USD/CHF Pulls Back Ahead of July HighUSD/CHF pulls back from a fresh monthly high (0.9022) to keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below oversold territory, but a move above 70 in the oscillator is likely to be accompanied by a further advance in the exchange rate like the price action from earlier this year.
USD/CHF Rate Outlook
The recent rally in USD/CHF appears to be stalling ahead of the July high (0.9051) as it struggles to push above the 0.9030 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 0.9040 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) area, and lack of momentum to extend the recent series of higher highs and lows may push the exchange rate back towards the 0.8880 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.8910 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) zone.
Next region of interest comes in around 0.8770 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.8800 (50% Fibonacci extension), but USD/CHF may continue to trade to fresh monthly highs should the bullish price series persist.
A break/close above the 0.9030 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 0.9040 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) area raises the scope for a test of the July high (0.9051), with the next area of interest coming in around 0.9180 (23.6% Fibonacci extension).
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist at FOREX.com
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Technical Analysis of NIFTY Index - 30-Minute TimeframeDouble Top Pattern:
The chart shows a double top pattern (marked as "Top 1" and "Top 2"), which is a bearish reversal pattern.
The neckline for this pattern has been broken, confirming bearish momentum. The pattern suggests that the uptrend has reversed, leading to a downward move.
Falling Wedge Pattern:
After the double top, the index has formed a falling wedge, which is typically a bullish reversal pattern.
The price has broken out of the falling wedge, signaling the potential for a short-term bounce.
Targets:
Immediate Upside Target: The breakout from the falling wedge suggests a potential recovery toward 24,200–24,300.
Downside Target: If bearish momentum resumes, the index could move toward 23,500 as marked on the chart.
Volume Analysis:
The breakout from the falling wedge is accompanied by a slight increase in volume, which supports the bullish case. However, sustained volume is needed for the uptrend to continue.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support:
Immediate: 23,800
Stronger: 23,500
Resistance:
Immediate: 24,200–24,300
Extended: 24,500
Moving Averages:
The index is currently trading near its short-term moving averages, which could act as dynamic resistance. A breakout above these levels would confirm further bullish momentum.
Fundamental Analysis of NIFTY Index
Macroeconomic Environment:
Global Factors: Uncertainty in global markets, including rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions, have added to the volatility in Indian markets.
Domestic Growth: India's economy continues to grow steadily, supported by strong consumer demand, government infrastructure spending, and a robust services sector.
Sectoral Performance:
IT and Pharma: Defensive sectors like IT and Pharma have seen relative strength amid global uncertainties.
Banking and Financials: Despite some recent corrections, banking and financial services continue to drive the index, supported by rising credit growth and strong results from private banks.
Metals and Energy: Global commodity prices and demand from China remain key drivers for metals and energy stocks.
Corporate Earnings:
Indian corporates have shown resilience with steady earnings growth, particularly in the FMCG, banking, and auto sectors. However, margin pressures persist in some sectors due to higher input costs.
Valuation:
NIFTY's valuation remains slightly stretched compared to historical averages, suggesting room for further correction. However, strong long-term growth potential keeps the outlook positive.
Key Risks:
Rising interest rates globally could tighten liquidity.
Any further escalation in geopolitical tensions or slower global growth could impact market sentiment.
Conclusion:
Technical Outlook:
NIFTY has formed a double top, confirming bearish momentum, but a breakout from the falling wedge offers a short-term bullish opportunity.
Upside Targets: 24,200–24,300
Downside Risk: 23,500 (if bearish momentum resumes)
Fundamental Outlook:
India’s economic fundamentals remain strong, supported by consumer demand and government spending.
While the market faces short-term headwinds, the long-term outlook remains positive, making this an opportunity to accumulate quality stocks during corrections.
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DOGE Faces Pressure With Buyers Eyeing a Possible RecoveryBINANCE:DOGEUSDT has been trading within a tight range, reflecting indecision among market participants. Resistance levels are at $0.36409 and $0.38963, with support levels at $0.31309 and $0.313. The recent downward pressure has stalled, potentially paving the way for a near-term rebound.
The 9 EMA remains below the 20 EMA, consistent with bearish momentum. However, the MACD histogram shows a shift toward positive divergence, signaling diminishing selling pressure. RSI remains below the neutral 50 mark, though it edges toward recovery, indicating a possible upward movement.
Trading Strategy: Short traders may aim for positions around $0.36409 with stops above $0.36622. Long opportunities could arise near the $0.31309 support level, with profit-taking near the $0.36409 resistance.
Ethereum trade plan and ALTSEASONIf Ethereum breaks out of its current triangle pattern or surpasses its all-time high, it could ignite an altseason where ETH outperforms Bitcoin.
However, if a new all-time high is achieved, it’s likely to create a weekly bearish divergence, signaling a loss of momentum and potentially leading to a deviation.
S&P 500 Reached The Top - Correction UnderwayThe S&P 500 looks to have reached a significant top - being rejected from the 1:1 Fibonacci extension on the Weekly Timeframe.
With other confluence like the rising wedge, high weekly RSI levels, and a decreasing momentum on the MACD, all things point downwards for the stock market in 2025.
The next target would be the blue zone where a potential chance for reversal could occur.
A top in the S&P 500 could also signal tops forming on major stocks like NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:TSLA , etc. so keep a lookout.
SPY Technical Analysis PredictionThis chart is a daily timeframe for SPY (S&P 500 ETF), displaying multiple indicators such as pivot points, dark pool levels, trendlines, moving averages, and volume. The current market structure suggests a potential trend transition phase, with price currently consolidating near critical support levels.
Key Observations:
1. Trend Structure:
The long-term uptrend is still intact, supported by the green ascending trendline originating from prior lows.
The recent pullback breached the 8 EMA and 21 EMA, which implies short-term bearish momentum. However, price is consolidating near the S1 pivot level (579.18), suggesting possible support.
Higher Highs (HH) were achieved earlier in the trend, but the failure to maintain levels near the R1 pivot (614.64) indicates resistance and profit-taking.
2. Support and Resistance:
Resistance Zones:
600-604: A psychological resistance level and the approximate region of the 8 EMA.
609.07: The previous swing high and a critical level for a bullish continuation.
R1 (614.64): A strong pivot resistance level.
Support Zones:
Immediate support at S1 (579.18), which aligns with current consolidation.
Lower supports are seen at S2 (555.80), S3 (543.72), and the ascending green trendline (~524).
Dark pool levels between 513.20 - 522.91 represent critical institutional zones, which may act as strong support.
3. Volume Profile:
Significant volume spike on the most recent red candle indicates institutional activity.
If price remains above key supports (S1, S2), this could suggest accumulation. A breakdown below S1 would imply further distribution and downside.
4. Dark Pool Levels:
Dark pool prints at 522.91, 518.92, and 513.20 mark critical price levels for institutional interest. A break into these levels would indicate bearish momentum but could offer significant buying opportunities near those zones.
Trade Setup:
Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal from S1 (579.18)
Trigger: A strong bounce off S1 with price reclaiming the 8 EMA (currently near 600) would confirm bullish momentum.
Profit Targets:
595-600: The immediate resistance zone and EMA alignment.
609.07: The swing high from earlier in December.
614.64 (R1): A longer-term target at the pivot resistance.
Stop-Loss: Below 575, as this invalidates the bullish setup.
Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown Below S1 (579.18)
Trigger: A break below S1 with high volume and price failing to reclaim the 8 EMA would confirm bearish continuation.
Profit Targets:
565.16: The prior swing low and intermediate support.
555.80 (S2): A strong pivot support level.
543.72 (S3): A deeper downside target.
Stop-Loss: Above 595, as it would indicate a reversal back above resistance.
Scenario 3: Long-Term Reversal Near Dark Pool Levels
If price falls into the dark pool zones (522.91-513.20), this could offer significant long-term buying opportunities, especially near the ascending green trendline (~524).
Final Thoughts:
Short-Term Outlook: Consolidation near S1 requires close monitoring for either a bullish reversal or a bearish breakdown. Volume and price action at the EMAs and pivot levels will be crucial indicators.
Long-Term Outlook: The green trendline and dark pool levels represent strong support zones, offering potential for accumulation if prices drop further.
XAUUSD continuation downsideLast week we saw a weekly rejection from 2721 and a very acute buyside grab started by Asia, which then formed the double top and the pivot for the M pattern.
It wasn't as sharp a decline this time probably due to the time of year and the lead up to Christmas. Volume was certainly down last week and spreads had increased somewhat.
We weren't able to test the former highs even after 2 weeks of consolidation and instead reversed the whole break out move for the week and finish flat.
This coincides with the fib levels marked on the chart between .786 and .618 respecting the level as a strong resistance and optimum sell zone.
Although I see the coming week to be a short, levels of significance are 2627,2614, 2605. If all these levels are breached then a move back to buyside liquidity 2540 could occur.
I don't think we will go straight down and perhaps some buy strength will come in from the open and retrace back up to 2675 to fuel up the bigger move lower.
Fridays close completes a round trip of the week and month which has us starting the new week at the flip level for the month as well as EMA support.
We find out in a few hours what Asia thinks, good luck all....
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec20, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin's spectacular pullback to Mean Sup 91800 is noted. We anticipate a rebound to the upside, targeting the key Resistance level of 106000. Nevertheless, it is essential to acknowledge that a retest of the Mean Support level 91800 remains a plausible scenario.
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Market Breadth showing Weakness Market Breadth showing Weakness. Drops back below key level.
Yield curve starting to steepen, breaking the longest inverted period in history.
Looking for the next red monthly inside candle early next year to start getting bearish.
Only two rate cuts anticipated next year instead of four.
SOL's Support and Resistance Levels
FVG's filled (touched) on both the 4H and Daily, which also corresponds with the 0.382 Fib level on the daily. A strong support level. Next stop for SOL is to break those lower highs it's been posting and get back back into the game. Nice buy at this level with take profits at each Fib level for me.
We could see that FVG/Fib level be retested on a few more bars unless market sentiment shifts.
MICROSTRATEGY: Hit the 1D MA50 and bounced, but is it a buy now?MSTR has made a rapid turn from overbought to neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.944, MACD = 14.210, ADX = 17.986) as it reached today a -40% decline from its ATH but eventually hit the 1D MA50 and rebounded. This is the first contact with the 1D MA50 since September 19th. Even though it seems like a strong technical buy opportunity, Microstrategy has had its best buy entries in the last 2 years, under the 1D MA50. As this chart shows there have been 8 such buy signals, so even though the current rebound is tempting, we ideally want to see the price under the 1D MA50 and $300 before issuing a buy signal. Once this is filled, we can target the December 5th High minimum (TP = 400).
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$SOL deep deeper deepest!CRYPTOCAP:SOL is back in his channel. Sol has been corrected very deeply. I hope that Sol will first test and break the supply zone and then move on to the next one for a retest outside its trend for a retest on top of the trend and demand zone. As soon as that pattern is complete, we head to the ATH. First let's test and break that supply zone.
USDCAD Rejected at 1-Year High, Targeting 1M PivotHello,
FX:USDCAD has reached a 1-year high of 1.446735, but has just been rejected at this level. Moving forward, we can expect a steady decline, with the 1-month pivot point as the initial target.
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
Buy under 100K and Target 125K by Jan 20Simple strategy of buying bitcoin when it's trading under 100K leading up to Trump Presidency, I don't see why Bitcoin can't continue to 125K by Jan 20 (Trump inauguration). Fed went from from dovish to dovish/neutral in my opinion, not hawkish. This is a buying opportunity and the strong reversal forming a bullish hammer after the cooling PCE report today is the confirmation to continue buying BTC here.
BTCUSDT: Trend in daily time frameThe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames.
A strong move requires a correction to major support and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
If the BTC chart does not react to close levels 102000, this analysis will be invalid.
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trend, colored levels, and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive.
BEST,
MT