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Zero Spread Milestone: Strategic Trade in Micro Yield FuturesIntroduction The current market scenario presents a unique potential opportunity in the yield spread between Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (10Y1!) and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (2YY1!). This spread is reaching a critical price point of zero, likely acting as a strong resistance. Such a rare situation opens the door for a strategic trading opportunity where traders can consider shorting the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures and buying the Micro 2-Year Yield Futures. In TradingView, this spread is visualized using the symbol 10Y1!-CBOT_MINI:2YY1!. The combination of technical indicators suggests a mean reversion trade setup, making this a compelling moment for traders to act on such a potential opportunity. The alignment of overbought signals from Bollinger Bands® and the RSI indicator further strengthens the case for a reversal, presenting an intriguing setup for informed traders. All of this is following last Wednesday, July 31, 2024, when the FED reported their decision related to interest rates where they left them unchanged, adding further context to the current market dynamics. Yield Futures Contract Specifications Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (10Y1!): Price Quotation: Quoted in yield with a minimum fluctuation of 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum). Tick Value: Each tick is worth $1. Margin Requirements: Approximately $320 per contract (subject to change based on market conditions). Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (2YY1!): Price Quotation: Quoted in yield with a minimum fluctuation of 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum). Tick Value: Each tick is worth $1. Margin Requirements: Approximately $330 per contract (subject to change based on market conditions). Margin Requirements: The margin requirements for these contracts are relatively low, making them accessible for retail traders. However, traders must ensure they maintain sufficient margin in their accounts to cover potential market movements and avoid margin calls. Understanding Futures Spreads What is a Futures Spread? A futures spread is a trading strategy that involves simultaneously buying and selling two different futures contracts with the aim of profiting from the difference in their prices. This difference, known as the spread, can fluctuate based on various market factors, including interest rates, economic data, and investor sentiment. Futures spreads are often used to hedge risks, speculate on price movements, or take advantage of relative value differences between related instruments. Advantages of Futures Spreads: Reduced Risk: Spreads generally have lower risk compared to outright futures positions because the two legs of the spread can offset each other. Lower Margin Requirements: Exchanges often set lower margin requirements for spread trades compared to single futures contracts because the risk is typically lower. Leverage Relative Value: Traders can take advantage of price discrepancies between related contracts, potentially profiting from their convergence or divergence. Yield Spread Example: In the context of Micro 10-Year Yield Futures and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures, a yield spread trade involves buying (or shorting) one contract (10Y1! Or 2YY1!) while shorting (or buying) the other. This trade is based on the expectation that the spread between these two yields will move in a specific direction, such as narrowing or widening. The current scenario (detailed below), where the spread is reaching zero, suggests a significant resistance level, providing a unique trading opportunity for mean reversion. Analysis Method Technical Indicators: Bollinger Bands® and RSI 1. Bollinger Bands®: The spread between the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (10Y1!) and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (2YY1!) is currently above the upper Bollinger Band on both the daily and weekly timeframes. This indicates potential overbought conditions, suggesting that a price reversal might be imminent. 2. RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is clearly overbought on the daily timeframe, signaling a possible mean reversion trade. When the RSI reaches such elevated levels, it often indicates that the current trend may be losing momentum, opening the door for a reversal. Chart Analysis Daily Spread Chart of 10Y1! - 2YY1! The main article daily chart above displays the spread between 10Y1! and 2YY1!, highlighting the current position above the upper Bollinger Band. The RSI indicator also shows overbought conditions, reinforcing the potential for a mean reversion. Weekly Spread Chart of 10Y1! - 2YY1! The above weekly chart further confirms the spread's position above the upper Bollinger Band. This longer-term view provides additional context and supports the likelihood of a reversal. Conclusion: Combining the insights from both Bollinger Bands® and RSI provides a compelling rationale for the trading opportunity. The spread reaching the upper Bollinger Band on multiple timeframes, along with an overbought RSI, strongly suggests that the current overextended condition is potentially unsustainable. Additionally, all of this is occurring around the key price level of zero, which can act as a significant psychological and technical resistance. This convergence of technical indicators and the critical price level points to a high probability for a potential mean reversion, making it an opportune moment to analyze shorting the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (10Y1!) and buying the Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (2YY1!) as the spread is expected to revert towards its mean. Trade Setup Entry: The strategic trade involves shorting the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (10Y1!) and buying the Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (2YY1!) around the price point of 0. This is based on the analysis that the spread reaching zero can act as a strong resistance level. Target: As we expect the 20 SMA to move with each daily update, instead of targeting -0.188, we aim for a mean reversion to approximately -0.15. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss slightly above the recent highs of the spread. The daily ATR (Average True Range) value is 0.046, so adding this to the entry price could be a way to implement a volatility stop. This accounts for potential volatility and limits the downside risk of the trade. Reward-to-Risk Ratio: Calculate the reward-to-risk ratio based on the entry, target, and stop loss levels. For example, if the entry is at 0.04, the target is -0.15, and the stop loss is at 0.09, the reward-to-risk ratio can be calculated as follows: Reward: 0.19 points = $190 Risk: 0.05 = $50 Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 0.19 / 0.05 = 3.8 : 1 Importance of Risk Management Defining Risk Management: Risk management is crucial to limit potential losses and ensure long-term trading success. It involves identifying, analyzing, and taking proactive steps to mitigate risks associated with trading. Using Stop Loss Orders: Always use stop loss orders to prevent significant losses and protect capital. A stop loss order automatically exits a trade when the price reaches a predetermined level, limiting the trader's loss. Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure: Clearly define your risk exposure to avoid unexpected large losses. This involves defining the right position size based on the trader’s risk management rules by setting maximum loss limits per trade and overall portfolio. Precise Entries and Exits: Accurate entry and exit points are essential for successful trading. Well-timed entries and exits can maximize profits and minimize losses. Other Important Considerations: Diversify your trades to spread risk across different assets. Regularly review and adjust your trading strategy based on market conditions. Stay informed about macroeconomic events and news that could impact the markets. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Education
by traddictiv
The JPY is ready to rise from a breakout of the longterm trendThe JPY technically is rising on increased momentum and during periods of uncertainty it is Safe Haven Status: The yen is often considered a safe-haven currency. During times of global economic uncertainty or geopolitical tension, investors tend to flock to safe-haven assets, including the JPY. If there are current or anticipated global risks, this could drive demand for the yen. Monetary Policy Divergence: If the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to tighten its monetary policy while other major central banks are either maintaining or easing their policies, the yen could strengthen. For example, if inflation in Japan is rising faster than expected, the BoJ might signal or implement interest rate hikes or other tightening measures.
PEPPERSTONE:JPYXLong
by lawmuic
Ton coin needs serious correction there is a strength stability in price of TON coin has accrued and its more because of advertisement in telegram community and many airdrops that their team working on it and millions of people are into it but historically the main trend in this market is more powerful. although Bitcoin is in the last legs of corrective movements and might be bounce from 52000~49000 zone but altcoins might be very surprising many times while BTC dropping -2 percent some coins might be drop more than 10 percent. by the way be carful about buying it and be responsible about money you have saved buy with strategy and split your budget in to 5-8 portions. buy placed your orders in support zones and do not all in at all.
Short
by Sepiknows
Trendline Trading Strategy - MAJOR Correction for $KAS THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND, until it isn’t. This is literally the easiest trading strategy that even a monkey can figure out. Find the major Trendline, and if it breaks, either A) Sell Your Position B) Open a Short Case in point: Seems like pretty much every coin has broken its trend, but I spent some time last night before bed seeing what was still holding up. Spotted CRYPTOCAP:KAS Putting it in context with the rest of the market nuking, I knew Kaspa was one of the last of the Mohicans so I opened my 3x Short. Today I wake up, and see it broke trend on the 4hr which gives us data for the next 3-5 days / 6-8 trades per month. P.S. YES that’s Bearish Divergence. ~JK
Short
by jonnieking
2
I think that it may be time to start building FET longs. Howdy everyone! This is a follow-up to my FET short trade idea. That short trade idea had two take profit areas within it, 1 of which we have already hit at approx. 1.42-1.20. The second take profit zone was just below at approx .90-.63. I think that we might be finding support in this current area, and the second short trade take profit area may not get hit this time around. So this idea is based upon a long position in between the two take profit zones from that idea. We've been as low as 1.06, and we are currently sitting at 1.18. I am suggesting starting your long positions in this current trading range. My suggested take profits from this current trading range are: approx: 1.98, 2.50, and 3.00. We could at any time between now and hitting any of these targets turn around and hit the lower short trade target of .90-.63, so that is why I am giving at least 3 take profit points. My current next big target if we make a new high in the markets is 3.94ish. Anyway, I do appreciate your collaboration!
Long
by LoneWolf1425
11
First sign of KASPA ($KAS) turning bullish vs BTCKAS had fallen below the golden pocket and tested the (thick orange) 200 daily SMA, but failed on the 8Mar. It had since remained below the 78.6% Fib retrace lvl after an attempt to retest the 200 SMA again on the 22Mar. I had been slowly accumulating more KAS below the 78.6% Fib lvl and have now doubled my KAS holdings; after having stopped DCAing into KAS after it had previously pierced above 0.05USD (see the previous 5Nov2023 chart analysis tag). It remained below the 78.6% Fib lvl until 25May, where it first held support, finally, above the red 21 daily EMA ( setting a second higher low ). It subsequently retested the 78.6% Fib lvl again on the 28May and eventually bounced off the 21 EMA to successfully pierced above the 78.6% Fib lvl as the resistance line on the 2Jun. If the following daily candles continues to hold above the 78.6% Fib, the next level to look out for is the orange 200 SMA line , still lingering just below the golden pocket . If KAS is able to pierce above the 200 SMA into the golden pocket, this will set up KAS to retest the 0.5% Fib level, which if successful, it would then very likely continue to pierce above the relatively much weaker 38.2% and 23.6% Fib resistance levels for another revisit of the ATH and to hopefully set a new ATH for a blue sky breakout .
Long
by cybernetwork
Double Bottom w/ Break of Confirmation!! - EGHere I have EUR/GBP on the Daily chart! The Lows @ .83972 & .83827 seem to have found enough Support in this Zone since its last visit back in the summer of 2022! After BOE decided to cut their Interest Rates to 5% on Thursday, we see the end of the week gave us quite a Bullish close above the Lower High @ .8490 CONFIRMING the Double Bottom Reversal Pattern!! With the: -Divergence of Price vs RSI @ Level of Support -Break of Structure from LL to HH -and Price on RSI Above 50 *All that's left is to wait for Price to retrace back down to the .8490 area where the Break of Confirmation of Pattern happened for some potential Buy Opportunities!!
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
1
ZIG/USDT: Potential Bullish Reversal After Key Support Retest#ZIG/USDT #Analysis Description --------------------------------------------------------------- + ZIG/USDT is currently testing a critical support zone around $0.115 after a strong bullish rally. + The 100-day EMA is acting as dynamic support, suggesting a potential bullish reversal if this level holds. + RSI is around 43, indicating a neutral stance with the possibility of an oversold bounce, leading to higher targets. --------------------------------------------------------------- VectorAlgo Trade Details ------------------------------ Entry Price: Around $0.115 on support confirmation or above $0.145 on a breakout Stop Loss: below $0.09 ------------------------------ Target 1: $0.145 Target 2: $0.21 Target 3: $0.24 ------------------------------ Timeframe: 1D (Daily) Capital Risk: 1-2% of trading amount Leverage: 5-10x --------------------------------------------------------------- Enhance, Trade, Grow --------------------------------------------------------------- Feel free to share your thoughts and insights. Don't forget to like and follow us for more trading ideas and discussions. Best Regards, VectorAlgo
Long
by VectorAlgo