Get started

Probability

Reality & FibonacciParallels between Schrödinger’s wave function and Fibonacci ratios in financial markets Just as the electron finds its position within the interference pattern, price respects Fibonacci levels due to their harmonic relationship with the market's fractal geometry. Interference Pattern ⚖️ Fibonacci Ratios In the double-slit experiment, particles including photons behave like a wave of probability, passing through slits and landing at specific points within the interference pattern . These points represent zones of higher probability where the electron is most likely to end up. Interference Pattern (Schrodinger's Wave Function) Similarly, Fractal-based Fibonacci ratios act as "nodes" or key zones where price is more likely to react. Here’s the remarkable connection: the peaks and troughs of the interference pattern align with Fibonacci ratios, such as 0.236, 0.382, 0.618, 0.786. These ratios emerge naturally from the mathematics of the wave function, dividing the interference pattern into predictable zones. The ratios act as nodes of resonance, marking areas where probabilities are highest or lowest—mirroring how Fibonacci levels act in financial markets. Application In markets, price action often behaves like a wave of probabilities, oscillating between levels of support and resistance. Just as an electron in the interference pattern is more likely to land at specific points, price reacts at Fibonacci levels due to their harmonic relationship with the broader market structure. This connection is why tools like Fibonacci retracements work so effectively: Fibonacci ratios predict price levels just as they predict the high-probability zones in the wave function. Timing: Market cycles follow wave-like behavior, with Fibonacci ratios dividing these cycles into phase zones. Indicators used in illustrations: Exponential Grid Fibonacci Time Periods Have you noticed Fibonacci ratios acting as critical levels in your trading? Share your insights in the comments below!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PEducation
by fract
18
USDCAD H1 - Stress-Free Clear Charts.Stress-Free Clear Charts. (Required 10 years in R&D.) In this layout, we see these indicators: (From top to bottom of the screen) -Angle: Shows the Angle of the Trend. -Bear&Bull Powers: Displays who are in Power, the Bulls or the Bears. -Strength: Shows the Strength of the Trend. -Template: Always clearly shows the direction and precisely where to open and close (where to flip position). We open at the beginning of the Trend and stay in all the way till the end, stress-free. Turns perfectly. -Performance: We see where to enter and close, the pullbacks and the performance. -Odds: Shows the Odds everywhere. -Probability: Shows the Probability all the way. -Compare Forex: We see the performance of each currency of the Pair on chart. Each line is one currency. USD in Red. CAD in White. When the USD is above the CAD, the USDCAD pair goes up. And vice versa, when the USD is below the CAD, the USDCAD pair goes down. The background color displays the intensity of the trend.
by ascension
Election Year Cycle & Stock Market Returns - VisualisedIn this chart, we're analysing the open value of the week the US election took place and comparing it to the open of the following election, showing the gain (or loss) in value between each election cycle. Historically we can see prices in the Dow Jones Industrials Index tend to appreciate the week the election is held. Only twice has the return between the cycles produced a negative return. Buying stocks on election day, 8 out of 10 times has yielded a profitable return between the election cycles. 80% of the time in the past 40 years returning a profit, has so far been a good strategy to take. The typical cycle starts with the election results, an immediate positive movement and continued growth before finishing positive. The Outliers 2000-2004 was the only year which ended negative without prices going higher than the election day. 2004-2008 increased 41.84% before ending negative. 2008-2012 began the cycle falling 30.62% before finishing positive. The names of presidents who won their respective elections is to visualise who had the presidential term during that specific cycle.
TVC:DJIEducation
by Mt.BFX
Probabilities in Play: Positioning for EURUSD ShortsEconomic Landscape Eurozone Challenges The Eurozone is experiencing sluggish growth, with some nations nearing recession. Persistent inflation pressures the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain tight monetary policy. U.S. Economic Strength The U.S. economy shows resilience, bolstered by strong job markets and consumer spending. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on interest rates supports a stronger dollar. Geopolitical Factors Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Eastern Europe, create uncertainty for the Euro. Trade Idea Given these fundamentals, my bearish outlook on EURUSD is supported by current global trends. I plan to utilize probability-based strategies to enter short positions. By analyzing key support and resistance levels, along with technical indicators, I aim to identify high-probability entry points for shorts. Happy trading, and may the probabilities be in your favor! 1W: 6H:
Short
by Jasminex1x2
1
Why TSLA Could Be Set to Rise: Key News and a Great Entry SetupTesla (TSLA) is in the spotlight right now, and several factors suggest a potential bullish trend in the stock next week: Strong Delivery Numbers: Tesla recently reported its Q2 2024 delivery figures, which exceeded many analysts' expectations. While the numbers were lower than last year's, they still indicate solid performance in a competitive EV market, with other automakers also experiencing growth. Upcoming Earnings Report: Tesla is scheduled to announce its Q2 2024 earnings on Tuesday. Analysts are forecasting revenue slightly above last year’s figures, with net income expected around $1.72 billion. Investors will be particularly interested in updates about Tesla's robotaxi plans, which have been postponed to October. This anticipation could drive excitement and boost the stock price. Market Recovery: Recently, TSLA experienced a drop of about 12.4% due to a global market sell-off. However, the stock has started to recover, and this volatility may present a buying opportunity, especially if the market stabilizes. High Probability Setup: According to technical analysis, there is a high probability setup that has already formed, indicating a favorable entry point for bullish trades. This technical signal, combined with the positive news and upcoming events, enhances the likelihood of a price increase. With these factors in play, including strong delivery numbers, an important earnings report, and a favorable technical setup, TSLA could see a bullish trend in the coming week. As always, be sure to conduct your own analysis and manage your risks before entering any trades. 6M: 3M: 1M: 2W: 1W: 3D: 2H: Entry
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Fractalyst
Trading with Confidence: Utilizing Probabilities in USD/DKKU.S. Economic Strength: The U.S. economy continues to demonstrate resilience, with robust job growth and steady GDP expansion. This economic strength supports a bullish outlook for the U.S. dollar against other currencies, including the Danish krone. Interest Rate Differentials: The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on maintaining higher interest rates to combat inflation contrasts with the more dovish approach of the Danish central bank. This interest rate disparity favors the USD over the DKK. Global Uncertainty: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties in various parts of the world are driving investors towards safe-haven currencies like the U.S. dollar, potentially boosting its value against the Danish krone. Trading Strategy To capitalize on this bullish bias for USD/DKK, I plan to utilize probability-based positioning for long entries. By combining these fundamental factors with a probability-based entry strategy, I aim to position myself effectively for potential movements in the USD/DKK pair. 12M: 1W: 3H:
Long
by Jasminex1x2
Stock feedback loopStock market is a adaptive system or a stock, with feedback loops (for inflow, outflow function). Where nobody knows the outcome or future, but feedbacks (corrections or resistance) gives tells (makes inflows or outflows). Without a common leader. Economists think in models (price is the result of supply-demand, or inflow-outflow) that helps to explain system behavior (short term moves), but models are just ideas to explain complex world (models work until they dont). System thinkers study the stock not aggregate behavior . Looking at markets trough perspective of "eco system" helps better understand the drivers or moving forces?
FOREXCOM:SPX500Education
by citsvar
Buy using probabilityThe way probability distribution works is most common the result - higher the result on the bell curve and rare events are on the bottom of curve. On strong markets, prices rarely ever sit still at pivotal levels like 200dma or high VIX. Here we also saw higher lows, market only had two directions (crash or bull). If you know how markets work (or the drivers) this was a high probability entry. Sometimes accumulating VIX points to pressure building up and steam is being taken out from markets? "Prices are result of Supply-Demand dynamics". I would argue that big players benefit from buying low and defending peaks (as they got nothing to lose). would argue they lose by not buying low. This is a theoretical idea to give you perspective on strategy?
SP:SPX
by citsvar
BTCUSD: The Rally Is Just Beginning, Probability Confirms6M: BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 3M: BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 1M: BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 2W: BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 1W: BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 3D: BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 1D: BITSTAMP:BTCUSD If you have any questions, need further clarification, or would like to share your own insights, feel free to leave a comment below! The information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you may lose some or all of your investment. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Fractalyst
Think in Probabilities Embracing Uncertainty Your Key To SuccessPicture this: You’re at your trading desk, eyes on the charts, heart pounding as the market swings unpredictably. Do you feel that fear creeping in? Now, imagine knowing that this unpredictability doesn’t have to scare you. Instead, it can be the key to your success. Let's dive into why thinking in probabilities and staying calm in the face of uncertainty can turn trading from a gamble into a calculated path to consistent success. Many traders struggle with uncertainty because they lack a solid, tested system. Trading randomly or without a proven strategy leads to anxiety and inconsistency. But once you have a reliable system that suits your lifestyle and mindset, and you fully understand your edge, you realize that while the outcome of each trade is random, the probabilities of your trading system will work out for you over time. The Role of Probabilities in Trading Trading isn’t about predicting the next big market move; it’s about understanding the odds and working them to your advantage. Each trade is a small part of a larger statistical framework, where the focus shifts from individual outcomes to the bigger picture. Why Is Learning To Think In Probabilities So Important For Trading Success? Reduces Emotional Bias : By thinking in probabilities, you understand that each trade is just one in a series of many. This helps reduce emotional reactions to individual losses or gains, such as revenge trading, doubling up on position sizing, or even smashing your new iPhone against the wall (been there, LOL). For example, if you know that your strategy wins 60% of the time, you won't be devastated by a single loss. You'll see it as part of the statistical outcome. Encourages Rational Decision-Making: Knowing your strategy has an actual edge helps you stick to your plan, even during losing streaks, and avoid impulsive decisions. To know your edge, you need to do plenty of backtesting and forward testing so you can gain confidence in the system. For instance, if you experience a string of losses, understanding that this is normal and statistically probable helps you remain disciplined and not deviate from your strategy. Builds Confidence in Your System : Confidence comes from knowing your strategy is backtested and has a proven edge over a large number of trades. This knowledge helps you stay disciplined and focused on executing your plan. For example, if your backtesting shows a positive expectancy over 1,000 trades, you can trust your system even when short-term results are unfavorable. Things That Have Helped Me Over the Years to Deal With the Uncertainty of Trading Finding or Developing a System/Strategy That Suits You : As humans, we are all different, and this is especially true in trading. Some people are happy to be in and out of the market fast (scalpers) and have the ability to make big decisions quickly under pressure. Others are slower thinkers and like to make decisions carefully, staying in the market for a longer period of time (swing traders). You need to find what you're best at and stick to it. If you have a busy life with work and family, maybe swing trading suits you. If you’re younger and not as busy, then perhaps scalping is your style. Playing Strategy Games and Games of Chance : This may not be something you've heard before, but I've met many traders, including myself, who have found that games like poker can really help your trading by teaching you to think in probabilities. Another game I love to play is chess, as it encourages you to think ahead, and I’ve found it has helped me in my trading over the years. Practicing Visualization : If you've ever read anything on the subconscious mind, you know it’s responsible for 95% of all your automatic behaviors, especially in trading. The subconscious doesn’t distinguish between what is real and what is imagined. This is why visualization is such a powerful tool to help you embrace market uncertainty. By visualizing yourself placing trades confidently, managing risks well, and handling outcomes calmly, you prepare your mind for real trading scenarios. This mental practice reinforces your belief in your system and prepares you for the market's ups and downs. Books That Helped Me Think in Probabilities Reading has been an invaluable part of my journey to understanding probabilities. Here are some books that have profoundly impacted my trading mindset: "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman This book helped me understand how cognitive biases affect decision-making and how to overcome them by thinking more strategically. "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Taleb's insights into the role of chance and randomness in our lives and the markets were eye-opening and changed how I view risk and probability. "Beat the Dealer" by Edward O. Thorp Although this book is about blackjack, Thorp’s exploration of probability and statistics offers valuable lessons for trading. "The Theory of Poker" by David Sklansky Sklansky breaks down the mathematics of poker, showing how to make decisions based on probability, a skill directly applicable to trading. "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham This classic on value investing emphasizes the importance of long-term thinking and understanding market probabilities. "A Man for All Markets" by Edward O. Thorp This autobiography offers a fascinating look at how Thorp applied probability theory to beat the casino and the stock market. "Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind" by Yuval Noah Harari Harari’s book provides context on human behavior and decision-making, offering insights into the psychological elements of trading. "The Signal and the Noise" by Nate Silver Silver’s exploration of how we can better understand predictions and probabilities is highly relevant to making informed trading decisions. "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction" by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan M. Gardner This book teaches how to improve forecasting skills through careful analysis and thinking in probabilities. Thinking in probabilities was a game-changer for me. It shifted my focus from trying to predict every market move to playing the long game. By embracing this mindset, I turned fear into confidence and uncertainty into strategy. Remember, trading isn’t about guessing the market. It’s about responding with a clear, composed mind. Trust your strategy, know your edge, and let the probabilities work in your favor. This approach transformed my trading journey, and it can do the same for you. Happy trading!
Education
by TheFxAce
13
Maximum Hypothesis TestI still believe Tesla is a great company with a lot of future ahead. However, seeing how aggressive price action has been lately, it would be wise to consider taking some profits. This would allow for the trade to keep going, and the previous winning trades will have room to grow into strong investments. It's unlikely that price will continue to uptrend in this manner, but it's great to finally see some life signs out of this company. I'm sure their future will be bright, but as of now we must stay realistic and expect price to uptrend in a normal manner and not in a bubble like form. I believe it would be best to lay back and wait for more buying opportunities and look to dollar cost average the dip. If price does keep increasing then the unliquidated stocks should keep capturing returns and if it drops then dollar cost averaging would create a great scenario for catching a possible long term uptrend.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by DarkMessiah777
Does Fibonacci Really Work?It's hard to understand how the Fibonacci sequence presents itself in price action. I remember I used to think it was nothing more than lines drawn in a chart in a fancy manner. However, as I began to learn about probability distributions, I began to understand where the sequence reared its head into price action. Although I don't fully comprehend the theory behind the Fibonacci retracement, I did find a mathematical demonstration that proves price action and this sequence are related. You can find the demonstration in the link below. I'm unsure, but I believe this is peer-reviewed. www.researchgate.net However, you will notice that this approach is extremely different to the Fibonacci retracement. They look nothing alike. However, it's an interesting concept which could Shead light into understanding the fractal that governs price action. One of which is the Sierpinski triangle So does the Fibonacci retracement actually work? Well I don't know, but there is only one way to find out, so lets try it
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by DarkMessiah777
Odds and Psychology.Based on "Think fast and slow", people have two system thinking. System-1 is autonomous, always working in background (ie unconsciousness), lazy, intuitive, fast, has stereotypes. System-2 is rational, hard problem solving, takes effort and energy, cuts trough the BS, etc (ie consciousness). Based on another book called "superforcasters" and some dude I forgot his name, best approach for odds is to have simple system; where 100% certain. 93% almost certain. 75% probable. 50% about even (or maybe). 25% probably not. 7% almost certainly not. 0% impossible. All forecast are subjective guesses. The catch; If you think something is 100% - you would go allin with max lever. (If you dont) your beliefs or opinion go against your actions. If you dont believe it's wise to go allin - then odds are not actually 100%. If you are stressed about 93% spot, then maybe it might not be 93% after all. (1:14). In key SPX areas, based on business cycle and TNX, logic says one odds (or System-2) and your intuition (or feel) says differently. You are either too bearish or too bullish. This is a simple representation of concept. Another key concept is that TIME <----> PROBABILITY are at opposite sides of coin. The closer or far away in time something - more or less risk, ie higher or lower probability.
SP:SPXEducation
by citsvar
SOLUSD: Snapping Back to $210 | 70.70% Probability!BINANCE:SOLUSD has been drawing a lot of attention in the crypto space in the past few days due to its integration with NASDAQ:PYPL Let's have a technical analysis breakdown: BINANCE:SOLUSD According to my Free Probability Indicator , There's a 70.00% chance it could climb back over $210 and beyond, which is pretty much encouraging! If you're thinking about trading LINK, here's what you should consider: Entry: Wait for clear signs that the price is going up again. Once you're confident the trend is changing, consider buying LINK. I'm currently looking at the 8H Equilibrium to get positioned. Exit: To protect yourself from drawdowns, consider setting a "trailing stop-loss." This will automatically trigger a sell order if the price starts dropping again after you buy, securing your running profits. Risk Management: Ensure you're not risking more money than you can afford to lose. Only invest what you're comfortable with and consider how much you're willing to lose if things don't go as planned. This isn't financial advice, just some insights to help you make informed decisions. Always do your own research before investing in anything.
BINANCE:SOLUSDLong
by Fractalyst
1
DXY showing its hand - possible bullish move for the DollarOn the daily chart, market structure was broken towards the upside and we had multiple higher lows formed on DXY. We can also see that DXY is currently holding an area of support. Based off of pure price action, we can expect a potential move to the upside. Two easy targets are outlined but price can go as high as the third target. It is important to remember that a higher timeframe idea like this can take a long time to play out. Also, keep in mind that market sentiment can change at any moment based off of economic news drivers and geopolitical events however, If I had to pick a direction for DXY right now, I would pick higher prices.
TVC:DXYLong
by th3gunn3r22
BTC.D probabilityhi everybody dominance in daily time frame is still ranging in that yellow static channel I drew before . after a fake break out from static channel it just hit the green bullish channel top and bounce down. I have indicated everything that happens before in my previous ideas you can check them all. now it's struggling with static channel ( yellow ) midline. if candles could handle to break it down: the next target would be the bottom of the green channel if candles could break fork midline to up: the next target could be about the top of the green channel or next level ( green line ) of the fork. time will show us every thing the important thing is whether it goes up or down almost all the altcoins will affect in extra times . so be careful and save some of your profits be happy
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by ZorgOros
What do you do when your trading plan fails? Yesterday I wrote about a beautiful chart pattern that was forming on the Bitcoin daily time frame that ended up failing not long after I wrote the post. That kind of thing will shake a trader to their core, especially if they thought it was going to play out, but ended up losing their shirt. This is why it is important to set stop losses, so that if the trade does go the other way, you will be out of the trade before it gets too bad. This is simply called risk management, and is one of the biggest things that any trader, especially new traders need to master. Trading is a business of statistics and probabilities. Just because something has worked for you in the past, doesn't mean it is going to work for you every time. So when something like a bullish pattern that you have traded many times fails, you have to reassess and move on to the next trade. Out of 100 trades, that pattern may only work 6 or 7 times which gives you a 60-70% chance of it working in your favor. That's how it works, nothing is ever 100% in this game. So you always have to be ready for things to not work out the way you think they should. If they don't work out, don't freak out! Just learn from your mistakes, readjust your plan, and move along to the next trade! Hopefully things like this will help you better understand the importance of a good risk management plan. Be safe out there everyone and trade logically!
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by thelogicaldude
How we have been trading EURUSD D1How we have been trading EURUSD D1 (Daily chart) with our indicators + hand-drawn trend lines. After 10 years of R&D (we have been testing different indicators every day for a decade), we have developed our own Suite of 26 indicators. Here are just a few of them. Indicators names (from top to bottom): - Strength Shows the strength of the market, the direction, pullbacks, equilibrium, and flats. - Bear&Bull Powers Shows the battle between the bears and the bulls. - Angle Indicates the direction and angle of the trend and the pullbacks. - Template Our main central indicator simplifying charts and bringing clarity. - Steepness Displays how steep the trend is and comments: Going Up/Down | Trending | Strong/Weak | Pulling Back | Retracement | Flat | 75% Blue Background | ... - Odds 11 indicators calculating the odds. - Probability 75 indicators calculating the probabilities.
by ascension