Oil forming a descending triangleOil is still in no man's land, seems to be forming a descending triangle, I see three possible scenarios. At this point oil is best day traded as there seems to be indecision on where this market is headed.
Oilusd
WTI will revoer soon ?after we've seen a wave three we anticipate a new lower low that will be caused by the wave five before the oil start recovering
if the price breaks 58.12 level the scenario will be invalidated
Oil - Zig Zag Correction to $32Between October 2017 and the beginning of 2019, we have seen a 5 wave move from the mid 70's to the low 40's.
Any move that starts with a 5 wave move will end with and at least an equal 5 to complete what is called a Zig Zag pattern.
The was a correction back to test the bottom of the previous wave. This didn't complete a 5 wave move, therefore this must be a 3 wave corrective move, which is the pattern that
sits in the middle of a Zig Zag. An equal move for the top of the 3 wave pattern put the target for oil at $32.
This is confirmed by the RSI failing to get over 60 and forming a double top formation. The entry begin the crossing of the RSI moving averages.
We also saw a large move in the Composite Index, were price did not follow (purple arrow) and a divergence with the RSI giving weight to the analysis.
Any time a indicator moves a great distance and price does not move, and your position is in the direction of the indicator, you are on the wrong side of the market.
This target of $32 is very conservative, as some Zig Zag patterns can run to 1.618 % of the first 5 wave move.
We won't see oil sit a this level for very long, as Zig Zag corrections are a quick and fast way for the market correct, before making a
larger move higher.
OIL FURTHER DOWNPLAY?I did not post all of my analysis on Monday been a very busy week but I thought I would drop my OilUS. i see further downside after a mild correction
Oil will face more dropOil will face more drop for finishing wave five
by breaking 60.37 level the scenario will be invalidated .
Long-Term Trend-line indicating a reversal downwards.Weekly Interval supporting a strong pull toward 52-54
Awaiting price to drop below 57 for further momentum toward 52.
Oil Technical Analysis: OIL slumps to 2-week low near $62.00 The market is likely going to continue to decline towards 62.00 level. The next supports in line are seen at 61.80 and 60.50. OIL 61.80 level H4 200 ma Moving Average, So Oil Take a Buy position 61.00 and 60.50 Area. OIL Daily 200 ma Moving Average 62.60 level breakout and stable this level short Sell 62.50/62.00 level take profit 61.90 and 61.50 Area.
Another side of OIL Stable 62.60 level buy this position, Target 63.50 and 64.00. Oil Resistances are seen at 64.00 and 65.00 level.
Daily SMA100 55.66
Daily SMA200 60.56
Previous Monthly High 60.78
Previous Monthly Low 54.79
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 65.45
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 65.76
Today last price 63.02
Today Daily Change -2.12
Oil rise setup - A road to the previous resistance 77.200?Oil is continuing its bull run with a pulse of high volumes. The consolidation area has formed between 64.800 and 63.800.
Since we are on a bullish trend, wait for an upward breakout of the 64.800 level.
Setup :
BUY after a breakout of 64.800.
Stop Loss @62.300
Take Profit @66.200
West Texas Oil - Bullish Trend Continues.....After a long accumulation range that end last quarter of 2018 , we saw a breakout with the price reaching the mid seventies.
This was our first indication that a trend is about to begin. The price then pulled back into the buy zone(75-87.5 fibs) and produced a buy pivot.
Good stopping volume came into halt the price as it move back to the center of the accumulation range.
In Wyckoff terms this is - "Jumping across the creek" and a "Back to the creek".
We should see price move higher, back above the mid seventies.
Oil shows bullish continuationwe should see the oil at higher prices very soon based on technical and fundamental analysis .
WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart Analysis Feb 14Technical Analysis and Outlook
Crude oil has completed the retracement path to near-term Mean Sup $52 . The initial resistance has embedded weak Mean Res $55.15 and solid Key Res $57.15 with the next Oil Rally at $58.40 . (For Market Commentary conclusion, please visit the TradingSig_dot_com).
Technical Analysis outlook - COMMODITY : $CRUDE OIL - $WTISun 10.Feb.2019
Crude oil
LAST= 52.60
Crude movement during the last few days showed a Bullish move, with a recent high price seen on Mon 04.Feb.2019 at 55.59.
During the next few days the price is expected to go down to 51.50
The general view is expected to continue to be in consolidation between 53.65 - 51.50.
On the other hand, a change in the direction of the general trend needs to be considered when the price trades below the level 49.50
Res_2 = 55.25
Res_1 = 53.75
Sup_1 = 52.00
Sup_2 = 51.10
OIL - Nine bucksIf we can close here it means we broke out significantly of the range .
As I was waiting for in my previous idea we needed to consolidate a little bit in this range - testing the upper and down trendlines before breaking higher :
RSI just tested back the 50 line and MACD looks like a "Kiss and goodbye". So it will not crossover just run higher after the touch.
If we say it was a consloidation and we break higher from this the measured target is at 63$.
On the 8$ way up to 63 there is 2 important resistance for us:
100 SMA - I don't it will hold for too long.
200 SMA - this will be an important resistance and the first daily cycle might top here.
On the other hand 64$ is also a multi month resistance , we will need some time before slicing through.
Target : 64$.
This idea was posted on the 01.02.2019. 12:50 EST
Oil will rise =)Let's take a quick look at oil
We see that oil moves out of the clutches of the downtrend.
the last high was exceeded and I now start from rising prices.
The 200 is also on our side and gives us additional stop from below.
since the market has been consul- ting for a very long time (since 9 january), the increase should now be commensurate.
close to the 50th fibonacci, the market is once again encountering strong resistance and we must see how the market participants behave there.
enjoy the way
logindaten
USOil, Weekly Fundamental Analysis | ForecastsLast week's rally indicates that two events will occur to support the current rally. Firstly, the United States and China must continue to make progress towards a trade agreement, and OPEC must continue to adhere to its strategy to limit production. This is due to the US goal of becoming net exporters while reducing dependence on foreign oil. Despite the series of potentially bullish events, traders remain cautiously optimistic about the upside potential of the market mainly due to concerns over the rise in US production and the difficulties in reaching a trade agreement between the US and China quickly.
OIL - The KingdomTechnicals:
Most of us in Europe and America were sitting/preparing for the Christmas dinner when oil dropped 4$ on the 24th of December. Most probably it was a natural drop... I let you guess who run the stops on a day when the next day was Holiday, and also the 26th of December was a Holiday in many European country...
After the the nasty Christams Eve attack price miraculously started to rally. It was taking out resistance after resistance...
First we broke the trendline, next day it closed above the 10 MA. Then we started to test the bottom of the previous range at 50$.
Today despite the bearish oil inventory numbers relesaed by the US Govt we broke back into the range.
To tell the truth it's strange that the Saudi Energy Minister started to talk about actions - taking by the OPEC and malliance included Russia - to bring back market from the big 4Q drop in 2018 immediately after the big products build in the USA...
I'm afraid they got rid of some contracts after the bounce today.
I see 2 possible scenarios in the following weeks.
1. We test the top of the range at 54 and drop back to 50$ building a H&S pattern.
2. We drop back to around 48$ (10 MA) without testing 54$. If the Saudis are playing the above game than this is starting this night.
Notice how do we turn down from 50 MA and RSI is leaving overbought .
Technical Analysis outlook - COMMODITY : CRUDE OIL - CL1 Sun 06.Jan.2019
Ticker: CL1
LAST= 47.96
Crude Future movement during the last few days showed a sideways movement, with a recent low price seen on Mon 24.Dec.2018 at 42.36.
The Short view is expected to continue to be in Consolidation between 51.00 - 46.25. And as long as, the price is trading within 49.55 - 47.00, it’s e recommended to wait for a more solid signal. But as of now, the next move is expected to go up to test the upper band of the consolidation at around 49.55 and then to 51.00.
On the other hand, a change in the direction of the general trend needs to be considered when the price trades either above the level 51.00 or below 46.25
Res_2 = 50.50
Res_1 = 48.25
Sup_1 = 45.90
Sup_2 = 43.55
OIL - Sharp Objects"Never catch a falling knife." - Pick it up from the ground when it's already lying.
This is what I'm going to do here.
After the two-week frustrating bottoming pattern it looks like oil is starting a rally today.
OPEC meeting finished today though there is no production cut the chart is showing bullish signs:
-The trendline is broken today:
-Price broke above the 10 EMA and I think the daily close will be above the 10 EMA too.
- MACD crossed over at extreme levels
- RSI left the oversold zone after tagging the most oversold territory in 10 years.
Notice the indicator extremes on the chart:
We might have printed a multi year low 6 days ago.
The multi year resistance is at 42$. It's still possible after a convincing bounce we will drop to that 42 $ level at the beginning of next year but now my bet is on a multi week rally up to 61-63$ where the 50 EMA is.
The 2017 range high is at 54-55$ that is the level we need to break for higher prices.
Who thinks crude oil 10$ or 20$Who thinks crude oil will drop to 10$ or 20$ ? will this technical analysis tell the future? who knows i love to short crude oil and cant wait for it.
