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$RIVN - Ready to Make New LowsEarnings were not kind to $LCID. Lucid Group cut its car production forecast for this year by as much as 40%. The company cited supply chain constraints and parts quality issues for slashing production to between 12,000 and 14,000 vehicles, down from initial expectations of 20,000. “This reflects the extraordinary supply chain and logistics challenges we’ve encountered and our unrelenting focus on delivering the highest-quality products,” Lucid CEO Peter Rawlinson said in a statement. “We remain confident in our ability to capture the tremendous opportunities ahead given our technology leadership and strong demand for our cars.” It hasn't been much different for car companies across the world, EV or not. This brings us to RIVN. A stock that has been cratering from its highs earlier this year. They report earnings on March 10th. The same day CPI is released. Talk about a double whammy. Supply chain constraints remain and I expect RIVN to guide in a very similar manner to LCID. They are both in the early innings of their life cycle as companies and not as well equipped to handle inflationary and supply risks like the seasoned TSLA. Until this point I had not even mentioned the tremendous chip shortage. Expect RIVN to only make new lows from here on out with this inverted cup and handle setup as noted above.
NASDAQ:RIVNShort
by jaykenneyTRT
5
$VIX - Consolidating Toward an Obvious CatalystLong before Putin rolled his tanks and 180k troops into the independent and democratic nation of Ukraine, there were rightful concerns about inflation and its effect on the US economy. The war in Eastern Europe has served as a convenient distraction for us while we laugh off Jerome Powell's 'transitory' inflation comments. There have been some indications that inflation was beginning to ease. Economists have largely argued that the economy is healthy- but the Fed was behind on hiking rates. This was put on the back burner as Putin makes grave errors in Ukraine. Now we are already sneaking up on CPI data release again. The fed chairs have been arguing back and forth between a .25 and .50 hike for over a month. Powell said just yesterday he is leaning toward .25 but left the door open to .50 if the data supports it. The last CPI was higher in the wrong direction - and the market didn't like it. Over the 12 months from January 2021 to January 2022, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 7.5 percent. This was the largest 12-month increase since the 12-month period ending February 1982. Food prices increased 7.0 percent over the past year, while energy prices rose 27.0 percent. Prices for food at home rose 7.4 percent over the last 12 months. All of the six major grocery store food groups increased over the period. By far the largest increase was that of meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, which rose 12.2 percent over the year. Prices for dairy and related products increased 3.1 percent, the smallest 12-month increase among in the food at home category. Prices for food away from home rose 6.4 percent over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since January 1982. Within the energy category, gasoline prices rose 40.0 percent over the last year, despite declining in January. Prices for natural gas rose 23.9 percent over the last 12 months, and prices for electricity rose 10.7 percent. Prices for all items less food and energy index rose 6.0 percent, the largest 12-month change since the period ending August 1982. Within this grouping, prices for shelter increased 4.4 percent over the past year, prices for medical care services were up 2.7 percent, and prices for transportation services increased 5.6 percent. So where does this leave us now? With a lot of questions and uncertainty. Which is what the market likes the least out of all things. The VIX has been making lower highs and higher lows for several days and the triangle above suggests a collision path right smack dab on March 10th. How will the war affect the consumer price index? This remains to be seen. One can assume only more supply chain disruptions and some added inflation in certain parts of the economy. A short reminder on what CPI is from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. The CPI reflects spending patterns for each of two population groups: all urban consumers and urban wage earners and clerical workers. The all urban consumer group represents about 93 percent of the total U.S. population. It is based on the expenditures of almost all residents of urban or metropolitan areas, including professionals, the self-employed, the poor, the unemployed, and retired people, as well as urban wage earners and clerical workers. Not included in the CPI are the spending patterns of people living in rural nonmetropolitan areas, farming families, people in the Armed Forces, and those in institutions, such as prisons and mental hospitals. Consumer inflation for all urban consumers is measured by two indexes, namely, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)
TVC:VIX
by jaykenneyTRT
2
Does Crypto Support Actually Equate to Pro-Putin Support?Guys, we have to be very careful discerning what is meant when our government encourages still more regulation. And who are actually the terrorist? Will all crypto holders who oppose the type of regulation that is being proposed suddenly become the terrorist or Putin sympathizers? If regulation proposals are left unchecked and unchallenged, this very well could become the end result. Be careful to understand what is being intended through subtle implication and nuance of language here. These types of statements should NEVER go unquestioned and unchallenged!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
AUDUSD 2H TA : 03.02.22 : BearishAs you can see the price returned to it's bearish OB zone and reacted negatively ... I ecpect the price to fall more and reach to its bearish targets . First target is 0.7205 and second target will be 0.7175 ! Follow us for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅02.Mar.22 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - NFP!This is our view for NFP today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. We’re going to start with what we mentioned in the KOG report on Sunday where we said we would be looking for support during the course of the week and then for the price to push up towards the higher resistance levels where we would be looking to short the market. During the course of the week we hope you can see we’ve kept members in the right way of the market even though our bias is bearish on Gold. So lets look at what the market has done in preparation for NFP. As we’ve said they will swoop the low for liquidity before bringing it back up towards the 1810-12 level and settle the price for the release. This has all happened this week! Now looking at the chart we can see we’re settling above previous supply which would suggest the price can target the higher resistance levels. The KOG report suggest the 1808-12 level for the first short 1820 and the 1824-7 level for the next attempt at the short trade. For NFP we’ll give you two scenarios. Scenario 1: If the price comes down to hit the 1804-6 support level and finds support this could represent a good opportunity to long the market in to the immediate resistance levels above of 1816, 1820-22 and above that 1827-32. Please note, if there is no support at the mentioned level its likely we will continue down testing and potentially breaking the 1797-5 support region. A strong resistance at the levels above however could be an opportunity to short the market back down into the lower support regions and potentially lower. We have a KOG target of 1770 which we wanted to see achieved this week but we’re not holding out for it, especially during an event like NFP! Level to level trading please. Scenario 2: If the price pushes down from here we will be looking at the lower support regions of 1777 and below that 1770. We’re not interested in the 1797-5 level as support anymore and would rather miss the opportunity to long the market at that levels. We feel the lower support regions will represent a good opportunity to long the market but only into the immediate resistance level above which would be 1785 and above the 1795-7. Hope this helps members. Even with our bearish view on Gold we’ve managed to keep you in the right direction as always, taking shorts and longs this week into the levels and targets we’ve mentioned. We would like to see how this NFP plays out and where the market closes today to confirm our view for the rest of the month of February. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
15
Euro rattled as Fed sends hawkish messageWhat started off as a calm week has turned into a rout. The euro is down 0.83% in the North American session and has fallen into 1.11 territory for the first time since June 2020. The currency has taken a nasty spill this week, falling a massive 1.73%. The markets are still buzzing over the hawkish Fed meeting, which has overshadowed today's stellar US GDP report. GDP for Q4 expanded by 6.9%, exceeding the consensus of 5.5% and up from 2.3% in Q3. The GDP Price Index came in at 7.0%, beating the forecast of 6.0%. The stellar data points to a strong US economy despite the Omicron wave and has contributed to the US dollar's rally. The Fed had a hawkish message for the markets, sending equities lower but boosting the US dollar. Fed Chair Powell was careful not to get pinned down on a timeline for rate hikes, although the markets are betting on a  March lift-off. According to CME FedWatch, the likelihood of a 25-bps hike stands at 83%, with a 50-bps move increasing to 16%. The Fed was also vague about a date for reducing the balance sheet, with the FOMC statement noting that the reduction would start after the benchmark rate is increased. Powell sounded hawkish during his press conference after the meeting, and as a result, equities were falling and US Treasury yields were rising as he was talking. Powell said that inflation risks remain to the upside in his view, and there is a risk that high inflation will be prolonged and could move even higher. The 10-year yield rose to 1.83% and moved slightly higher today before retreating. Powell has been walking a tightrope, trying to assure markets that the Fed will bring inflation back below 2%, without being overly aggressive in tightening, which could cause a recession. Based on the panicky reaction from the financial markets after the Fed meeting, the Fed Chair has more work to do in reassuring the markets that the Fed is on the right path. EUR/USD continues to break below support lines and is testing below 1.1226. Below, there is support at 1.1152 There is resistance at 1.1359 and 1.1418
by OANDA
Powell Pushes Up the DollarThe Fed left its policy settings unchanged following its January policy meeting as expected. While responding to questions from the press, FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell noted that there was "quite a bit of room" to raise the policy rate without hurting the labour market. Powell further added that inflation has gotten worse since the December meeting and reaffirmed that the committee was in favour of hiking the policy rate in March "assuming that the conditions are appropriate for doing so." On the 11th January 2022 I highlighted the potential bull flag on the US Dollar Index. This is what I wrote: ‘Being able to identify some basic technical analysis patterns can really help in your trading decision making. A bull flag suggests the break, as the name implies, should be to the topside. Patterns can help you decide whether to maintain a long position and just as importantly when to add to it. A close above the top of the flag will complete it and the ‘flagpole’ will give you an upside measurement or target for your trade. On this example a close above 97.00 would complete the flag pattern and offer an upside measurement to 100.00 +.’ Having seen a strong rebound from the 20-week ma at 95.07 2-weeks ago, my opinion remains in play and this bull flag looks ready to break higher…trade accordingly. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
ICEUS:DX1!Long
by The_STA
1
Current inflation has nothing to do with the FedWith the most anticipated FOMC announcement in a long time coming tomorrow I'm throwing out my prediction: the Fed will be surprisingly patient with their tapering. This chart shows a few reasons why: 1. M2 growth does not have anywhere close to the same effect as it did on inflation in 1970. From the 3 decades 1970-2000 the CPI Growth/M2 growth was in the range of 0.65-0.75. Something happened in the next decade that broke this ratio down where it has been declining ever since - QE. Quantitative easing allowed the Fed to flood bank reserves into the system to protect from a liquidity crisis. This is what people refer to as "printing money" but in reality it that money is not being injected into the real economy. Banks reserves need to get loaned out and circulated in the economy to have an effect on inflation and this appetite for loans is not something their QE controls. Lower rates may have a limited affect but the majority comes from aggregate demand factors that are difficult to control. The second chart shows the first derivate of CPI/M2 over a 12 month period. Comparing the levels in the 1970s to our current period should make it clear we are not seeing even close to the same effects on CPI that we did then. We are still in an era more similar to 2010-2020 than 1970-1980 and the Fed doesn't even need to stop purchases to see the growth rate slow. 2. The dollar has not has barely been effected and already looks to have bottomed. The last chart shows how drastically the dollar index plunged in the two CPI spikes of the 1970s. This preluded the actual CPI numbers which is intuitive - the dollar plunging takes time to actually reach the consumer. This current cycle we haven't seen anything close to that. The dollar has held steady and is relatively unchanged since 2014. The dollar is not seeing a massive decline relative to other currencies like we did in the 1970s. 3. Supply issues have clearly had an effect on CPI It's not a surprise that Covid severely damaged the worlds supply chains. Pretty much every earnings call from a company that is exposed to the global supply chain mentions this. The New York Fed has a gauge here if you want to see for yourself. Luckily, it seems to be peaking but we are not sure of that yet. In summary, the inflation numbers we've seen are likely not being caused by monetary policy and the Fed knows this. Supply pressures look like they are starting to ease but we are not out of the woods. A drastic measure by the Fed may not even work to stop the inflation if my my assumptions are correct and it would induce a much more damaging stagflation. I predict the Fed is extremely cautious with their moves and we will not see anything drastic in tomorrows statement.
INDEX:DXYLong
by Seth-Goldberg
Some Indicators you can utilize to help evaluate this market(2:00) Dollar broke above a bull triangle (2:43) SNP Chart - Gap fills on the 1hr/4hr (5:36) Nasdaq and DOW gap fills (6:20) Sell volume capitulation on the QQQ? (7:38) VIX fear spike - 7 days in a row (8:39) Bitcoin chart - do we have confirmation that the buyers are back? (10:54) A new experience for me on the charts (12:05) Huge resistance ahead for Bitcoin! (12:40) Over 40% of short term hodlers with NUP! (13:23) Could this be another V-shaped recovery? (14:00) BTC dominance has hit resistance (14:30) How to measure data (15:26) VMC Cipher B indicators (16:09) Previous Death Cross time frames and price action (17:45) Will Feb. 13-14th be our final bearish moment? (18:20) Some of the negatives that we still need to account for (19:22) $35,837 is our line in the sand. Or is it?
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
Oil is climbing the stairway to Heaven. We are in an interesting world where price signals are all over the place due to the manipulation of markets by governments. With inflation driving the market it would seem realistic for oil to break out into a new high. The question is, do we have a massive market sell-off that drives many asset prices down as the acts like the 12-year-old threatening to run away from home? Do they actually do it? Is it all talk? Only time will tell but be watching for a pivot back to QE or fewer rate hikes in the future. We all know that there are elections coming up the FED is likely to be put in place in order to make things go as smoothly as possible. The purple box is a nearby resistance zone and the red line is heavy top resistance. We have been playing XLE for quite some time with incredible returns and a good dividend. Fed: " But MOM! You said we can play outside until the street lights come on!"
TVC:USOILLong
by DefyingFinance
1
Is this the last dump? A simple fractal analysisThe stock market reacted positively to the latest info from the FED today, this lines up well this current rounded bottom formation. This rounded bottom looks strikingly familiar to the previous step-down pattern, using a fractal we can see a possible dump lower which would bring us into a high-demand zone (36k-37k) and give a possibility of squeezing these shorts out for a final wave. This pattern would indicate a larger rally coming tomorrow before rejection. One way or another, leverage must be reduced to move up or down and I believe that like the last large correction we must move lower for a stronger bounce if we want to have a meaningful year of profits. Long Entry: 40 750 SL: 40 000 Target: 45 300 NFA, my personal trade opinion
Long
by cryptochatter
4
Japanese yen keeps rollingThe Japanese yen has extended its gains as USD/JPY trades at a 3-week low. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 114.25, down 0.35% on the day. Will the yen break into 113-territory before the end of the week? The Japanese yen has jumped onto the currency bandwagon this week, taking advantage of a US dollar in retreat. USD/JPY has dropped 1.11% this week, as the safe-haven yen has joined riskier assets such as the Australian and Canadian dollars and made sharp inroad against the greenback. It has been a rough January for the yen, which has lost ground as US Treasury yields have shown a monster spike since the start of the year. However, the yield rally has run out of steam this week, with 10-year yields holding steady at 1.73%. This has allowed the yen to recover some of the sharp losses seen in  January. The yen is very sensitive to the US/Japan rate differential, and if US yields resume their upswing, we can expect USD/JPY to rise as well. The US dollar remains in retreat mode, which is somewhat surprising, considering recent economic data. Nonfarm payrolls came in at 199 thousand, well short of the consensus of 425 thousand. This was followed by a 7% CPI release, which was even higher than the previous reading of 6.8%. Both of these events should have given the US dollar a boost, but investors remain in a risk-on mood and are supportive of the other major currencies. The markets were soothed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony in Capitol Hill that red-hot inflation would ease during 2022. In short, the markets have a healthy risk appetite and do not seem concerned by the hawkish pivot from the Fed as it moves towards a normalization of policy. Still, risk sentiment can change quickly and we could see the US dollar rebound if inflation moves even higher or if Omicron causes more economic damage than anticipated. USD/JPY faces resistance at 116.29. Above, there is resistance at 117.02, which has held since January 2017 There is support at 114.89 and 114.22
by OANDA
XAUUSD Daily TA : 01.12.22 : $GOLDXAUUSD is stabilizing around the $ 1816 range. Gold remains sensitive to fluctuations in US10Y . If the price does not break the important dynamic resistance of $ 1825, we can expect a further correction from the price, today's news will be effective as well. Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 12.Jan.22 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
4
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsUSD – The dollar edged lower on Tuesday after Fed Chair Powell’s testimony signaled that while the Fed will be normalizing policy, it has not made a decision on reducing its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet. Commenting on Powell’s testimony, Cambridge Global Payments noted that “Powell defied the hawkish commentary of others on the Fed’s rate-setting committee, suggesting that a quantitative tightening decision will come in the next two to four meetings, with bonds allowed to roll off in an organic manner – as opposed to actively selling securities into the market. This is lifting global risk appetite and spurring flows into yield sensitive currencies like the Canadian dollar.”
TVC:DXY
by thunderpips
2
Gold's Yearly Outlook 2022Hi guys, Welcome to 2022, the year where gold will make new all time highs. But (there is always a but) not before all bulls will be flushed out and the whole market will start turning bearish. There will be no free lunch and prices of below 1680 are possible. The bears set the tone for Q1 and they treated us with a strong engulfing bearish candle on the 1st trading week of the year. ⚠️ Start of new rate hike cycle This year is a special year because it is expected that the FED will start a new hiking cycle in March 2022. Until that time, gold will remain in the claws of the bears and under strong selling pressure. The most important day to write in your calendar is ofcourse January 26th, as Uncle Powell will treat us with a new monetary fireworks show. This FOMC meeting will be extremely important as Powell will reveal to the market when the first rate hike will happen and if the tapering will be accelerated again just like in the December meeting. 🐻 Bearish environment for Precious Metals This is obviously a bearish environment for gold, since the strongest driver for gold is monetary policy (especially the FED's). I am expecting to see around $1725 near or after the next FOMC-meeting. From that point we need to listen carefully to what the FED will tell the market. The market is pricing in a rate hike as early as March, immediately after the end of tapering. If Powell hints on a rate hike in March, gold will remain bearish until March and I am expecting to hit 1650-1675 by then. 💎 The Golden Magic But then the magic happens. At a certain point the market will realise that there is no more cheap money. They actually now have to pay interest on their borrowed money. Which means plunging stocks, cryptos, commodities, you name it. And that is when gold will shine, as gold is an anti-cyclic asset. If we may believe history, every new rate hike cycle was followed by a strong recession. Lucky for goldtraders, that is an environment where gold feels very comfortable. Recessions, war, conflict, pandemics etc are another strong driver for gold. I expect gold will turn mega bullish by summer 2022 and I am aiming for $2000 before end of this year. But not before 1650-1675 and not before the first rate hike. ❌ No rate hike scenario If Powell surprises the market and not reveal plans for any rate hike in March, gold can jump to 1850 until the next FOMC in March with a possible test of 1900. This is a scenario that we need to take into account, and also technically still possible. 🔮 Cesaro's Crystal Ball For the coming weeks leading up to 26th of January, I am expecting to see the 1775 horizontal support to be tested with a wick. From there we are most likely going to be ranging in a bearflag formation between 1775-1815, where the market will wait for the fundamental trigger to breakdown the bearflag towards 1725 or invalidate it and bulls move the price back to 1850. For now all shorts need to have SL's above the most recent lower high 1832. Cheers, Cesaro
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by CesaroPelucci
6
XAGUSD Daily TA : 12.22.21 As you can see, in the last few days, the price has reacted positively by reaching the important static support range, and since then it has grown more than 1300 pips. We expect the price to continue to grow and reaching to $23.175 , $23.726 and $24.2 in the mid-term. (Important condition for uptrend : closing price above $ 22.87) . Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 22.DEC.2021 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
4