AUDNZD - patience, vigilance and planning required.This video is not about an instant opportunity for jumping in the markets. I'm sharing how I stalk the markets.
New or novice traders - all too eager to make a fast buck - tend to miss the big issues i.e. that it is about patience, vigilance and planning ahead. The methodology shown is relevant to trend following.
How do we find trends? Well, we need to be tracking price action on all time frames and key levels of probabilistic reversal.
It's been a long journey for me and many new traders out there. For too long I've been told by the experts that it is mainly about vigilance and planning. Pain delivered by the markets brings home the truth of that golden message.
These days I say it's about 80 to 90% vigilance and planning, and 10 - 20% execution.
Patience
A Bull Trend Continuation on The EURTRYLast post: May 13th. See chart .
Review: A break and close above April resistance was required to confirm a trend continuation of the bull trend.
Update: The breakout took place, offering a long entry, and a new resistance high has been created.
Conclusion: Patience needed until the current May resistance becomes support.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Hit agree if you share our sentiments!
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Waiting for a confirmation to go long As i have already mentioned price broke the resistance and retested as support. There are 2 scenarios price could again retest the support or breakout of my current trend line and look to go towards 112.000 region. So lets wait for the break out before going long.
waiting for confirmationPrice at a very important level. The price has respected the trend line several times lets see if it will respect it again. If it does i see the price going up to 1.58975, a strong resistance zone. However if it does break the trend line i will be waiting for a retest of the trend line and then falling to around 1.445
Bullish Continuation of EURCHF*Positive CPI data will push this even higher
* Currently Swissy is the weakest currency out of all
My Suggest is to wait for the retest of 1.1306, that weekly closure above 1.1306 will be the retest before the bullish continuation.
So im currently Bullish Biased on this pair!
So down to lower time frame for precise entries!
Nothing is certain in trading, So trade carefully!
The EURSEK Bouncing Off SupportWe last posted on the EURSEK on April 20th when price had broken above followed by a pull back to the drawn-in pivot support level.
This pivot level so far has held strong and we are seeing strength to the upside. We want to see the momentum to the upside continue and take price through and close above the pivot high of April and ideally in the form of a bullish flag.
If the bullish flag does not materialise then that will mean further patience until the breakout is confirmed. Either way, we require a breakout for a continuation of the bull trend to be likely and until that happens we will be holding tight and applying patience.
If the breakout does happen then we would like to see price move towards the next key level of 11.0000 and offer opportunities to compound on its ascent. We have a long position
As the trend suggests, if the breakout does happen, expect a pullback to retest this current April high before a bounce up.
Embrace and expect pullbacks as they are a natural feature to price action. These are areas where many panic and lose money or get out of winning positions way too early or areas where people often are sucked in to go against the trend but fail.
Those who have a solid understanding of the natural features of price will simply stand aside and apply patience and wait for price to dictate a breakout to the upside in the case of the EURSEK.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Hit agree if you share our sentiments!
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PIVXBTC short-term (golden crossed, gonna breakout)
I have been watching the PIVX/BTC for few weeks. This is the fourth time in 2 weeks it is trying to break the upper line of the symmetrical triangle, and also poke the H&S neck's line.
The 1D golden crossed happened already so we are able to believe that the breakout is in coming. RSI gonna break resistance also.
Trading strategy:
- on 4H chart, RSI is near overbought, stoch overbought already so the correct gonna happen.
- wait for the correct and buy near the support line of the ascending triangle
- be patience for this trade is what I found after watching the price.
Target
- stoploss: below red line (<5400 imo)
- target 1: 64000
- target 2: 66000
- target 3: 70000
- target 4: 78000
Happy tradding!
Linh,
The USDTRY Steams AheadWe last posted on the USDTRY on April 6th when price had broken and closed above pivot resistance.
Prior to that, price had been in a consolidation that stretched back to November of last year. The longer the consolidation, the bigger the breakout is the expression and we would like that to hold true for this currency.
Price has seen three strong bullish days since the last post but do not expect this continue. Price does not and will not simply shoot off in a straight line. There will be trends that move faster than others, and this could be an example of that, but even fast moving trends have breather periods and pullbacks within the trend.
What we now want to see on the USDTRY is just that - a breather or a pullback of sorts. It may not be as deep as to the support level highlighted above but we do need to see a correction.
If the pullback is deep then it could offer a pullback entry. If price simply goes through a breather, then a breakout entry would be more suitable.
We will let price dictate that.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Hit agree if you share our sentiments!
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Will The TRYJPY Break Pivot Support?While the other JPY currencies that we have posted about, such as the AUDJPY , the CHFJPY and the USDJPY , continue to pullback or remain firmly in consolidation, the TRYJPY is leading the way for a possible breakout and trend continuation.
We last posted on the TRYJPY on April 4th when price had pulled back to and found resistance at a previous pivot level. Since then, price has weakened further and is now back at the pivot low of March.
This is classic price action movement in a trend. Price does not and will not ever move in a straight line. A trend is made of moves in a direction followed by a pull back to levels of support and resistance before a move back in the direction of the main trend.
The TRYJPY has moved in the right direction according to our previous post but we still need to apply patience and wait for a break and close below the March pivot support and ideally in the form of a bear flag. Flags, as trend traders, are our preferred chart pattern as they offer entry points, confirm a trend continuation and bring linearity to the trend structure.
This will then give us a strong confirmation of a a continuation of the bear trend and when we will look to enter compounds to the short trade we already have in play.
We are close to a setup but we will be standing aside and applying patience until price confirms the breakout.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Hit agree if you share our sentiments!
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The EURTRY Closes Above 5.0000We posted on the EURTRY for the first time on Sunday explaining that price had broken out of long term consolidation and was trending nicely towards the major resistance level of 5.0000.
It is at these levels where many would enter short positions trying to pick tops. It is a difficult and inconsistent approach as it involves guess work which often leads to losses. If stops are not being used then this is a hair raising journey that leads to blown accounts.
The smarter approach, and a proven approach, is to apply patience and wait for the trend to break through resistance and close above ( at the end of the trading day) for the resistance to be confirmed as support.
This is the setup we were waiting for as highlighted on our previous post on the EURTRY and our patience has now been rewarded. Price broke and closed above 5.000 at the close of play on Monday.
This is now offering an entry point to go long for the more aggressive trader.
However, given that this is new territory for this currency, the more conservative trader will wait for a trend to be confirmed above this new key support level before placing long trades.
We would now like to see price hold above this level and move towards 6.0000 offering opportunities to compound along its ascent.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Hit agree if you share our sentiments!
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GBPCAD Trading Below 1.8000We last posted on the GBPCAD on March 28th when price was being propped up by pivot support.
Price has broken through these levels and is now also trading below the round number 1.8000 and the weekly 200SMA which we would have liked to have seen hold strong as support. Price is now back at our entry from initial break an close above 1.8000 last month.
All is not lost. Support and resistance levels are not hard levels. They are zonal areas. Price moves to around these areas and can often dip below in a pullback in a bull trend before finding support and resuming the move back up.
In terms of support, the daily 50SMA is not too far below which is clustered with the high of 2017.
In addition, if we look at the monthly time frame when the bull trend started at 1.6000 support, September, October and November 2017 were all bullish followed by December being bearish. We then saw January, February and March of this year all being bullish with April so far being bearish.
We can not expect price to move in a straight line. There will always be pullbacks and periods of profit taking.
If this pullback turns into a full on trend reversal, then we have a stop-loss in place with a small risk attached.
Patience needed for now.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Hit agree if you share our sentiments!
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No Change on The EURUSDWe last posted on the EURUSD on March 24th when price was firmly in consolidation.
There has been no change on this since then with price still trading sideways between the drawn in support and resistance levels that define the high and low of this range.
Overall, our bias is still very much bullish with price trading above the daily 200SMA and the round number 1.2000. We also have a long position running on this currency pair from the break out when price closed above 1.2000 in January.
We are looking to compound into this position and that will be on the next bullish breakout at the earliest.
Until then, we will be applying patience and standing aside.
The temptation will be to then move down to lower timeframes and take intraday trades. It is an option but it carries more risk. The lower the time frame you go, the more random the price movement becomes and the the weaker your edge, if any, becomes.
Trading on larger timeframes means price, to a certain extent, becomes predictable as patterns, based on historical prices, are far easier to identify. Markets can sustain a direction for weeks, months or even years either up, down or sideways. The challenge is applying patience when needed which most fail to understand.
No trade is still a trade. This is where protecting your capital his priority.
This stance will be rewarded with breakouts and compounds and far simpler profits.
Patience for now on the EURUSD .
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Hit agree if you share our sentiments!
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The USDJPY Pullback and Bounce Off ResistanceWe last posted on the USDJPY on March 23rd when price has broken and closed below, suggesting a continuation of the bear trend.
Ideally, we would have like d to have seen price trend in a neat and linear fashion but instead price pulled back to the resistance level close to the entry point of our trade. Because of the way we manage out stops, i.e. not being too quick to move them, we are still very much in this trade.
Price is now recovering the ground lost on this pullback with weakness yesterday and so far today.
Looking at the structure of the trend in play, it is not surprising to see these pullbacks. The should be expected as they will offer potential entry points to go short. Knowing the structure of the trend will help establish how we enter and compound and manage risk and stops. A lot can be learned by applying patience and letting price dictate what to do. The rewards are also worth the wait.
We now need to see price break and close below the low of Monday this week to suggest a trend continuation and we can look to potentially add compounds.
Until then, we will be standing aside.
Wishing you all a very happy Easter.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Hit agree if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading