Palladium
Gold May Be Finding Support!Gold has experienced a lot of volatility recently and mainly due to the current health pandemic
but price appears to be gaining some order now.
Since May 2019, price has risen 37% but hasn’t formed the neatest of trends.
There have been periods of pullbacks such as the period from the 4th September 2019 to the
6th January 2020.
The sharp decline, which was a result of the pandemic, began on the 9th March 2020 and fell
by 14% from the high at $1,703.
Price quickly found bullish momentum and has since broken and closed above the previous high
and is currently testing it as support.
If the support level holds then the buyers should gain more momentum and push price even higher.
We now have to wait and see how price reacts going forward and get ready to take long positions
at the right time.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Palladium (XPDUSD): The end of its parabolic rise.Palladium has been rising non-stop for 4 years (since January 2016), a rise that after 2019 turned parabolic. This parabola has broken down this March as the pull back exceeded the 0.382 Fibonacci level that has been holding in the previous two cyclical pull backs (August 2018 and May 2019).
The 1W chart is on a neutral state (RSI = 53.141, MACD = 105.160, ADX = 39.528) as it has recovered 50% of the March sell-off, however the danger is far from over. Until the 2,900 High breaks, Palladium (XPDUSD) will most likely remain under selling pressure and the Higher Low trend line (red line) which has been supporting the 4 year uptrend may be tested. This test involves the 1W MA200 (orange line) both of which (HL trend line and MA200) can 'meet' on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement (of the whole 4 year move). This (0.618 Fib) is at 1,390. If that breaks to then the next Support and potential sell target will be on the 0.786 Fib at 980 where Palladium can again start looking like a strong investment.
Keep in mind that we have been strong Palladium supporters for quite some time:
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PALLADIUM PointersTrading in middle of 1 - 1/2 Gann structure, a bullish scythe can be observed however it doesn't look that strong, do divergences continue through price lines? just curious. Clear fractal can be observed with these bearish divergences. Best to go long in this scenario, major precious metals will see large increases with global uncertainty rising.
XPDUSD | More DownsidePlease support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful.
Price was rejected by Resistance Node (50 MA, Ichi Cloud and the Resistance Trendline of the Descending Channel). It's more likely to continue the decline and retest the 200 MA
Thank you for reading this idea! Hope it's been useful to you and some of us will turn it into profitable.
Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate. No single analysis is. To make a decision follow your own thoughts.
The information given is not a Financial Advice.
Palladium Rests Before It Makes Its Next MovePalladium trended really well from May 2019 to February 2020 and was set to reach the $3,000
round number but the current pandemic had other plans for the economy.
We soon saw a sharp decline in price, falling 47% in under 3 weeks, wiping out 6 months of gains
in a fraction of the time.
We are now seeing a different kind of behaviour in this commodity and price has become
unpredictable. This may be due to the fact that price may be entering consolidation following
the strong bullish trend.
During the trend, price used the 50sma as support to help it gain momentum to the upside, but now
the 50sma has turned to resistance which may help to force price down.
If we continue to see weakness then the next area of support is the $2,000 round number followed
by the 200sma.
Because we are seeing uncertainty in Palladium, the safest option is to wait for a break and close
above the current all-time high at $2,875 followed by the $3,000 round number.
While this commodity sets up for its next trend, which may take a while, we are focusing our attention
on forex pairs that are trending and we are also potentially looking for shorting opportunities in the stock market.
We will be looking at some shorting opportunities in our free Facebook group and we also cover this in our
4-Part series from the link below.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Platinum Breakout & Palladium Blow-off TopPlatinum at current levels presents tremendous value. The precious metals take turns outperforming and underperforming. In the late 90s palladium went into a bubble while gold, silver, and platinum bottomed out. Then throughout the 00's palladium moved sideways while platinum, silver, and gold all outperformed.
I believe we are nearing a similar setup where US stocks will enter a blow off top and palladium will follow. Following this blow-off top platinum and silver will begin to drastically outperform.
Additionally, the more expensive palladium gets, the more likely industry will find ways to substitute towards platinum. This is especially the case since most of palladium demand comes from China.
Be keeping an eye on these metals, along with gold and silver.
PALLADIUM FUTURES (PA1!) DailyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a rice high or price low
PALLADIUM FUTURES (PA1!) WeeklyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low
Gold Attempting A Recovery!Since Gold suffered a sudden decline from the 9th March 2020 high, price didn’t look like slowing
down until it approached the 200 simple moving average.
Price hesitated at this support level at first but the sellers forced price to move below the 200sma.
Price not only had the 200sma as resistance at that point but also the $1,500 round number.
With such a strong cluster of resistance above price, it appeared to be facing a huge obstacle
if it was going to be able to regain some bullish momentum.
The start of this week is proving to be on the side of Gold so far but with the current market
conditions, things can be subject to change.
Price has not only moved above the 200sma but it is also trading above the $1,500 round number.
We also have another hurdle not too far above in the form of last year’s high which stands at $1,557.
This level has been broken before and with enough bullish momentum, it can be broken again.
Going forward we want price to make a gradual recovery from the recent declines and a break and
close above the current high at $1,703 will confirm a continuation of the bullish trend.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Gold Takes A Dive!Gold was on a strong move to the upside since finding support in August 2018 and rose by 46%.
All trends come to an end at some point but Gold has recently come to a sharp halt.
Despite the recent decline, due to the recent health epidemics that are affecting the global
markets, the trend may not be over just yet.
Price created a high at $1,703 on March 9th 2020 but has since declined by over 12%.
At first glance, things don’t appear to be going well for Gold but price has now found comfort
at a support level which may stop further declines.
There are two levels of support holding price up. The first one is the 200 simple moving.
Price did trade below the 200sma but has now moved back above it. This gives us an idea that
this area may hold strong going forward.
The second one is the $1,500 round number which is a psychological area of support which price
struggled to break through in 2019. It appears to be causing a problem for the sellers now and
helping to assist the buyers in keeping price up.
Right now the market is rattled by recent global events but once the dust settles and if Gold
remains above support then it may not be long before we see a resumption of the uptrend.
We need to stand aside for the meantime until we see further confirmation of a continuation
of the bull trend.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
palladium bubble implodes with the stock marketSee the idea below. as predicted this bubble collapse is a normal and healthy correction to the parabolic increase. Look for a good buying opportunity within the next year.
Palladium 5H, TD Seq 9; Short SetupChart says it all, descending triangle breakdown confirmed, first target lower channel TP lower 2490-ish.
PALLADIUM maintaining bullish momentumPalladium has produced a bearish divergence, followed by a possible bullish divergence, yellow fib EMA has been a clear support for some time for this bull run, lets see if it holds again. Currently stuck in between a strong horizontal support.
Gold Is Climbing Out Of Consolidation!Gold is lagging behind Palladium in terms of price and growth since 2016. However, Gold has seen
consistent growth and has been reliable for many decades and normally trends for many years at a time.
After a long-term trend and peaking at an all-time high of $1,920 in September 2011, price started to
decline over a period of 4 years. The decline saw a 45% move creating a low at $1,046 in December 2015.
From September 2011 to the present day, price has been in consolidation. A break and close above the
all-time high at $1,920 will confirm a continuation of the uptrend as price would be trading outside
of the consolidation zone.
Despite price being in consolidation, we can see a bullish trend is in play on the lower timeframes
which have allowed us to enter positions which are all currently in good profit.
We will continue to compound on our positions if we can get risk-free before major levels of resistance above.
To be conservative, you can look for opportunities if and when price breaks and closes above
the all-time high and the $2,000 round number.
See below for more information on our trading techniques and how we will continue to enter positions in Gold.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Palladium Resting At The 50 Simple Moving AveragePalladium has seen a strong rise since August 2019 with nice trends ranging from 18% to 38%
following periods of pullbacks. This has been an overall growth of 106% over a period of 7 months.
As with every trend, there will be pullbacks along the way and we are experiencing another
one at the moment. When price pulls back, we always want to look for areas of support that price
may come towards.
Price usually bounces off areas of support but if support levels are broken it may indicate further
weakness to come.
Price has pulled back to the 50sma which is currently holding and helping to keep price up.
The last time price hit the 50sma was in November 2019 and we saw a strong trend that followed.
If price can do the same going forward then we need to see momentum to the upside which can
push price above the $2,500 round number.
Followed by that we need price to break and close above the current high at $2,875 and the
$3,000 round number. If these levels are broken then we should continue to see Palladium
soar to even greater heights.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Palladium Rescued At $2,500!Palladium is proving to be resilient as it is finding strength after a sharp decline last week.
The $2,500 round number has come to the rescue for the buyers and it is acting as a strong
level of support for price.
In January 2020, this round number was acting as resistance and forced price to pull back
and now that resistance level has turned to support.
The fear of the coronavirus spreading caused wide speculation in the markets last week
and Palladium fell by over 350 points.
Now that price has found support at $2,500 we are starting to see strength back in this commodity
and we just need more momentum to see price push its way above the current all-time high.
A break and close above the current all-time high at $2,875, formed on the 27th February 2020,
will confirm a continuation of the uptrend.
Bear in mind that we have the $3,000 psychological round number not too far above that high.
This may cause further resistance for price if it can reach these heights.
Our multiple positions are currently still in profit and we are looking to compound once
we see another breakout.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Elliott Wave View: Palladium 7 swing Correction In ProgressShort term view suggests the rally in Palladium to 2814.25 ended wave (3). The wave (4) decline in Palladium is currently in progress to correct cycle from May 13, 2019 low before the rally resumes. Internal of wave (4) is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from Feb 28, 2020 high (2814.25) , wave ((a)) ended at 2610.1 and bounce in wave ((b)) ended at 2740. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 2387.30 which completed wave W of the double three.
Afterwards, the metal ended the rally in wave X at 2576.9. It has resumed lower and broken below wave W at 2387.3 suggesting the next leg lower has started. Down from wave X high at 2576.9, wave (a) ended at 2391 and wave (b) bounce ended at 2465.10. Expect Palladium to extend lower towards 2248 – 2311 area to end wave ((w)), then it should bounce in wave ((x)) to correct cycle from March 2 high in 3, 7, or 11 swing before turning lower again.
The potential target for wave Y of (4) can be measured as 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension of W-X which comes at 2045 – 2146. This area, if reached, can see buyers for further upside or 3 waves bounce at least. We don’t like selling the proposed decline due to the bullish trend in the higher degree.
Long Palladium on pullbackLong term uptrend in pullback. Looking to enter here with stops under support. Looking for trend continuation
"The Tesla of commodities" - And it's not gold, iron ore or platThank you China – and no… not for the Coronavirus
I’m talking about Palladium…
The main reason why Palladium is flying and will continue to do so, is all thanks to regulations taking place in China.
We are seeing major industrial demand driven by the expectations that there'll be stricter environmental regulations and standards in China.
In fact, they expect production to trail by 1.9 million ounces of palladium this year. That’s an insane 800,000 ounces more than last year.
For you to understand why there is an increase in demand for palladium, we need to look at what the main industrial use for this precious metal is.
Did you know, two-thirds, or 67%, of all palladium is consumed each and every year from the manufacturing of automobile catalytic converters.
What’s important to note is that the palladium - used in the catalytic converter - helps control the harmful emissions and pollution from fuel-powered vehicle car exhausts…
And now, with Chinese and European vehicles needing to meet the (China 6 and Euro 6d) legislation we can expect a rise in the global average loadings on gasoline-catalysts.
This increase in demand, will send the palladium price even higher.
Vivek Dhar, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia summed it up nicely:
"Demand is being driven by environmental regulations, particularly in China, which has increased palladium use in vehicles and should offset any recent weakness in car sales"
Right, so we know the big reason why Palladium should continue rallying, but wait until you see this chart…
This half-crescent pattern will take Palladium to the moon
Looking at the above daily Palladium chart, you can see it’s been moving in a strong uptrend from a low price of $1,460 up to the previous high at $2,530.
During this time, it has formed a strong upward (buying) momentum pattern which I call the “Half Crescent” formation (shaded grey).
This is when the price moves up at a steep and round angle, which creates a formation that looks like the crescent shape similar to the moon.
And now that the price has broken out and above the six-month ceiling level (pink line), tells me that palladium is going to continue to sky rocket.
To calculate the next target of Palladium we'll basically use my breakout High-Low calculation…
This is a target calculation where I take the price difference between the most recent high ($2,530) and the most recent low ($1,460 and I add it to the most recent high price.
Price Target =
= (High - Low) + High
= ($2,530 - $1,460) + $2,530
= $3,600
This means, we will be able to take full advantage of the palladium price rise while it rallies another $1.070…
