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Rangebound

BTC Update! Tight range and EMA resistanceYesterdays chart I discussed the lack of trade setups and general choppiness in the market which had me sitting cash and patiently waiting. I was also watching our EMA resistance on 4 hour and Daily chart. And we continue to battle these EMAs as resistance. 4 Hour chart has really slowed down within a tight range for about 32 hours and counting now. I have outlined that in the purple box. I am watching a bit closer now for the EMAs and general break up or break down from this box. A break down will send us to under $10k and a break out I'd expect a move closer from $10,200's up towards $10,500 for a possible scalp trade. Lets see how much longer bulls can stick within this $150-200 range they find themselves in. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
$SPY/$QQQ Bullish Harami PrintsThe ETF's tracking the markets printed some true Bullish Harami patterns for the past two days, which according to some research says that the next days move is up 53% of the time, while the next day is down 47% of the time. See attached figure. If the pattern presents in a downtrend, the smaller the body of the second candle means the stronger the signal. This is a pretty small candle compared to the first, and it would not be surprising at all to see tomorrow be a green day in SPY. However, as noted in linked post, we remain range bound by the weekly Long Legged Doji to between 294 and 282 areas. Until those are broken, expect to see this back and forth. Trade accordingly. Happy hunting, and GLTA!! www.feedroll.com
AMEX:SPY
by UnknownUnicorn1314136
2
Bitcoin: 10K Short Squeeze Location Still In Play?Bitcoin is still NOT in a trend relative to how we evaluate the bigger technical picture. This piece of information alone serves as an important guide when it comes to managing our recent swing trade long. The aim of this article is to provide insight into the best practices and mindset that has produced consistent results throughout the recent bearish and bullish conditions of Bitcoin. It is important to understand the objective of our LONG only strategy. We did not choose to work from one side of Bitcoin because of some inflexible opinion of the future. We made this strict choice because using leverage, and being subjected to the individual rules and whims of each exchange does NOT appeal to our risk profile. It is a personal preference that helps to construct boundaries around our decision making process for our swing trade strategy (which is NOT the same as our position trade or inventory strategy). What many new traders and investors fail to realize is that timing ANY market over the short term is a game of psychology, yours relative to the market crowd. The game is set in an uncertain environment that generates a constant flow of information accompanied by a high degree of randomness. The ONLY element we can control is our own behavior which translates into one thing: HOW WE MANAGE RISK. It is an environment where YOU must create the rules, and NOT succumb to the whims and impulses of our human programming (intuition, feelings, bias). So we have rules that define what a trend and what a consolidation is. Bitcoin has been gyrating within a range of corrective consolidation since June. NOTHING HAS CHANGED, even though your friends who are publishing 1 hour charts may suggest otherwise. By sticking to our rules on how to navigate a range bound environment, we can operate with REALISTIC expectations as far as risk (where to place stop orders) and profit targets. All the other experts? Too busy projecting the next outrageously unrealistic high or low. Our mindset and strategy has allowed us to share two swing trade long ideas over the previous two weeks. One triggered at 10,435 while the other at 10,255. I can't provide any more specifics, but I can say our profit targets for both of these ideas are below the 12K resistance zone. These long ideas developed in line with our premise that any test of the 10K (or 9750) support zone is a high probability reversal location for swing trade LONGS. And so far, even in the face of seemingly ever bearish price action and patterns, our premise still holds true. Can Bitcoin break the support and revisit 9K? ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN. We trade our premise until the market proves otherwise, and if our premise is negated in a dramatic way, (major sell off) we have stops in place to PROTECT our capital. One loss will only set our performance back by 3% which is still way ahead of being red for the year. Inexperienced investors and traders may laugh at a 10% return because they do not yet realize the weight and value of CONSISTENCY, and stability of lower risk trades. They would rather have LOTS of action, and struggle to keep any profits they randomly generate (its more entertaining, I guess). Looking ahead, as long as price maintains itself around 10K (this includes testing 9750), we will continue to look for long setups. We prefer to align our trades with the favorable probabilities presented by the market. And when those probabilities no longer favor our strategy, we DON'T jump to a new strategy. Instead we STAND ASIDE and WAIT for probabilities to become favorable once again. In other words, this is how we CONTROL our behavior in an uncertain and highly random environment. We don't REACT to every news item, Twitter guru, or price spike, we just let the market CONFORM to our rules and position ourselves for a greater chance of a positive outcome. 9750 is the .382 retrace of the entire bullish swing originating from the 3150 low. The 9806 to 10338 area is a minor support zone relative to the recent bullish swing that began in July. Our focus is on the probability of bullish reversals off this area. Either it works out, or it doesn't. It is up to the market now, not up to us. Reacting to any bearish signal may work on occasion, but it is simply not within the scope of our rules to behave in such a way. You don't have to be in every move to generate a consistent return, and our track record reflects this. Are you in this to donate your capital to those who can control their behavior more effectively than you? Understand the psychology that drives markets and how it expresses itself on a chart. Once you comprehend the meaning of this, you will be in a much better position to capitalize on the herd mentality rather than contribute to it.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
9
Bitcoin: Another Fake Out Or The Rally To 20K?Bitcoin is nearing our second target that we shared as part of our alternate swing trade idea almost a week ago. Why are we not calling for 20K or some other unrealistic target? Again it has everything to do with the proportions of the recent price structure. The goal of this analysis is to provide a sense of perspective and context as they relate to short term timing strategies like swing trades. Why Not 20K? It begins with Elliott Wave. That is the foundation that provides a broad road map that helps to define locations and probabilities of how the market is LIKELY to react, NOT definitely react. Those who knock this framework do not recognize its value because they are too focused on precise outcomes. It is usually dismissed as too subjective, since there are so many different interpretations of the same situation. The key to Elliott Wave is to use it in a general sense, NOT in a super detailed complex way. We used it in a general sense when we were able to OBJECTIVELY identify a broader 5 Wave impulse structure (which peaked at 14K). That structure represents a large degree Wave 1. After Wave 1, naturally comes Wave 2. Wave 2's are CORRECTIVE. Knowing this tipped us off AFTER the 14K peak was confirmed, that the following price activity was going to most LIKELY be range bound, noisy, and full of fake outs. We anticipated this type of price action for weeks. How Did This Help Us? Since we had REALISTIC expectations of how Wave 2 is likely to play out, we were able to measure support levels that were relevant and HIGH probability for BULLISH reversal activity. So while the "gurus" are calling for shorts at 9750, we know better to look for longs. Elliott Wave provides the starting point, and then we refine it to get a better sense of probabilities and what to expect. The 9750 support is NOT precise. Anyone looking for precision in this game are in the wrong game. Price went below 9200 before exhausting itself BUT what kept us short term bullish was the fact that buyers came in relatively quickly. Just look at the candles in the area. The most recent was a bullish pin bar which completed a double bottom formation. Nothing can be any clearer than that (amusingly I was criticized for not knowing how double bottoms work). Don't Focus On The Reward Alone. We are more aligned with the market through its own proportions. That is where REALISTIC targets come from relative to the time frame you are operating within. For this reason, we chose 10,535 and 11,080. They are well below the next relevant resistance zone that begins around 11,608. Does that mean Bitcoin will stop and reverse lower at these levels? WE HAVE NO IDEA. In fact, since the broader structure is bullish, there is a good chance price can attempt to push back into the 12Ks. We are more concerned with our reward/risk rather than reward alone. If we are wrong, and Bitcoin goes higher, we have still exited with a profit while having no more exposure to risk. How many times have people had an opportunity to take profits while they are available, only to watch the trade give everything back plus more? These are short term swing trades, NOT investments. Our track record is a reflection of this important best practice. The key to giving a trade a chance to exhibit a larger scale break out and run to 20K relates to the probabilities of the wave structure. At the moment, structural evidence suggests we are still in a Wave 2 which remember is corrective. Fake outs and noise are still to be EXPECTED. We will NOT know that Wave 3 is in effect UNTIL AFTER THE FACT. The price structure has to prove itself. Evidence will come in the form of a major resistance level being compromised and right now that level is the 14K swing high. When that break out occurs, probability will be in favor of a run to 20K in a matter of a weeks. Until that happens, we operate with the expectations of a range bound market. In summary, ORIGINAL perspective and context are of prime importance when formulating your own strategy. These elements are best shaped by information that comes directly from the market itself, NOT from any "expert" interpretations or opinions, ESPECIALLY if they are available for FREE. I have a responsibility that prevents me from sharing precise timing details, so instead I try to point to ways that will provide quality information for much more informed decision making. If you are going to criticize, then at least provide clear solutions and examples for the community to LEARN from.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
31
BTC Update! Which direction will price break?Apologize for being absent for the last week or so. Been busy and then had lost internet for a couple of days over weekend. I'm back up and running finally and overall not a ton has happened. Previously we had a low of $8919 marked for where bulls would possibly defend but I still hold our true strongest support is the 7400-7700 range. We fell to $9071 and bounced to $11,112 (essentially a double top with our prior bounce to 11,080). So we have a fairly large range of this 9000-11100 area that we are trading within for 9 days now. Not the easiest to trade much within this range in my opinion. We have now seen the bearish cross of our 12 and 26 EMAs for first time since February and struggling to get and close above these EMAs on daily chart. I personally did enter some BTC right around our current price at 10,200 and thus far have just been hanging onto it and waiting to see if we fall lower to scale into additional positions. But otherwise nothing significant and just patiently waiting for price to make its move back into 11,000's or break down below 9,000. Will update later this week if we can break out of this range (Bulls ideally seeking a higher low here compared to 9071 and then shoot for higher highs. Bears ideally seeking a higher low, lower high and then lower lows). Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
BTC Update! Another EMA rejection. Will bulls hold support againHere we go yet again. We've been watching this range for a few days and expected a 12 EMA rejection due to it holding support for so long and that often becomes resistance. This is now multiple rejections from our 12 EMA on daily. Similar to last post however, the more times a support or resistance is tested, it will eventually cave. The bulls have held support now down at $7427, $7450 and $7508 and now have resistances at $8097, $8134, and the 12EMA which continues to lower. Personally anything within the $7500 to 12EMA resistance range isn't of great interest to me so have remained patient. One can certainly seek bottom fishing plays along support and sells along 12 EMA and many traders have taken advantage of this for multiple trades over the last week. Just not something I have personally worked and will patiently wait for a break above or a flush below for a potential oversold bounce trade. Lets see if bears can drive price back towards support and if bulls can defend it or will the bulls retest our EMA resistance yet again? Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats