Get started

Probability

The Ace Spectrum as a Template for Support ProjectionDemonstrating the big idea: That straight lines in log-space form exponential curves. This property of the log chart is useful for examining assets with exponential growth (like high-growth stocks, cryptos, etc). Because the log scale asymptotically approaches the absolute scale as y slice decreases, this indicator is really applicable to any time scale. This indicator samples a distribution of lines from the past and projects them into the future, these projected lines form indicators of prior support. The idea is longer support at those specific lines is indicative of support strength, which this indicator approximately captures. My initial goal was to capture this intuition about exponential growth in log spaces by applying a monte-carlo style sampling approach to visualize the latent support lines. After I had captured that in a slightly more complex version of this indicator, my goal was to distill the concept into the simplest possible implementation.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by sheganinans
15
AUDUSD: possible scenario 12.13.2020On the chart you can see a technical picture of AUDUSD, which in near-term may experience a pullback. For outside the market Aussie bulls the first entry level - in my opinion - can be somewhere around 0.74520, the second around 0.73790, etc. Don't forget, that proper risk management and volume calculations before getting an exposure in a certain asset is crucial. This is my personal view or analysis and should not be considered as a personal investment advice.
by GIgor_021
4
USDCAD: possible scenarioHello Traders! On the chart you can see my analysis of USDCAD pair... …in my opinion 1.29930-1.31460 price zone should be considered as an opportunity to open long position, as this is the zone where buyers might show some demand interest. Fundamentally speaking, yesterdays GDP numbers from China were worse than expected, risk-off on the equity markets and uncertainty regarding global oil demand should put some pressure on CAD against the greenback. The first take-profit target can be around 1.33320 price. // Don't forget to follow your personal risk-management rules before opening position. // Make sure you follow me for more upcoming ideas and feel free to share your opinion via comment. If you agree with my analysis support my work by hitting like.) // More info: link in bio ;) Contact me if you have any questions. // Risk disclaimer: This is not an investment advice and you should carefully consider whether trading is right for you in light of your particular circumstances and financial resources.
Long
by GIgor_021
S&P500: where to buy?Hello Traders! 3300 - 3410 price zone is the first, where bulls might step in and show some buying interest. If this is the case, the first take profit target is around 3500 level. Follow your personal risk-management rules before opening position. ^^ Make sure you follow me for more upcoming ideas and feel free to share your opinion via comment. If you agree with my analysis support my work by hitting like.) ^^ More info: link in bio ;) Contact me if you have any questions. ^^ Risk disclaimer: This is not an investment advice and you should carefully consider whether trading is right for you in light of your particular circumstances and financial resources.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by GIgor_021
5 Fundamental Truths of Trading:1. Anything can happen. Why? Because there are always unknown forces operating in every market at every moment , it takes only one trader somewhere in the world to negate the positive outcome of your edge. That's all: only one. Regardless of how much time, effort, or money you've invested in your analysis, from the market's perspective there are no exceptions to this truth. Any exceptions that may exist in your mind will be a source of conflict and potentially cause you to perceive market information as threatening. 2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money. Why? Because there is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. (See number 3.) In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. What you don't know is the sequence of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. 3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge If every loss puts you that much closer to a win, you will be looking forward to the next occurrence of your edge, ready and waiting to jump in without the slightest reservation or hesitation. On the other hand, if you still believe that trading is about analysis or about being right, then after a loss you will anticipate the occurrence of your next edge with trepidation, wondering if it's going to work. This, in turn, will cause you to start gathering evidence for or against the trade, so you will not be in the most conducive state of mind to produce consistent results . 4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another. Creating consistency requires that you completely accept that trading isn't about hoping, wondering, or gathering evidence one way or the other to determine if the next trade is going to work. The only evidence you need to gather is whether the variables you use to define an edge are present at any given moment. When you use "other" information, outside the parameters of your edge to decide whether you will take the trade, you are adding random variables to your trading regime. Adding random variables makes it extremely difficult, if not impossible, to determine what works and what doesn't. Gathering "other" evidence makes about as much sense as trying to determine whether the next flip of a coin will be heads, after the last ten flips came up tails. Regardless of what evidence you find to support heads coming up, there is still a 50-percent chance that the next flip will come up tails. If the market is offering you a legitimate edge,determine the risk and take the trade . 5. Every moment in the market is unique. Take a moment and think about the concept of uniqueness. No two moments in the external environment will ever exactly duplicate themselves . To do so,every atom or every molecule would have to be in the exact same position they were in some previous moment. Not a very likely possibility. Source: Mark Douglas - Trading in the zone
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by GIgor_021
5
MaMA : Momentum adjusted Moving AverageA brand new Moving Average , calculated using Momentum, Acceleration and Probability (Psychological Effect). Momentum adjusted Moving Average( MaMA ) is an indicator that measures Price Action by taking into consideration not only Price movements but also its Momentum, Acceleration and Probability. MaMA , provides faster responses comparing to the regular Moving Average Here is the math of the MaMA idea Momentum measures change in price over a specified time period momentum = source – source(length) where, source, indicates current bar’s price value source(length), indicates historical price value of length bars earlier Lets play with this formula and rewrite it by moving source(length) to other side of the equation source = source(length) + momentum to avoid confusion let’s call the source that we aim to predict as adjustedSource adjustedSource = source(length) + momentum looks nice the next value of source simply can be calculated by summing of historical value of the source value and value of the momentum. I wish it was so easy, the formula holds true only when the momentum is conserved/constant/steady but momentum move up or down with the price fluctuations (accelerating or decelerating) Let’s add acceleration effects on our formula, where acceleration is change in momentum for a given length. Then the formula will become as (skipped proof part of acceleration effects, you may google for further details) adjustedSource = source(length) + momentum + 1/2 * acceleration here again the formula holds true when the acceleration is constant and once again it is not the case for trading, acceleration also changes with the price fluctuations Then, how we can benefit from all of this, it has value yet requires additional approaches for better outcome Let’s simulate behaviour with some predictive approach such as using probability (also known as psychological effect), where probability is a measure for calculating the chances or the possibilities of the occurrence of a random event. As stated earlier above momentum and acceleration are changing with the price fluctuations, by using the probability approach we can add a predictive skill to determine the likelihood of momentum and acceleration changes (remember it is a predictive approach). With this approach, our equations can be expresses as follows adjustedSource = source(length) + momentum * probability adjustedSource = source(length) + ( momentum + 1/2 * acceleration ) * probability , with acceleration effect Finally, we plot MaMA with the new predicted source adjustedSource, applying acceleration effect is made settable by the used from the dialog box, default value is true. What to look for: • Trend Identification • Support and Resistance • Price Crossovers Recommended settings are applied as default settings, if you wish to change the length of the MaMA then you should also adjust length of Momentum (and/or Probability). For example for faster moving average such as 21 period it would be suggested to set momentum length to 13 Alternative usage, set moving average length to 1 and keep rest lengths with default values, it will produce a predictive price line based on momentum and probability. Experience acceleration factor by enabling and disabling it Conclusion MaMA provide an added level of confidence to a trading strategy and yet it is important to always be aware that it implements a predictive approach in a chaotic market use with caution just like with any indicator Trading success is all about following your trading strategy and the indicators should fit within your trading strategy, and not to be traded upon solely Disclaimer : The script is for informational and educational purposes only. Use of the script does not constitutes professional and/or financial advice. You alone the sole responsibility of evaluating the script output and risks associated with the use of the script. In exchange for using the script, you agree not to hold dgtrd TradingView user liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on use of the script
FX_IDC:XAUUSDEducation
by dgtrd
13
report by technical analystReport dispalyed with Technical Analyst study Who wants a Technical Analyst? The analyst will present a technical anlaysis report at a glance calculated by the most popular technical indicators, and the good part, the anlayst will do it voluntarily technical skills of the analyst: - experienced an all markets - ability to interpret moving averages - ability to interpret volume changes - ability to interpret trend folowing indicators such as: * directional movement index (dmi), identify trend strength and trend direction * complex ichimoku cloud , identify trend stregth, and tk crosses - ability to interpret oscillators such as: * relative strength index, identify oversold overbought levels, identify the rsi flow * commodity channel index, identify oversold overbought levels * awesome identify if grawing or falling * macd if bullish or bearish, and macd histogram if grawing or falling - ability to calculate probability and its trend non-stop hardworker, available 7/24, highly dedicated always on duty, open for new ideas and willing to learn upon request the analyst will create reports with custom settings of your choise the analyst is not a decition maker, trading success is all about following your trading strategy and the analyst aims to help with the presented reports calculated by the most popular technical indicators the analyst supports 9 of the popular technical indicators and is willing to learn more, please share your comments and feedbacks and help the analyst improve skills cheers!
Education
by dgtrd
8
stellar is getting ready Positive signals shows up Bounced from historical trend line (historical line was crossed a month ago and now the test passed) Bounced from ma100 and ma200 Bounced from Keltner Cannels lower cloud Probality calculated based on beyas theorem shows positive signs of bullish probable moves (still in bear area but increasing) p-macd, which calculates relationship between price and its MA as well as relationship between two MAs, heads up if price closes and remains above blue trend line than we may expect further moves up, be paitant we are still below 20ma
Long
by dgtrd
BNB ShortShort indication 1 : colored directional movment index on the top of the chart is yelow which indicates non-existend trend and the arrow points down which is showing that the negative direction is stronger. Short indication 2 : probability line as shown with bayes indicator is right at %50 level which is infact equilibrium of probable move up or down. But the slope is pointing down which could be indication of further move down. PS: Probablity line is calculated by taking on account BTCUSDT’s probable movements Short indication 3 : WaveTrend is signaling sell even if it is not a strong one Short indication 4 : Price Action below 20 period SMA Short indication 5 : elliott wave could be forming WXY and Y not completed yet
Short
by dgtrd
BEWARE PROBABLE VIOLENT PRICE MOVE - SPDR S&P 500 - SPY - DAILYWe have noticed that the market is up trending and whenever the price has evolved close to the blue line and the red doted up trend line, it was followed by very violent price change. Therefore, beware, as the price is at the moment evolving around the red dotted line. Besides, the price has shown also elastic movements, coming back again and again to its previous break points. Keep all those information in mind when evolving on this SPDR S&P 500 - SPY market.
AMEX:SPY
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas
1
BTC/USD : Short opportunity on Multi Time Frame** If you enjoy this idea please give us a like and a follow, we focus on High probability setup only** Hi guys ! Based on a multi time frame technical analysis , we think that BTC /USD is currently short. Confluence of : - Double EMA cross on MTF. - Double breakout and rejection of previous structure Based on our algorithm, there is more chance that the price goes down then up. The target is marked on the chart (fib extension -0.382) Please, let us know what you think of this idea. Thanks ! - Alex
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Foralex
4