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NZD-USD

NZDUSD potential for dip | 19th OctPrice is trading near our sell entry price of 0.71457 which is also Fibonacci projection of 100% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Price can then potentially dip to the take profit level of 61.8% Fibonacci projection level and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Our temporary bearish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator which shows that it is near resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ At their October meeting, the RBNZ delivered on market expectations and raised the OCR by 25-basis points to an OCR of 0.50%. As the 25- basis point hike was already fully priced in, the fact that the bank did not provide any new additional information saw a textbook buy-therumour-sell-the-fact price reaction with the NZD pushing lower. As has recently been the case with most central bank commentary, there was additional focus on the RBNZ expecting that headline CPI inflation to increase above 4 percent in the near term, but the most important part of that part of the statement was the subsequent comment that the bank still sees CPI returning towards the 2 percent midpoint over the medium term. Furthermore, the most important take away from the RBNZ statement for us was that ‘the current COVID-19-related restrictions have not materially changed the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment since the August Statement’. Thus, despite recent covid concerns, inflation concerns and energy concerns, that part of the statement acknowledged that nothing has changed in terms of the bank’s OCR projections released at the August meeting. Unsurprisingly, the bank also stated that their future rate path is contingent on the mediumterm outlook for inflation and employment, which means keeping close tabs on incoming data and the virus situation will remain a key focus for us in the weeks and months ahead. With the bank now being the first to hike rates among the major central banks and sitting on the highest cash rate among the majors, and with an OCR projection that is still head and shoulders above the rest, the bias for the NZD remains firmly titled to the upside as the bank remains the most hawkish among the major central banks. As interest rates keeps rising, we think the currency’s carry attractiveness will be a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term, but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments So far, the virus situation in New Zealand has been a flash in the pan worry. The government has been able to trace the source of the recent outbreak and should be able to keep the situation under control. Any further escalation though will be important to watch. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +692 with a net non-commercial position of +8748. The NZD reflects net-long positioning for both large speculators as well as leveraged funds but are nowhere near stress levels right now. With the NZD now sitting on the highest cash rate among the major economies and with expectations of that to continue to rise we think carry attractiveness will become a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead and should mean a favourable upside bias for the NZD against the low yielders like JPY and CHF. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED More hawkish than expected sums up the Sep meeting. The FOMC gave the go ahead for a November tapering announcement as long as the economy develops as expected with their criteria for substantial further progress close to being met. The biggest hawkish tilt was the announcement about a faster pace of tapering, with Chair Powell saying there is broad agreement that tapering can be concluded by mid2022. Inflation projections were hawkish, with the Fed projecting Core PCE above their 2% until 2024. On labour, Chair Powell said he thought the substantial further progress threshold for employment was ‘all but met’ and explained that it won’t take a very strong September jobs print for them to start tapering as just a ‘decent’ print will do. The 2022 Dots stayed very close to the June median, but the rate path was much steeper than markets were anticipating with seven hikes expected over the forecast horizon (from just two previously). It is important here to note though that even though the path was steeper, if one compares that to a projected Core PCE >2% for 2022 to 2024, the rate path does not exactly scream fear when it comes to inflation . All in all, it was a hawkish meeting. Interestingly, it took markets about three days to realize this as the expected price action only really took hold of markets a few days later. A faster tapering was a key factor we were watching for an incrementally bullish tilt in the outlook, so market’s initial reactions were surprising. However, with the recent breakout in both US yields and the USD, this has given us more confidence in moving our fundamental outlook for the Dollar from Neutral to Weak Bullish . 2. Real Yields With a Q4 taper start and mid-2022 taper conclusion on the card, we think further downside in real yields will be a struggle and the probability are skewed higher given the outlook for growth, inflation and policy, and higher real yields should be supportive for the USD in the med-term . 3. The global risk outlook One supporting factor for the USD from June was the onset of downside surprises in global growth. However, recent Covid-19 case data from ourworldindata. org has shown a sharp deceleration in new cases globally. Using past occurrences as a template, the reduction in cases is likely to lead to less restrictive measures, which is likely to lead to a strong bounce in economic activity. Thus, even though we have shifted our bias to weak bullish in the med-term , the fall in cases and increased likelihood of a bounce in economic activity could mean downside for the USD from a short to intermediate time horizon (remember a re-acceleration in growth and potentially inflation = reflation) 4. Economic Data Economic data will be very light in the incoming week with the main highlight being IHS Markit Flash PMI data. However, also keep in mind that the Fed has largely taken the sting out of economic data going into the November FOMC meeting as they have already acknowledged a November taper announcement as well as a possible mid-2022 conclusion. Thus, even though economic data will still be important, it is unlikely that incoming data will sway the Fed from their tapering plans. 5. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +3036 with a net non-commercial position of +35062. Positioning isn’t anywhere near stress levels for the USD, but the speed of the build-up in large specular positioning measures over 2-standard deviation on a 1-year, 6-month and 3- month look back period. Thus, even though the med-term bias remains unchanged, it does mean the USD could be sensitive to mean reversion risks while still trading close to YTD highs. Thus, reflationary data and overall risk sentiment will be a focus for the USD.
by thunderpips
2
NZDUSD bullish breakout, potential for further rise!Price has shown a bullish breakout from the descending trendline resistance-turned-support, and is also holding above the moving average as well. We could see a further rise from 1st support at 0.69519 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap support, towards 1st resistance at 0.70270 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Our bullish bias is further supported by how Price is holding above the Ichimoku cloud and RSI is being held up by a corresponding ascending trendline support. Otherwise Price may bearish towards 2nd support at 0.69213 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Long
by TradeGATEHub
2
#NZDUSD approaching pivot, potentail for a reversal! Price is approaching pivot level of 0.69818 where we have 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal overlap resistance lining up. A reversal from this level might see price take support at 0.6807, which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal swing low support. Finally, price is unlikely to surpass our strong resistance at 0.70855, which coincides with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, 61.8% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap resistance . This is further supported by how price is holding below the EMA Pivot: 0.69818 Why we like it: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal overlap resistance 1st Support: 0.68070 Why we like it: 78.6% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal swing low support 1st Resistance: 0.70855 Why we like it: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, 61.8% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap resistance Trading FX & CFDs carries high risk.
Short
by VantageMarkets
NZDUSD: SELLBased off of our Fibonacci drawn on the H1 time frame, we can clearly see an opportunity for Bears to enter right now by the 38.2 level of the Fib. If you decide to take this trade plan, feel free to set your take profit levels between the 138.2 to 161.8 level. If you pull yourself to a higher time frame (daily or weekly), you can see that at that 161.8 level, there were multiple times that price touched that level. To ensure you secure your profits, make sure to exit at that level once it reaches.
Short
by cupofconfidence
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ At their October meeting, the RBNZ delivered on market expectations and raised the OCR by 25-basis points to an OCR of 0.50%. As the 25- basis point hike was already fully priced in, the fact that the bank did not provide any new additional information saw a textbook buy-therumour-sell-the-fact price reaction with the NZD pushing lower. As has recently been the case with most central bank commentary, there was additional focus on the RBNZ expecting that headline CPI inflation to increase above 4 percent in the near term, but the most important part of that part of the statement was the subsequent comment that the bank still sees CPI returning towards the 2 percent midpoint over the medium term. Furthermore, the most important take away from the RBNZ statement for us was that ‘the current COVID-19-related restrictions have not materially changed the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment since the August Statement’. Thus, despite recent covid concerns, inflation concerns and energy concerns, that part of the statement acknowledged that nothing has changed in terms of the bank’s OCR projections released at the August meeting. Unsurprisingly, the bank also stated that their future rate path is contingent on the mediumterm outlook for inflation and employment, which means keeping close tabs on incoming data and the virus situation will remain a key focus for us in the weeks and months ahead. With the bank now being the first to hike rates among the major central banks and sitting on the highest cash rate among the majors, and with an OCR projection that is still head and shoulders above the rest, the bias for the NZD remains firmly titled to the upside as the bank remains the most hawkish among the major central banks. As interest rates keeps rising, we think the currency’s carry attractiveness will be a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term, but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. The country’s economic and health developments So far, the virus situation in New Zealand has been a flash in the pan worry. The government has been able to trace the source of the recent outbreak and should be able to keep the situation under control. Any further escalation though will be important to watch. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -2190 with a net non-commercial position of +8052. The flush lower in the NZD after the RBNZ was in line with our expectations as the bar for a hawkish surprise was quite high going into the meeting. However, after the buy-the-rumour- sell-the-fact reaction and subsequent flush lower, the NZD is back at some very attractive med-term levels, especially versus the low-yielding currencies like the JPY and the CHF, thus we like the odds of looking for med-term allocations to the upside in the NZDJPY and NZDCHF. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED More hawkish than expected sums up the Sep meeting. The FOMC gave the go ahead for a November tapering announcement as long as the economy develops as expected with their criteria for substantial further progress close to being met. The biggest hawkish tilt was the announcement about a faster pace of tapering, with Chair Powell saying there is broad agreement that tapering can be concluded by mid2022. Inflation projections were hawkish, with the Fed projecting Core PCE above their 2% until 2024. On labour, Chair Powell said he thought the substantial further progress threshold for employment was ‘all but met’ and explained that it won’t take a very strong September jobs print for them to start tapering as just a ‘decent’ print will do. The 2022 Dots stayed very close to the June median, but the rate path was much steeper than markets were anticipating with seven hikes expected over the forecast horizon (from just two previously). It is important here to note though that even though the path was steeper, if one compares that to a projected Core PCE >2% for 2022 to 2024, the rate path does not exactly scream fear when it comes to inflation . All in all, it was a hawkish meeting. Interestingly, it took markets about three days to realize this as the expected price action only really took hold of markets a few days later. A faster tapering was a key factor we were watching for an incrementally bullish tilt in the outlook, so market’s initial reactions were surprising. However, with the recent breakout in both US yields and the USD, this has given us more confidence in moving our fundamental outlook for the Dollar from Neutral to Weak Bullish . 2. Real Yields With a Q4 taper start and mid-2022 taper conclusion on the card, we think further downside in real yields will be a struggle and the probability are skewed higher given the outlook for growth, inflation and policy, and higher real yields should be supportive for the USD in the med-term . 3. The global risk outlook One supporting factor for the USD from June was the onset of downside surprises in global growth. However, recent Covid-19 case data from ourworldindata. org has shown a sharp deceleration in new cases globally. Using past occurrences as a template, the reduction in cases is likely to lead to less restrictive measures, which is likely to lead to a strong bounce in economic activity. Thus, even though we have shifted our bias to weak bullish in the med-term , the fall in cases and increased likelihood of a bounce in economic activity could mean downside for the USD from a short to intermediate time horizon (remember a re-acceleration in growth and potentially inflation = reflation) 4. Economic Data This week we’ll finally have the September NFP print, but all the previous excitement about this event has been mitigated with the Fed’s previous meeting. The Fed’s comments that they don’t need to see a huge or stellar jobs print but that a decent print will do, has largely taken the sting out of the Sep NFP print. The current concern about inflation means that the Average Hourly Earnings release could be of more interest in market participants to see whether the current labour supply shortage sparks further acceleration in wages. 5. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +5565 with a net non-commercial position of +32026. Positioning isn’t anywhere near stress levels for the USD, but with both large speculators and leveraged funds sitting in net-long territory, it does mean that the Dollar could be more sensitive from mean reversion while still elevated after the recent push higher into new YTD highs. Thus, possible reflationary data will be a key focus point for the USD in the weeks ahead.
by thunderpips
NZDUSD is on a bearish momentum! | 8 OctPrice has recently experienced a bounce from our descending trendline. We spot a potential entry from our pivot at 0.69233 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement and graphical overlap to our target take profit at 0.68774 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and graphical swing low. Technical indicators are showing bearish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
NZDUSD showing bearish momentum | 6th OctPrice is currently changing in a descending trendline and is near its sell entry position at 0.68966. If price were to break the first support of 0.68966 it can potentially goes to its take profit area of 0.68183. Our bearish bias is supported by 20EMA as price is currently trading under it. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
2
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ New Zealand’s Zero Covid strategy caused quite the rigmarole for the NZD before the RBNZ’s last meeting as market participants were forced to unwind aggressive expectations for rate hikes going into the meeting. The unwind was so aggressive that OIS prices dropped from a 100% chance of a hike at that meeting to just above 50% going into it. The RBNZ surprised by leaving rates unchanged, but offered an optimistic tone compared to their prior meetings. They projected 7 hikes between Q4 2021 and H1 2023 (bringing the OCR to 2.0%). This was much more aggressive than what markets were expecting. Governor Orr later explained that they cannot wait for uncertainty to move on policy as they have a lot of work to do to get back to the neutral rate of 2.0%. When asked about Oct, the Governor said the meeting is live. Thus, with the upgraded rate path the med-term bullish outlook remains intact for the NZD. A week after their meeting we also had very hawkish comments from RBNZ’s Hawkesby who stated that the bank’s decision not to hike rates was mostly about optics and not due to risks, and also explained that the bank contemplated hiking rates by 50 basis points. This just confirmed the bank’s hawkish pivot and places them miles ahead any other major central banks. The announcement two weeks ago about the RBNZ moving forward with tightening LVR restrictions to curb speculation in the housing market was interesting from a timing point of view. Usually, these type of macroprudential policies takes pressure of the central bank to reign in speculation with higher rates. The announcement has already seen some repricing for October with markets now pricing in a 25-basis point hike instead of a 50-basis point hike for this week’s upcoming meeting on Wednesday. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the AUD in the med-term, but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. The country’s economic and health developments So far, the virus situation in New Zealand has been a flash in the pan worry. The government has been able to trace the source of the recent outbreak and should be able to keep the situation under control. Any further escalation though will be important to watch. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +2144 with a net non-commercial position of +10246. This week saw some decent unwind in net-long positions for leveraged funds (fast money) which can also explain some of the oversized downside in the NZD during the past week. With the overall optimistic rate path from the RBNZ, the bias for the currency remains unchanged, and with small net-long positioning the current spot levels for the NZD still looks attractive for med-term buyers but waiting for the RBNZ is a prudent move. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED More hawkish than expected sums up the Sep meeting. The FOMC gave the go ahead for a November tapering announcement as long as the economy develops as expected with their criteria for substantial further progress close to being met. The biggest hawkish tilt was the announcement about a faster pace of tapering, with Chair Powell saying there is broad agreement that tapering can be concluded by mid2022. Inflation projections were hawkish, with the Fed projecting Core PCE above their 2% until 2024. On labour, Chair Powell said he thought the substantial further progress threshold for employment was ‘all but met’ and explained that it won’t take a very strong September jobs print for them to start tapering as just a ‘decent’ print will do. The 2022 Dots stayed very close to the June median, but the rate path was much steeper than markets were anticipating with seven hikes expected over the forecast horizon (from just two previously). It is important here to note though that even though the path was steeper, if one compares that to a projected Core PCE >2% for 2022 to 2024, the rate path does not exactly scream fear when it comes to inflation . All in all, it was a hawkish meeting. Interestingly, it took markets about three days to realize this as the expected price action only really took hold of markets a few days later. A faster tapering was a key factor we were watching for an incrementally bullish tilt in the outlook, so market’s initial reactions were surprising. However, with the recent breakout in both US yields and the USD, this has given us more confidence in moving our fundamental outlook for the Dollar from Neutral to Weak Bullish . 2. Real Yields With a Q4 taper start and mid-2022 taper conclusion on the card, we think further downside in real yields will be a struggle and the probability are skewed higher given the outlook for growth, inflation and policy, and higher real yields should be supportive for the USD in the med-term . 3. The global risk outlook One supporting factor for the USD from June was the onset of downside surprises in global growth. However, recent Covid-19 case data from ourworldindata. org has shown a sharp deceleration in new cases globally. Using past occurrences as a template, the reduction in cases is likely to lead to less restrictive measures, which is likely to lead to a strong bounce in economic activity. Thus, even though we have shifted our bias to weak bullish in the med-term , the fall in cases and increased likelihood of a bounce in economic activity could mean downside for the USD from a short to intermediate time horizon (remember a re-acceleration in growth and potentially inflation = reflation) 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +1361 with a net non-commercial position of +26461. Positioning isn’t anywhere near stress levels for the USD, but with both large speculators and leveraged funds sitting in net-long territory, it does mean that the Dollar could be more sensitive from mean reversion while still elevated after the recent push higher into new YTD highs. 5. Economic Data This week we’ll finally have the September NFP print, but all the previous excitement about this event has been mitigated with the Fed’s previous meeting. The Fed’s comments that they don’t need to see a huge or stellar jobs print but that a decent print will do, has largely taken the sting out of the Sep NFP print. The current concerns about inflation means that the Average Hourly Earnings release could be of more interest for market participants to see whether the current labour supply shortage sparks further acceleration in wages.
by thunderpips
4
NZD/USD:PRICE ACTION + FIBO ANALYSIS | PRICE WILL FALL....The New Zealand Central Bank is widely expected to raise its key interest rate this week on October 6. Analysts at ING write that such an outcome will support the NZD, although the currency continues to be vulnerable to the markets' general risk sentiment. Welcome back Traders, Investors, and Community! Check the Links on BIO and If you LIKE this analysis, Please support our Idea by hitting the LIKE 👍 button Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. Have a Good Day Trading !
Short
by FOREXN1
4
#NZDUSD approaching a pivot, potential for a bearish breakout! Price is approaching pivot point at 0.69281 which is in line with 23.6% Fibonacci extension level, 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal overlap support. A break and close below this level could see a price swing towards 1st support at 0.68535.This level is in line with 50.0% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal pullback support. Finally, price is unlikely to surpass our strong resistance at 0.69956, which coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, 61.8% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap resistance . This is further supported by how price is now holding below the Ichimoku cloud resistance. Pivot: 0.69281 Why we like it: 23.6% Fibonacci extension level, 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal overlap support 1st Support: 0.68535 Why we like it: 50.0% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal pullback support 1st Resistance: 0.69956 Why we like it: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, 61.8% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap resistance Trading FX & CFDs carries high risk.
Short
by VantageMarkets
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ New Zealand’s Zero Covid strategy caused quite the rigmarole for the NZD before the RBNZ’s last meeting as market participants were forced to unwind aggressive expectations for rate hikes going into the meeting. The unwind was so aggressive that OIS prices dropped from a 100% chance of a hike at that meeting to just above 50% going into it. The RBNZ surprised by leaving rates unchanged, but offered an optimistic ton compared to their prior meetings. They projected 7 hikes between Q4 2021 and H1 2023 (bringing the OCR to 2.0%). This was much more aggressive than what markets were expecting. Governor Orr later explained that they cannot wait for uncertainty to move on policy as they have a lot of work to do to get back to the neutral rate of 2.0%. When asked about Oct, the Governor said the meeting is live. Thus, with the upgraded rate path the med-term bullish outlook remains intact for the NZD. A week after their meeting we also had very hawkish comments from RBNZ’s Hawkesby who stated that the bank’s decision not to hike rates was mostly about optics and not due to risks, and also explained that the bank contemplated hiking rates by 50 basis points. This just confirmed the bank’s hawkish pivot and places them miles ahead any other major central banks. The announcement two weeks ago about the RBNZ moving forward with tightening LVR restrictions to curb speculation in the housing market was interesting from a timing point of view. Usually, these type of macroprudential policies takes pressure of the central bank to reign in speculation with higher rates. The announcement has already seen some repricing for October with markets now pricing in a 25-basis point hike instead of a 50-basis point hike for this week’s upcoming meeting on Wednesday. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the AUD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the AUD in the med-term, but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. The country’s economic and health developments So far, the virus situation in New Zealand has been a flash in the pan worry. The government has been able to trace the source of the recent outbreak and should be able to keep the situation under control. Any further escalation though will be important to watch. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +2144 with a net non-commercial position of +10246. This week saw some decent unwind in net-long positions for leveraged funds (fast money) which can also explain some of the oversized downside in the NZD during the past week. With the overall optimistic rate path from the RBNZ, the bias for the currency remains unchanged, and with small net-long positioning the current spot levels for the NZD still looks attractive for med-term buyers but waiting for the RBNZ is a prudent move. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED More hawkish than expected sums up the Sep meeting. The FOMC gave the go ahead for a November tapering announcement as long as the economy develops as expected with their criteria for substantial further progress close to being met. The biggest hawkish tilt was the announcement about a faster pace of tapering, with Chair Powell saying there is broad agreement that tapering can be concluded by mid2022. Inflation projections were hawkish, with the Fed projecting Core PCE above their 2% until 2024. On labour, Chair Powell said he thought the substantial further progress threshold for employment was ‘all but met’ and explained that it won’t take a very strong September jobs print for them to start tapering as just a ‘decent’ print will do. The 2022 Dots stayed very close to the June median, but the rate path was much steeper than markets were anticipating with seven hikes expected over the forecast horizon (from just two previously). It is important here to note though that even though the path was steeper, if one compares that to a projected Core PCE >2% for 2022 to 2024, the rate path does not exactly scream fear when it comes to inflation. All in all, it was a hawkish meeting. Interestingly, it took markets about three days to realize this as the expected price action only really took hold of markets a few days later. A faster tapering was a key factor we were watching for an incrementally bullish tilt in the outlook, so market’s initial reactions were surprising. However, with the recent breakout in both US yields and the USD, this has given us more confidence in moving our fundamental outlook for the Dollar from Neutral to Weak Bullish. 2. Real Yields With a Q4 taper start and mid-2022 taper conclusion on the card, we think further downside in real yields will be a struggle and the probability are skewed higher given the outlook for growth, inflation and policy, and higher real yields should be supportive for the USD in the med-term. 3. The global risk outlook One supporting factor for the USD from June was the onset of downside surprises in global growth. However, recent Covid-19 case data from ourworldindata.org has shown a sharp deceleration in new cases globally. Using past occurrences as a template, the reduction in cases is likely to lead to less restrictive measures, which is likely to lead to a strong bounce in economic activity. Thus, even though we have shifted our bias to weak bullish in the med-term, the fall in cases and increased likelihood of a bounce in economic activity could mean downside for the USD from a short to intermediate time horizon (remember a re-acceleration in growth and potentially inflation = reflation) 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +1361 with a net non-commercial position of +26461. Positioning isn’t anywhere near stress levels for the USD, but with both large speculators and leveraged funds sitting in net-long territory, it does mean that the Dollar could be more sensitive from mean reversion while still elevated after the recent push higher into new YTD highs. 5. Economic Data This week we’ll finally have the September NFP print, but all the previous excitement about this event has been mitigated with the Fed’s previous meeting. The Fed’s comments that they don’t need to see a huge or stellar jobs print but that a decent print will do, has largely taken the sting out of the Sep NFP print. The current concerns about inflation means that the Average Hourly Earnings release could be of more interest for market participants to see whether the current labour supply shortage sparks further acceleration in wages.
by thunderpips
NZDJPY is experiencing bullish pressure | 29 SeptNZDUSD is approaching our target entry at 77.397 in confluence with 38.2%, 50% Fibonacci retracement and bullish trendline. Price has the potential to bounce to our take profit at 78.150 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement , graphical overlay and graphical swing high. Our stop loss is placed at 77.216 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement . Ichimoku and MA are forecasting the bounce. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
3
NZDUSD is approaching a pivot, potential for bounce! | 29 SeptNZDUSD is approaching our target entry 0.69474 in confluence with 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 127.2% Fibonacci extension . Price has the potential to bounce to our take profit at 0.70182 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , and parallel channel . Our stop loss is placed at 0.69147 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , 100% Fibonacci extension and 161.8% Fibonacci projection . Stochastics is at an undersold level. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
by FXCM
2