A pattern to PUT during weak marketI try to research and develop some pattern when the market is weak:
In this case I try 3 patterns below:
var int cnt_out_up = 0
Pattern #1: Big drop
wma_11 = ta.wma(close, 11)
wma11 = request.security(symbol=syminfo.tickerid, timeframe="13", expression=wma_11, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on)
wma_48 = ta.wma(close, 48)
wma48 = request.security(symbol=syminfo.tickerid, timeframe="13", expression=wma_48, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on)
rsi = ta.rsi(close, 9)
bigdrop = rsi + 8 < rsi and close > wma48
if bigdrop
cnt_out_up := cnt_out_up + 1
Pattern #2
var int cnt_put = 0
gain1 = math.abs(close-close )
gain2 = math.abs(close -close )
pattern_put = close >close and close >close and high<=high and close <= close and (gain1-gain2)/gain2 <= -0.5 or ((high-low)-(high-close)) / (high-low) < 0.25 and wma11 close and ochl < 0.1 and (low < low and low < low )
If pattern #1, #2 and #3 occur then I set a PUT trigger.
Try this one and enjoy!
Put
SP500 Weekly Forecast Analysis 3-7 Oct 2022 SP500 Weekly Forecast Analysis 3-7 Oct 2022
We can see that currently the volatility is around 4.38% for this week, decrising from the 4.58% from the last week.
Currently there is around 24.3% that the asset is going to close either above or below the channel:
TOP 3757
BOT 3430
The current volatility percentile is around 89th, placing us in a very risking and volatility week.
And in this situations in general the market moves:
AVG weekly bull candle = 2.5%
AVG weekly bear candle = 2.76%
With this mind, from the opening price it would situate us around
TOP 3684
BOT 3492
At the same time, due to the nature of the opening price, making this weekly candle a bullish candle, there is currently a
38% that we will break the ath of previous weekly candle of 3750 and there is a 66% that we will touch the low of previous candle
which is 3570.
From the technical analysis point of view:
The majority of moving averages ranging from 10 to 200, are currently around 66.6%% agreement that the market is in a short trend ( the current price is below those moving averages)
At the same time if we are looking at the candle type since the beginning of the year, we can see that 59% of them were bearish, solidificating the bearish trend.
News that can affect the price of this asset this week:
- Monday 3 October : ISM PMI
- Tuesday 4 October : JOLT Job
- Wednesday 5 October : ADP and ISM release
- Thursday 6 October : Initial Jobless Claims and ECB Report
- Friday 7 October: Nonfarm Payrolls
Russel 2000 Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September Russel 2000 Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September
Currently our volatility for Russel is at 4.3%, increasing from 3.76% last week, located on 70th percentile, placing us in a high volatility environment
Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 16.7% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below)
TOP 1746
BOT 1620
At the same time, based on the previous calculations:
- There is a 28% chance that the previous high from last week of 1830 is going to be touched
- There is a 70% chance that the previous low from last week 1660 is going to be touched
We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation of bearish candle than bullish.
On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 2.9% for bull candles and 2.95% for the bear candles from the opening price.
From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week:
- Core Durable release, CB Consumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep
- Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep
- US GDP and Jobless Claims coming on Thursday 29 Sep
- Core PCE on Friday 29 Sep
Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
Nasdaq Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September Nasdaq Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September
Currently our volatility for Nasdaq is at 4.55%, increasing from 4.03% last week, located on 80th percentile, placing us in a high volatility environment
Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 15.3% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below)
TOP 11820
BOT 10905
At the same time, based on the previous calculations:
- There is a 35% chance that the previous high from last week of 12140 is going to be touched
- There is a 65%chance that the previous low from last week 11215 is going to be touched
We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation of bearish candle than bullish.
On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 3.13% for bull candles and 366% for the bear candles from the opening price.
From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week:
- Core Durable release, CB Consumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep
- Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep
- US GDP and Jobless Claims coming on Thursday 29 Sep
- Core PCE on Friday 29 Sep
Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
SP500 Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September SP500 Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September
Currently our volatility coming from volatility token for SPX is at 4.15%, increasing from 3.41% last week, located on 80th percentile, placing us in a high volatility environment
Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 10% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below)
TOP 3831
BOT 3578
At the same time, based on the previous calculations:
- There is a 35% chance that the previous high from last week of 3933is going to be touched
- There is a 65%chance that the previous low from last week of 3660 is going to be touched
We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation of bearish candle than bullish.
On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 2.51% for bull candles and 2.76% for the bear candles from the opening price.
From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week:
- Core Durable release, CB Consumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep
- Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep
- US GDP and Jobless Claims coming on Thursday 29 Sep
- Core PCE on Friday 29 Sep
Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
XAUUSD D1 - Short Signals following $1700/oz breachXAUUSD D1
This is a little way away don't get me wrong, but keen to follow this if the dollar continues to perform the way it has been and the way we expect it to going forward.
A simple break of support and retest of the underside is when we are looking to get involved here.
META day trade and monthly swing idea - jtgladiatorNASDAQ:META
META is looking weak at these level. Its setup for a really great monthly swing.
Lets watch the price action and see what happens.
Here are my levels:
For the day traders/weekly player:
170c > 163.05 Confirm hold above this level before taking calls.
Grab puts 160p on the rejection of this level.
155p < 159.17 PT is 155.23.
If this level holds and there is a bounce, then grab the 160c.
For monthly swing play:
The swing entry for this is 155.23 with a PT of 137. I am hoping this stays an inside candle for the next two days.
be prepared for the reversal to grab calls...but I think this is put city.
Let me know what you think in the comments
AAPL Put/Short Swing Idea - jtgladiatorNASDAQ:AAPL
Hey fam,
The AAPL swing idea is pretty straight forward. There was a decent reversal off 176.15
We had the inside candle on thursday followed by the big red candle down on Friday.
Looking at the weekly we have a very long wick on the shooter.
I am looking for a break below and hold of 171.31 to grab a 170p for 8/26 or 165p for 9/2 or later.
The price action is pushing us down. Look for price aggregation to potentially reverse off this level. If it does, grab calls.
Calls
175c > 173.74 or puts if it "rejects"
Puts
170p or 165p < 171.31 - calls on the reversal
My live chart
www.tradingview.com
AMD Put Swing Idea 8/22 - jtgladiatorNASDAQ:AMD
AMD has got a couple inside candles on the weekly. With Fridays close in the red we have a 22 Reversal AND looking for a revstrat on the weekly to the downside. Could go green but I like it short.
Call swing idea:
101c > 99.25 - if price reverses here then grab 95p
Put Swing Idea:
94p < 94.59 to swing for 8/26
85p to swing for 9/2 or even 9/16 - buy time. Price can reverse here so grab calls if it does.
MY live Chart -
www.tradingview.com
NVDA Swing Trade Idea 8/22 - jtgladiatorNASDAQ:NVDA
$NVDA with the reversal on the daily looking pretty good to short.
Call Idea
188c > 185.20 watch for reversal at the top of this for a nice scalp
Put Idea
173p < 177.70 8/26
165p for 9/2 to 9/16 for a nice weekly swing
Be aware of reversal - not super likely
Link to live chart
www.tradingview.com
Mara SAFER Way DOTM Puts 2 OutcomesThe Trifecta Income play is designed to either generate income or gets the stock assigned to you at a lower cost.
YOU SHOULD ONLY USE THIS TECHNIQUE ON STOCKS YOU WANT TO HOLD FOR LONG TERM.
Pay attention to the company as you do not want get a stock that is in a declining industry like KODAK when digital cameras came out.
We do this by selling a DOTM put, that immediately generates income at the expense of our buying power. In this case, we are selling the:
MARA Jan 2023 $5 PUT
for a net credit of $1.38/share or $138/contract, and a reduction in buying power of $362 per contract.
Assuming that the MARA closes remains above $5 through Jan 2023, our return is:
$5 share price / $ 1.38 credit = 27.6%
We can do this because the have a target support zone from 4.5 to 5.5 with a target resistance zones of 15.
There are two possible outcomes:
1) MARA closes above $5 by expiration in which case we keep the entire credit for a return of 27.6%
2) MARA closes below $5 at expiration in which case we get assigned at $5. Because of the credit our cost basis for the stock is $5 - less the credit received $1.38 for a cost basis of $3.62 which is below our target support zone of $4.5.
Net result, we have a safety of margin from the current stock price of $9.78 - $3.62 (assignment cost) of $6.16, which means we have a safer entry at reduced cost using this safer trade structure.
Hope it helps
Marc
$SPY - Switching to a Heavy ShortI've been talking about the market rallying upwards in my previous posts since June/July, and finally it's time for me to go short ( heavy ) in this market. :-) We've had strong #DP prints at these high levels that lead me to believe buyers are scaling out of their positions if not completely out. The flows have been consistent over the past couple of weeks with heavy Put flow today. We've been experiencing hard resistance this week, and re-testing it as the #FOMO fueled market drives upwards. At the most, I'm anticipating for a #bullish fake out if we do see more upside movement in the market.
Reiterating my belief that we're far from the 2-2.5% #inflation and events like the spending bills passing will only serve to aggravate inflation. I've been keeping my expectations on where I feel the market will likely trend. This time around, I see us making a new low in the next 6-12 months if not sooner this upcoming fall.
Last Trade of the night Easy 1 gigatrillion pipshonestly i saw this coming, all trades green today as i predicted the bullish news for the dollar. The lower inflation news wasnt that sexy, but market rode off the hype and it always has to correct itself.
so ya boy came through wit the fattest short on all x/usd pairs today and made le bank.
I've linked the two other trades i made today - both profit which you coulda ate had you of seen them.
SPY LOOKS LIKE A DUMP COMING - BUT WE KNOW SPY LOVES TO LIEAll,
Pretty obvious rising area here which usually results in a dump. Personally I would be split here on calls and puts and wait for conformation. I give it 70/30 odds it drops.
However, I think we all know SPY/market loves to give an impression and do the unthinkable.
A) can we get positive news on war
B) can we get sp500 ER / good news on some ones that are down
C) positive fed news of any kind / inflation news
A combination of TWO of these would probably breakup and cause a parabolic move up if that I think to 440-450. Either way always make sure to cover yourself in areas like this. You can always sell your call options for a 10-20% loss, which will easily get covered by your PUTS. Don't get greedy.
PCC - Put call Ratio / CBOEROCs exploded once again.
Hopefully, this is squeezed hard off a further Extreme reading.
OR
It's off to 2.0ish as HappyCloud Suggested might happen...
www.tradingview.com
We're going to fail, but a FULL REVERSAL prior to failure... whopsawed,
but in tot he BUZZSAW again.
I'd count on it that whipsaw.
13.% looks to be in the offing for the next decline.