Palladium
PALLADIUM Trend changing from bearish to bullish.Palladium (XPDUSD) gave us the most optimal sell entry on our March 15 (see chart below) sell signal:
Now however it is time to take profit on that trade before the projected Target as the 1D RSI Double Bottomed, while the price is on Lower Lows. Even though this isn't a direct Bullish Divergence, when RSI Double Bottoms were formed along price Lower Lows, Palladium always started a rally, at a minimum of +21.30%.
As a result, since the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) are squeezed the closest they've been to each other since November 2022, we turn bullish now, targeting 1090 (+21.30% rise).
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Palladium's intraday rallies continue to attract sellers.XPDUSD - 24h expiry
Intraday rallies continue to attract sellers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
Our short term bias remains negative.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
20 4hour EMA is at 946.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
We look to Sell at 945.8 (stop at 961.8)
Our profit targets will be 905.8 and 898.8
Resistance: 940.0 / 959.4 / 980.0
Support: 931.1 / 918.3 / 902.0
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
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Palladium's Seasonal Shifts: Possible Double TopWith Palladium hovering around the $1046 mark, investors are navigating a complex landscape shaped by shifting market dynamics and economic indicators. Employing a seasonal approach akin to our previous analysis on Silver, we observe that Palladium has historically experienced significant declines during this period over the past 15 years. This seasonal pattern, characterized by bearish pressure, prompts a strategic reevaluation of trading setups for the metal.
Notably, Palladium's current price action suggests the formation of a double top pattern, signaling a potential bearish reversal. This technical indicator, coupled with the historical precedent of seasonal declines, serves as a compelling catalyst for initiating bearish setups in the short term. Notably , the Double top formation still on the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
However, it's crucial for investors to adopt a comprehensive approach that spans short to long-term perspectives. While short-term setups may capitalize on imminent bearish signals such as the double top pattern, long-term strategies necessitate a thorough analysis of fundamental factors and broader market trends.
XPDUSD Monumental buy at the bottom of the 6-year Cycle.Palladium (XPDUSD) is in the process of forming an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern as it approaches its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been unbroken as a Resistance since the week of October 10 2022. Once the 1W MA50 breaks, we will have a confirmed buy signal, whose first emergence was when the 1W RSI formed Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows, which is a Bullish Divergence.
We can see that this bottom is on a 6-year Cycle as the previous ones (January 11 2026 and December 01 2008) also took place on a 1W RSI Bullish Divergence forming an IH&S pattern. We expect Palladium to reach at least the 'Russia-Ukraine war peak' at 3450 by late 2025 the earliest or late 2027 the latest.
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Palladium to find buyers at current dip?Palladium - 24h expiry
Selling was posted yesterday but levels close to bespoke support of 1000 have found buyers.
1000.2 has been pivotal.
We look to buy dips.
Daily signals are mildly bullish.
The bullish engulfing candle on the 4 hour chart the positive for sentiment.
We look to Buy at 1005.5 (stop at 985.5)
Our profit targets will be 1055.5 and 1065.5
Resistance: 1032.1 / 1051.4 / 1060.0
Support: 1015.0 / 1000.2 / 984.5
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
XPDUSD Sell opportunity near the 1D MA200.Palladium (XPDUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the October 04 2022 High and the recent Feb 13 2024 Low rally is approaching the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This is where the last Lower High of the Channel Down was priced (Dec 22 2023), thus a sell opportunity is being presented. On top of that, the 1D RSI just hit the 70.00 overbought barrier.
As a result, we turn bearish on Palladium, targeting just above the Support 1 level at 865.00. We will turn bullish only if the price breaks above Resistance 1 and then pulls back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), targeting 1630 (just below Resistance 2).
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Sibanye Stillwater and Palladium buy entriesPalladium and SBSW are approaching demand areas and we can expect a reversal to the upside with SBSW offering 4X trade from 5 to 20. And similar with PALL. NATGAS are also approaching demand but no confirmation is seen yet.
#stockstobuy #stockstobuynow #palladium #forextrading #natgas
Palladium to find buyers at market?Palladium - 24h expiry
Yesterday's Marabuzo is located at 973.
Our short term bias remains positive.
We look for gains to be extended today.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
With signals for sentiment at oversold extremes, the dip could not be extended.
We look to Buy at 973.5 (stop at 953.5)
Our profit targets will be 1023.5 and 1033.5
Resistance: 988.2 / 1000.0 / 1020.0
Support: 980.0 / 965.0 / 950.0
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Palladium: Time for the Turnaround! 🔄Palladium is heading a little further downwards: the price is now drilling deeper and deeper into our turquoise Target Zone (coordinates: $1092 - $997). We expect that the low of wave B in turquoise will be deposited within this price range and that the trend reversal to the north will then succeed, which should subsequently bring us the price increases in wave C in turquoise. All technical conditions have now been met for this low; however, we allow the price to move a little lower again within our Zone. To hedge or minimize the risk of long trades, a stop 1% below the lower edge of the Zone can be placed. However, if the primarily expected bullish trend reversal succeeds, the metal should soon break above the resistance at $1257 and thus gain fresh upward momentum.
XPDUSD on the verge of a long-term bullish break-out.Palladium (XPDUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the October 04 2022 High. Today though, the price broke, marginally so far, above it for the first time after a strong post-Fed 1D candle. This rise was initiated on a Lower Lows trend-line but on an underlying Bullish Divergence as the 1D RSI was during the same period on Higher Lows.
This was the first signal of a potential long-term bullish break-out and a break (and 1D candle closing) above both the Channel Down and more importantly the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (which is where the April 18 2023 High was rejected), will be the confirmation.
If it happens (closing 1D candle above it), then we will buy and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 1255.00, which is slightly below Resistance 1 (1291.00). A further closing above Resistance 1, will be new break-out buy entry, with which we will target slightly below Resistance 2 at 1625.00.
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Gold - Fade a The Short Squeeze RallyThe marketing team behind gold and silver are always telling dumb and dead money that they should "hedge" against a "collapsing US Petrodollar" during times of global instability by being long on metals.
The trade rarely works out. Gold and silver not only routinely follow the equities markets straight to Hell, but tend to get dumped during the start of new index impulse swings.
This rally while the SPX gave up its 5% rally is actually a significant anomaly.
But if the propaganda never, ever worked out, the propaganda would stop working and the marketing team would be out of a job.
And that more or less sums up a 10% monthly rally on gold that's killed short sellers who wanted to comfortably ride a trend down.
You can see on the monthly that this price action is just more ranging, more wick plays, and there's a notable unbalanced gap under $1,800.
It's really important to keep a cool head as a goldbug, especially under the condition where the establishment media is reporting that Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party is long several hundred tonnes worth of gold.
The CCP is collapsing and everything that is going on in the world has to do with the various members of the CCP around the world, who are not of the Chinese race, scrambling to bury their skeletons while also trying to ensure they can take control of the country when the regime falls.
And because of that, there's no reason to believe that a CCP that is desperately selling US Treasuries (see: Santiago Capital) for USD is going to be allowed to go plussy plus greeny green on its deeply deep goldy gold position.
What hangs over the head of everyone on this planet is the Party's 24-year persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million students and Disciples, a sin committed by former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999, that has even had the audacity to commit the unprecedented crime of live organ harvesting.
Keep your distance from and wash your hands from anything related to the CCP, including the western factions that have become a particle of the Party swearing Marxist vows in Shanghai.
So, here's the trade.
Doesn't matter if gold takes $2,015. It's not the right overall timing for a new rally to $2,200.
Instead, either go short, or wait for gold to trade under $1,800 again.
There's no reason to believe gold is a new bull market until longs have been ruthlessly violated. There's no reason to believe metals are going to rally as a hedge during an international war or a major equity sell off, or a major equity rally lol.
#XPDUSD Palladium reaching long-term accumulation levelsPalladium is starting to pique my interest. After retreating from as high as $3000 at the peak in April 21' - the commodity is now down 65% and reaching interesting long term levels. Firstly the current level at approximately $1025 is where palladium peaked as far as back in January 01' - almost 22 years ago. If this becomes a point of polarity, the previous top(resistance) should start to morph into support. This level was also tested in late December 2017 after not having made new highs for 16 years! To think that the commodity is basically flat from the highest point some 22 years ago is quite something...
What makes this level even more interesting to me is that we have approached the 200 month moving average (green moving average on the chart). Interestingly, this is where the palladium price bottomed back in Late 2016 before rallying almost 500% to reach the Peak of $3000 in April 21'. Also, if you look at the RSI and MACD indicators at the bottom of my chart, you will see just how oversold the commodity is. To put it into perspective, the only time we were more oversold going back to 1997 (which is as far as i can go), was April 2003 where we traded as low as $150...
I would start accumulating here, with scope to add down at $850 should it get there, which is where we find the uptrend connecting the 2008 and 2016 lows. I will be surprised if we get that far, but I will start accumulating from current levels for a move higher. We are so stretched in price here that I do expect some mean reversion to take place in the weeks and months ahead. We are already starting to see mines having to close shafts which is telling you that PGM prices at these levels are not sustainable and something has to give sooner or later...
XPDUSD Price rebounding at the bottom of the Channel Down.Palladium (XPDUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since late June and on Monday the price hit its bottom (Lower Lows trend-line). As the 1D RSI touched the 30.00 oversold barrier on a Lower Lows formation that has previously formed short-term bottoms for Palladium, we expect a rebound towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The lowest rebound sequence within this period has been +9.00% so a 1185 target perfectly fit those criteria as well as a potential contact with the 1D MA50.
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Gold Set To Take On $2000 Amidst The Middle East CrisesThe global markets often react to geopolitical events, and the rising Middle East conflict is a prime example, drawing investors' attention worldwide.
This tension has amplified the demand for gold, a traditionally secure investment. The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict underscores gold's safe-haven status.
Gold prices have surged by 9% since October 6th. Looking back to August 2020, prices have ranged between $1614 and $2075.
Such consolidations hint at a significant impending move so a breakout might be on the horizon.
Recently, gold approached the crucial $2000 mark, a level that price last traded above in May 2023. Surpassing this could lead to price challenging its all-time high of $2081.
With the Middle East conflict persisting, gold's appeal as a protective investment might push its prices to new records heights, even as the financial landscape remains unpredictable.
Palladium Trade Plan based on Option SentimentOption activity in palladium is quite rare. On October 19 the verical spread with targets of $1150-1200 was passed. Despite the insignificant volume, it stands out sharply against the background of previous observations. The logic of this spread is the correction to the area of the previous support.