CCI - Pennant breakout Earnings play $82.50/$85 Feb-17 PutsCCI is a very speculative earnings play. It seems forming a pennant formation. we think with the earnings it will breakdown.
Trade Criteria
Date first found - January 13, 2017
Entry Target Criteria- $82.50 or $85 Feb-17 Put options
Exit Target Criteria- $77
Stop Loss Criteria- N/A
Trade Status: Pending
(Note: Trade update is delayed here.)
Put
RMBS - To short at the break of 11.57RMBS was a good success from our Big one class & it is in the profit tracking area. However, there seems a secondary trade opportunity if it breaks below the support area & breaks below 11.57
We would also consider $12 January puts
You can check our detailed analysis on RMBS in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span: 5:15 "
Trade Status: Pending
Additional down indication for AALHistorically when the Coppock Curve reaches this level, the stock drops an average of 12.9% over the next few weeks. There is no clear bottom based on the current trends, but my conservative drop is to at least 42.50. The bottom could very likely be in the low 30s. The key to a drop below 42.50 could be around the earnings release.
AMERICAN AIRLINES is groundedHistorically when the Vortex Indicator reaches this level, the stock drops an average of 13% over the next few weeks. There is no clear bottom based on the current trends, but my conservative drop is to at least 42.50. The bottom could very likely be in the low 30s. The key to a drop below 42.50 could be around the earnings release.
CRM- Short as it breaks below $73.03, & $72.5 May puts @ $6.25CRM
Date First Found - November 15, 2016
Pattern/Why- breakdown of trend line and up channel, possible earnings play
Entry Target Criteria- break below $73.03
Exit Target Criteria- $57.13
Stop Loss Criteria- $77.37
Indicator Notes- declining Twiggs Money Flow
Special Note- we would consider May $72.50 Puts currently @ $6.25
Next Earnings Release Date- November 17, 2016
LOW - Potential short trade, looking for Put option playLOW seems forming a head & shoulder formation & shaping up nicely for a short trade.
To trade this we would consider $72.50 / 70 Jun/July Puts.
You can check detailed analysis on LOW in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.screencast.com (Available to subscribers)
Time Span- 43:40"
Trade Status: Pending
EXPE - Upward channel break Short from $111.13 to $83.13EXPE was a Presidential picks & Xmas wish-list, nicely it hits its First target of $113 form $122.87 & now we are looking for a second zone trade opportunity.
It is running within a big upward channel formation & we are looking for a break of upward channel.
Trade Criteria
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $83.13
Exit Target Criteria- $111.13
Stop Loss Criteria- $118.13
Option - $115 Apr Puts @ $8.26
You can check detailed analysis on EXPE in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span- 5:50"
Trade Status: Pending
Lacking Positive Energy for KMIHistorically when the True Strength Indicator reaches its current level the stock drops a minimum of 1.18% with an average of 5.06% over the next few weeks. I am tracking multiple potential trendchannel support levels and the first level to get hit coincides with a shared support level at 19.83. From the CLOSE on December 30, 2016, movement to this level would equate to a drop around 4.25% which is very realistic.
Airline CooloffHistorically when the vortex negative hits this level the stock drops at least 1.21% with an average drop around 13.57%. A drop around this average is possible, but DAL has not been trading at large enough daily spreads to make this likely in the next few weeks. A more conservative drop would be near the 47.56 mark which has been a pseudo support/resistance level.
Even more bad indicators for FBHistorically when FB reaches this vortex negative level, the stock drops an average of 6.71%. FB is currently in a bearish pennant and due to break out up or down. Based on historics, the pennant, and potential support levels, it looks like a drop to 108.23 is highly likely over the next few weeks.
I am slightly skeptical of the pennant break within the next few trading days, but those believing Trump will reduce capital gains tax rates may conduct massive profit taking for calendar year 2017 while there is profit to be had in order to reap the reward come tax time in Spring of 2018. Large amounts of profit taking can become the catalyst for a near term drop in markets, or a correction which could lead to a greater than 6% drop.
Bold Prediction Unwelcoming to FB fansHistorically when FB reaches this RSI level, the stock drops more than 1% with an average drop of 5.94%. FB is currently in a bearish pennant and due to break out up or down. Based on historics, the pennant, and potential support levels, it looks like a drop to 108.23 is highly likely over the next few weeks.
I am slightly skeptical of the pennant break within the next few trading days, but those believing Trump will reduce capital gains tax rates may conduct massive profit taking for calendar year 2017 while there is profit to be had in order to feel the reward come tax time in Spring of 2018.
The common support level is 0.01% away from the average drop when this RSI has historically been met. This could be a coincidence, but also a helpful indicator of where a selloff could lead.
When it rains it pours on BXHistorically when the coppock curve reaches this level the stock drops at least 1% over the next few weeks with an average drop of more than 11%. I am looking at two levels over that time but also monitoring two timeframes for a significant loss to take place.
My conservative drop is around 25.81 where the stock floated multiple times since the election. This would only be a 4.53%, but conservatively most likely to be a sure thing.
The other play is near the bottom of the trendchannel. BX has dropped from the top of the channel to the bottom twice this year. The first occurred over 11 trading days and the second occurred over 53 trading days. Since BX is already beyond that 11 day point, I marked out 23 days (roughly half of 53) and 53 trading days. If the bottom of the channel is hit, it could happen within one of these timeframes.
A perfect storm of levels are pointing at January 17 (23 days from the top of the trend channel) and January 18 (roughly 10% drop from January 2). The 10 percent drop is a more conservative figure than the average 11.56% decline.
FB pennant ending soonFB is currently forming a pennant and the apex is around the first week in February. Most likely the pennant will break down from its current level, or bounce and break up.
First things first, FB is going down. Historically when the Coppock Curve reaches its current level, the stock drops an average of 7.78% with a minimum move around 0.75%. My conservative take is a slight drop over the next few weeks to at least 115.60. If this is the breakout for the pennant the move could be much lower putting a 7% drop in play.
LVS is not done droppingHistorically when VI reaches this level the LVS drops at least another 1%. The average drop is 13.13% with a minimum historical drop of 1.81%.
The support line in the current trend channel would equate to roughly a 6% drop over the next few weeks. I am conservatively forecasting a drop to the 52.45 level which is roughly 3.23% from the close on December 27.
More bad news for LVSA fourth indicator of a drop is based on historical levels for the Coppock Curve. LVS drops on average 11.05% when the Coppock Curve reaches its current mark. My conservative play at this point is a drop to the psychological 49.50 mark. This would bring in around 9% for the stock, but could bring in well over 75% on a properly placed PUT option.
EDU - Upward channel breakdown trade from $41.57 to $37.33EDU broken down from a long term upward channel.Retested it & seems rolling over. We think it will be good short from here.
Trade Criteria
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $41.57
Exit Target Criteria- $37.33
Stop Loss Criteria- $43.13
Option: $40 Apr-17 Puts
You can check detailed analysis on EDU in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span- 10:10"
Trade Status: Pending
MOMO - Moving average powered Short set up from $16.87 to $13.63
MOMO rolling over very nicely with very good divergence moneyflow. Its very volatile & seems to have the power of moving average behind it. Looking a very good short setup
Trade Criteria
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $16.87
Exit Target Criteria- $13.63 or lower
Stop Loss Criteria- $18.37
Option: $17.50 Apr puts @ $2.6
You can check detailed analysis on MOMO in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span- 7:45"
Trade Status: Pending
FLT - Rising wedge & pennant breakdown short - Target $125FLT broke down from a rising wedge, consolidated in pennant formation and now seems breaking down from the pennant. It is showing strong downward momentum as it crossed down all the moving average & down volume increased huge. Overall it looks a decent short with good risk-reward ratio.
Trade Criteria
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $140.71 or rally to 146
Exit Target Criteria- $125.13
Stop Loss Criteria- $150.73
Option: $155 May-17 puts
You can check detailed analysis on FLT in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span- 5:35"
Trade Status: Pending
BABA will dropHistorically BABA drops on average 7.57% when the VI reaches its current level. I have laid out 3 potential levels it could drop to. The first hurdle (which should easily be met) is 87.88 (pink dotted line). BABA has not been South of this mark since August. My three levels will certainly be in play once the stock drops past this level.
CONSERVATIVE PLAY:
The stock will drop and a nice solid psychological 85.00 is the position I am most comfortable playing.
AVERAGE DROP:
WIth the average drop of 7.57%, a solid 7% drop above the bottom trendlines is a safer play.
BOTTOM OF PSEUDO TRENDCHANNEL:
Although it is not the "official" bottom of the trendchannel, it has been a more common support line in the current trend. This position is just below the 80 mark which is more than a 10% drop from its current position. This is a riskier bet, but not impossible considering international instability and most stocks being significantly overpriced.
Third indicator of imminent LVS dropMany historical indicators are at play and against the short term for LVS. When the TSI reaches this level is stock drops at least another 1% but drops on average 9.14% over the next few weeks. I have outlined 3 potential points LVS could drop to.
CONSERVATIVE POINT:
With the average drop around 9.14%, an even 9% drop would be around the 51.88 mark and it is within the current trendchannel.
ESTIMATED BOTTOM OF TRENDCHANNEL AFTER NEW YEAR:
The estimated bottom of the trendchannel within the next few weeks is around the 50.50 mark which roughly equates to a 11.42% decline.
PRIOR 2015 INTEREST RATE HIKE DROP:
When interest rates were increased in December 2015, LVS dropped around 20.22% from the OPEN the day after the decision to the bottom before it turned around. This bottom is the current bottom line of the trendchannel, however, a similar 20% drop would bust out of the current trend. Although movement of this nature is most likely not going to be as drastic, nothing can be ruled out.