EURUSD Multi Timeframe Analysis 16.10.202415m Swing Bearish Internal and Fractal Bullish
Price recently swept Asia High so we might see bearish momentum to continue
If you would like to look for longs after sweeping old daily low ( 1.08814 ) and follow 15m internal bullish order flow, demand marked on the chart. But waiting for a 15m candle closure above 15m Swing Strong to make sure that the swing structure switched to Bullish is ideal.
We have now 4H bullish ChoCH after sweeping the low, indicates that 4H pullback might be started.
Pivot Points
$BTC UPDATEThe way yesterday's daily candle closure got me thinking. Closing as a bearish daily candle would have met my expectations for a strong bearish movement, but on a daily basis, CRYPTOCAP:BTC is still bullish but we are currently in Daily Supply range.
Yesterday we had 4H strong liquidation in Daily Supply + Strong Bearish momentum
The high 67.986 might get swept, then we might get a bearish momentum to look for confirmation shorts
OR
15m Supply in this 4H candle might hold and push the price to the 4H fractal low ( 64.773 )
I personally think that price will push higher to sweep the high but it is risky to take any trades before price showing its hand
USD/CAD Hits 1-Month High, Bullish Continuation ExpectedHello,
FX:USDCAD pair has experienced a significant rise, reaching a new one-month high at 1.38387. Further bullish movement is anticipated, with the expectation of continued upward momentum if the price can break and hold above this recent high. Current data and market sentiment support the likelihood of this continuation.
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USD/CAD Hits 1-Month High, Bullish Continuation ExpectedHello,
FX:USDCAD pair has experienced a significant rise, reaching a new one-month high at 1.38387. Further bullish movement is anticipated, with the expectation of continued upward momentum if the price can break and hold above this recent high. Current data and market sentiment support the likelihood of this continuation.
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NZD/USD Nears Key Support, Swing Trade PotentialHello,
OANDA:NZDUSD has experienced further downside pressure and is now approaching the 1-month low of 0.605265. The 6-month low stands at 0.58497, while the 1-year low is at 0.577335. With the current bearish momentum, it seems likely this trend will continue. However, it's important to note that we're nearing a significant 1-year support level at 0.589779, which could play a critical role moving forward. Another key support level to watch is at 0.604296. Buyers are optimistic that a swing trade opportunity may soon arise, provided these support levels hold firm.
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AUD/USD Hits One-Month Low: Key Support Levels to WatchHello,
The OANDA:AUDUSD is currently at a one-month low of 0.669565, and further declines are anticipated since the one-year pivot point did not hold as support. Key support levels to watch include 0.673194, 0.665057, 0.656921, and 0.632512. However, we still need to assess how the strong support levels for the one-week and one-day periods perform.
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GBP/USD: Key Levels for Upside and Downside MovementHello,
FX:GBPUSD must cross and establish a lock above 1.313091 to confirm additional upward momentum. Conversely, for a downward move, it needs to cross and lock below the 1W PP. Currently, the likelihood of an upside is higher, but we'll monitor how it progresses!
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USD/JPY Targets Further Upside; Key to Hold Above 1W PivotHello,
The FX:USDJPY pair is showing potential for further upside towards 161.952, though short-term fluctuations may occur. Despite significant seller pressure at the moment, the long-term outlook remains strongly bullish. To sustain this momentum, maintaining a position above the 1-week pivot point (1W PP) is crucial.
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XAG/USD Upside Potential with Key Resistance LevelsHello,
OANDA:XAGUSD is showing potential for further upside. Key resistance levels to watch are 31.619, 32.08, 32.541, and 33.925. While the price remains well-positioned for upward movement, caution is advised. It's important for the price to stay above the 1W pivot point to maintain the bullish momentum.
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XAU/USD Targets Upside Above 2685.575Hello,
OANDA:XAUUSD has shown earlier-than-expected upside momentum and has perfectly respected the 1M pivot point (PP). The outlook is for further upside, but only if the price can establish itself above 2685.575, the previous high. Keep in mind, gold is currently a strong buy. Key resistance zones to watch are 2752.329, 2693.565, and 2673.977.
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EUR/USD: Testing Key Support Levels Amid Bearish MomentumHello,
The key question is whether FX:EURUSD will continue its downward trend. It seems likely that the full 1-year support structure could be tested before any potential upside. A crucial indicator will be whether the strong 1-week and 1-day support at 1.088379 and 1.088205 holds. If it doesn’t, further downside is expected, despite increased buying activity at the moment. The bearish momentum may persist.
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Probabilities Powering BTCUSD TradesUtilizing probabilities based on historical data is a cornerstone of my bullish strategy for BTCUSD. Here’s why I believe this approach is not only effective but essential for positioning long trades successfully.
Understanding the Importance of Probabilities
Probabilities in Trading
Trading is inherently uncertain, and relying on probabilities allows traders to make informed decisions rather than guesses. By analyzing historical price movements and patterns, we can identify trends that have previously led to upward or downward movements. This statistical approach helps mitigate risks associated with emotional decision-making.
Historical Data as a Guide
Historical data provides a wealth of information about how BTCUSD has reacted under various market conditions. By employing a mechanical trading strategy that incorporates these indicators, I can increase my chances of entering profitable trades.
Mechanical Trading Strategy
What is a Mechanical Trading Strategy?
A mechanical trading strategy is a systematic approach that uses predefined rules based on historical data to make trading decisions. This method eliminates emotional bias and ensures consistency in trade execution.
Benefits of a Mechanical Approach
1. Consistency: Adhering to a mechanical strategy means that trades are executed based on data rather than emotions.
2. Backtesting: Historical data allows for backtesting strategies to see how they would have performed in the past, providing confidence in their potential effectiveness.
3. Risk Management: By employing probabilities, I can better manage risk through calculated position sizing and stop-loss orders.
Current Market Context
In the current market environment, BTCUSD shows signs of bullish momentum. The formation of higher lows indicates strength, and historical patterns suggest that we may be at the beginning of another significant upward trend. By leveraging probabilities derived from past performance, I am positioning myself to capitalize on this potential movement.
Conclusion
In summary, utilizing probabilities based on historical data through a mechanical trading strategy equips me with a robust framework for entering long positions in BTCUSD. This approach not only enhances my decision-making process but also aligns with my overall bullish bias. As we navigate the complexities of the crypto market, relying on data-driven strategies will be crucial for achieving success in our trades.
1D:
6H:
USOIL: Bullish Fundamentals and 61.60% Probability for LongsKey Fundamentals
- Decreased OPEC Exports: Recent reports indicate a decline in crude oil exports from OPEC and Russia, tightening the market as refinery runs ramp up for seasonal demand. This reduction in supply is likely to exert upward pressure on prices2.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, continue to add a risk premium to oil prices. Traders are increasingly factoring these uncertainties into their market strategies2.
- Rising Demand: With the U.S. economy showing signs of recovery and better-than-expected market fundamentals, demand for oil is anticipated to rise, further supporting higher prices12.
- Technical Indicators: Current market sentiment shows USOIL trading above its pivot point of $74.80, with support levels around $74.00. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 56.16, indicating a healthy trend without being overbought1.
I'm employing a probability-based strategy to position myself for long trades in USOIL.
By incorporating these fundamentals and probability analysis into my trading approach, I aim to leverage the current bullish sentiment in USOIL effectively.
12M:
2W:
Hourly TFs:
$BTC Daily UpdateSo BTC Price Action has been played out as expected so far. You could check my previous analysis for more information.
Very strong bearish momentum after mitigating premium and unmitigated daily supply range that we have been waiting for. Price have collected a lot of internal liquidity in Dailly Fractal Structure and I assume the next level price might go is down to $44.000
There is daily flip demand zone at the level of 62.000 - 63.300, and we might get a bullish reaction from that level, but I personally think that level will be used as liquidity and price to mitigate 59.000 - 61.300 demand range. And that is where we could get a bullish reaction If we get any.
Do not try to catch any longs before getting any bullish reaction from the demand zones.
Shorts from 65.200 - 68.000 more probable imo
USDCHF: Support & Resistance Analysis 🇺🇸🇨🇭
Here is my latest structure analysis for USDCHF.
Resistance 1: 0.8608 - 0.8630 area
Resistance 2: 0.8728 - 0.8747 area
Support 1: 0.8559 - 0.8562 area
Support 2: 0.8500 - 0.8544 area
Support 3: 0.8374 - 0.8404 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
MEWUSDT Long Setup / Are you a cat person or a dog personOKX:MEWUSDT
BYBIT:MEWUSDT
BINANCE:MEWUSDT.P
📈Which side you pick?
Bull or Bear
SL1 ---> Low-risk status: 3x-4x Leverage
SL2 ---> Mid-risk status: 5x-8x Leverage
(If there is just one SL on the chart, I suggest, low risk status)
👾Note: The setup is active but expect the uncertain phase as well.
➡️Entry Area:
Yellow zone
⚡️TP:
0.006912
0.007202
0.007492
0.007925
🔴SL:
0.005929
🧐The Alternate scenario:
If the price stabilize against the direction of the position, below or above the trigger zone, the setup will be canceled.
ARBUSDT Long Setup Setting / Layer2BINANCE:ARBUSDT
COINBASE:ARBUSD
📈Which side you pick?
Bull or Bear
SL1 ---> Low-risk status: 3x-4x Leverage
SL2 ---> Mid-risk status: 5x-8x Leverage
(If there is just one SL on the chart, I suggest, low risk status)
👾Note: The setup is active but expect the uncertain phase as well.
➡️Entry Area:
Yellow zone
⚡️TP:
0.5415
0.5519
0.5612
0.5732
🔴SL:
0.5022
🧐The Alternate scenario:
If the price stabilize against the direction of the position, below or above the trigger zone, the setup will be canceled.
$SOFi soared 8 days straight, 15minOn Thursday, Oct 10 I purchased two NASDAQ:SOFI 15 NOV 24 9c @ $64 ($128 total).
ENTRY @ $8.72 (12:27pm, Thu, Oct 10) because I noticed NASDAQ:SOFI had been undergoing a temporary recovery to the upside.
EXITs @ $9.99 & $9.93
- 1 contract - Profit taking at 120% ($64 -> $141), Mon, Oct 14 @ 1:18pm
- 1 contract - 6% trailing stop triggered at 114% ($64 -> $137), Mon, Oct 14 @ 2:15pm
Total revenue: $278 || Profit: $150
This is a good point to grab profit because price is around the 0.214 fibonacci and there is a gap to fill to the bottom which increases the chances of the stop dropping below continuing its journey to the upside.