate was 5.25%. Right now the S&P 500 Futures chart appears to be pricing in a Fed Funds Rate of about 6%. That's considerably higher than the 3.5% terminal rate currently predicted by the Fed. With this said, the Fed is a free agent. It is not bound to hike to the level that the S&P 500 futures, as evidenced by this chart, may be pricing in. However, there's a cost to staying behind the curve: If the Fed fails to hike enough, inflation can spiral out of control with the expectations of further inflation amplifying the upward spiral. Companies raise prices in anticipation of higher inflation, workers demand higher and higher wages and the cycle begins to spiral out of control. Whereas, if the Fed continues to hike more and more aggressively to fight inflation at all costs, despite inflationary pressures being supply-related and not just demand-related, then it will destroy the flow of credit, and force massive deleveraging. Regardless of which path the Fed chooses, a major economic downturn is virtually unavoidable. Here are some references about futures contracts, for those who would like to read more: www.tradingview.com www.investopedia.com
CME_MINI:ES2!
by SpyMasterTrades
143
Reasons and Effects of RecessionHi everyone, Today, I am here with informative content. Let me start by saying that it will be a bit long, but let's learn what "Recession" means in detail. 🚩Recession can be defined as an economic downturn period. It is generally characterized by a decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) of a country in one or more quarters. Recession is associated with a series of economic indicators, such as rising unemployment rates, a decrease in consumer spending, and a general slowdown in economic activity. 🚩Recessions usually occur as part of the economic cycle and move with periods of economic growth. Some recessions may be shorter and less severe, while others may be longer and more severe. Recessions are generally attempted to be alleviated through economic incentives such as monetary policy, tax cuts, or increases in government spending. 🚩During a period when the economy slows down in general, financial markets are also affected. Recessions affect the prices of assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities. Below are some examples of how recessions affect money markets: 🏳️Stocks: Stock prices usually decline during recession periods. Since the profitability of businesses decreases, investors tend to sell stocks as they expect a decrease in the company's future earnings potential. Therefore, during recession periods, there are often declines in stock markets. 🏳️Bonds: During recession periods, bonds usually have more demand. This may be due to investors turning to a safer investment. Bond interest rates may decline, and some investors may turn to safer but lower-yielding bonds from higher-risk assets. 🏳️Gold and other commodities: Gold and other commodities usually have demand during recession periods. This may be due to investors looking for a safer haven. Gold is a widely used "safe haven" asset worldwide, and its price usually rises during recession periods. 🏳️Currencies: Exchange rates between currencies can also change during recession periods. For example, currencies of countries with slowing economies usually decline, while currencies of countries with stronger economies usually become more valuable. 🚩The 2008 global financial crisis was triggered by a collapse that began in the US mortgage market. This collapse started when mortgage lenders turned high-risk mortgage loans into high-risk debts by commercializing them. Mortgage debts were then packaged with various debt instruments and sold in financial markets by investment banks. The collapse of debt instruments resulted in unpaid mortgage debts, a decline in house prices, and more homeowners facing financial difficulties. This situation turned into a mortgage crisis that began in 2007 and lasted until the middle of 2008. 🚩FED made several statements in the early 2008 indicating that there was a "mild recession" in the US economy. However, the FED failed to take necessary precautions for the collapse of the mortgage market to turn into a crisis. One reason why FED could not take necessary precautions for the collapse of the mortgage market to turn into a crisis was due to the loose regulations of financial institutions in the US and permission to finance risky debts with high leverage. Therefore, the statements made by FED in early 2008 could have been made to maintain market confidence. 🚩However, towards the end of 2008, the mortgage crisis deepened and turned into a global financial crisis, which resulted in many financial institutions going bankrupt, unemployment rates rising, and a significant decline in the world economy. As a result, the statements made by FED in 2008 were based on the assumption that the mortgage crisis would result in a less severe recession. However, this assumption did not come true, and the mortgage crisis turned into a global financial crisis. These events have shown that regulatory institutions need to closely monitor risks in financial markets and complexity in debt instruments. Similarities and Differences: 🚩We can say the following about the similarities and differences between the 2008 global financial crisis and a potential crisis: Similarities: • Both the 2008 crisis and a potential crisis could begin with a collapse in financial markets. • Both crises can affect many economic sectors and countries. • Crises usually cause a decline in economic activity and a rise in unemployment rates. • Both crises may require central banks to intervene through monetary policies by lowering interest rates. Differences: • The 2008 crisis began with the collapse of high-risk loans in the mortgage market. The start of a potential crisis may depend on a different cause or event. • The 2008 crisis resulted in the bankruptcy of many financial institutions. In a potential crisis, the situation of financial institutions or the structure of financial instruments may be different. • The 2008 crisis turned into a global financial crisis. The magnitude of a potential crisis will depend on how widespread the crisis is, which sectors are affected, and whether the crisis has a global impact. • In a potential crisis, countries' economic structures and policies before the crisis may have a different impact on the severity and duration of the crisis. 🚩In conclusion, any economic crisis cannot be predicted in advance, and we cannot know its definite results beforehand. However, by looking at the causes and consequences of past crises, we can say that uncertainty and fluctuations in financial markets and economic activity are significant during crisis periods. Possible Impact on Cryptocurrencies: 🚩Predicting the impact of a potential recession on cryptocurrency assets and Bitcoin is a difficult issue. However, in case of uncertainty in financial markets and investors avoiding risky assets, it is possible for cryptocurrencies to lose value. On the other hand, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may act as a safe haven asset, especially in times of economic turmoil, and may increase in value. Differences Between Technical Recession and Real Recession 🚩Technical recession is a situation where the economy has a declining growth rate for a certain period (usually a quarter or more). In this case, a country's economy shows a decline for two consecutive quarters. Technical recession is generally considered an indicator of an economic downturn period. 🚩Real recession, on the other hand, is an economic downturn period where economic indicators such as rising unemployment rates and decreasing consumer spending sharply decrease. One of the most important determinants of a real recession is the unemployment rate in an economy. When unemployment rates rise in an economy, the purchasing power of the unemployed people decreases, and as a result, consumer spending declines. 🚩The difference between the two terms is that technical recession only refers to a two-quarter economic downturn period, while real recession refers to more extended, usually more severe, and more serious economic problems such as an increase in unemployment. Let's Take a Look at the 2001 and 2008 Crises 🚩In the past, the US economy entered a technical recession several times, but also experienced real recessions. For example, in 2001, the US economy shrank for two quarters, and technically, a recession occurred. However, the main reason for this economic downturn was the burst of the high-tech bubble. Therefore, the contraction in the economy was only caused by a temporary factor, and there was no significant change in other economic indicators. 🚩However, after the 2008 financial crisis, the US economy went through a more severe recession. This crisis was caused by subprime mortgages and other risky financial instruments. The crisis led to significant losses in financial markets and the bankruptcy of major banks. As a result, economic growth slowed down, unemployment rates increased, and consumer spending declined. This situation was evaluated as a real recession, and the US economy struggled to recover for a long time. 🚩The Fed has taken various steps to address technical and real recessions in the US economy by regulating interest rates and using monetary policy tools. For example, after the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed reduced interest rates to zero and tried to support financial markets using monetary policy tools. These steps helped the economy to recover, and the US economy started to grow again. If you've read this far, you probably liked this content. Don't forget to use the like button, and if you feel like it, you can even leave a comment. Moreover, sharing knowledge is powerful, so you can share this content with your friends who you want to strengthen. Goodbye. 👋🏻👋🏻👋🏻
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by Bullfighterr
6
#SPX500 8.5 YEAR EXPANDING FLATThe market moves in waves and patterns. This is a macro expanding flat on the #SPX500 that corrected for 8.5 years! During the A and C wave of the expanding flat, there were so called "recessions", the 2002 and 2008 recessions. Or were they just A and C waves of a macro expanding flat? It is interesting how the patterns a chart makes predicts the future of reality on a macro level. The rules for an expanding flat is that the top of the B wave pops above the top of the preceding impulse and the bottom of the C wave pops below the low of the A wave. It is at that moment you can start to look for buys for an expanding flat and hold on to an extension of the impulse!
FX:SPX500
by optimizedtrading
1
Major Recession on the Basis of Yield CurveThe US Treasury Yield Curve is currently inverted, meaning short term interest rates higher than long term interest rates. This unusual occurrence, called a yield curve inversion, has historically been a very reliable indicator of an upcoming economic recession. Since World War II every yield curve inversion has been followed by a recession in the following 6-18 months, and recessions are naturally correlated with decreased stock market returns. The yield curve has not been this lowin over 40 years. The yield curve indicator is always followed by a major drop. Triggering of the yield curve indicator also (ALWAYS) lags the yield curve inversion. In other words, the yield curve inversion must return positive before the indicator triggers. This is due to the lagging effects of interests rates on the economy. That being said, since the yield curve is currently severely low, we can expect (another) yield curve indicator to be triggered later. Once it is triggered, I expect a long-term decline of the markets. Based on historical data, the decline will last several months, if not years. Best of luck (not financial advice).
TVC:SPXShort
by CuzinSam
NAS100 | RECESSION |DECRYPTERSHi Welcome to Team Decrypters The Chart Aligns completely with "FAMOUS Wall street cheat sheet" What Features coincides with charts ?? 1-It give a proper DIP 2-A HUGE MULTI Y ear Rally 3 -Covid Crash Dip 4-Top Blow 5- Creating low and than Lower LOW 6-Multi months consolidations ( with in a continuation Pattern) Lastly , Using Pure Technical niche we get Target :- "HEIGHT of Flag" = "Target of Flag" Surprisingly That Target is Exactly on the top of COVID PEAK Which further Aligns with FED PRINTING OF MONEY , So FED need to Fill that GAP For example:- if you input 100kW of Energy and The out put will be Same 100KW ( in Other form) The printed Money should Be Reversed in Same Way Fundamental Reason :- We think if Recession comes which will make $$$$ TO RALLY ABOUT 8% -12 % Fed Agree with recession Also they need Strong $$ to crush economy , making consumer confidence Down and thus making consumer spending Down as well "CAUSING STOCK MARKET CRASH " NOTE :- THIS MULTI MONTHS PLAN ONLY USED BE USED AS A "QUARTERLY BIAS"
NShort
by DECRYPTERS
S&P EMAs at Historical Critical PointCME_MINI:ES1! So I opened the chart at the weekend and flicked through the time frames and upon punching the Weekly I noticed the 21EMA and the 89EMAs were pretty tight. I decided the rest of the morning looking through the historical relationship of these two EMAs. It turns out that each time the 21EMA has come down to the 89EMA, there has been a violent reaction. In general, when there are moderate to minimal macros effecting the markets, this reaction represents a strong opportunity to long. In fact, the 21EMA has never dipped below the 89EMA and recovered until months to years later. On the flip side, on the two occasions the 21EMA did dip below the 89EMA, was in 2001 and 2008...two very significant moments in market history. I also noted that once the break happens the S&P tends to bottom at around 40%-50% of that breaking point. If we were to use today's valuation, a 45% drop from today is around 2200. That is also the bottom of the COVID crash i.e. where the real market was going to be trading before infinite stimulus was provided by the Fed. I found this interesting as it seems in these troubling times and with a 'nuclear winter' around the corner in Europe, there is a real macro concern for markets. I'm leaning bearish and I think this rally will fail like every rally this year and lead the 21EMA below the 89EMA. Obviously, I react to the chart and should there be a strong reaction off the touch upwards, I will be flipping bullish.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Zeahl_Capital
2
Rhyming Recessions The old saying goes that history may not repeat but sure can rhyme. The talks and fear of recession looms and many of its effects can already be seen in the markets and greater economic world. These charts compare the leading events to the last great recession in 2008. Both charts have had round off top which led to a correction. This was followed by bounce, which may explain the recent pump in traditional markets. If this is the bull trap, then the 100WMA may be a key indicator as to when prices may hit resistance and capitulate. I found that percentage drop and increase in recent prices very similar leading towards the 08 crash. Also, price found support on the 1500WMA after correcting over 53% from the 100WMA. Perhaps leading into the later stages of this year employment rates would be another key indicator to keep track off, as if this declines it would probably end the year in a recession. Interesting to note also is that BTC and NASDAQ is also reaching its 100WMA and any rejection seen on them may ripple and affect markets.
SP:SPX
by m44kka
LEI clear Recession warning: What it means for Bitcoin?The LEI (Leading Economic Indicators) has a great track record of predicting recessions. While a recession has been much anticipated for many months... now the data is coming in to actually support the possibility. What does this mean for Bitcoin? The two most important data points we have (because we don't actually have a major recession to draw upon in Bitcoin's lifetime) is the COVID crash and March 9th this year... the "banking crisis" FUD. When COVID fears hit the markets Bitcoin responded like a risk asset. It lost over -60% of its USD value from the high of 2020 to that point. As the "Banking Crisis" hit markets last month so too did Bitcoin fall over -20%. What this suggests is that when recession fears grow and become realized... Bitcoin will drop as a risk asset. The future of it though (in both cases) is V-shaped. So fear not. But also ignore not. Be thinking about buying opportunities.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
2
VIX: VOLATILITY CYCLES / COMPRESSION / DIVERGENCE / PUTOVERCALLDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have included an update on a MACRO analysis of VIX VOLATILITY CYCLES. The creation of a set of new cycles is marked when VIX finds a new floor of support. POINTS: 1. Deviations have been adequately adjusted for VIX with a 7 Point difference between CHANNELS. 2. Price Action is currently resting at NEW FLOOR of 19 & Price Action is consolidating. 3. 5 YEAR TREND LINE IS APPROACHING MONTHLY PRICE ACTION FLOOR. 3. NO RECESSION AFTER 1998 HAS EVER COME TO AN END WITHOUT VIX FIRST SPIKING TO 40 OR 45 AT LEAST. RSI: There is in fact a lot to be said for RSI as it rests roughly below the 50 Point average which would signal that RSI is set to flip into Oversold territory. RSI must reach the 30 Point average in the coming weeks or anything above the 30 Point average & rising could signal a divergence occurring between ascending RSI LEVELS & CONSOLIDATING PRICE ACTION WHICH CAN MAKE FOR SOME VIOLENT VOLATILITY IN THE NEAR FUTURE. MACD: As of now MACD is resting at an average oversold level of -2.0 but is signaling a move to the upside in coming weeks. MAIN POINTS OF CONTROL: 1. RSI DIVERENCE OCCURS AS RSI RISES & PRICE ACTION CONSOLIDATES. 2. MACD FLIPS INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY. 3. A BREAK OF 21 POINTS FOR PRICE ACTION CAN BE INDICATIVE OF FURTHER UPSIDE FOR VIX IN THIS SCENARIO. FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com TVC:VIX CBOE:VIX
TVC:VIXLong
by DGSTBROKERACC
The S&P 500 BottomTop of mind for investors and traders right now is whether or not the S&P 500 has reached its bottom. While this is an impossible question to answer and depends on which timeframe one is looking for a bottom, I will attempt to provide an general analysis below. First, the chart above is a quarterly chart (each candle represents a 3-month period) of the S&P 500. The pink line and shaded area represent periods of U.S. recessions as designated by data published by the Federal Reserve. The white line is the 20-period moving average. The 20-period moving average is the most commonly used reference point for the mean (average) price of the time period being analyzed. The 20-period moving average is also the mean of the Bollinger Bands, which are used to detect how over- or under-extended price is relative to its mean. GDP data suggest that we were technically in a recession in the first half of 2022. In the past 50 years, every recession has seen the S&P 500 revert down to its mean on the quarterly chart. Even the mild recession in the early 1990s, which hardly anyone remembers today, nearly tagged the mean. In fact, most recessions saw further downside movement. During the Dotcom Bust and the Great Recession the S&P 500 declined all the way to the lower Bollinger Band on the quarterly chart (as shown below). The current stagflationary period (where inflation is elevated and economic growth is low) is most similar to the stagflationary period of the 1970s. During this period, we had a series of intermittent recessions and a relatively flat stock market over a period of about a decade. As you can see in the chart below, during each recession, the S&P 500 bottomed at either the mean of the Bollinger Band or down at the lower band (on the quarterly chart). It was not until Paul Volcker sent interest rates to the moon that inflation finally ended in the early 1980s. Every yearly chart I've analyzed suggests we have entered into a period of stagflation and we will likely see higher inflation, higher unemployment, higher interest rates, and intermittent recessions for years to come. This is happening while the yearly S&P 500 Stochastic RSI oscillator is trending down sharply following more than a decade of rapid stock market expansion. So far as of writing, we have not reached the S&P 500 mean on the quarterly chart. There is an overwhelming likelihood that, at some point in the future, we will. Nonetheless, traders ought not to base their trades on slowly moving yearly charts, as even in a prolonged downturn there can be lucrative intermediate-term long opportunities. Indeed, the quarterly mean (20-period moving average) moves up over time, and when we do revert down to it, that price may be higher than the current price. Here are some other arguments for why we may have seen an intermediate-term bottom of the S&P 500 -- First, seasonality: As you can see in the seasonality chart below, the month of June often puts in the low for the year, which is sometimes retested in the August through October period (highlighted in yellow). Second, Fibonacci levels: As you can see, June's price action bounced off an important Fibonacci level. Price is also technically being supported on the third Fibonacci spiral from the Great Depression high as shown below (though this is precarious when viewed on the yearly timeframe). Third, the intermediate term oscillators are starting to create a bias of momentum to the upside as shown in the chart below. Fourth, the chart of the ticker S5TH is breaking out. The S5TH ticker simply represents the number of stocks in the S&P 500 that are above their 200 day moving average. This is extraordinarily bullish and a warning signal to those holding short positions. Fifth, there has been a clear bullish breakout of the Advance Decline Line (ADL), as shown in the chart below. The advance-decline line is a technical indicator that plots the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks on a daily basis. The advance-decline line is used to show market sentiment, as it tells traders whether there are more stocks rising or falling. Right now it is signaling a bullish reversal. There are other bullish signals occurring as well, such as improving sentiment in the Put-Call Ratio and in the Fear-Greed Index. Although all of these indicators are turning bullish. We still need to see the VIX break down below its trend line and the dollar index (DXY) to start declining, the latter of which will likely happen. About a month ago, I questioned whether the DXY would top at its Fibonacci level, and indeed it formed an upper wick and came right back down to this level before the close of July, forming a bearish inverted hammer. There were many dollar index bulls who thought at the time that I was being ridiculous, but the charts were showing clear bearish divergence and there was very little chance that the dollar index (DXY) would blast past this important Fibonacci level while being so over-extended. I ignore all noise in the market and focus solely on what chart is saying. Charts are mathematical, statistical, and predictable. Charts also do not lie. While anything can happen, it's quite certain that the coming months and years will be quite a roller coaster. There are very few people who are prepared for the magnitude of stock market decline that could happen now that unlimited quantitative easing is no longer sustainable. I'll be posting updates along the way. Look first, then leap!
SP:SPX
by SpyMasterTrades
41
4/10/2023 (Monday) SPY Analysis and Market Macro Deep DiveIn this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds to equities. In the Trading View App, You can use the links below and hit play, so you can see the action from the dates the charts were published. I will keep this going so we can follow outcomes to analysis. Please Like and Subscribe , or on Trading View, Follow and Boost! See you Next Monday for the next Market analysis!
TVC:MOVELong
by Markets-Sniper