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Don't give up and buy TLTWe have a new rate cut, congratulations! The Fed rate is now 4.5%. What is happening in the market, and why does the effect of the rate seem to "work in reverse"? After all, TLT should have been above 100 long ago, especially after so many rate cuts. Yes, that's entirely correct, so why are all our accounts in the red? First and foremost—the most important thing—never sell U.S. Treasury bonds at a loss. Second, the market is "inclined" or "disposed" to believe that the Fed is either lying or doesn't have a proper grasp of the situation. Due to domestic political changes and the effects of Trump's policies, inflation is expected to remain high for a prolonged period—potentially above 3%. Even in that scenario, a yield of 4.7% or higher on 20+ year bonds remains attractive. More on that later, but in the real sector, following the elections, the Chinese yuan has already depreciated by over 5% against the U.S. dollar. RIGHT NOW, the U.S. debt market is the most attractive market with its 3.1% economic growth.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by gorgevorgian
3
BTC - Let's Do It Again!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, this is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 As per my last BTC analysis (attached to the chart), BTC rejected the blue circle zone and made a new ATH. If you missed it, we might have another opportunity to catch it again. The new blue circle marks the intersection of a key structure, the lower blue trendline, and the $100,000 round number. 📚 According to my trading style: As #BTC approaches the new blue circle, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (such as a double bottom pattern, trendline break, and so on). 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~ Rich
Long
by TheSignalyst
31
Fed triggers US equity sell-offLast night the Federal Reserve surprised no one when it announced a 25 basis point rate cut, taking the Fed Funds band down to 4.25-4.50%, back to levels last seen two years ago. But that wasn’t the main story. The big news came with the release of the FOMC’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). This showed that the majority of FOMC members now expect just 50 basis points-worth of rate cuts between now and the end of next year. While this is what the CME’s FedWatch Tool has been forecasting for a some time now, it represents a major change in the FOMC’s thinking since the last SEP from September. Back then, the forecast was for 100 basis points-worth of cuts in 2025. So this represents a significant hawkish change, and one that led to a slump in equity markets and precious metals, and a surge in the US dollar and bond yields. US stock indices registered their biggest one day declines since March 2020, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury broke above 4.50% to hit its highest level since May this year. If yields find a floor here and head higher, then they could become a big headwind for equity prices going into 2025. It’s worth considering just what a mess the Fed made of that September meeting. Not only was it far too dovish in its forecasts, once again appearing to underestimate the stickiness of inflation, but it also messed up the other side of its dual mandate, the labour side. It got completely blindsided by a couple of poor Non-Farm Payroll reports, to such an extent that it panicked and cut rates by 50 basis points rather than the 25 widely expected. That decision may have set up the central bank for yesterday’s hawkish shift, although in fairness there are several other factors, not all of them bad. Inflation has ticked up recently, which makes it harder for the Fed to justify easier monetary policy. But US growth is undoubtedly robust, while unemployment appears anchored at manageable levels. There is some uncertainty over what the incoming Trump administration may mean for the economy, but overall little has changed. The Fed can be blamed for some poor messaging, but then again investors have only heard what they wanted to hear, blocking out any negative signals. The market hasn’t suddenly woken up to a string of ‘unknown unknows’ or anything else so Rumsfeldian. Instead, the sell-off in equities looks more like a panicked response from a market priced to perfection. And while it shouldn’t be a surprise to see a bounce-back as we approach the Christmas break, the odds have certainly shortened on tops being in for all the major indices.
TRADENATIONSB:US500
by TradeNation
1
Mastering the trading on US 30! it is more than just an idea!Hi, I hope you all are doing well * The chart time frame on chart is 4H but all time frames were used on my analysis! * We hit together in this bearish wave ,which I spoke about before it happens, three TPs (have a look on my last two ideas which I attached their links down for you to see) and now it is more complex than before and we need to mind something I will speak about it now. * The overall big wave for US 30 is bullish and what we see in this bearish wave is just a big correction wave because the index is searching currently for its HL to settle on and return back to do another ATH and so on. That is the easy talk because the tough question now is what the index bias now and where could be that HL?! * To answer this question you need to see that chart again now quickly and read what will come below and always keep looking step by step. I do want only to tell you targets! I want you to understand too. * The index retraces from its ATH by the top yellow line, correct and lost 44735 already and I spoke a lot about the importance of that price as all that bearish wave happened because of that! * Then index kept breaking supports levels on the way down and did not care except to the target which the whalers want to send the index too to gain the power again. All the candles at the free fall were on the left side of the purple downtrend line and could not break it so far because if it will be broken, will be the end of the bearish wave but obviously the index till now did not reach to its target! * My TP2 on my last idea was at 43800 and I chose that price carefully and wisely and not further down as I expect a bullish retrace to happen from here at around 43800 or 43780 but to where it could go up to?! * Do you see now the yellow square which I wrote next to it not a safe zone? because the top and the bottom lines of that square are acting as support and resistance zone from 43780 till 43970 this area is so beloved by the market whalers to give a feeling it will go down or up then it could work out with only by luck! because the correct decision to take is to refrain or avoid to set your entry in this area at all and to be patient UNTILL the price break through above or down than that yellow square! * By going down, will send the index directly to 43435 which I said many times before that is the second most important price after 44735! and I said both those levels are game changer by all the means! losing them means further down moves like what happened with 44735 and settling and bounce up from will give the index the needed buy power back! 43435 is at the blue flag on the chart! where will be the TP of that idea ONLY if the index will continue to go down and close under by minimum 1h candle's body and not with a wick as it could retrace back before the closure of the candle then you would lose the trade! * Now have a look on the three blue curved lines and see now where they are heading to?! the first is at the 2HH which acts now as a strong support for index, the second and the third were the points where great bullish momentum started from. Now your your eyes started to see what I see )) * Now then, have a look too on the red line I drew for you to understand that this line is acting as support or resistance, again it is not by luck that it is located at 43435 which is at the TP level! * Then now have a look please on the bottom yellow line of the big rising channel where there is a very big chance still that index could go and touch that line too, but I am not sure yet about it. That is why the HL point will be when the index reaches the red pr the below yellow line )) * Before that last but it is EXTREME important! For US 30 to continue the big overall bullish wave, the 4 HL CAN NOT BE at less level that 3HH but higher or at same level is also acceptable! * Last thing! Guess what also, Do you think still that my Fib level of 38.20% will meet the index in the same point of when the index reaching to the yellow line is luck! nothing is by luck, that is the trading guys! and the beauty of it!! * I did not put a second TP because I do not want to confuse you but you already know where that will be now ;) I sat the idea on neutral not short or long! do not forget the yellow square, above it so will be bullish but down from it would be bearish and if it is meant to be bearish then you know the targets! I think now your minds are telling you 100% bearish then because the puzzle is solved now)) and all make sense! Wait, nothing in the trading is called 100% but say to yourselves, that there is a condition if it happen so I will know what I will do and I will be patient for it because nothing is called 100% and no one is perfect! Note!! My ideas are exclusive to myself only and is not regarded as an advice for traders or investors and are not more than personal thoughts which I just wanted to share with you all and I do hope they could help. I am not selling any signals and I do not take money favour any trades recommendations. They are free of charge all lifelong but I keep the copy rights of them though to not be copied or shared or sold.
FX:US30
by moustafa_marei
16
Quick Rally For 3030 Has Fallen to a High volume trading area reaching the point of control that could act as a strong support, added There's also a strong Hidden Bullish Divergence on the RSI that gives great indication that we could see a rally up from this daily support lvl (42,300) back to the "trend line" break & previous structure low,(Filling the sell side imbalance -FVG) Confluences on This Trade - Rejecting Daily support lvl 42,266 - Rejecting Demand zone - @ 38.2 Fib Retracement - Hidden Bullish Divergence (RSI) - Buy Side imbalance fill - Daily Volume Support Lock in with your LTF Bullish Entry Signal, WAIT FOR YOUR CONFIRMATION AND **RISK ACCORDINGLY Intro to the next possible move: After this bullish move - price could reject the Trend line and previous structure low, then continue down. **This bullish to bearish move would give price action a "Head and shoulders ish" Pattern on a HTF. Caution on the Bearish Sell- we have high volume right below the 41,000 bank lvl that could act as a support. with all of that being said the one thing that gives me great hesitation on the 2nd part of this move The "Bearish Sell" is the fact that this current pull back only brought price down to the 38.2 Fib lvl, so this could just be a minor pull back for a big Bullish continuation move.
BLACKBULL:US30Long
by brianfj
4
$BTC: are we at the peak of this bull run?The chart says yes, and here’s the breakdown of my analysis: - **MACD on Weekly**: Overheated. The last time this happened was in June, and it led to a six-month consolidation with a -30% dump. - **RSI**: Overbought. Same story—this signals consolidation, but since we’re on the weekly timeframe, it’s going to drag on for a while. - **Daily Indicators**: Also overheated! This is double trouble. It means we’re likely to see a significant dump until the daily indicators reset at the bottom. Now, here’s the kicker: **everything in this cycle is messed up by the ETF FOMO.** - We’ve already passed the previous ATH *before* the halving—something that’s never happened before. This suggests a short-lived bull market is highly probable. - **Alt season? Canceled.** Bitcoin is hogging all the attention, news, and institutional money. Altcoins are sitting in the corner, forgotten like last year’s Christmas sweater. To be clear, I’m not saying we’re headed into a four-year bear market. But the traditional halving cycle? It’s over. - The halving doesn’t have the same impact anymore because miners no longer contribute significant sell pressure. - Instead, we’re looking at **six-month cycles**: alternating between FOMO rallies and consolidations, driven by weekly timeframes and the MACD. If this idea holds true, we’ll see a reset of all indicators by June, followed by a six-month rally for BTC. Altcoins might tag along, but don’t expect a classic alt season. The ETFs aren’t here to rotate money—they’re here to park it in BTC and ETH. And the altcoins? They’ll starve. Buckle up; it’s going to be an ETF-dominated ride! 🚀
Short
by CryptoNikkoid
3
Bearisdh drop off pullback resistance?AUD/JPY is reacting off the pivot which is a pullback resisstance and could drop to the 1st support level which acts as a pullback support. Pivot: 98.24 1st Support: 96.57 1st Resistance: 99.38 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
GBPJPY Strong bullish break out inside the Channel Up.GBPJPY is having its strongest (1d) candle today in almost 18 months. The main pattern is a Channel Up and this rise is extending its new bullish wave. The previous one retested the MA50 (1d) after crossing over it and the resumed the uptrend to peak on a +8.70% rise. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the next MA50 (1d) test. Targets: 1. 204.500 (+8.70% rise). Tips: 1. The MACD (1d) formed a Bullish Cross 9 days ago, the 3rd inside this 5month Channel Up, which confirms that we are on a bullish wave. Please like, follow and comment!!
Long
by TradingBrokersView
Bearish reversal?AUD/NZD is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could dropto the 1st support. Pivot: 1.10894 1st Support: 1.10338 1st Resistance: 1.11515 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
WTI Oil H1 | Overlap resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 70.46 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 71.50 which is a level that sits above a multi-swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 69.19 which is a multi-swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILShort
by FXCM
1
$BTC.D prediction based on the current situation.CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D has been climbing steadily since the start of this bull run. It’s often said that an altseason begins when BTC dominance drops below 55%. However, the 54% level appears to be a strong support zone, with the MACD showing a low point and the RSI entering oversold territory. My analysis suggests that BTC dominance has established a range between 59% and 55%. It’s likely to bounce off the top resistance, pushing dominance back toward the support. If the next drop breaks through this support, it could finally trigger a true altseason.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by CryptoNikkoid
1
Corn - Back into Stable RangeWhen the 441'0 historical resistance level is reached from below after having not been approached from below in at least a few months, it has served as resistance 5 out of the last 8 times. The theory here is that it will serve as resistance again and that corn will fall back into the "stable range" of 316' to 441'. There is a downtrend channel which also is serving as resistance. If the bearish theory fails, the upside potential is significant. Downside and upside targets are shown on the chart. This is one to watch and see how it plays out on hourly/daily TFs with a bearish bias. I'm bearish below 441', cautiously bullish above. No trade entry at this point.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Skipper86
AUD/USD:Bullish Reversal from Oversold Zone with 290-Pips TargetAUD/USD has tested the key oversold area near 0.6200, showing strong buyer rejection. This zone aligns with historical support, making it a high-probability area for a bullish reversal. The take-profit target is set at 0.6490, a major control price reflecting previous equilibrium and significant trading activity. With confirmation of bullish momentum, this setup offers aiming for a 290-pip move back toward fair value If today's daily candle as bullish, it would be full confirmation
Long
by Eleazarahmath
5