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Opec

OPEC+: the beginning of the endThe growth of oil from $ 30 to $ 70 is the merit of OPEC+ (an agreement between a few key oil producers on the cumulative reduction in oil production by 1.8 million barrels per day). The main role in this agreement was played by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The result of OPEC + was the elimination of surpluses from the oil market (world inventories were reduced to the level of a five-year average). But recently there have been many alarming signals for oil buyers: the oil market participants are increasingly asking: will the OPEC+ deal be extended for 2019? In addition, Russia and Saudi Arabia are increasing production, which analysts interpret as an indirect refusal from OPEC + and in fact the end of this deal. According to the Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabia last month increased its oil production by more than 100,000 barrels per day and plans to increase it by at least 100,000 b/d this month. At the same time, according to the consulting company Kpler, which tracks the movement of oil tankers leaving Saudi Arabia, the country has increased oil exports by 300,000 b / d since mid-May. At the same time Russia calls for increasing the quotas for oil production. As can be seen, conversations about the soon collapse of OPEC + do not appear in an empty place. Given that US oil production has almost reached 11 million barrels per day, there are reasons to believe that the abandonment of OPEC + and the start of a new market race for a market share will lead to the formation of a medium-term downward trend in oil prices. Now oil is close to the long-term highs, so we consider current prices as extremely attractive for opening mid-term short positions with targets at the bottom of $ 40. If we talk about more local purposes, for example, this week, then sales in the $ 66 area with lower-end targets of $ 60 also look like an excellent trading opportunity (case of WTI oil). Especially considering that oil reserves in the US have recently increased and exert additional downward pressure on quotes of "black gold".
NYMEX:CL1!
by Trade24Fx
USOIL Bulls Eyeing For Next Resistance?Good day Traders. As of today, USOil rallied after reports citing that Saudi Arabia, Other OPEC and non-OPEC allies would extend on cutting oil supplies until the end of 2018 however were ready to make gradual adjustments in the event of any supply shortage. From my recent post, USOil is still in a clear uptrend and price was sitting off to key support with yesterday's Doji Indecision candle still waiting for long confirmation entry. Now, Bull's are eyeing next psychological price resistance $72.84 if today's EIA Crude Oil Stockpile report declines than expected. for more update, kindly visit my blog: livetotradefx.blogspot.com
TVC:USOIL
by livetotradefx
1
Chart pattern signal shows price of Crude Oil to go higher.Long term view. The chart patterns in the ellipses are occurring twice in the last 9 years, first in 2009, and now again from end of December 2017 to present day, and as we see that cycles repeat, expectations are the price of Crude Oil to go even higher against $80 - $100 per bbl. And it is not the technical analysis that appoints to this scenario happening, but also yesterday we got very clear vision for the future price directly from Saudi Arabia, officials stated Saudi Arabia needs price of oil to get to $100, and considering they have the power to adjust the production output in partnership with OPEC members and also non OPEC members in accordance with the demand and risks occurring around the oil markets, we can expect positive months for the oil markets to come. As the price makes correction to the downside buyers are emerging on levels below $65 and $63. As we expect that the price will rise, it has probability of going up gradually with resistances occurring close to these levels: $70, $72, $75, $80, $92, $96. Link for a video analysis for the Oil. www.youtube.com Link for the OPEC's price hawk vision. www.reuters.com Risk warning! --------------------------------------------------- Trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and may result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. You should first be aware of the risk and know what you do before you proceed with trading. Supplied information is not advice.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by TheTrade_Academ
Hedge funds don't buy into OPEC cutsUS Dollar Greenback gradually turns into an offensive although a buildup of longs on US currency looks quite cautious showed a pullback during the Asian session. Futures for the dollar index are planning a march to the level of 93.50 thanks to the efforts of Republicans to pass the fiscal bill and slightly biased in the positive side US data. Macro figures shows steady pickup in US manufacturing sector and some subsidence of the consumer sector, but the first is more legible in tracking economic effects, demonstrating the sustainability of the country's economic growth. Republicans of the Senate and the House of Representatives have to reconcile their versions of the tax reform and the market believes that it won’t be a problem. A large part of tax cuts intended for corporations is postponed until 2019, so investors are increasingly skeptical about stimulating effect of the reform. For example, Goldman Sachs considered that the continuation of global recovery next year will lead to capital flows into emerging markets with higher yields that will become a hard test for the dollar. To offset an appeal of foreign markets, the Fed will have to accelerate the rate of increase in borrowing costs, but inflation below the target level of two percent ties hands to the regulator. According to Trump's plan, the dollar should be cheaper to stimulate exports, making US products abroad cheaper. Therefore, in long-term rally of the dollar there is more and more doubt and investors are in no hurry to price into the dollar a more aggressive Fed next year. US trade deficit in October was the highest in last nine months due to rising oil prices, as well as a failure in competitiveness with major trading partners - China and Mexico. And this is despite the fact that US exports to these two countries have reached a peak of three years. Donald Trump has more and more arguments to enforce his protectionist initiatives, which is a time bomb in US political relations with trading partners. According to the report of US government, foreign trade accounted for 0.43 percentage points from the growth of 3.3 percent of GDP in the third quarter. According to the Trump administration, eliminating the skew in trade together with tax breaks can bring the rate of GDP growth to a stable trajectory of 3%. British pound The British currency has sharply lost a bullish aim, as news on progress of talks on the EU deal last week was again replaced by reports of sticky dissent. Moreover, on Wednesday the British TV channel reported that the police could prevent an attempt on Prime Minister Teresa May, which indicates that the course taken by the conservatives to find trade-off with the European Union can have a strong opposition. Bearish pressure led the GBPUSD pair to the level of 1.3370, and a breakdown at 1.3350 would likely signal a signal for further decline. The oil market Optimism after OPEC has come to naught and now investors are shifting focus to the dynamics of American production, which has already reached parity with Saudi Arabia and Russia. The emergence of a third major player in the market that does not contact OPEC creates depressing prospects for a global supply, so investors are trying to analyze the demand side for positioning. Brent and WTI lost more than half a percent on Wednesday and are likely to find support somewhat lower before investors consider long positions. The API report released on Tuesday showed mixed dynamics - crude oil stocks fell sharply, while reserves of gasoline and distillate rose, which indirectly speaks of saturation of the domestic market after a shortage due to natural disasters. Arthur Idiatulin
FX:USOILShort
by Tickmill
#Crudeoil Could End Lower Near-TermCrude Oil Brief Crude oil has been strong of late and has gained nearly 30 percent over the last four months. Much of this has to due with the exporting of crude and products which has dramatically lowered inventory stocks - overall stocks the lowest since March 2015. However, we are heading into a seasonally weak period for energy products, and inventories could begin to build. Moreover, US production has recovered from both hurricanes with producers producing over 9 m/bbl per day. Market sentiment on inflation has also aiding in bidding prices up, but we think there will be an inflection in 5- and 10-year breakevens. This could put pressure on crude as higher inflation hopes begin to wane. Technically, price is beginning to reject a key technical supply zone between $55.33 and $54.09. This has been a point has been contested three prior times going back to 2015, and each failure to break through has caused hefty pullbacks. TrendFlex Active score is moderately bullish in regards to trend, but price momentum and volatility range is contracting. Potential downside targets for crude are $51.94 and $49.01. For more free commentary and analysis, or questions on our up coming products for retail traders, follow @macro_view on twitter or message us on Trading View.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by MacroView_TrendFlex
Crude Oil Brent: UKOIL Looking to close out on test of 63.80UKOIL: Crude Oil Brent Update In the last comment stops were raised to just under 60 as we continue to run this long-pull swing trade to its conclusion, which may happen on Tuesday coming. The low yesterday was 60.01, so it came within 6 pips of stopping out before rallying once more. A damn close run thing, as Wellington said of the battle of Waterloo. Still looking to close out on the fourth strike of the upper parallel that's controlling this entire up-wave, around 63-80 to 64.20 range, if struck. If not will probably close out just before the Opec meeting on Tuesday coming. Long-time readers may remember we ran with the last Spring rally earlier this year right up to the morning of the Opec meeting on 24th May, selling right off the highs at 54 and then buying back at 44 and then again at 46 for the current rally. Selling on the news, well just before it, may well prove to be right thing to do again. Ideally, Brent will hit the upper parallel around 64 and that will be time to exit with 1800 pips of profit (with 30 pips of original risk) on a 4 month trade. (Try making those profits on Nasdaq, cowboy) Otherwise will likely sell before Opec (on Monday night). Of all the 100,000's of financial instruments out there from Bitcoin and other less reliable fiat currencies through to bonds and stocks no instrument trends like Big Oil. Nothing is so wave-like, trend-like, or, usually, so helpful to traders. If anyone knows a better complex to trade than Big Oil, from a technical perspective, please message. The stop has to stay under 60 for now.
FX:UKOILLong
by sumastardon