Two legged correction?From what I am seeing, it looks like we may attempt a two-legged correction on a larger time frame from a seven month long uptrend. If we continue lower, a measured move takes us right so the breakout point of 14400.
Nq_f
Weekly SPX Outlook week ending Sep 22SPX 4450 is still the key line in the sand for bulls to defend and bears to overtake. Even if Bears win, there's strong support at 4425-4400. Belo 4400 is where the fun begins down to 4350-4300.
If Bulls hold 4450 we could attempt a gap fill above back to 4500
NQ1!, Rollover, OPEX and etc.Am I bullish or bearish while looking at this daily chart? The answer is neither. A lot had happened this past week: contract rollover, CPI, PPI, quadruple witching. It seems like trading was a mess and chaotic. Many gurus preached on FinTwit to stay away from the market and preserve the capital. I do see a value in those warnings. Especially, for those who are not comfortable with reading the price action or does not have a grasp on what price levels are important. Market action creates a lot of noise and may derail any professional. My approach is to go to a higher timeframe to filter out the noise and most important to focus on the important price levels.
A Fib retracement on the chart gives those projected levels to focus on. Here is my price action dissection: multiple attempts to get over the 61.8% have failed, the price is pushed back hard to retest the levels below. I added a new rectangle as the area of interest. I do not attempt to predict whether those level hold or not. I let the market to show that. In my view, the price is stuck in a large consolidation area since June, a few fake outs in August pushed the price back in the middle of that consolidation. Usually, the middle of a consolidation area is where the price oscillates while both sides make attempts to gain control and this is exactly what we see since the last week of August.
09/16/2023
NQ1!, The Contract Rollover GameTo start off - no changes since the last post. A short week did not do much. However, this week is a start of the rollover to December contract. The adjustment is big and that put the price above the critical level 400. It feels like cheating to fool the machines to push higher. Let's see if the bluff is called :) The levels to watch remain the same - I'm referring to the Fib retracement.
9/9/2023
Weekly SPX outlook ending Sep 15SPX 4450 is the key line in the sand now. A head and shoulders is forming on the 2hr and based on option flow could complete early to mid week.
Bear: Below 4450 with a target of 4400 and below that 4350-4300.
Bull: Above 4450 with a target of 4500 and then 4530-4560.
We also have CPI and PPI this week. To add it is also OpEx - wonderful.
Could potentially take SPX 4465c and 4465p 09/18 on Sunday when SPX opens @ roughly 29.00 each. PT would be 90-100.00 on either leg.
NQ1!, Market Keeps on TeasingIn the most recent action the price has managed to get back into the upside channel. Whether there is a real demand or just lack of supply remains to be seen. As of now the price has retested the 61.8% retracement of the bearish swing and failed to accept that level on first test. My focus is on the next level below the 50%: if it holds we may see the upside continuation to the channel mid, if not than the 23.6% is the next downside target. In the environment with high level of uncertainty focusing on small areas is a mechanism to protect yourself from a headache.
09/02/2023
NQ1!, Failed Attempt to Regain ControlA volatile week but no structural changes, or changes in the directionality. It seems the path to downside has been painted. But when it comes to the market nothing is guaranteed. One needs to think from the change or no change of current context. As of now, the H&S remain broken, the upside channel is broken. Nevertheless, my scenario 1 is
a horizontal development (consolidation) to build enough energy to either regain the channel bottom or resume the downside. A premature move up, thanks to one company earnings, had failed but don't assume it is over for the buyers. My scenario 2 is a push lower, could be premature as well.
Assumptions/predictions are the source of frustration and losses.
Let the market show which scenario is in play and tag along with no questions asked.
08/26/2023
NQ1!, Technical BreachAs of now, a technical breach of the upside channel and the H&S neckline. It seems the price is trending lower to tag the quarterly pivot. I anticipate a bounce to back test the broken structure. Usually, structural changes are back tested multiple time before the loosing side gives up and let the continuation to proceed. The last point of demand, June consolidation, is a potential liquidity provider to feed attempts to get back into the channel. If that happens it may lead to a violent short squeeze.
8/19/2023
NQ1! Filling the Right ShoulderBacktest of the broken balance, a confirmed Head and off to the Neckline - is the current theme for the market action. The Right shoulder of the projected H&S is being formed. Market is searching for the shoulder bottom. It may reach the lower edge of the channel, confluence with a yearly inflection level. I don't expect a breach of the Neckline soon. My anticipation is that the price would stay inside the Right shoulder for awhile similar to the Left shoulder and offer 2-sided setups for the traders.
08/12/2023
NQ1! Back test of the Broken BalanceThe week has started from a bullish retracement. From a technical perspective we see a back test of the channel mid and eventually a back test of the broken multi-day balance. The sentiment remains bearish. A retest of the previous session high would be a warning sign for the shorts. My expectation is to see a holding pattern ahead of the inflation data. Being in the upside channel is bullish and this is the reason the market is being resilient and does not drop like a rock after breaking the balance.
8/7/2023, pre-market
NQ Levels CGG Newsletter (08/06-11/2023)NQ is forming an ascending broadening wedge on the daily. Typically this is a bearish pattern, but I believe a bounce is due as NQ is close to a key daily level at 15333 and a golden pocket 61.8% retrace of at 15315. If we get the bounce, we can target the weekly level at 15709 inside the daily fair value gap above where the short GP lies (61.8% retrace is at 15695) If this bounce does not hold, we can expect the daily FVG to fill below at 15255-152128.
Upside
15444 → 15552 → 15882 → 15695 → 15728
Downside
15333→ 15315 → 15254 → 15218 → 15172
NQ1!, A Fake or the Right Shoulder PathA sign of cracking the structure. A multi day consolidation area breach. Is this the beginning of a potential H&S right shoulder formation or a fake out that may lead to a return to the mid and top of the consolidation area? 2 mega tech companies are reporting after hours, the NFP is tomorrow. These events may help to answer that question. Wait and see for investors. Traders will have setups during the day session for sure.
08/03/2023
NQ1!, Stuck in the RangeMulti day consolidation is begging for a resolution. Old buyers hold and not willing to sell hoping the price will get to all time high. New buyers are hoping for a decent pullback. This situation leads to a limbo. But the market can't operate in that mode. The resolution is coming. AAPL and AMZN are reporting this week. This is could be a moving event. The NFP is another market event. I'm hoping to see decent moves and pickup of the volatility.
NQ1!, Retest of the BreakoutA pullback to retest the breakout of the multi-day consolidation is coming. This is an important area to watch. A potential outcome is to resume the upside move or retest the bottom of the consolidation and start to form the right shoulder of H&S. I anticipate to see a reaction first. A strong move down side would suggest the H&S scenario. The sentiment remains bullish, a pullback is expected to be bought.
There is no change in the narrative to say otherwise. One can't trade leaving in the fear of a black swan event.
07/23/2023
NQ1! Shallow Pullback So farA downside move yesterday looks like the beginning of something big. It might be. But that would be a pure speculation. Larger TF (weekly, monthly) charts show a strong bullish sentiment. There is a rebalancing of the NASDAQ going on to reduce the impact of the magnificent seven mega tech companies. The new distribution will be announced today after the bell. It may be the reason for that "correction". Nevertheless, I expect to see more consolidation at the top before any sign of a potential distribution leading to a structural damage of the upside channel. Until then, it makes sense to look for longs.
07/21/2023
NQ1!, Market Needs a Reason to SellLast session has retested monthly R1 confluence with the upper edge of the channel. Initial reaction, profit taking. This is all normal and supported by technical analysis. In my view, this is an objective way to look at the market action and remain on the right side of the chart. As the title suggests, the market needs a reason to sell which is a reverse of the current narrative.
As of now, I don't see it. Until then, one could buy pullbacks in alignment with smaller timeframe technicals.
Rate hikes, shrinking economy, inflation and etc. mess with the trader's mind. They assume that market should be sold and fight the trend. But the most hated upside move remains intact. Reactions(pullbacks) are not reversals. Looking at the chart the most recent breakout, from a highlighted consolidation has negated my previous idea that this is a potential head of an H&S. A pullback to retest the breakout is a buy opportunity. I anticipate a reaction on first test. Mid of the consolidation is a second place to consider buying, confluence with the upside channel mid.
Full disclosure: I'm not neither bull or bear. I only follow a typical price action scenarios.
Off the topic.
Regarding the shorting the market.
Shorting itself is entertained by hedge funds and retail traders. They want to outsmart the market and gain big returns. The investors don't short they sell the assets to relocate money into other assets. Passive investing, corporate buy-backs, 401k, pension funds only buy. They are a permanent source of keeping the bull market afloat.
For those who has an irresistible pull to short learn how to time it well and execute with a precision.
07/15/2023
NQ1! Is a Head being formed? Technical analysis is hardly objective, every trader sees his/her brain imagination result. We can't see the future, period!
I often entertain different ideas for a mental gymnastic only. Full disclosure, as a day trader, I don't really care where the market would go. I tag along with a short term sentiment.
Anyway, while looking at this daily chart and relentless upside move for the first half of 2023, I can't help but entertain an idea of a head formation of a potential H&S. Every trend ends up with a consolidation which is a head of a potential H&S or inverse H&S. A breach of the outlined area to upside would invalidate that idea. A breach of R1 would confirm it.
07/03/23
Psychology of Price Action Analysis | NASDAQ and ES Futures- NASDAQ and ES futures confirmed a hourly downtrend i want to see it confirm on market cash open on QQQ and SPY to be more convincing
- the size of this pull back will determine if we can short a daily lower high if its a shallow pull back then bulls are still in completely control
Elliott Wave Forecasts Nasdaq (NQ) to Continue HigherShort term Elliott Wave View in Nasdaq (NQ) suggests the rally from 4.26.2023 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse with extension (nest). Up from 4.26.2023 low, wave ((i)) ended at 13370.25 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 13001.75. Wave ((iii)) is currently in progress with internal subdivision as another 5 waves in lesser degree. The 1-hour chart below shows the rally within wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 13494.25 and dips in wave ii ended at 13310.50. Wave iii ended at 13960.25, wave iv ended at 13794.25, and final wave v ended at 13979.25 which completed wave (i). Index then pullback in wave (ii) which ended at 13563.60.
The Index extended higher again in wave (iii) towards 14570 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 14336.75. Expect Index to extend higher in wave (v) to complete wave ((iii)). Afterwards, it should pullback in wave ((iv)) to correct cycle from 5.4.2023 low before the Index resumes higher again. Wave ((iv)) typically ends at 23.6 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of wave ((iii)). The target can be measured after wave ((iii)) is confirmed complete. Near term, as far as pivot at 13563.6 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
NQ | SHORT | QQQCME_MINI:NQ1!
Nasdaq will decline by 1 to 2 percent tomorrow as $NQ_F was rejected at the 50EMA. The next support level is projected to be between 1 and 2 percent below the current price.
US 100Stoch RSI getting very overbought. But the diagonal is missing the 5th. I think we have a push above 14,000-14,300 in some mini parabolic pump move then roll over into either Wave b or wave 2
