Long position US100 We see that the Nasdaq index has left its upward channel and is correcting yesterday's movement, and we can follow it on the upward path.
Nq100
NQ Bull Flag into Demand NQ - Daily - 14350
This is supply and demand to the tee on the NQ daily. You can see 4 days of resistance before price gapped up 580 points before pulling back. We are now retesting this area. After a demand that large, we are bound to see some sort of interest in buying within this area (theoretically).
If we are to bounce on NQ, this is likely the area we'd bounce. Either for a small relief bounce, or a large one. Keep an eye out here tomorrow.
NQ100NQ is approaching the resistance area and may rebound from there. I think it is an opportunity to sell
Nasdaq potential down move 🔻Weekly and daily charts show that , Nasdaq is in downtrend and the cross between daily order block and my favorite fibo levels creates a good situation to take short position.
🔴 notice that I will open the position if market shows reversal sign in lower timeframes.
Bearish On NasdaqAfter taking LIQUIDITY (Buyside/Ineficiency) Then Market will Drop to and through 14600
NQ Framing: anticipating seasonal LowHello everyone,
We have had a bearish weekly bias and have continued downward today crossing an important level.
As shared previously, I have been watching these levels in case we get a new low for October, surpassing the earlier one, signaling the seasonal low for Q4.
We are very close to breaking that level. Rarely do you come this close to an important level without reaching it.
I would like to see 14586 broken, for a new low.
There ARE levels below that, and of course anything is possible.
However, I will consider the break of 14586 the seasonal low for this quarter, unless
convincing signs of further downside occur.
Important to note we are framed by a weekly gap above and below- there is a lot of room between this range.
I will be looking for daily moves between those for now.
Have a great weekend!
Nasdaq Cucle
Next probable movmement for NQ1 will be Short from 15414.75 direction 14819.75
Disclaimer
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Key points for seasonality tracking Is the low in or notWe definitely saw a reaction after tapping into that daily FVG above.
I expected a retrace after that.
now we have to see if it finishes this as a small retracement or puts in a surprise new low for seasonality.
Price could retrace to and bounce off those FVG's or go past the last two lowest lows for a surprise.
We will know more after today and Monday.
these are the key points of interest I am watching.
Have a great weekend!
NQ: Downside target 14450 is a buyNQ should find support at 14450 which should provide a relief bounce to 15190.
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ Analysis dated 2023 Oct 02NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 Oct 02
Analysis from 02 Sep 2023 short scenario worked out well for the month.
- market broke down the upward channel (black dash)
- Supply is present on Friday's bar
- Wait for reaction to demand line of upward channel (blue highlight, set alarm)
Possible scenarios:
1) Market returns into upward channel and is supported = Long on test and accept
2) Short on rejection if bottom of channel becomes resistance.
Price Reaction Levels
Short on Test and reject | Long on Test and Accept
16255 15801 15283 14804 13960
*Longer term: 13350 support must hold for long trend to be intact.
Price/Volume/Trend Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close level with previous bar = NTC, Minor support
Daily: S>D weak close up bar.
*NTC = Non-Trend Changing | PTC: Potential Trend Changing
Like and follow if you find this useful | *For education purpose only.
Have a profitable trading week.
NASDAQ Bottom of the 2023 Channel but watch out if it breaks.The Nasdaq Index (NDX) has been basically trading sideways and around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since September 07. This led the price to the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up pattern that has been in effect since the December 29 2022 market bottom. The key Support trend-line has been the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) which has been holding since January 20.
As a result, this is the most optimal level to enter a buy (bottom of the Channel Up) and target Resistance 2 at 16570 (January 04 2022 High). If however the price breaks below the 1D MA100, we will take the loss and instead open a sell, targeting the 1.5 Fibonacci extension at 13900, on a potential contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
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NQ1!, Rollover, OPEX and etc.Am I bullish or bearish while looking at this daily chart? The answer is neither. A lot had happened this past week: contract rollover, CPI, PPI, quadruple witching. It seems like trading was a mess and chaotic. Many gurus preached on FinTwit to stay away from the market and preserve the capital. I do see a value in those warnings. Especially, for those who are not comfortable with reading the price action or does not have a grasp on what price levels are important. Market action creates a lot of noise and may derail any professional. My approach is to go to a higher timeframe to filter out the noise and most important to focus on the important price levels.
A Fib retracement on the chart gives those projected levels to focus on. Here is my price action dissection: multiple attempts to get over the 61.8% have failed, the price is pushed back hard to retest the levels below. I added a new rectangle as the area of interest. I do not attempt to predict whether those level hold or not. I let the market to show that. In my view, the price is stuck in a large consolidation area since June, a few fake outs in August pushed the price back in the middle of that consolidation. Usually, the middle of a consolidation area is where the price oscillates while both sides make attempts to gain control and this is exactly what we see since the last week of August.
09/16/2023
NQ1!, The Contract Rollover GameTo start off - no changes since the last post. A short week did not do much. However, this week is a start of the rollover to December contract. The adjustment is big and that put the price above the critical level 400. It feels like cheating to fool the machines to push higher. Let's see if the bluff is called :) The levels to watch remain the same - I'm referring to the Fib retracement.
9/9/2023
NQ1!, Market Keeps on TeasingIn the most recent action the price has managed to get back into the upside channel. Whether there is a real demand or just lack of supply remains to be seen. As of now the price has retested the 61.8% retracement of the bearish swing and failed to accept that level on first test. My focus is on the next level below the 50%: if it holds we may see the upside continuation to the channel mid, if not than the 23.6% is the next downside target. In the environment with high level of uncertainty focusing on small areas is a mechanism to protect yourself from a headache.
09/02/2023
NQ1!, Failed Attempt to Regain ControlA volatile week but no structural changes, or changes in the directionality. It seems the path to downside has been painted. But when it comes to the market nothing is guaranteed. One needs to think from the change or no change of current context. As of now, the H&S remain broken, the upside channel is broken. Nevertheless, my scenario 1 is
a horizontal development (consolidation) to build enough energy to either regain the channel bottom or resume the downside. A premature move up, thanks to one company earnings, had failed but don't assume it is over for the buyers. My scenario 2 is a push lower, could be premature as well.
Assumptions/predictions are the source of frustration and losses.
Let the market show which scenario is in play and tag along with no questions asked.
08/26/2023
NQ1! Filling the Right ShoulderBacktest of the broken balance, a confirmed Head and off to the Neckline - is the current theme for the market action. The Right shoulder of the projected H&S is being formed. Market is searching for the shoulder bottom. It may reach the lower edge of the channel, confluence with a yearly inflection level. I don't expect a breach of the Neckline soon. My anticipation is that the price would stay inside the Right shoulder for awhile similar to the Left shoulder and offer 2-sided setups for the traders.
08/12/2023
NQ weekly consolidation comes to end?Context:
Monthly, weekly - Uptrend (UT)
Daily - downtrend (DT)
Micro-structure:
Poor low from yesterday, excess high from Wednesday
Last Day:
Bearish break out from the range w/o much follow through (b-shape profile implies liquidation of longs, w/o new business). Price returned to the previous range.
Conclusion:
Healthy weekly consolidation. Daily DT comes to an exhaustion as bearish breakouts do not get follow through. If value moves into previous trading range it will be a very good signal for buyers. The only remaining problem for them is strong excess (unfilled gap) from Wednesday 2nd. We should also be cognizant of the fact that we have not yet seen any sign of meaningful buying . So sideway movement scenario is a very likely option
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advices, just sharing my thoughts
NQ1! Back test of the Broken BalanceThe week has started from a bullish retracement. From a technical perspective we see a back test of the channel mid and eventually a back test of the broken multi-day balance. The sentiment remains bearish. A retest of the previous session high would be a warning sign for the shorts. My expectation is to see a holding pattern ahead of the inflation data. Being in the upside channel is bullish and this is the reason the market is being resilient and does not drop like a rock after breaking the balance.
8/7/2023, pre-market
nasdaq future 55m poss. price action projection into the futurethis is the result of my analysis about the 55 min chart possible price action develepement. Just an idea, nothing seriouse worth to monitor ;) Pls leave a like when it worked out
this is das Ergbenis meiner Analyse über den 55 Min Chart mögliche Preisentwicklung. Nur eine idee, nichts gravierendes, Wert, im Auge zu behalten ;)
Bitte liken wenn es richtig war
NQ1! Supply and Demand LevelHello everyone! Huge news week ahead!
Trying out a new theme style for my charts and candles. Going to trial this for a few days-week to see if it is more appealing and easier to read as I trade.
Going into NY session, I am keeping open to this break above the trend line for a possible descending triangle. I would like to use the bottom demand zones as a pop up layer to get through the above 2-4HR supply zones. With the news releases I feel like we might have large momentum in either direction. Hoping I do not encounter any issues with my platform!
EOW Targets
BULLS: 15753 by the 45M inside zone looks interesting.
BEARS: 15360 by the 3HR zone and pivot target looks interesting.
SPY - NIKKEI225 - We're In The Great Depression + INCOME DATA
Problem with monetary fiscal policy and debasement? your markets start to hyperinflation especially when you try to patch previous bubbles *cough* QT *cough* BTFP *cough*
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The average net yearly income of Americans during 1930 was $4,887.01
Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) 8.7%
AFTER TAX - $4,788
$4,788 in 1930 is worth $87,476.76 today
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The average net yearly income of Americans during 1933 was $4,218.40
Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) 24.9%
AFTER TAX - $4,045
$4,045 in 1933 is worth $94,935.84 today
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------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- -------------
The average net yearly income of Americans during 2023 $74,738.
Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) 3.6%
AFTER TAX - $57,237
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CONCLUSION - The average American is 65.83% poorer than the average American during the great depression. Debasing the currency does not solve poverty and enhances it.
All of this data is from the IRS FRED seems to not provide information prior 1960 now you know why they don't include this on the charts.
Sadly I feel most people don't understand that what is coming is not a "recession" not a "08 RE crash" its going to be a foundational collapse of the entire US debt system / treasuries / stock markets / credit crisis / liquidity crisis.
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United States Government Debt: % of GDP 2023 = 133%
Japan General Government Gross Debt to GDP 1989 = 65%
Federal Debt: Total Public Debt Q1 2023: 31,458,438 or 31.4 Trillion
I'm personally putting a target for 2026 for the end of the US currency reserve system
The only option here is to either print more 100s of trillions than Weimar Germany
Or force the entire US & Allies onto a new dollar that will combine all G7 currencies.
Hopefully people can understand why there's so much controversial developments on
Russia & BRICS +, this current war is nothing to do with helping another country.
Its because BRICS see's the end of the US system and they are preparing for it.
(sources)
www.irs.gov
www.irs.gov
Tax rates include normal taxes of 1.5 percent on the first $4,000 of taxable income, 3 percent on the next $4,000, and 5 percent on taxable income over $8,000, plus applicable surtaxes. Last law to change rates was the Revenue Act of 1928.
NQ1!, Market Needs a Reason to SellLast session has retested monthly R1 confluence with the upper edge of the channel. Initial reaction, profit taking. This is all normal and supported by technical analysis. In my view, this is an objective way to look at the market action and remain on the right side of the chart. As the title suggests, the market needs a reason to sell which is a reverse of the current narrative.
As of now, I don't see it. Until then, one could buy pullbacks in alignment with smaller timeframe technicals.
Rate hikes, shrinking economy, inflation and etc. mess with the trader's mind. They assume that market should be sold and fight the trend. But the most hated upside move remains intact. Reactions(pullbacks) are not reversals. Looking at the chart the most recent breakout, from a highlighted consolidation has negated my previous idea that this is a potential head of an H&S. A pullback to retest the breakout is a buy opportunity. I anticipate a reaction on first test. Mid of the consolidation is a second place to consider buying, confluence with the upside channel mid.
Full disclosure: I'm not neither bull or bear. I only follow a typical price action scenarios.
Off the topic.
Regarding the shorting the market.
Shorting itself is entertained by hedge funds and retail traders. They want to outsmart the market and gain big returns. The investors don't short they sell the assets to relocate money into other assets. Passive investing, corporate buy-backs, 401k, pension funds only buy. They are a permanent source of keeping the bull market afloat.
For those who has an irresistible pull to short learn how to time it well and execute with a precision.
07/15/2023
