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GBPUSD & DXY Forex Update: Key Triggers and Market Insights📅 Today, we're diving into the Forex market, specifically analyzing the GBPUSD pair. Previously, we examined this pair on the weekly time frame, and now I’ll provide an update with new entry points marked on the chart. 🔄 Weekly Time Frame Analysis In our previous analysis, we identified 1.28019 as the first long trigger on the weekly chart. The price has since stabilized above this level and even activated the 59.01 trigger on the RSI. As mentioned before, the next target is 1.31921, and with a 230-pip distance, this level can offer a significant profit to those who entered long positions following the breakout. 🧲 Curved Trend Line We also have a curved trend line in this area, which can inject substantial momentum into the market and push the price upwards. If this trend line breaks, we can expect a trend reversal and a potential downward move. 📊 Trend Health Check Checking the health of the trend, we notice that each successive bullish wave has weakened while the red candles remain powerful. However, the RSI shows no signs of trend weakness or divergence, and the price has managed to create a higher high. Thus, despite the weakened upward trend, the price has managed to start a robust new trend and cover its previous weaknesses. 📈 Target and Rest Period Upon reaching 1.31921, the price will likely take a rest before creating new market structures, allowing us to find new triggers for decisions. If this area breaks, the next target on the weekly chart is 1.36736. 📉 Bearish Scenario If the price reverses the entire recent upward move and breaks the curved trend line, activating the 1.26262 trigger, we can expect a downward movement. The main trigger is 1.23585, with targets at 1.20909 and 1.18253. 📅 Daily Time Frame Analysis Let's examine the daily time frame to observe price behavior in more detail. After multiple tests of the 1.28019 resistance, the price finally stabilized above it, driven significantly by the recent US CPI news which weakened the US dollar, causing pairs against the dollar to rise. 📰 US CPI Impact The US CPI report showed a decrease in inflation, causing the DXY to drop. Lower inflation reduces investment appeal in the country, leading to a weaker currency. As the dollar weakens, pairs like GBPUSD rise. 💣 RSI and Momentum The RSI has entered the overbought (OB) zone, indicating strong bullish momentum in the market. The price hasn't taken a break, showing only one red candle in the last 12 and forming no structures for a clear trigger. 🎈 SMA99 As previously mentioned, the SMA99 acts like a black hole, pulling prices towards it if they move too far away. Currently, the price isn't too far from the SMA99, suggesting more upward movement potential. However, if it moves too far, the SMA99's "black hole" effect could come into play. 📈 Long Position Strategy For a long position in this time frame, we should wait for the price to form a new structure. We could also look at lower time frames like 4-hour or 1-hour charts to find suitable long triggers. In this time frame, patience is key before opening a long position. 📉 Short Position Strategy The short position trigger remains the same as on the weekly chart. We need to wait for the curved trend line to break and activate the 1.26262 or 1.23585 triggers. 🔍 DXY Chart Analysis The DXY chart on the daily time frame shows a large ascending triangle, with a previous false breakout and a move back up from the 100.883 support. The recent upward move failed to reach the 107.017 resistance and turned back from 106.338, a strong supply area making it difficult for the price to stabilize above this range. 🔫 Short-Term DXY View On a smaller scale, the DXY has a ranging box between 104.039 and 106.338. The recent upward move couldn’t reach the box ceiling, and with the main ceiling at 107.017, this confirms significant upward trend weakness. 🪓 RSI Confirmation A drop below 38.71 in the RSI confirms the entry of bearish momentum into the market. If the price breaks the ascending trend line and stabilizes below 104.039, downward momentum will drive the market. 📰 Fundamental Weakness in USD As highlighted in the GBPUSD analysis, the USD is weakening fundamentally, adding another layer of confirmation for a potential DXY decline. 🎯 DXY Targets The initial target for a DXY drop is 102.688, with a second target at 100.883. Upon reaching these targets, the price will likely range for an extended period, forming a new structure for either a drop or a rise. 🧠💼 Always remember that trading futures involves inherent risks, and improper risk management can lead to margin calls. Stick to your capital management principles and use stop-loss orders, aiming for an initial risk-to-reward ratio of 2. 🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please like and share this analysis. Feel free to leave your comments or suggest a coin you'd like me to analyze next.
Long
by itsparham96
1
Is Bitcoin dominance on the verge of collapse?For anyone interested in crypto tokens that are not Bitcoin or Ethereum, you’ll want to give this post your full attention! The above 10 day chart is very important for anyone speculating on alt tokens. The highlights: 1) Bitcoin dominance support and RSI support have broken market structure. That’s not my opinion, it is a fact of the chart. 2) Significant bearish divergence has printed at the breakout. Look left. (little red/green shapes). The number of oscillators printing divergence is shown. The higher the number the more significant the divergence. The divergence is measured over a period of weeks. 3) Support was held for 2.5 years (930/950 days) before the break of market structure. This is exactly the same length of time during dominance support from 2017 until 2019. Coincidence? 4) Given point 1 through 3, what happened to the alt token market from the period of November 2019 until May 1st 2021? Significant gains. See chart below. 5) This is all good news for alt tokens, right? Yes and no. In the “Alt token market to 10x” idea (link below) it was written “Not all tokens will enjoy gains in this bull run”. That remains the situation, legacy tokens such as ADA, DASH, EOS, LTC, MATIC, etc.. they continue to show no signs of supporting market structure on either USD or BTC pairs . Maybe that changes in time, but for now, no. Ww Alt token market November 2019 until May 1st 2021
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by without_worries
23
Bitcoin: Exploring Long-Term and Short-Term Scenarios📅 Let's dive into today's analysis, focusing on Bitcoin in the 1D time frame to examine both long-term and short-term scenarios. 🔍 Daily Time Frame Analysis Bitcoin has experienced a decline after breaking the support at 60303, producing a large, high-volume candle and also breaking the 58429 level. However, it has not yet managed to stabilize below this area and is currently in a resting phase. ⌛️ Recent Market Behavior Not much time has passed since the last analysis, and as predicted, after the selloff candle, the market entered a ranging phase with reduced volatility. This has indeed occurred, with volume decreasing during the ranging market. The long upper shadows on recent candles indicate that sellers have the upper hand and bearish momentum is present. 🧲 SMA25 Analysis The SMA25 indicator had moved away from the candles, contributing to the market's ranging and pullback behavior. One of the properties of moving averages is that they attract the price towards themselves like a black hole, or the price ranges until the moving average reaches it. As the SMA25 approaches the candles, we can expect new bearish momentum to enter the market. If the price stabilizes above this moving average, the trend could potentially become bullish again. Confirmation of this breakout would be with a candle stabilizing above 60303. 📊 Volume Analysis The volume is strongly confirming the trend. During declines, the volume increases, and during upward corrections, the volume decreases. This indicates that the volume is converging with the Medium Wave Cycle (MWC) trend and could also influence the High Wave Cycle (HWC) trend. 📈 Bullish Confirmation Relying solely on SMA for bullish confirmation is not very reliable due to its high error rate. From a price action perspective, if we want to confirm a bullish market, we can expect the price to move upwards with stabilization above the 63018 area. The target for this move could be the next resistance at 71607. Breaking 45.39 in the RSI can also confirm this upward breakout. 📉 Bearish Scenarios In case of further market decline, there is a significant support around the 55k area, which is more visible in the 4-hour time frame and coincides with the 0.5 Fibonacci level. If this area is broken, we can expect the price to move at least to the 0.618 area, which is a logical target from a price action perspective and lies between 50k and 53k. This is a very important area that can prevent further price decline. The last support is at 46969, and if the price stabilizes below this support, the HWC trend in Bitcoin will change from bullish to bearish. 🛒 Buying Strategy in Spot For buying Bitcoin in the spot market, it is better to wait until buying volume enters the market and the price stabilizes above 63471. This assumes the price moves upwards without creating a ranging box for buying. If the price ranges in the current area, we can buy upon breaking the range ceiling. If the price starts to decline, we can buy spot with confirmation from candles in the 50k or 46k areas. Be sure to manage your capital and set stop-losses to limit potential losses if the market declines further. 🧠💼 Always remember that trading futures involves inherent risks, and improper risk management can lead to margin calls. Stick to your capital management principles and use stop-loss orders, aiming for an initial risk-to-reward ratio of 2. 🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please like and share this analysis. Feel free to leave your comments or suggest a coin you'd like me to analyze next.
Short
by itsparham96
TrueFI (TRU) - 350% returnOn the above 4-day chart price action has corrected 75% since March. A number of reasons now exist to be long, including: 1) Price action and RSI resistance breakouts. 2) Significant bullish divergence. Multiple oscillators print positive divergence with price action. 3) Bull flag break out with 350% target projection. Is it possible price action prints lower highs? Sure. Is it probable? no. Ww Type: trade Risk: <=6% Time to act: days Return: 350%
Long
by without_worries
39
This Bitcoin signal has a 71% winrate.This signal purely based on RSI happened only 7 times on the daily chart history of BTCUSD. The formula is the following: RSI is at the 50 days lowest and is rising for 3 bars, and is lower than the 160 days RSI with 5 (as RSI value) added and RSI is below 37.5 Signal history: 3 April 2014: 46% move up 18 August 2014: fail 16 June 2018: 30% move up 27 November 2018: +200% move up 22 May 2021: 80% move up 13 December 2021: fail 26 August 2023: 173% move up Total Winners * 100 / Total Trades = 5 * 100 / 7 = 71.4% Winrate Average winning trade: +105.8% Important Note: The rarity of the signal (only 7 times) induces that a small amount of backtest data, and should not be used as sole indicator in your trading.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by cyatophilum
Why I think GBPUSD Will Sell...Technical AnalysisHey Rich Friends, Here is my technical analysis for GBPUSD on the 4-Hour timeframe. Remember to cross reference your own chart/indicators and check the news for additional confirmations. I think GBPUSD and other USD majors will sell and here is what I am looking at: - The candles have already rejected the previous supply zone - Tweezer top candle pattern formed. This is a bearish confirmation for me - The Stochastic is facing down, the slow line (orange) is above the fast line (blue) and both lines have crossed below 80. These are 3 bearish confirmations on the stochastic for me For additional confirmation: - Wait for the current candle to cross and close below the 10 EMA (purple) - Wait for the slow line (orange) to cross below 70 - Wait for the 10 EMA (purple) to cross above the 3 EMA (blue) I entered at market execution and set sell limits in the highlighted areas. My SL will be at a previous high and I will target previous lows for my TPs. Great luck if you take those trade and let me know if you have any questions. Peace and Profits, Cha
Short
by MoneyMantraCha
2
Is Celestia poised for a further upswing?Before it emerged as the highest gainer today, Celestia reached its lowest price since November 2023 on July 5. The price as of then was $4.78, meaning it was 80% down from its ATH. According to the daily TIA/USDT chart, the extended decline led to a descending channel formation. This pattern is bearish as it shows lower highs and lower lows during the period marred by a downturn and consolidation in between. From the chart above, bulls seem to have taken advantage of the decline by creating a good level of demand between $5.06 and $6.09. If sustained, Celestia may continue to experience a breakout to the upside. Another look at the daily chart shows that TIA has risen above the 20-day EMA (blue). EMA stands for Exponential Moving Average, and it measures trend direction over a period of time. If the price is below the EMA, the trend is bearish. But when it is above it, the trend is bullish. Therefore, as long as TIA stays above the threshold, the price can continue to increase. Furthermore, the token is on the brink of breaking above the 50-day EMA (yellow) at $7.51. If bulls successfully breach this region, the next target for the token will be $8.07. In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 51. The RSI measures momentum by measuring the speed and size of price changes. Thus, since TIA’s RSI has surpassed the midpoint, momentum is bullish. If the RSI continues to rise, the value of the token may also follow in the same direction, with short-term targets between $8.07 and $9.16.
Long
by paul_endeo
Potential Short Opportunity for BTC/USD at $61,000Overview: In this analysis, I present a short trade setup for BTC/USD with an entry point around $61,000. This idea is based on the confluence of volume profile levels and Fibonacci retracement zones. Volume Profile Analysis: The volume profile indicates significant trading activity around the $61,000 level, which suggests it as a strong resistance zone. This implies that there may be considerable selling pressure once the price reaches this level. Fibonacci Retracement: Applying the Fibonacci retracement from the swing high to the recent swing low, the 0.618 retracement level aligns closely with the $61,000 mark. This confluence adds strength to the resistance at this level, providing a high-probability short entry. RSI and ADX Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently showing bearish divergence, indicating a potential reversal or pullback. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is at a high level, suggesting a strong trend which could soon see a correction. Trade Setup: Entry : Short at $61,000 Stop Loss : Above the $62,500 level to allow some room for potential volatility. Target : First target at $56,000 (next significant volume node), second target at $50,000 (support zone and 1.618 Fibonacci extension). Conclusion: This trade setup leverages technical analysis tools to identify a high-probability short entry point. As always, ensure proper risk management and adjust the trade parameters based on market conditions.
Short
by wittawatkhondee55
2
USDCAD 1D Analysis: Anticipating a Breakout📅 Let's dive into today's analysis. We'll be focusing on the USDCAD pair in the 1D time frame. ⌛️ Long-term Range Box In the 1D time frame, we observe a large, long-term range box that spans 664 days. This box has experienced a complete High Wave Cycle (HWC) range, which is confirmed by the flat SMA99, indicating minimal slope and nearly flat movement over a long period. ♟ Key Levels Range Box Bottom: 1.31434 Range Box Top: 1.38725 Breaking either of these lines will likely initiate a new trend for the HWC. Medium Wave Cycle (MWC) Support: 1.35973 MWC Resistance: 1.37805 🪤 Momentum Indicators As discussed in yesterday’s analysis, momentum oscillators like RSI are less effective in range-bound markets. In this case, although the RSI broke the 43.14 support, the market did not gain bearish momentum because of the ranging condition. This exemplifies why RSI should not be heavily relied upon in such scenarios. 📉 Bearish Scenario If a candle closes below the 1.35973 area, we can expect the price to move towards the bottom of the range box at 1.31434. This support is crucial and could push the price back to the top of the range. 📈 Bullish Scenario Conversely, if the price breaks above 1.37805, it may move towards the top of the box at 1.38725. However, this move is less likely due to the weakness observed in the green candles, indicating weaker buyer strength. 🔍 Candle Analysis Examining the candles shows that reaching the top of the range box takes significant time, with small green candles. Conversely, reaching the bottom of the box from the top happens quickly with strong red candles. Given the weak green candles in the latest upward move that didn't even reach the top of the box, the likelihood of a downward breakout is higher. 🎯 Target Levels In case of a downward breakout, switching to the weekly time frame helps identify important levels: First Target: 1.30183 (0.5 Fibonacci level) Second Target: 1.27624 Third Target: 1.22926 (a very significant support for this pair) 📝 Conclusion The USDCAD pair is currently trading within a long-term range, showing weak buyer momentum and stronger bearish tendencies. A breakout from this range, particularly to the downside, seems more probable given the current market conditions. Traders should watch key levels closely for confirmation and be ready to act accordingly once a breakout occurs. 🧠💼 Always remember that trading futures involves inherent risks, and improper risk management can lead to margin calls. Stick to your capital management principles and use stop-loss orders, aiming for an initial risk-to-reward ratio of 2. 🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please like and share this analysis. Feel free to leave your comments or suggest a pair you'd like me to analyze next.
Short
by itsparham96
1
Historically Warm Weather to Support Natural Gas PricesAfter the second quarter relief rally and the five-month peak, Natural Gas registered a four-week decline. This has shifted bias to the downside again, creating scope for further losses towards 1.940. However, a look at the daily chart shows that NGAS tries to react at the lower border of the Ichimoku Cloud. Furthermore, a Golden Cross (EMA50 crossing above the EMA200) has been formed, which is often viewed as a precursor of sustained growth. This technical formation compliments the favorable fundamentals, as demand is set to increase this year, while key drillers lower their activity. Although the world shifts to renewables, Natural Gas is seen a bridge fuel facilitating this transition. Furthermore, it is heavily used in electricity generation, being the top source in the US and No2 globally. June was the thirteenth straight month of record high temperatures according to Copernicus, which can provide another tailwind for energy demand during the summer months. This in turn can increase Natural gas consumption and support prices. As a result, NGAS can reclaim the EMA200 that would give control to the bulls and the ability to push for the June peak (3.164). The upside contains multiple technical roadblocks though and there are risks to the upbeat supply-demand dynamics. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:NGASLong
by FXCM
1
Bitcoin ALL-TIME-HIGH is STILL COMING: Here's WhyA hint... the RSI. The RSI is one of those reliable old-timers, especially useful in higher timeframes to determine longer period price action, such as near term and long term. Together with Elliot Wave Theory, I'm going to present to you an argument for why Bitcoin is STILL BULLISH and what my strategy/expectation is for the coming weeks. I'll also share key metrics to watch and do regular updates should the conditions mentioned in the video be met. Although I am short term bearish, I remain longer term bullish, making it really impossible to label this post as solely "short" or "long". Cheers to the Top10%'ers 🥂 __________________________ BINANCE:BTCUSDT
by CryptoCheck-
1
Polkastarter (POLS)On the above 3-day chart price action has corrected over 90% since the sell signal in October 2021 (not shown). Now is a good opportunity to go long. Why? 1) A strong buy signal prints. (not shown). 2) Price action resistance breakout. 3) Strong positive divergence between price action and multiple oscillators. This divergence occurs over a 90 day period. The idea is a mirror copy of the LCX idea 48hrs ago. Is it possible price action could fall further? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww Type: trade Risk: <=6% of portfolio Timeframe: Don’t know. Return: Don’t know.
PLong
by without_worries
2