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intermediate trend is up but now trading in sidewayI've set up my TradingView chart for Crude Oil (WTI) in the 1-hour timeframe to understand the current market conditions and potential trading opportunities clearly. 1. Price Levels: - Right now, the price of crude oil is around $78.217. - I’ve marked key resistance levels at $80.278 and $79.988. These are the areas where I expect the price might face some selling pressure. - On the downside, support levels are at $77.557 and $77.550, which could act as a floor if the price drops. 2. Trendlines: - I’ve drawn a couple of diagonal trendlines that form a channel, showing the range within which the price has been bouncing around. - These trendlines intersect at several points, which might signal potential breakouts or breakdowns. 3. Volume: - The volume bars at the bottom are crucial. They show how much crude oil is being traded during each hour. - Notice the spikes in volume during significant price moves—these often indicate strong market activity and can hint at future price directions. 4. Candlestick Patterns: - I use candlestick patterns to track price action. Recently, the price has been consolidating around the $78.217 level, which suggests that the market is gathering momentum for a big move. 5. Supply and Demand Zones: - The shaded areas highlight important supply and demand zones. These zones are where there has been significant buying or selling interest in the past. - They help me identify potential reversal points and set my stop-loss and take-profit levels more accurately. 6. Support and Resistance Boxes: - I’ve also drawn boxes around the main support and resistance levels to make them stand out. - The upper box around $80.278 is a strong resistance zone, while the lower box near $77.550 is a key support area. This setup helps me keep track of critical price levels and market behavior, making it easier to plan my trades. I rely heavily on these visual cues and patterns to anticipate where the market might head next.
FX:USOIL
by THE-10
OPEC+ Lowers Its Sights: Farewell to $100 Oil?The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, appear to be waving goodbye to their long-held pursuit of $100-a-barrel oil. This strategic shift marks a significant change for the oil cartel, which has traditionally aimed to manipulate production levels to influence global oil prices. A New Reality Sets In For years, OPEC+ has strived to maintain a $100 price tag for a barrel of crude. However, the rise of the American shale industry, a technological marvel that unlocked vast domestic oil reserves in the United States, threw a wrench into their plans. This newfound production glut significantly impacted OPEC+'s ability to control oil prices through production cuts. In a recent meeting, OPEC+ acknowledged this new reality. Instead of clinging to the $100 dream, they announced a gradual increase in production quotas, likely leading to lower oil prices. This decision reflects a pragmatic approach to a market fundamentally changed by US shale production. Pumping Now, Before the Window Closes The decision to increase production can be seen as an opportunistic one. With global economies starting to recover from the pandemic and energy demand rising, OPEC+ sees a chance to capitalize on the current market conditions. By pumping more oil now, they can capture a larger share of the market before the shale boom potentially slows down. However, there are also risks associated with this strategy. Flooding the market with additional crude could lead to a price drop, potentially hurting OPEC+ members' long-term revenue streams. A Difficult Time for Saudi Arabia The shift in strategy comes at a particularly challenging time for Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC+. The kingdom faces ambitious spending plans to diversify its economy away from oil dependence. Lower oil prices could significantly hamper these efforts, putting a strain on Saudi Arabia's finances. Uncertainties Remain While the decision to increase production signifies a move away from the $100 target, the long-term implications remain unclear. The exact impact on oil prices will depend on various factors, including the pace of production increases, global economic growth, and the future trajectory of the US shale industry. A Reshaped Oil Market The OPEC+ decision marks a turning point in the global oil market. The era of OPEC+ wielding absolute control over oil prices seems to be over. The rise of US shale has created a new dynamic, forcing OPEC+ to adapt and adjust its strategies. Looking Ahead The oil market's future will likely be characterized by greater competition, with OPEC+ and US shale producers vying for market share. How this competition unfolds and how oil prices react will be a story to watch closely in the coming months and years. Conclusion OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production signifies a strategic shift away from their long-held pursuit of $100-a-barrel oil. While this move presents potential advantages, it also carries risks, particularly for Saudi Arabia. The future of the oil market remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the landscape has been reshaped, and the era of OPEC+ dominance is fading.
TVC:USOILShort
by bryandowningqln
OPEC+ Extends Production Cuts: A Calculated Volatile MoveThe recent OPEC+ meeting on June 2nd, 2024, resulted in a significant decision to extend production cuts. This move by the oil cartel, which includes major oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia, aims to navigate a complex economic climate and influence global oil prices. Here's a breakdown of the key takeaways from the meeting: • Extended Cuts of 3.66 Million Bpd Until December 2025: This is the most impactful decision. OPEC+ originally planned to ease these cuts by the end of 2024. However, extending them by a year indicates a commitment to controlling supply and potentially keeping oil prices elevated. • Prolonged Cuts of 2.2 Million Bpd Until September 2024: These deeper cuts, initially set to expire in June 2024, have been extended for an additional three months. This further tightens the supply in the short term. • Phased Out Production Cuts (2.2 Million Bpd) from October 2024 to September 2025: While extending cuts, OPEC+ has acknowledged the need for a gradual return to pre-cut production levels. This measured approach aims to prevent a price shock if all cuts were lifted abruptly. Understanding the reasoning behind these decisions requires looking at the current oil market landscape. Several factors are likely influencing OPEC+'s strategy: • Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to disrupt global energy supplies. This disruption, coupled with potential sanctions on Russian oil, has tightened supply and driven prices upwards. OPEC+ may be aiming to maintain a price floor by keeping production cuts in place. • Post-Pandemic Recovery: The global economy is still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. While demand for oil is increasing, it hasn't fully reached pre-pandemic levels. OPEC+ might be cautious about increasing supply too quickly, fearing it could outpace demand and lead to a price slump. • Shale Oil Production: The resurgence of shale oil production in the United States is a factor to consider. OPEC+ might be strategically keeping production cuts to maintain its market share and influence over global oil prices. The decision to extend cuts is likely to have a domino effect: • Impact on Oil Prices: Analysts predict that the production cut extensions will likely lead to a continued rise in oil prices. This could benefit oil-producing nations but put a strain on consumers and industries reliant on oil, potentially leading to higher transportation costs and production expenses. • Global Economic Growth: Higher oil prices can dampen economic growth as consumer spending power decreases due to increased energy costs. This is a concern for countries already grappling with inflation. • Shift Towards Renewables: OPEC+'s move to control supply could incentivize a faster transition towards renewable energy sources. Countries looking to lessen their dependence on volatile oil prices might accelerate investments in clean energy alternatives. The future trajectory of the oil market remains uncertain. OPEC+'s decision to extend production cuts is a calculated move to navigate a complex economic climate. While it might benefit oil-producing nations in the short term, it could also have consequences for consumers and the global economic recovery. How this strategy unfolds and how the market reacts will be interesting to watch in the coming months.
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
USOIL (Continuation falling)Oil prices increased early as we mentioned, recovering from a six-week low after a significant 4.3% fall the previous day, which was the lowest point since mid-March. This drop was attributed to an unexpected surge in U.S. stockpiles, indicating softer demand than anticipated. At the same time, market observers have pointed out that the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady, diminishing earlier expectations for a rate cut. PVM Oil Associates commented, "The reduction in borrowing costs may not occur as soon or as quickly as previously thought. It is similar to peak oil demand—consistently anticipated yet never realized." Technically: The price has stabilized within the bearish zone, having already breached the pivotal range between 80.73 and 82.24. This suggests a continuation of the bearish trend, with potential targets at 76.80 and 75.35. A further break below 75.35 could lead the price down to 69.78. Conversely, if the price stabilizes above 82.24, it may indicate a bullish trend, potentially reaching up to 86.86. Pivot line: 78.00 Support lines: 76.80, 75.35, 69.78 Resistance lines: 80.73, 82.24, 86.86
TVC:USOILShort
by SroshMayi
Crude Oil Tuesday ForecastI Have in Mind that we will be BEARISH bias mostly this week as we have Tapped into the Premium Daily FVG yesterday and rejected lower. My two targets shown in the forecast are the arrows. Daily PDL Weekly SSL Now it is important to realise that the market is moving in London and a straight sell into 0830 or 0930est wouldn't be the best move. Waiting for a retracement and then finding your model to get into the market is what we all strive for and to do couple times a week as intra day traders if the market gives us the opportunity. Lets see how this plays out !!!
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
Oil Counter-Trend Longs into Next ShortOil has broken the 15 minute shorts and now are on their way to the All The Way HWB shorts in on the larger 4 hour time frames. You can see how on Friday, the small time frame shorts survived multiple 4 hour candle dives below the 61.8% longs, only to close at or above the 61.8% long. Our 15 minute bias is long and expect it to trade back up to the 82.18-83.42 level, where we sold it in April. Where we can, we will try to be a buyer . . . should have bought those 15 min longs on Friday but it's a hard contract to hold over the weekend. . . .though if there is a direction to hold oil over the weekend, it would be long in the event of a geo-political issue that causes a gap up in oil prices.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CeresTrader
Crude oil pays attention to short-term adjustments Crude oil currently continues to maintain a good oscillatory upward trend along the short-term moving average on the weekly trend. It also maintains a good oscillatory upward trend on the daily trend. Although it has gone out of a slight rise and fall, the strong technical form is still the same. Nothing has changed. There is a certain degree of divergence in the 4-hour trend. The K-line has begun to gradually break through the short-term moving average. There may be a certain degree of adjustment in the short-term trend.
TVC:USOILShort
by Donald-king
1
Crude oil is at a high level, don’t be aggressive in chasing bulAt present, crude oil is around 86, which has reached the expected high point. Although technically bullish, this level is no longer suitable for chasing the rise. According to technical expectations, it should be temporarily suspended between 86-85. If crude oil does not stop in the short term, then the short-term market will exceed expectations, so it is okay to miss it and not participate. And if crude oil has a correction in the short term, it will be an opportunity for long orders to enter the market. In the short term, 85.35 will continue to be bullish. If there is a sudden adjustment and correction, the double bottom support above 84.2 will be bullish, and the resistance target is 86.5-87. Trading strategy: You can go long with light positions near 85.5-3, stop loss at 84.8, if there is support at 84.5 above the 4-hour mid-rail, you can participate with long orders here.
TVC:USOIL
by Donald-king
Crude oil hits new highs, if it falls back, you can go long At present, due to the intensification of international geopolitical conflicts, market supply concerns have once again heated up. At the same time, manufacturing data in the United States and China have rebounded, and demand-side expectations have increased. The dual benefits on both sides of supply and demand have stimulated the rebound of crude oil. Technically, the continuous positive closing continues to test the upper pressure level. . In terms of operation, we will focus on the pressure level near 85, and the gradually moving upward support near 82. We will support the bullish trend by stepping back, but do not consider aggressive pursuit of the increase. Crude oil is short around 84.4, stop loss is 85.2, target is below 82.6 Go long near 82.3, stop loss 81.5, target above 84 Ideas are for reference only. Profit and loss are at your own risk. Investment is risky. Please be cautious when entering the market.
TVC:USOIL
by Donald-king
Crude oil pressure is obvious, bulls are cautious U.S. crude oil inventories continue to rise, and short-term demand concerns have also increased. However, as expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts have increased, the loose atmosphere has given crude oil some support. At the same time, short-term supply-side pressure has increased as geopolitical conflicts intensify. Crude oil also stretched again after repeated repetitions. Technically, longs and shorts closed alternately. The top still focused on the pressure around 84, but did not chase the rise too much.
TVC:USOIL
by Donald-king
Oil hits YTD peak. What are the risks now? Oil prices reached their highest level in seven months, partly driven by worries that escalating tensions in the Middle East could constrain supply. Iran has warned of a potential "serious response" against Israel following a targeted strike in Damascus that resulted in the deaths of two Iranian generals. This incident has raised concerns about a widening conflict in the Middle East, following over five months of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. Furthermore, Ukraine has launched a counter-offensive by targeting Russia's oil infrastructure. Although the attacks have so far reportedly only caused minimal damage. Ukraine's objective is to disrupt Russia's main financial support for its invasion of Ukraine. Better-than-expected manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) reports from China and the US have also buoyed optimism in the oil market. Because of this, investors might anticipate increased demand in the manufacturing and industrial sectors of both countries. WTI has now found support just above $84.00. The 100 SMA is above the 200, potentially indicating that support is likely to hold. However, caution might be warranted as the market nears overbought conditions. If the $84.00 level fails to provide support, the subsequent target could be slightly below $81.00, coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the low in March to the recent peak. Alternatively, a less significant pullback might see buyers stepping in at the 23.6% or 38.2% Fibonacci levels.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
Expectations of Fed rate cut rise, gold retreats1: Investors are anxiously awaiting data to be released later this week to gain insight into potential inflation trends and provide a strong basis for judging the timing of interest rate cuts. At the same time, market expectations for an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve are growing, coupled with the strength of U.S. gold . Market focus will be on Friday's release of the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index. The data will reveal the latest developments in inflation and have an important impact on the Fed's monetary policy decisions. 2: Market concerns mainly come from the uncertainty of global oil supply. Ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have heightened geopolitical tensions and put additional pressure on oil markets. In addition, Commerzbank commodity strategist Barbara Lambrecht pointed out that as the U.S. sanctions exemption on Venezuela is about to expire, Indian refiners have stopped buying crude oil from Venezuela, which further exacerbates supply instability. Overall, while the oil futures market showed some consolidation on Tuesday, market participants remain concerned about the global supply outlook and geopolitical tensions. These uncertainties may have further impact on oil prices, and investors need to pay close attention to market dynamics and formulate corresponding investment strategies.
TVC:GOLD
by Donald-king