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Psychology

The Trading Psychology behind the Market MovementsWe all make winning and loosing trades but we tend to ignore our losses and we celebrate when our trades are profitable. We are not good or bad traders because we're able to predict the future by using Technical Analysis. We all make winning and losing trades just because of probability. Some of the traders out there can really use Technical Analysis and get a good percentage of the market future directions but they're just a few. The rest of us must use other strategies to be a winner. The most important thing in trades, in every market, is to understand the basic Psychology behind the price movements. I can follow a bull trend if I believe that everybody else or the majority will do the same. I start to sell when I see that the majority does the same. We follow the Mass. The point is "Who starts a Bull/Bear Market?" We do. The bigger is your share of the market the more successful you can be. The reasons behind that are multiple and sometimes difficult to understand. The Crypto Market isn't different. All the traders, big or small act because of the same reasons that drive any other market. The peculiarity of the Crypto Market is just that the kind of fundamental that is represented by the tokens/coins, is a technology, a new technology that will change completely the way we exchange goods and services in our economies. Knowing that most of us Hold the coins/tokens because we believe that the idea/project/white paper behind the token/coin will probably represent the standard in the near future. Now, how about BTC and Altcoins? BTC is the God in this market or at least we were used to believe so. This means that if the price of BTC rises, the prices of the other/major Altcoins will most probably rise. This used to happen just because people believed that if BTC rose all of us would have thought the same (bull market is on, so we can buy at any price now because all the rest of us will do the same). ...but something has already changed.. Today we observe different price movements of the major and some minors Altcoins just because people started to see that this is possible and so, even though BTC price moves sideways and almost flat a price rise in other coins is possible. What is the problem? Lots of people hold the coins to wait for a big price rise. The volume traded is too little to ignite a bull run. Only BTC has, at the moment, the very big share of the market capable to ignite a huge Bull Run. What shall we do? WHEN BTC PRICE MOVEMENTS MAKE YOU BORED LOOK AT SOME OTHER COINS FOR SHORT TERM OPPORTUNITIES. YOU WON'T BE DISAPPOINTED. JUST FOR THE SHORT TERM... TEZOS, XRP, STELLAR, LINK, CARDANO, COSMOS, BAT ARE SOME OF MY FAVORITE. This is not an investment advice. Do not trade according to this article. Be good and enjoy your life regardless of what BTC price will do. Cheers
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by RobRobin
The Secrets to Forex & Why You're the Wrong Type of Loser (pt.1)This is a 'many-part' educational series to help turn smooth brains into folded brains. The series reveals the true power of the social and psychological factors shaping markets. This is abstracted from 7,000 hours of research in markets and finance and is a synthesized thesis between my research, John Boyd's work on strategy and adaptability, and David Bohm's theories on emergent behavior. The endstate for the reader will be vastly improved risk management, and novel methods for reducing uncertainty. Part 1: Why 85%+ of Retail Traders are the Wrong Type of Loser The true holy grail of markets.. the risk-free rate of return asset, doesn't exist (even perpetuity coupons aren't risk-free). Risk or uncertainty permeates all aspects of our reality. Managing risk is a fundamental component of all business, law, politics, military affairs, sports, etc. It is essential to any form of competition (which markets are). Virtually every element of any strategy employed anywhere involves risk management. It's more than just money... its everything; your relationships, your happiness, your experiences. Your ability to manage risk and uncertainty will positively correlate to your future quality of life. Why? Because we can't see the future, but we live into the future. Thus, no matter your wealth or political power, uncertainty is still your master. Fear of uncertainty drives your psychology, the psychology of other individuals, organizations, and even nations. And what these entities do, affect you. Even at subconscious levels. Those that fight uncertainty, do so at varying levels of competence. In the world of derivatives, and for our interests its sub-class: forex, speculation against uncertainty shapes most of the price discovery experience visualized on your favorite candlebar chart. What happens on your chart on higher timeframes is the result of speculation; even those with carry trade positions are still speculating about rates and central bank decisions. The only people who aren't speculating are insider trading, which is illegal. It's illegal to not speculate... Make no mistake, in the world of speculation, those that fight the best battles, are the ones who fear uncertainty the most and go to the greatest lengths to conquer it. But we already determined that you can't conquer it, you can't see the future. So what does a 'best battle' or 'meeting halfway' even look like in trading? What do you call a loser that doesn't always lose? Let me stop for a second. You're probably thinking: 'this is obvious, no one wants to lose money, everyone is afraid of what they don't know, the future is unknowable, etc' 'How does this help me make money?' First, you need to understand what you are in this game called Markets. In this oddly balanced game, those with the most to lose often have the biggest say. And vice versa. You are the vice versa, the retail trader. Retail traders comprise 4 categories that often overlap, ie: people who usually do not have a professional background in investing/trading, or a professionally relevant education, or professional connections as a major client or data access, or a high networth. Your competitors are the opposite (they are all those things and more): the winners, the market makers, the whales, the money printers, the ones with the biggest say, the old money, the 'smart' money, whatever cringy title you want to give them. Commercials/institutions/fund managers/portfolio managers/pension managers/etc.. These guys are speculating about the future, just like you. But their speculation is what shapes price discovery and market movement, YOURS DOES NOT. This means that whatever you think the market does or should be, DOES NOT MATTER. Your fibonacci, does not matter. Your head and shoulders shampoo/pattern, does not matter. Your sup/res lines, do not matter. Your moon cycles, do not matter. Your RSI/MACD cross, does not matter. The only thing that matters, is what these commercials/institutions think. That's it. If they think that this head and shoulder on the 4h EURUSD matters, then it matters. If they think the moon cycle this month matters, then it matters. If they think communism is good for business, then it matters... etc. It's exactly as irrational as you might think. Now, with their fiduciary responsibilities, they do have to justify their picks. So moon rune interpretation is usually off the table. But guess what. These guys, despite their immense wealth, their research teams stocked with specialists with PhDs, and all the instant access to prime data in the world.. they still lose. They lose all the time, and they lose big. Eye wateringly big. The vast majority are barely winning 60% of the time, if even that... That's why many are offloading into 'less competitive' money-making opportunities; like underwriting, checking accounts, or alternative investments. Competition itself is too much of a risk for their uncertainty appetite. You have to applaud their level of greed. But to stay on target. Whether your technical system is profitable or not is often a factor of the fitness of your indicators with whatever strategy the commercial is using to execute entry implementation (or combination of models or commercial strategies). And when a few of their models/strategies are losing, it makes it even harder to win at this game (or in those instances, your system might win, whilst you rejoice at the amazing ability of your moon cycles to predict the future). But let's back this up, did some of you notice something off? 60%~ ... That's actually not bad. A trader who's experienced at losing (and yet making a profit in the long run) would kill for an average position win rate like that. Instead of thinking, "how do I avoid losers entirely" Stop wasting whatever brainpower you have. Start thinking, "how do I minimize my losers?" The losing positions are always going to happen, no matter your system. All edges fade, and even a mythical system that won 90% of the time will weaken over months or years. But if you learn to master the art of 'losing,' the overall win rate of your positions can AFFORD to be low. In many cases, it could even be less than 50%, and you could still make a living as a trader/investor. The best and brightest, the commercials and institutions, are barely going 60%. What makes you think you can do better? Does it mean all hope is lost? Not even close. It simply means that you need to focus less on your directional/positional bias strategy (the winrate), and more on your risk management strategy. You have to become the right type of retail trading loser, the 15%~ or so that retail brokers survey as profitable. These guys are losing 40%, 50%, 60%, even 70% of the time, and some of the them are still making big money. It's counter-intuitive but they are the guys winning at losing, and turning that into a living. Your ability to survive losers.. to adapt to uncertainty , is the first secret and the most important step into the weird world of profitable derivative trading. Okay, so you might be thinking: "Again, obvious. Isn't that just 2%? Isn't that just low margin? Only trade Majors? 100 pip SL?" If those were the first things you thought, then we still have a very long way to go. Fortunately, this is just the introduction. See you next week for part 2: 'time as the dominant parameter, fair value, and the 'center of gravity.
Education
by CountofCoins
GBPJPYhitting demand zone fibonacci support area ________________________________________________________________________________________ Golden Trading Rules: Big movements take time to develop ________________________________________________________________________________________ I'll be happy to read your opinion and ideas, and if you like the idea, please give it a like for support, thanks Remember, we are speculators, not investors ;) Have a profitable day Telegram Contact: t.me Supply And Demand Strategy
Long
by Aidin_Jabarpoor
1
Trading MindsetWELCOME TO WORLD OF TRADING Hi everyone, what I am about to talk right now is concerned with trading psychology. Everything that I am about to say right now is also a crucial aspect of my psychology and mindset that is fueling me to write this for you guys. Hence, we can deduce one thing from this. Psychology is the most important factor in deciding your future as trader. I will be honest upfront with you guys. So you’ve been introduced to the world of trading by your friend, family or anyone that doesn’t matter, so you’ve been told how the guy next door is making thousands of dollars with just few hours of work while you out there hustling yourself to exhaustion and making just about to survive your month doesn’t seen fair right? And exactly this guy has results to show for it to make you believe how if he can do it anyone can. Or you’ve seen couple of stories, Instagram post, Facebook post promising exponential gains in a few hours. With that said I want to address 2 main problems associated with trading which I believe are significantly important to understand before you step out there or if you’re already out there and struggling. 1) Holy grail in trading (a way or a method that will promise you returns on daily basis) Holy grail in trading what is it and does it exist? To answer this question, I want you to ask yourself a question first: why you are trading and what do u want to achieve from it Now that you’ve asked yourself that kindly note if the answer to these questions is (firstly: I want to accumulate wealth as soon as possible and drive a luxurious car next month. Secondly: I only want to find a way in trading that works 100% and gives me return on my investment daily) If these are you believes I am afraid to say you have work to do on yourself not on your system of approach of trading. Financial markets are a world of chaos there are millions of possibilities out there every day (imagine you just focus on 1 possibility consistently every day, where will that take you in the next coming years think about it) There are successful traders out there, trading and making living out it (the so-called narrative only 5% of people can make money in the markets) where’s the difference? The difference lies not on support was breached, trend line was broken or respected but on their mentality and mind set these people very well understand how market moves and work but be cautious they will never follow the market: no one in world has the intellect and memory to remember each and every tick movement of the market these people are focused on themselves and their performance in the market. They know exactly when to trade and when to stop trading. The approach of such people is not irregular but systematic and disciplined. To sum it up financial world is a world of chaos with billions of possibilities (FOCUS ON THE ONE THAT MAKES SENSE TO YOU AND COINCIDES WITH YOUR PERSONALITY AND ROUTINE) anyone can trade Weather your doctor or an engineer or just a high school student provided you are consistent, disciplined and motivated (YES UNDERSTANDING OF MARKET MOVEMENT IS VERY CRITICAL BUT YOU DON’T HAVE TO FOLLOW AND TRADE EVERY MOVE). 2) More importantly your Mind set (psychology) Now if you remember I asked you 2 question in the beginning 1st paragraph. If you focus on the fundamentals of that question, they are based on you and your way thinking (NOT ON YOUR METHOD OF TRADING LIKE I STRESSED EARLIER THERE ARE BILLIONS OF WAY OF MAKING MONEY IN THE MARKET STICK TO SOMETHING U BELIEVE IN ) I myself have been trading for almost 1 year am I a millionaire? No, I am not (and I say it proudly) I too was introduced in a conventional way just like many of you are. But trading (IS NOT A GET RICH QUICK SCHEME) (THIS NEEDS TO BE OUT THERE) but rather a skill set and unregulated chaotic state of mind that needs correction and discipline of execution which will I guarantee you results which brings me to my final and most important point YOU ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF YOUR TRADING JOURNEY Focus on yourself (yes u do need to understand the dynamics of market and its movement but alone with that I’m sorry to say you can’t achieve what u hope to achieve Let’s do some simple math’s in term of percentage shall we to give you an idea what I’m talking about Account size USD % return on investment USD ROI Account size X10 USD % return Usd ROI 1000 2 20 10,000 2 200 10000 2 200 100,000 2 2000 100000 2 2000 1,000,000 2 20,000 Don’t exhaust yourself trying to get rich fast as possible that won’t work at least not in the long run focus on getting solid return percentages first weekly, monthly, yearly consistently and get a job to build yourself step by step don’t rush the process and always believe in yourself give me a like if you agree
Education
by Danialhassan
1
Market cycles applied part 2. June & December bubbles.Let's assume 8950 was the top, or very close to it. Just to be prepared in the eventuality people that shorted at 8800 ish are not going to get liqudiated. Never know... Want to have a look at BitconnectCoin previous bubbles or in other words months of June & December. 1- June 2011 2- December 2013 3- June 2014 4- December 2017 5- December 2018 6- June 2019 What we can extract from these 6 examples (or 8 with dec 2013 *3) > When it dumps, if this was the top (I believe it is), it probably sees a large retrace (EW 1 rule). EW says 0.786 at least. Can be slighlty less. > Bitcoin dropped 11% at 6k and 22% at 8.4k, next dump 33%? That would bring us to 6000 exactly. > Where to re-enter exactly? This is for me to know and you to find out. Re-shorting around 0.786 is a pretty good RR, above 5... > People keep falling for the same stuff. Every body sees the same chart. I don't get it. Too obvious... Rince and repeat december 2020 maybe. > Bottom 900 to 1800 not sure where exactly yet... On the bubble chart denial it at the top, on the wall street cheat sheet denial is in the middle. Careful you talk about the same thing when you use that term. Honestly, they are in denial during the entire bear market. We should use different names. This:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by MrRenev
28
Tired of Losing? "The Market cannot hurt Me. I can only hurt my Self!" - Josh Ridenour There is a Time for Losing - The 29th verse of the Tao Te Ching is about how there is a time for everything in life. A time for being ahead, a time for being behind. In the market, there is also a time for everything. A time for large profits, small profits, break even trades, losers, and consecutive losers which lead to a draw down. It is easy to get caught up in the heat of the moment depending on where you currently are. But it does not really matter what part of the cycle you are in, it is all part of a traders life and the cycle of a trading performance. Stop Predicting! It is a false belief to believe prices and markets can be predicted. If it were possible eventually the majority of market participants would figure it out and there would be no one left on the other side of the trade, and the market would cease to exist entirely. If it were possible to predict markets, you could avoid losing trades and only take winners. Anyone who has been trading for very long knows this is simply not the case. The problem with making predictions is you then shut your mind off from the information the market gives you. Instead of being open to what is happening, your mind becomes rigid and can only take in what confirms your beliefs. This prevents you from being able to flow with the market, and open your self to the opportunity in front of you. The best traders admit when they are wrong, get out, and even reverse if necessary. If you dont believe this - listen to a stock analyst on Mad Money or any other TV show about stocks. They are often so confident in what they say that they might even convince you! But there is a reason why he is on TV talking about markets, and not trading them. If he could trade the markets and make money he would have no reason to go on TV as the financial rewards are miles apart. In fact, analysts make the worst traders because they are so caught up in their thoughts and beliefs about market direction that they cannot trade effectively! Cease efforts "Wu Wei" In Eastern Philosophy there is a term "Wu Wei." It cannot be fully understood or explained in words, only experienced. At the essence of its meaning is to "Let be" to "allow" or "flow like water down a stream." The point is to stop resisting, and stop trying so hard. The harder you grasp at something, the harder you try to succeed, the more you fail. If you are constantly trying to make money, and constantly trading, you are probably not making a consistent return. Rather than trying so hard, let trading come naturally. Profitable trading is effortless. It does not require thought, only action. In fact, I try to do as little as possible, and trade as little as possible. My most profitable weeks I hardly trade at all! This has become a fundamental aspect of my trading system. Instead of constantly trying to make money all the time, I simply wait for a pot of gold to be in front of me before I do anything. Then, I take it. Again if you dont believe me; try as hard as you can tomorrow to make as much money as possible and see what happens! Stop Trying to Remove or Control Emotions - Most traders who have been trading for a while come to the idea that emotions prevent them from success and are standing in their way. I know, as I have been there. And so we try as hard as we can to remove emotions from our trading. There is a problem with this concept. You are a human right? As long as you are human, you will have emotions; no matter how hard you try to remove them. It is simply not possible. So removing emotions or attempting to do so is the wrong approach. Instead; use your emotions to your advantage! They are warning signs; listen to them. Then there is the negative internal dialogue which the market often brings out. After a series of losing trades, many traders get upset and feel bad. They blame the market for taking from them, and feel like a loser. How do you think a trader will perform after feeling this way for a few days or longer? His performance suffers as he tries to take back what was once his and he compounds his mistakes by trading out of a negative mindset. You have to learn to recognize and become aware of your internal dialogue. It is very important to your trading career, and your every day life. Most of us live our lives without the slightest idea as to what we are doing to our selves. Your mental structure is a choice. This is what I mean when I say "The Market cannot hurt me, I can only hurt my Self." My Trading Psychology book "A Traders Mentality - The Path of Self Discovery and Being a Trader" is all about these ideas and how to free your mind and better your trading performance. If you found this helpful, please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
SP:SPX
by tradersmentality
Tired of Losing?"The Market cannot hurt Me. I can only hurt my Self!" - Josh Ridenour There is a Time for Losing - The 29th verse of the Tao Te Ching is about how there is a time for everything in life. A time for being ahead, a time for being behind. In the market, there is also a time for everything. A time for large profits, small profits, break even trades, losers, and consecutive losers which lead to a draw down. It is easy to get caught up in the heat of the moment depending on where you currently are. But it does not really matter what part of the cycle you are in, it is all part of a traders life and the cycle of a trading performance. Stop Predicting! It is a false belief to believe prices and markets can be predicted. If it were possible eventually the majority of market participants would figure it out and there would be no one left on the other side of the trade, and the market would cease to exist entirely. If it were possible to predict markets, you could avoid losing trades and only take winners. Anyone who has been trading for very long knows this is simply not the case. The problem with making predictions is you then shut your mind off from the information the market gives you. Instead of being open to what is happening, your mind becomes rigid and can only take in what confirms your beliefs. This prevents you from being able to flow with the market, and open your self to the opportunity in front of you. The best traders admit when they are wrong, get out, and even reverse if necessary. If you dont believe this - listen to a stock analyst on Mad Money or any other TV show about stocks. They are often so confident in what they say that they might even convince you! But there is a reason why he is on TV talking about markets, and not trading them. If he could trade the markets and make money he would have no reason to go on TV as the financial rewards are miles apart. In fact, analysts make the worst traders because they are so caught up in their thoughts and beliefs about market direction that they cannot trade effectively! Cease efforts "Wu Wei" In Eastern Philosophy there is a term "Wu Wei." It cannot be fully understood or explained in words, only experienced. At the essence of its meaning is to "Let be" to "allow" or "flow like water down a stream." The point is to stop resisting, and stop trying so hard. The harder you grasp at something, the harder you try to succeed, the more you fail. If you are constantly trying to make money, and constantly trading, you are probably not making a consistent return. Rather than trying so hard, let trading come naturally. Profitable trading is effortless. It does not require thought, only action. In fact, I try to do as little as possible, and trade as little as possible. My most profitable weeks I hardly trade at all! This has become a fundamental aspect of my trading system. Instead of constantly trying to make money all the time, I simply wait for a pot of gold to be in front of me before I do anything. Then, I take it. Again if you dont believe me; try as hard as you can tomorrow to make as much money as possible and see what happens! Stop Trying to Remove or Control Emotions - Most traders who have been trading for a while come to the idea that emotions prevent them from success and are standing in their way. I know, as I have been there. And so we try as hard as we can to remove emotions from our trading. There is a problem with this concept. You are a human right? As long as you are human, you will have emotions; no matter how hard you try to remove them. It is simply not possible. So removing emotions or attempting to do so is the wrong approach. Instead; use your emotions to your advantage! They are warning signs; listen to them. Then there is the negative internal dialogue which the market often brings out. After a series of losing trades, many traders get upset and feel bad. They blame the market for taking from them, and feel like a loser. How do you think a trader will perform after feeling this way for a few days or longer? His performance suffers as he tries to take back what was once his and he compounds his mistakes by trading out of a negative mindset. You have to learn to recognize and become aware of your internal dialogue. It is very important to your trading career, and your every day life. Most of us live our lives without the slightest idea as to what we are doing to our selves. Your mental structure is a choice. This is what I mean when I say "The Market cannot hurt me, I can only hurt my Self." My Trading Psychology book "A Traders Mentality - The Path of Self Discovery and Being a Trader" is all about these ideas and how to free your mind and better your trading performance. If you found this helpful, please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
Education
by tradersmentality
Strong Bulls, Weak Bears, Strong Bears, Weak BullsStrong Bulls are always looking to buy. Strong Bears are always looking to sell. Weak Bulls and Weak Bears are usually indecisive and wait until its too late, entering at the worst possible time. In general, Strong Bulls sell to Weak Bears, and Strong Bears buy from Weak Bulls. When both Strong Bulls and Strong Bears sell (strong bulls to take profits, and strong bears to initiate shorts), there is only one direction for the market to go. This is when leads to strong moves in the markets. When prices are in a strong bull trend Strong Bulls buy at any price, including a high price. This strong trend can be in the form of a spike or a tight bull channel . The Strong Bulls are aware prices are in a strong trend, and therefore are willing to buy high. This buying prevents a pullback and instead prices continue to rally. Strong bears see this and are not willing to sell yet, and so the lack of selling pressure creates a vacuum and also prevents a pullback. The same is true for Strong Bears in a strong bear trend. When prices are in a weaker bull trend, such as a broad bull channel , bulls who buy high tend to get trapped and are either forced to exit and buy lower, or scale into their position at a lower price. This is also refereed to as "averaging in to a position." When strong bulls see that bulls who buy high are getting trapped, they will only look to buy at a discount, or a pullback and will sell to take profits when prices reach near the highs. This is what feeds the bull channel , which is a form of a slanted trading range. When prices are in a trading range, both Strong Bulls and Strong Bears will only look to buy low and sell high. Most will also scale into their position if prices go against them, and they tend to take smaller profits like 1X risk. What about Weak Bulls and Weak Bears? Weak bulls and Weak bears tend to flip flop in their positions. In other words, they see a bear leg and assume prices are going lower and sell low in the bear leg, just before a rally begins. This is most obvious when prices are in some form of trading range or weak channel where there is heavy two sided trading. Weak bulls also buy high in a bull channel , or high in a trading range. They buy from strong bears who are selling high prices. They are then forced to exit or scale in, and contribute to the selling if they exit. Then when prices are near the bottom of the channel, they become convinced the market is now selling off, and sell low. This repeats over and over as they hope for a breakout and fail to realize what is occurring. A major key in learning to become a profitable trader is the ability to understand what the institutions (strong bulls and strong bears) are doing at any given time. This is how you follow "smart money." If you do not understand what prices are telling you; you are more likely to act as a Weak Bull and Weak Bear, and contribute to the market. To learn more about how to understand institutions and price tendencies, see below. If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
by tradersmentality
1
There are still people buying this ponzi scheme :oI thought every one figured out this was a blatant ponzi scheme. Insiders did make up fake partnerships. Insiders (cost basis of zero btw) did keep selling in plain sight. Incredible... They sure don't call it "dumb money" for nothing. From 3.50 to 0.0005 LOL! This will be hilarous. Probably bounces on the way down, but ultimate fate is ZERO. I see a big buy with no stop loss at sub 1 cent. Stop loss is zero, target is *10 or more. At minimum *5. When I say big I don't mean the position size but how I view the trade, as a "big one". No point having a stop loss, might as well hold bags. Risking 1 to make 10. No point trying to risk 0.5. This is how I see it. The lower it goes, as long as it does not go straight to zero, the harder it will bounce and go to 1 cent or more at least (even if it falls another 50%). If this scam gets banned by then or exit scams all at once the trade is invalidated. I have no interest in the 10 cents and 5 cents supports. Staying away.
POLONIEX:XRPUSD
by MrRenev
43
The ramblings of a wannabe trader #13"A good trader can hope but should not expect!" - TulpenFieber -What we Expected- When I was a child most nights were long and hard. It was rare that a night was quiet. It was rare that you were able to sleep enough to feel like a human being the next day. But occasionally it did happen. Every once in a while, there were no fires to put out. Every once in a while you didn’t have to wake up in the middle of the night and go hide in the bunker. All of us hoped for such a night. Knowing how rare they occurred, we developed a saying. "Expect the worst, hope for the best." If we expected a quiet night but didn’t get it, the next day was much more painful. The night longer than usual. The problem wasn’t external. The problem was the psychological obstacles we had to overcome due to the unmet expectation. -What it Means to Expect- Expectation is a “rigid clinging to unreal belief.” Expectation is demanding exactly what we want to happen regardless of what is actually happening. Expectation is typically fixed and frozen. It is inflexible and rigid. It is unable to give or to bend or to change. Sadly, expectations are limited to our previous experiences. We are unable to expect something that we haven’t seen before. We cannot expect something better than what we know. The worst part of expectations is what happens when we hold onto them. They infect and overwhelm us, like a virus. They consume us like the plague. We are unable to give them up. We are unable to let go. Expectation influences our behavior and attitudes. It affects how we see the world. And then how we respond to it. -What it Means to Hope- Hope on the other hand is much different. While expectation is the assumption that something is actually going to happen, false or not, hope is the wish for something to happen. Hope is flexible. It is alive. It responds to all situations instead of battling against the ones that appear to be opposite. Hope admits reality, always acknowledging what is, but never resigning itself to what is. Hope allows other to grow. It desires good for another, but gives them room to change over time. Hope is not limited by previous experience. We can hope for more than what we know. We can hope for something better. Our imaginations and dreams influence our hopes.´Since hope admits uncertainty, it does not die when it goes unmet. A hope deferred does not kill the soul. We may need to adjust our hopes, but we can always keep hoping. Hope helps us to keep moving forward. Hope fills us with life. -Unmet Expectations- What happens when our expectations go unmet? Expectation is so rigid, we always respond negatively. We become angry. And then we make an attempt to control. We try to force our expectations. We manipulate. We bribe. We shame. Expectation does not let us accept what we do not want. If we hold to a false expectation, a belief that it will be and should be different than it is, it will poison our perspective. It will negatively influence how we see a market and how we navigate it. When it does not live up to our hopes, we can keep hoping for it because hope is flexible. We may adjust our hopes based on what we learned. We may even let go of our hopes realizing they were too unrealistic. But we can always hope for it. As a wise man once said, “There is no such thing as a false hope.” BTC is hope!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TulpenFieber
The Hardest Part of Trading (Not what you Think)Seeking More information - When first introduced to markets, every beginner immediately thinks he must learn the rules of the market in order to succeed. He initially believes there is a "holy grail" a system, a leader, or a mathematical equation like Fibonacci levels. He believes these will protect him in the market, and will lead him to a profit once he understands them. The problem is, there are no set rules which work consistently in the market. If there were, the institutions and everyone else would simply use them. What would happen then? Well, there would be no one or institution to take the opposite trade, and the market would cease to exist altogether. And so the new trader changes from one system to another, from one guru to another, and constantly thinks he must learn more information in order to succeed. What he believes to be preventing his success is a lack of knowledge, a lack of information. But you see, the more information you have does not necessarily lead to better decisions. There is a lot of evidence to support the contrary, and suggests that too many choices actually impair decision making skills. On top of this, most of the information in the trading world is quite simply wrong. There are 10 x more scam artists who claim to "know" and will take your money to teach you how to trade than there are profitable traders. These people do not understand markets them selves, and cannot make money in the market, so instead they prey on new market entrants. This is the primary reason I started my trading website; to provide high value information at a low cost. And to give those who are serious about trading an actual chance to make it in the markets. Dealing with Uncertainty - The reason most traders seek new information is because they are afraid of uncertainty and want certainty. They seek something to protect them in the market. Something to protect them from themselves. A system that will guarantee a profit. But there is no such thing. Markets constantly change and evolve through the market cycle. And there is no system that works across all three parts of the market cycle. The sooner you realize this, the closer you will be to making a profit. It is very hard to learn how to deal with uncertainty. But you do it every day. When you wake up in the morning are you certain you will live through the end of the day? No, and you can never be completely certain of this. Certainty is an illusion. There is no certainty in this life. The only certainty is... uncertainty! Patience and Discipline (Ability to Do Nothing) - Every profitable trader uses these two terms (patience and discipline) when asked how they are profitable. When a beginner hears this, he rarely understands what this means. Discipline means doing something even when you dont want to do it, or doing something you dont want to do. Patience means waiting for your turn, or waiting for something to happen. In other words, when the time is not right you must do nothing. This stokes a fear in most people, especially in today's give me distractions, social media world. They say "Well what am i supposed to do if i am doing nothing?" Doing nothing seems contrary to getting what you want, getting somewhere. In and outside of the trading world everyone believes in order to be a "trader" you must trade - constantly. This is why most lose money. Because they do not understand that there is a time for doing nothing. And that time is most of the time! See more on understanding markets (Price Action Trading) and yourself (Trading Psychology) at my website below. If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
SP:SPXEducation
by tradersmentality
TSLA 60% Bull ProbabilityTSLA reversed up from a failed bear breakout and sell climax. The bulls have closed the exhaustion gap and created several potential breakout gaps around 200. The bulls now have a 60% chance of creating a second leg up and test of the middle of the upper trading range around 300. The bears need a strong breakout below the 180 higher low. The probability of this is 40%. Once prices get back into the 260-360 trading range, prices will once again return to a 50/50 directional probability. If the bulls continue to get strong consecutive closes, and the bears do not get any strong selling pressure, the probability will slightly favor the bulls for a test of the high of the range. To learn more about how to determine the directional probability and how to create a trade based on this, please see below. If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by tradersmentality
How to Trade to Win"Those who lose - trade not to lose. Those who are successful - trade to Win." Losing Vs Winning Most traders are more focused on not losing than they are on winning. Do you understand what this means? This means you are acting not in your best interest, but against your self. By focusing on how much you can or might lose, or on not losing, you increase the likelihood of making mistakes which ultimately lead to a losing traders equation, and a negative equity curve. Profitable traders do not care about losing. They understand it is part of winning. They focus on winning. What is the best move in this moment? Should I get out or continue to hold based on what the market is telling me? Winning traders accept the risk totally and completely; before getting into the trade. In other words, they have already lost what is on the line. Therefore they act in their own best interest, not based on their thoughts about what they could lose, but based on what the market is telling them to do in this moment. Other than this psychological difference, here are a few other key components on How to Trade To Win. Defined Edge - Every trader who is making money in the market has some form of edge which he employs. Even if his edge is purely intuitive. This is extreme and rare however, and most traders have clearly defined their edge and will only trade that edge. This removes randomness. Many beginners think they are going to study the market and be able to trade the market no matter what it is doing (trade intuitively). This is simply not the case for most. The purpose of studying the market is to identify opportunities in form of an edge. An edge is a setup or context which repeats itself over time. It might occur once a day, once a week, or once a month. It does not matter. All that matters is that you only trade your clearly defined edge, and leave the randomness behind. For more information, you can read about the edge I use in every market I trade. We also describe how you can develop your own edge, and trade it in any market. Stop Doing, Relax Efforts - If you are losing in the market, chances are you are doing too much. Many beginners, and even experienced traders think they must be trading in order to be a successful trader. This leads to random trading, over trading, and mistakes which compound themselves. You end up digging a hole, and instead of looking for a way out, you look for a different shovel. The harder you try to make a profit, the more you do, the more actions you make, and the more you lose. The market rewards those who are observant, disciplined, and most importantly patient. The market takes from those who try too hard, and do too much. If you dont believe me, try as hard as you can to make money, and see how you do! By relaxing your efforts, you relax your mind. In turn relax your actions and decision making. You do not have to trade every day to be a profitable trader. It sounds paradoxical doesn't it? How can I make money trading if I dont trade? By only trading when it is appropriate like when your edge is present, you better your odds of success. Profitable trading does not come from trading constantly. Profitable trading comes from the act of non-doing, and out of a state of emptiness. Profitable trading is effortless, it comes out of waiting for just the right moment before taking action. And then waiting some more while the market proves you right or wrong. Profitable trading is not forced; it just happens. Active VS Passive Trading - This is very similar to the previous topic. Active trading is a trader who is constantly in the market, trading whatever he see's or feels right. This trader is often wrong, and when he is right he makes the mistake of exiting too early due to fear. This leads to a negative traders equation as he continues to struggle to do the right thing. An Active Trader mentality is one which does not believe in "non-doing." He believes he must, and can, do something. He is afraid of missing out and is often swayed by thoughts and emotions. So he continues trading never looking back, and at the end of the month cannot figure out why his account is in the red. A Passive Trader is the opposite. He passes on more trades than he takes. He does not care about what he misses out on. He only cares about what he takes and the actions he makes in the market. He does not force trades, he just watches the market until he knows what to do. Or he waits and waits until his edge finally sets up. He is passive in his efforts, rather than active. He does not care if he doesn't trade today, this week, or even this month. Trading is not what is important to him; winning is. He knows that profits come from sitting, waiting. Because he is willing to wait, he is peaceful. And profits continue to come into his account, effortlessly. For more information on developing this type of mentality, see below. We also detail how to understand markets through price action, how to create, define, and employ an edge, and how to develop your traders mentality to succeed in markets. If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions
Education
by tradersmentality
Unethical trading representations (educational)This topic has not to my knowledge been covered on Tradingview before now. I specifically explore ' unethical trading representations' and explain in the limited time what that means as a concept. To be absolutely clear, I am not asserting that every paid-for service or representation is unethical or illegal. What I am saying is that new traders and the inexperienced are like 'fresh meat' for these schemes, that aim for a small percentage of them. The impact assessment - whether or not new traders pay for 'inner circle' access in these things, is of real importance. Nothing said in this post refers to any identifiable individual, group or entity. New traders especially need to be hyper-vigilant and cautious before parting with their money. But even if not parting with money, the potential negative impact is of importance. I declare a personal bias, that I have been stung by three of these early in my trading career.
Education
by Captain_Walker