Sideways are the point of interest until around December 3rd
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please click "Boost" as well.
Have a nice day today.
-------------------------------------
(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The Fibonacci ratio on the left was drawn in the first rising wave.
Therefore, I think it is highly likely that it will sideways around 3.618 (98841.11).
I think this sideways movement is likely to continue until around December 3rd during the next volatility period.
If it continues to rise, it is expected to touch around 1.902 (101784.54) ~ 2 (106178.85).
-
(BTC.D 1M chart)
If BTC dominance rises above 62.47, I think a market where only BTC rises could be created.
Therefore, whether it can fall is the key.
-
Have a good time.
Thank you.
--------------------------------------------------
- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
That is, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year uptrend and faces a 1-year downtrend.
Accordingly, the uptrend is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
As you can see from the LOG chart, the uptrend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you to decide how to view and respond to this.
When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance.
This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies.
1st : 44234.54
2nd : 61383.23
3rd : 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting)
4th : 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting)
5th : 178910.15
-----------------
Oscillators
Without patience, there is nothing else to do in this market.So, we have the first positive signal, but we need to wait one more week for the monthly candle to close like this.
1. The candle has risen above the cloud boundaries and crosses the Kijun and Tenkan indication lines.
2. WaveTrend oscillator shows a bullish signal, but we need to wait for the candle to close like this.
3. Let's pay attention to the length of the red clouds. It is in this interval that the market reaches a new peak approximately in the middle of the cloud, followed by a correction. The last time the cloud was formed was from October 2020 to February 2023. The top of the market is December 2021. Now the cloud is in the segment 1 January 2025 - 1 September 2026. The midpoint of this cycle is October 2025.
We'll be watching.
Bitcoin Nears $100,000 as China Clarifies Personal Crypto RightsBitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, has been on a tear, recently surpassing the $99,000 mark. This surge has been fueled by a combination of factors, including increased institutional adoption, favorable regulatory developments, and growing global economic uncertainty.
China's Crypto Clarity
One of the most significant developments for the cryptocurrency market has been China's clarification of its stance on personal crypto ownership. While the country has imposed strict regulations on cryptocurrency trading and mining, it has clarified that individuals are allowed to hold cryptocurrencies for personal use. This regulatory clarity has boosted investor confidence and could potentially lead to increased adoption of cryptocurrencies in China, the world's second-largest economy.
Institutional Adoption Continues to Grow
Institutional investors, such as hedge funds, pension funds, and corporations, have been increasingly investing in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. This growing institutional interest has provided significant support to the market and has helped to drive the price of Bitcoin higher.
Global Economic Uncertainty
The ongoing global economic uncertainty, including rising inflation, geopolitical tensions, and the potential for a recession, has led investors to seek alternative assets. Bitcoin, as a decentralized and inflation-resistant asset, has become an attractive investment option for many.
Technical Analysis: A Bullish Outlook
Technical analysis of Bitcoin's price chart suggests that the cryptocurrency is in a strong uptrend. The recent breakout above the $99,000 level has further strengthened the bullish sentiment. Key technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), are signaling1 bullish momentum.
On-Chain Data Points to Further Upside
On-chain data, which analyzes the behavior of Bitcoin on the blockchain, provides further insights into the potential for future price appreciation. Metrics like the MVRV Z-Score, NUPL, and Puell Multiple suggest that Bitcoin is not overbought and has significant room to grow.
Challenges and Risks
While the outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish, it is important to acknowledge the risks and challenges associated with investing in cryptocurrencies. These include:
• Market Volatility: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and Bitcoin's price can fluctuate significantly in a short period.
• Regulatory Uncertainty: Changes in regulations can impact the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
• Security Risks: Cryptocurrencies are vulnerable to hacking attacks and other security threats.
• Technical Issues: Technical issues with the Bitcoin network could negatively impact its performance and price.
Conclusion
Bitcoin's recent surge to near $100,000 has been fueled by a combination of factors, including increased institutional adoption, favorable regulatory developments, and growing global economic uncertainty. While the future of Bitcoin remains uncertain, the current bullish sentiment and strong technical indicators suggest that the cryptocurrency could continue its upward trajectory. However, investors should approach Bitcoin with caution and be aware of the risks involved.
NIFTY50.....Sucker-wave has started!Hello Traders,
the NIFTY50 has declined to 23263 on Thursday and my forecast ("...one more lower low") played out well!
The decline since the ATH is to count as a "five down" and Friday's price action seems to mark the end of the weakening phase and a pullback has begun!?
If so, a first target range is around the 24484 to 24537 range with more bullish potential exist.
Even more, the N50 has fallen into the area of the 0.618 Fibonacci of the advance from 21281 to 26277!
Anyway. Normally a correction is to watch with a first leg done, a "counter-trend move" into the main direction of the larger trend, and finally, a second leg down to complete the correction.
So, we have probably seen a first leg down and the coming days could be bullish.
I have labeled the chart as a wave (v/a?) with a "question-mark, 'cause I am not sure what next to come. Seasonal we are in a phase of bullish price action, but....!?
We will check the pattern early next week and see....
Have a great weekend.....
Ruebennase
Please ask or comment as appropriate.
Trading on this analysis is at your own risk.
USDCHF Wave Analysis 22 November 2024
- USDCHF broke resistance zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9000
USDCHF currency pair today broke the resistance zone located between the resistance level 0.8900 (which has been reversing the price from July) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from April.
The breakout of this resistance zone coincided with the breakout of the daily up channel from September – which accelerated the active impulse wave (5).
USDCHF currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next round resistance level 0.9000.
XRPUSDT Long Setup Setting / Targets and PlansBINANCE:XRPUSDT
COINBASE:XRPUSD
📈Which side you pick?
Bull or Bear
SL1 ---> Low-risk status: 3x-4x Leverage
SL2 ---> Mid-risk status: 5x-8x Leverage
(If there is just one SL on the chart, I suggest, low risk status)
👾Note: The setup is active but expect the uncertain phase as well. also movement lines drawn to predict future price reactions are relative and approximate.
➡️Entry Area:
Yellow zone - 1.10 - 1.12
⚡️TP:
1.1723
1.2193
1.2660
1.3132
🔴SL:
1.0439
🧐The Alternate scenario:
If the price stabilizes against the direction of the position, below or above the trigger zone, the setup will be canceled.
Ethereum Longterm Price Prediction / 3500$ is the next stationBINANCE:ETHUSDT
COINBASE:ETHUSD
📈Which side you pick?
Bull or Bear
SL1 ---> Low-risk status: 3x-4x Leverage
SL2 ---> Mid-risk status: 5x-8x Leverage
(If there is just one SL on the chart, I suggest, low risk status)
👾Note: The setup is active but expect the uncertain phase as well. also movement lines drawn to predict future price reactions are relative and approximate.
➡️Entry Area:
Yellow zone
⚡️TP:
3000$
3500$
3914$
🔴SL:
2024$
🧐The Alternate scenario:
If the price stabilize against the direction of the position, below or above the trigger zone, the setup will be canceled.
If the price is maintained above 3321.30, ATH is possible
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click "Boost".
Have a nice day today.
-------------------------------------
(ETHUSDT 1D chart)
It has broken through the important resistance area of 3265.0-3321.30.
Accordingly, if it shows support near 3321.30, it is expected to continue to rise.
In other words, the key is whether it can break through the 3438.16 and 3644.71 points.
If it does, it is expected to continue to rise to renew the ATH.
I think this rise is meaningful because I think that for the altcoin bull market to start, the rise of ETH must start first.
-
Have a good time.
Thank you.
--------------------------------------------------
- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems that it has been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the increase is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, it is expected that prices below 44K-48K will not be seen in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to this.
If the ATH is renewed, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as support and resistance.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to generate Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous to use it for trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
-----------------
EURCHF Wave Analysis 21 November 2024
- EURCHF under bearish pressure
- Likely to fall to support level 0.9250
EURCHF under the bearish pressure after breaking the support zone between the support level 0.9335 (which has been reversing the price from September) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward price move from August.
The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active minor impulse wave iii of the higher order impulse wave (3) from May.
EURCHF can be expected to fall further to the next support level 0.9250, former strong support from January and August.
Learn Mother, Father and small child theory and Parallel channelThis is an educational video explaining medium to long term analysis of Nifty for educational purpose through my Mother, Father and Small Child theory. I am also trying to explain what happens in the long run, also you will find insights of how to use and draw a parallel channel. I have also done an analysis of Nifty supports and resistances in the medium to long term. We are also trying to understand what can be the channel top in the long run. We are also trying to see how RSI works in brief. The attempt is to explain a lot of stuff in simple jargon free language in roughly 16 minute video so that you get lot of education. It is going to be a power packed 16 minutes once you watch it. Do not forget to like/ boost our video and subscribe our channel.
To learn Mother, Father and small child theory to the deeper extent and to learn about RSI do read my book: The Happy Candles Way to Wealth creation available on Amazon in Paperback and Kindle version. The book is also available on Google playbook in E-version.
Disclaimer: Purpose of the video is for education. Do not treat this as a buy or sell call on Nifty. I am just trying to teach / throw light on Mother, Father and small child theory in brief along with the use of parallel channel. Hindi and English both languages are used in the video for wider audience to understand the same.
bullish xrp
Here's a polished version of your analysis in English that you can share:
XRP Analysis: Potential 20% Rise
Hello my friend,
XRP is looking strong right now, and it’s time to keep an eye on it. We're approaching a key breakout point, and after that, we may see a retest of the breakout level. This could provide a perfect entry opportunity.
Key Points to Watch:
Breakout Setup: XRP is nearing a critical level where a breakout is likely, which could trigger a significant upward movement.
Retest Opportunity: After the breakout, watch for a retest of the breakout point, which will confirm the trend and present a good buying opportunity.
20% Upside Potential: Based on current technical indicators, there's a high probability that XRP will rise by approximately 20%.
Stay alert and monitor the market closely for the next moves!
My brand new indicator-combos (100%free). Reversals+so_much_more
Youtube is littered with trading strategy's, as one strategy finishes another one is starting to play causing indicator-fomo, that's right, my new label and type of trader-FOMO which intentionally or otherwise keeps you going from strategy to strategy and in the process continually chasing your tail and leaving you to be diagnosed with analysis-paralysis through no fault of your own, too many indicator strategies dumped on you.
I don't do this on Youtube, I figure theres enough people regurgitating the same trading information, plus often the same talking heads who are promoting indicators in a paid endorsement. On the other hand, I am not afilated with ChartPrime, Bjorgum or any of the other indicator owners / developers whos' indicators I am simply borrowing for free to come up with my Strategy, which for all cents and purposes can be formed into varioius strategeies but all from the 1 Chart and indicator suite, sort of like a swiss army knife but only covering the strategies that are of interest to me,
1. Pullback trading with trend (200ema is below current price action) Or Reversal trading causing a new trend (riskier setups), but with additional confluences (that I offer) can be positive in finding a reversal. The first indicator I use for this is called.
CYCLE 4 | Realised Price Oscillator & Overlay - DETAILEDThis post is intended to be used with an earlier interactive companion post, crated to observe BTC's interactions in prior cycles so we can take learnings into cycle 4 with respect to BTC's under and over extensions of the calculated Realised Price.
A quick refresher - What is Realized Price?
Source: www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com
"Bitcoin Realized Price is the value of all bitcoins at the price they were last transacted on-chain, divided by the number of bitcoins in circulation. This gives us the ‘average cost basis’ at which all bitcoins were purchased, which is another way of describing Realized Price."
The above relationships have been incorporated into the Overlay and Oscillator indicators developed for this post to use into DCA accumulation and sell strategies.
Historic Observations
As per the above prior post, we see BTC enters a cycle topping and bottom phase when BTC's 'Realised Price' enters the top red and bottom green over extended regions of the normalised Oscillator and the Red and Blue Extension lines of the Overlay indicators.
We see historically the Oscillator shows the region where price moves with high volatility and other indicators that rely on divergence can extended much further than in other periods in the cycle before a true change in trend is achieved. In 2021 Overlay indicator (RED Line) was breached many times before we put in a significant trend change and the ultimate cycle top was realised at the second peak interestingly at the lower 'Purple' extension line November of that year.
CYCLE 4 Update
Where are we now according to the Realised Price Overlay and Oscillator indicators... Based on historic review of BTC relationship suggests we are about to enter the parabolic region of this cycles (Oscillator is about to enter into the 'RED' zone and Overlay indicator has breached the Purple line and is between the Red and Purple line).
Interestingly this relationship aligns with our cycle mapping posts, looking at BTC historic behavior since cycle bottoms and tops and BTC price targets based on Fibonacci extensions.
CYCLE 4 | Realised Price Oscillator & OverlayThis post is intended as an interactive companion post with a 'to follow' detail post for historic analysis.
I want to explore the relationship with BTC and Realised Price, and historically where we have seen cycle over bought and sold regions based on extensions from calculated realised price values.
What is Realized Price?
Source: www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com
"Bitcoin Realized Price is the value of all bitcoins at the price they were last transacted on-chain, divided by the number of bitcoins in circulation. This gives us the ‘average cost basis’ at which all bitcoins were purchased, which is another way of describing Realized Price."
The above relationships have been incorporated into the Overlay and Oscillator indicators developed for this post to use into DCA accumulation and sell strategies.
I will follow this post with a zoomed version for detailed discussion.
Gold - Wave 5, plus CCI and RSI confirmationAt the trough we had the RSI close to oversold, and we can say that CCI showed an oversold condition.
The CCI that measures the deviaton its smoothed with an 14-ma and adding the RSI above we have the market confirmation.
The candles formed three white soldiers that seems very strong.
We are in the beginning of wave 5 with the objective to go to a new high above wave 3.
Treasury yields at a crossroads? The implications for marketsThe long end of the US Treasury curve has been influential for FX markets recently. The rolling 10-day correlation between US 10-year yields with the DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY is either strongly positive or negative. Even gold shows a notable -0.73 correlation, highlighting the influence of long bonds on broader markets.
Given the inverse relationship between bond yields and prices, it’s no surprise that the correlation between 10-year yields and 10-year Treasury futures (shown in orange, left-hand pane) has been nearly perfectly negative over the past two weeks.
In terms of directional risks for yields moving forward, the right-hand pane showing US 10-year Treasury note futures is instructive. The price remains in a downtrend, repeatedly rejected since being established October. If this trend persists, it signals lower prices and higher yields.
That said, with the bullish hammer candle from the lows last week, coupled with RSI (14) and MACD which are providing bullish signals on momentum, you get the sense we may be in the early stages of a turning point.
If we were to see the price break the downtrend, resistance may be encountered at 113’00, a level that’s been tested from both sides in recent weeks. If that were to give way, it points to an environment of a softer US dollar and kinder conditions for longer duration assets and commodities.
Good luck!
DS
Merck & CO Inc: MRK oversoldIt's a cypher like bullish pattern with measurements close to an ideal cypher i.e. 1.5 per cent discrepancy, but I am looking at a broad timeframe over last couple of years. assuming it is bottoming these days around 95 it should bounce back to around 120 i.e. fibo .618 of the cd leg. - at least!
main oscillators i track indicate oversold on day, week, month TF
Coca-Cola Wave Analysis 20 November 2024
- Coca-Cola reversed from support level 61.35
- Likely to rise to resistance level 64.00
Coca-Cola earlier reversed up from the support zone between the pivotal support level 61.35 (former monthly high from February and March) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star, which started the active minor ABC correction (ii).
Coca-Cola can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 64.00, which is the target price for the completion of the active wave ii.
GBPUSD Trade PlanChart shows a bullish divergence between price and RSI, alongside an inverse head and shoulders pattern, indicating a potential bullish reversal.
The trade setup suggests a buy stop above the neckline at 1.27268, with a stop loss at 1.25861 (below the lower low).
Profit targets are TP1 at 1.28680 (first resistance) and TP2 at 1.30080 (higher resistance).
Ensure confirmation with a strong breakout above the neckline.
Partial profits can be taken at TP1, moving the stop loss to breakeven for a risk-free trade.
If the price closes below 1.25861, the setup is invalidated, and no entry should be made.
UK inflation report to provide fresh GBP/USD setupsGBP/USD would likely be a lot higher heading into today’s UK inflation report if not for the Ukraine headlines yesterday. The bullish pin coming a day after a bullish engulfing candle says as much, reflective of plenty of willing buyers below 1.2613.
With RSI (14) breaking its downtrend and MACD looking like it may soon flick higher, momentum also looks to be in the early stages of turning, adding weight to the price signals over the past two sessions. While the near-term bias is bullish, entry for potential longs will be determined by the UK inflation report due out shortly.
The annual headline rate is expected to accelerate to 2.2% from 1.7%, although traders may want to put more weight on the core and services figures given noise created by base effects. The former is seen easing a tenth to 3.1% while services is tipped to remain sticky at 4.9%, reflecting the impact of continued strength in wages growth.
However, domestic factors have not been highly influential over GBP/USD moves recently, as demonstrated by the extremely tight inverse relationship with US benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields over the past fortnight.
If the relationship persists, use the reaction to the report to evaluate the merit of setups.
If we see a dip towards 1.2613, you could buy with a tight stop beneath for protection. 1.2720 would be the initial target with 1.2803 the next after that. Another option would be to wait to see whether the price can break above 1.2720, allowing for longs to be established with a stop below. 1.2083/200DMA would be the first target. Beyond, the uptrend dating back to May is also on the radar. It’s found around 1.2930 today.
If the price were to break and hold below 1.2613, the bullish bias would be invalidated.
Good luck!
DS