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Opec

Possible price action following surprize oil draw pre OPEC meetThe -6M draw on Wednesday took many by surprise, and sounds like oil is being moved around rather than being used up. The price action following the news was subdued, as if there is no enthusiasm for what would have been very bullish news under normal circumstances, given the Fed didn't hike and DXY took a steep fall. OPEC side meeting in Algiers is on Wed 28th, with further rumors that it could be a full blown meeting. That in itself suggests that there is very little possibility of agreement. If you can't organize a meeting, what chance is there of organizing a freeze, or what they really need, a production cut. Do opec really want higher prices, or are they satisfied to be putting further pressure on small US shale producers. If the oil majors want a piece of the shale pie, lower prices might suit them as well, especially if they are well hedged. On 28th expect big price moves. Move to the upside not guaranteed IMHO.
TVC:USOILShort
by TreeDoc
SPX: Short term updateWe have to keep in mind that next week we have OPEC's meeting on the 27th, and factor in that by Friday 30th, the weekly uptrend time expires, and we could expect a loss of bullish momentum, and a return to 2052.40. I think this is a lower probability occurrence, and will look to long and reasess as we go forward. Like I explain in my $SPY chart in related ideas, we have longer term signals that might pan out, and a possible short squeeze propelling us higher, so I remain bullish in the short term while we don't dip under 2133.6 here. Buying now, or buying dips to 2149.1 will remain my favored strategy for $SPX. Meanwhile I intend to hold my other longer term positions, in case the October close confirms the 2-month uptrend target of 2516. There's a chance oil breaks out into an uptrend too, but it's a lower probability event, so also factor that in. (See chart in comments) If we do break out and rally, coming back to test the levels on chart would give an actionable level to buy against as well. So, mark these on your charts: 2164.6 2136.3 2108.1 Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
FX:SPX500Long
by IvanLabrie
USOIL & UKOIL: IEA MONTHLY OIL MARKET REPORT HIGHLIGHTSGlobal demand growth revised lower is downside pressure for oil and more bad news for the commodity.. Short cad or oil are firm proxies to play this. 44.7 next target lower before 43.6. Weve seen oil move 2% lower on the day already on the back of the news, more downside today may struggle but I wouldnt be surprised. Fed/ weak dollar may hinder further downside moves so engaging short on rallies is perhaps more prudent that broad shorts.. especially in this very choppy oil market. IEA MONTHLY OIL MARKET REPORT: -Global Oil Demand Growth Is Slowing At A Faster Pace Than Initially Predicted. For 2016, A Gain Of 1.3 Mb/D Is Expected -World Oil Supplies Fell By 0.3 Mb/D In August, Dragged Lower By Non-OPEC -OPEC Crude Production Edged Up To 33.47 Mb/D In August - Testing Record Rates As Middle East Producers Opened The Taps -Anaemic Outlook For Refining Throughput Extends Further Amid Downward Revisions To Our 2H16 Forecast -OECD Total Inventories Built By 32.5 Mb In July To A Fresh Record Of 3 111 Mb -Expects First Quarterly Crude Stock Draw In More Than Two Years
TVC:USOILShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
UWTI headed to $28-30 in a week if dollar doesnt strenghten muchToday's oil stockpiles report is bullish and possibly will have positive effect on the oil price. Not really sure what caused such a draw in the supplies, but looks good. OPEC talks this month also will affect the price positively if we see some good headings. Taking these in consideration $50 oil is not so far away, so is the $UWTI price of $30. Now the bad - USD is looking to strengthen, OPEC may not deliver with talks and we might go back to $43-44 oil.
ULong
by baxds
Summer is over.. But the gas tank is still full. This trade Idea is a transfer of our open short from prior published idea. Summer is over so it's time to track our action on our daily chart. The old charts remain available but get too busy with notes. Our transferred short was entered over the last two months at an average of $47.10. Its clear that this summers consumption has done little to reduce available oil. The US is importing oil at record amounts... Not to use, but to store. Storage and pipeline services are booming. There are massive physical hedges going on oil, this requires longterm capital. Not something to store oil in just out behind the barn. This storage needs utilization for years... Not just a few quarters. Our target still remains WTI @ 38 by the end of the year. We have now seen oil leave the only active up channel.. I had not expected it to drop outside of the latest micro channel (after drop to 45.5). I do not anticipate a newer, steeper micro channel to form... but will watch for it. More likely it will increase in volatility until the (no change) opec meeting is over on 27th. Until then lots of opportunities for day traders as long as they go with Trend & Fundamentals. Out swing-trade timeline lets us go outside .. But we will add to our shorts on spikes when they warrant. For now we are holding short.
FX:USOILShort
by BigEz
Will Putin's Intervention Rally Oil? Watch 46.00 For CluesAccording to a new Bloomberg interview Mr Putin is pushing for OPEC and Iran to halt oil supply in order to rally prices above $50 a barrel. The measure of success will be a close above $46.00 as it was breakout above this level that previously took oil above $50.00. Given the nature of oil any major exporter announcing they want to cut supply should provoke a short term rally and 46.00 is in view given Friday's close failed to break the 61.80% fib level. A sell trade is still on the cards with price failing to close above 44.64 where we have prior structure so now it's a matter of waiting for exhausted candles at this level or if we see a spike upwards from Mr Putin's words.
FX:USOIL
by Elliot_Myers
2
Fund. will channel/squeeze until OPEC. Watching inv/rig countTA memo to myself charting possible contingencies. USOIL to follow fundamentals/EIA/API/Rigs and channel/squeeze until September OPEC meeting. Currently at 46.60ish. EIA report was bearish but less bearish than the API report. I am still tempted for potential break-out buy point is at 46.00ish? But another more realistic possibility for me--if last week was just a sign of major short squeeze and we are now at a neutral zone, then we may go back towards the another major short after a failed OPEC meeting. But, because of looming OPEC meeting and rumors of a supposed cap, we may have a little tug of war between the bulls and bears resulting in a channel. Fundamentals point to bearish: As of today, EIA, API, Baker Hughes are bearish. Technicals: The pullback is week compared to the jump; but again, the last few week jumps have been supposedly a major short covering and this pull back is likely a neutral pullback. Conclusion: sideways movement again until the OPEC meeting as news goes back and forth. Prediction: The week of the OPEC meeting, possible sell-off because OPEC will probably not fall through again.
FX:USOIL
by MichaelHua
COMMODITIES - GOLD & OIL: GS WHAT'S DRIVING THE MARKET TODAYGOLDMAN SACHS - COMMODITIES: WHAT'S DRIVING THE MARKET TODAY The One-Liner Commodities broadly higher with weaker USD. Copper trading higher after failing to break $4750 in recent days. The Fundamental Highlights Energy: Crude marginally higher with spreads and cracks largely unchanged. The Iranian Oil Minister has not yet decided whether he will attend the Algeria IEF15 meeting at the end of Sept, with the country not expecting to hit their pre-sanction production before the meeting (their longstanding condition of joining a production freeze). Elsewhere, Nigeria has said that it sees OPEC cuts as unlikely. Industrial Metals: Base metals trading broader higher over the session, with Nickel (-1.5%) the significant outlier with Philippines expecting to complete environmental audit this month. Copper is trading well with Antofagasta CEO Ivan Arriagada saying the company is focused on profit rather than maximizing production and that output will be at the lower end of its 710,00- to 740,000 mt target. Copper vols are unchanged on the session, although were once again marked lower into the close yesterday with Sep ATM vol now 18v (-0.5v) vs realized at 15.8v. Bulks: Ferrous metals have rallied however with Iron Ore +3.8%, Rebar +4%, Coking Coal +6% as a reiteration by the NDRC that they are less than half way through their steel and coal capacity cuts, and an announcement that they are planning a new 3-year infra stimulus programme for the northeast. China has promised 45mt of steel capacity cuts and 250mt of coal capacity cuts this year, but so far has only reached 47% and 38% of each target respectively. Precious Metals: Gold stronger over the London morning (+1%), moving in tandem with the weaker USD. Gold ATM vols are largely unchanged this morning, although worth noting that Gold 1m realized vol fell to 12m lows yesterday. Participation feels light of late with aggregate OI 15% off the post Brexit highs. The ETF added 220k oz as of Friday’s data point, which doesn’t explain the $20 sell off into the close on Friday.
FX:USOIL
by QuantumLogicTrading
USOIL/ UKOIL: IEA MONTHLY OIL MARKET REVIEW WTI & BRENTIEA Monthly Oil Market Review: -IEA Keeps World Oil Demand Growth Forecast at 1.4M B/D in 2016 -IEA Downgrades World Oil Demand Growth to 1.2M B/D in 2017 -IEA Sees Lower Oil Demand Growth on Dimmer Macroeconomic Outlook -IEA Sees Lower Oil Demand Growth on Dimmer Macroeconomic Outlook -IEA Says Global Oil Supply Up 800,000 B/D in July on Higher OPEC, Non-OPEC Output -Non-OPEC Output Seen Falling by 900,000 B/D in 2016--IEA -Non-OPEC Output Will See Growth of 300,000 B/D in 2017--IEA -OPEC July Output Rose 150,000 B/D to 8-Year High of 33.39M B/D on Saudi, Iraq--IEA -Saudi July Output Hit Record 10.62M B/D, Up 120,000 B/D From June-IEA -IEA Says Kuwait and the UAE Pumped at Their Highest Ever Levels -IEA: Non-OPEC Supplies Output Rose by 550,000 B/D in July, to 56.7M B/D -IEA Says Expects More Subdued Growth in Refining Activity -IEA Says Crude Oil Balance Indicates Hefty Draw in Third Quarter -IEA Says Massive Stock Overhang Keeping Lid On Prices -IEA Says OECD Commercial Stocks Stood at 3.093B Barrels by End-June
FX:USOIL
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
Crude oil (WTI) Short to Medium Term Analysis The WTI Crude touched a Low of $40.55 last week after the release of inventory data (Last Wednesday) showing over Supply. The recent release of Chinese PMI data showing signs of Chinese economy slowing down further, which puts additional pressure on Oil going forward. Read More Here : Buyers Buy $41.10-$41.30 for targets of $44-$45 and a Stop below $40.40. Sellers Wait for the Bounce to complete and Short around $46 levels and stops around $48 targeting $35. I hope i have not disappointed anyone because i have something for everyone ;) But i am more biased towards the short side. Happy Trading People Cheers!! FX:USOIL
FX:USOILShort
by robin_bajaj_7
USOIL UKOIL: IEA MONTHLY OIL REPORT - BREXIT; DEMAND > SUPPLY 17The IEA Oil Market Report was largely in line with OPEC's assesment yesterday - Non OPEC output was seen falling in 2016 by 900,000 B/D - However, they differed on the 2017 perspective with 2017 expectations from the IEA forecasting a modest growth of 200,000 B/D in 2017. Opec Output however rose to an eight year high up 400,000 B/D in June at 3.21M B/D on the back of Saudia and Nigerian growth. On the margin the IEA actually came out on the margin relatively bearish for the oil market and its future - citing a global oil supply increase at +600,000 B/D to 96m in June - with Non OPEC seen at 55.9m B/D. Nonetheless, the IEA went out of their way to highlight that the oil market had made an extraordinary recovery from "Market Surplus" to "near balance" in Q2 2016. The IEA Uped the World Oil Demand Growth Forecast to 1.4M B/D in 2016 (up +0.1M B/D), whilst seeing World Oil Demand Growing by 1.3M B/D in 2017. On the margin it is unsure what the net forces are for 2016 and 2017's demand-supply balance will be, though a 1.4m B/D in 2016 increase in global oil demand growth outstrips the Non-opec 200,000 B/D increase in supply foretasted - this is medium term bullish for Oil . They remained on the fence with Brexit concerns which imo is a positive positioning for the oil market given there should be a negative bias Other notable statements were "There is still an ominous investment gap building up in the oil industry that might, depending on how quickly today's record high oil stocks are eroded, create the conditions for sharply higher prices over the medium term." and "Our underlying message that the market is heading to balance remains on track, but the modest fall back in oil prices in recent days to closer to $45/bbl is a reminder that the road ahead is far from smooth." - these comments in mind, traders should use this information to understand that volatility is likely to be higher so TP/SL should be adjusted accordingly to reduce the margin of error. Personally, i think further USD strength may continue to dull the oil market. IEA Monthly Oil Report Analysis: -IEA: Global Oil Supply Rose 600,000 B/D to 96M B/D in June -IEA: Non-OPEC Output Seen Falling by 900,000 B/D in 2016 -IEA: Non-OPEC Output Will See Modest Growth of 200,000 B/D in 2017 -IEA: Non-OPEC Output Rose in June by 205,000 B/D to 55.9M B/D on Partial Recovery in Canada -IEA: OPEC June Output Up 400,000 B/D to Eight-Year High of 33.21M B/D on Rise in Saudi, Nigeria -IEA: Says Saudi Arabia Ramped Up Output to Near-Record Rate of 10.45M B/D in June -IEA: Says Iranian Output Rose to 3.66M B/D in June, up 50,000 B/D From May -IEA: Says OECD Commercial Stocks Stood at Record 3,074 Million Barrels by End-May -IEA: Market Showing Extraordinary Transformation From Major Surplus to Near Balance in 2Q -IEA: Says High Oil stocks Are Threat to Recent Stability of Prices -IEA: Ups World Oil Demand Growth Forecast to 1.4M B/D in 2016 -IEA: Sees World Oil Demand Growing by 1.3M B/D in 2017 -IEA: Says Middle East Oil Output Rose to Record High of 31.5M B/D in June -IEA: Says Hard to Draw Conclusions About Brexit -IEA: Says High Oil Stocks Pose Threat to Price Stability www.iea.org
FX:USOILLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
Oil: rising wedge providing possible movementsThis rising wedge indicates a number of possibilities for the next movement in brent oil. Could be a trigger for a bearish move down, or provide further momentum up to the mid $50s. I think that given the views of the new Saudi oil minister al-Falih and the possible beginnings of a market rebalance following Saudi Arabia successfully pushing a chunk of the US out of the market (see Goldman Sachs), plus a wave of petrol demand in India, this will trigger the next move up towards $56 per barrel.
FX:UKOILLong
by olly_price
Oil is getting toppyMight make a spike towards $50, but regardless this is a good place to start shorting or to buy out-of-the-money puts for August 2016 at around 45-47. I'm not too bothered about not having a stop loss on my DWTI and CL options here... Oil isn't going anywhere.. Net long position near record highs Weakening Chinese demand Short squeeze is done Frackers aren't dead yet, the battle for marketshare between Saudi, US, and Russia continues. Is Dennis Gartman finally bullish of oil? LOL Most importantly, mainstream media collectively are now bullish of oil despite the fact that fundamentals have not changed. The only thing that's changed is the sentiment of the market participants oilprice.com www.bloomberg.com
FX:USOILShort
by LastBattle
4
As #OPEC Meets, #Crude May Feel DisappointedTomorrow, members of OPEC will meet in Vienna, and it is unlikely there will be any policy shifts. Despite the dire straits some OPEC members are in, such as Venezuela, the current crude production policy will likely remain until Iran and Russia agree to some sort of production resolution. MacroView has been overly bearish since June 2014 but indicating that the one key dynamic factor in crude prices would be supply (same goes for Brent and OPEC). Essentially, West Texas Intermediate would continue to see woes until there were meaningful cutbacks in crude production, which finally began to filter through on a combination of record-low rig counts and bankruptcies (yes, bankruptcies are bullish). Crude output levels in the U.S. are at levels last seen during the second-half of 2014. West Texas Intermediate has been trading within the current supply range between $48/50 for the last 12 trading sessions, and price action is currently treating the current trend support on narrowing price action. If OPEC disappoints tomorrow, and break through trend would cause traders to seek out support near $42, while a confirmed breakout of the supply zone could trigger buying to $55. The weekly chart picture for crude: OPEC's production has largely offset declines seen by U.S. shale producers, and members will continue to press on. Iran has said they look to achieve 2.2 Mbbl/day to compete with Saudi for market share; Iraq and Kuwait both look to increase their production meaningfully. Non-OPEC member Russia continues to keep oil production at post-Soviet highs. Side note: expect volatility in commodities currencies on headline risk. The Canadian dollar has pulled back after gaining 18 percent on crude's rally, but it remains vulnerable. For more information on MacroView's products, or general questions and comments, feel free to message us. Also, readers are encouraged to post their thoughts and charts!
NYMEX:CL1!
by MacroView_Research
WTI OIL ShortOil has been trending up but this seems like a time when the tide turns for the short term. The double top is obvious enough and 38.2 retracement at 36 is strong short term target for shorts. The next targets are 32 and 27. The OPEC and Non-OPEC meeting coming Sunday has been a major driver of this rally along with (possibly more) the weakness in commodities in general. Despite tapering down of expectations from Saudi and Russia, never mind Iran, oil has remained firm. The announcement coming out from the meeting is most likely to disappoint investors and also aid buy the rumor sell the news philosophy. This is not looking good for oil and a visit to the lows of 26 is not out of question.
FX:USOILShort
by Kaustubh
1
WTI will reach the 44.00-46.00 area by the end of 2016The fundamentals are still bearish at the moment, thanks to global oversupply. The weakness in WTI is caused by the moderately declining U.S. production, increase in the output of OPEC and the return of Iran to the world stage, as sanctions were lifted. The fears of further oil decline are further overlined by the decision of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to restart global produce up to 300 thousand barrels a day. On the other hand, the talk of oil freeze increased oil prices by more than 10% in March. Which led big hedge funds to start betting on higher oil prices. My expectations are that prices will continue falling and that by the end of 2016, prices will reach the 44.00- 46.00 area. This perspective will change depending on the fundamentals, but with the current data given this is my opinion. All Publications are published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be considered as investment advice or recommendation. Any investment decision based on the Articles of the author is made by the audience, and Autor is not responsible for any loss or damage arising from such decision, whether based or not based on the Publications of the Autor.
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by vassilnnikolov