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Nq100

Nasdaq Prepares for Retracement Amidst USD MomentumThe Nasdaq, exhibits robust momentum as Friday begins However, signs indicate a potential retracement on the horizon, especially as observed in correlated pairs like EUR/USD. A pullback would offer the Nasdaq, along with the DJ and S&P500 indices, an opportunity to consolidate before resuming upward movement. Market participants are bolstering their positions in the Greenback, anticipating the Federal Reserve to scale back its projected interest rate cuts from three to at most two. This shift is prompted by ongoing economic data signaling a healthy pace of growth in the US economy. Despite a lack of major economic releases scheduled for Friday, investors will closely monitor speeches from three US Federal Reserve officials. Foremost among them is Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, scheduled to address the market around 13:00 GMT. In summary, the Nasdaq prepares for a potential retracement amidst USD momentum, with investors eyeing upcoming Fed speeches for further market cues. This trading strategy is oriented towards scalping. Please ensure careful management of your funds if you decide to replicate our personal trading approach.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by FOREXN1
2
NQ Bearish Structure | Looking for a possibly 2-legged pullbackNQ has broken its structure to the downside, disrupting the bullish pattern that had been ongoing for a while. I am looking for an hourly two-legged pullback to the ~70% retracement zone before making a new low, since the price has broken above a prior lower high. This suggests that buyers want to see higher prices before we possibly make a lower low. There is an hourly demand zone around 18200-18170, which I suspect buyers will try to use to push prices higher.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by AmpedTrading
Dow JonesMain analysis on #DowJones US30 is this. We hit a ST top soon around 38,500-39,000. Then we retest the 2021 high breakout before running straight parabolic all gas no breaks bears slaughtered all the way up to 44,150. Then major 4th can hit. So Just be warned now. Once 36,400 flips into support there will be 0 rest for bears. It will be explosive and relentless. Like Toyota Supra filled with Nitrogen and twin turbo engine running at peak performance level. And BigMike & BigMikes team will be Bulls, laughing all the way to the f**king bank. FYI 😉
DJ:DJILong
by Big_Mike716
NAS100 - MY INTRADAY ANALYSIS (TARGET 16630)Here I'm trying to change things up with a smaller timeframe (15min) analysis because the daily is nice but how does one trade that? Well here you have it. What is on the chart? 1) Yesterday's session low, aka sellside liquidity, that hasn't yet been taken out which gives us a juicy target for the day. 2) Yesterday's consolidation that gave the upper hand to bulls in the AM session but now it serves us for our bearish bias of the day. 3) Price wicking once more in the daily FVG and not taking out the high. Great news for bears. 4) Price retraced back into the reload zone (0.702 notably) and furthered its descent into bear territory. 5) Bearish 1 hour order block. Will be used partly for our entry coupled with the fibs. 6) London session lows that will also serve as a target. When there's an accumulation of targets it increases the probability of success when placing a trade aiming in that direction. 7) My ideal entry. To your own discretion, I can afford losing 1%, can you? (affording something isn't just monetary can also be psychological. Can you cope with losing your money once more because of the idea of a stranger on the internet?) 8) The outcome I'm looking for. If we're going for a bearish scenario this is what should (I want to) happen. NOTE: Retail Sales data release 08:30 NY time. Could make it or break it. Happy trading and have a nice day! ;)
FX:NAS100Short
by Lexi_Is_Trading
2
Nasdaq Breaking highs! Entryy??It looks like NQ should break the weekly highs here and it should be looking backwards be a strong push ahead but because of the current market conditions this could simply be a liquidity grab before going back downwards especially if interest rates are raised next quarter. Would I swing here for the long run? Absolutely not! Wait for some kind of a confirmation for long term entries. Super risky to hold if you're up. At least take partials if you are. Day traders and short term swing traders should in my opinion, have a bullish bias to start this week and look for bullish entries if given any retracement + entry signals according to your strategies. That's what I see, what do you guys think? (Reason for current bullish move: Ease on interest rates, declining USD and golden zone fib retracement, "historically" showing upwards momentum after so there should be many buyers in the market.)
EIGHTCAP:NDQ100
by xxlvision
NQ1!, Contract Rollover to RescueGap ups/downs are a strategy used to overcome stubborn levels. The most recent contract rollover is no exception. Opening way above the inflection level guaranteed a bullish session for the NFP day (12/8). The market is positioned for an upside continuation. We may still see some consolidation in the upper part of the channel, representing a clear bull flag formation, before a final push through 16320 inflection level. Perhaps the most anticipated Santa rally this season. A less anticipated scenario: the price returns in the lower part of the channel and consolidates. That may lead to the channel breakdown. As a day trader I focus on rotations only, I trade rotations. What causes them is not my concern. I took awhile to adapt to this way of thinking. I can anticipate a potential rotation based on the technicals though but the ultimate word is left to the market. Prediction vs anticipation is a big topic. A smaller timeframe is used to watch the price action around an inflection level to confirm a beginning of a rotation. Abstracting the price action through the lens of rotations keeps a trader less biased and ultimately less irritated when the market ignores the collective consensus. A random thought. In the age of informational flood it is a very difficult job to be a stoic trader. A trader does not need to be obsessed with tools and indicators to be profitable, he needs to stay objective. A simple rule: a support is support until's broken will make you money in the long run and this is an objective way of trading. Cheers. 12/9/2023
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ OverviewThe NQ 1-hour chart depicts a clear trading range between the key resistance at 16,085 and the current key support at 15,940, with a prevailing bullish sentiment within this range. Below the key support, a previously tested demand zone ranging from 15,930 to 15,890 exists. Shorting into this demand zone carries high risk, requiring a loss of the key support level at 15,830 to trigger a substantial pullback. My trading plan involves exploring short scalping opportunities at the upper range boundary, with conservative targets of 5-10 points, given the elevated risk associated with shorting. Additionally, I plan to consider long positions at key support and demand levels, contingent on the continuation of demand and support signals. It's noteworthy that NQ is potentially forming a bullish flag pattern with support at 15,940, characterized by lower highs forming into support, suggesting a possible breakout. The question of how long NQ can sustain its ascent before a pullback is a valid one. However, it's essential not to let speculative scenarios influence your bias and instead focus on trading based on observed price action and chart analysis, which currently supports a bullish sentiment.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by AmpedTrading
NQ 4-Hour Bull FlagA potential bull flag is emerging on the NQ 4-hour chart, with the 15945 level acting as critical support. As the market experiences a period of consolidation, we observe a gradual descent towards this support zone. This consolidation phase, following a prolonged bull run, raises questions about the market's next move: will the bull flag lead to another upward leg, or are we poised for a necessary pullback? Both NQ and ES are currently in a cooling-off phase, forming additional breakout patterns. On a higher time frame, the key support to monitor remains at the 15945 zone.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by AmpedTrading
How the Grinch Stole Black FridayCME: E-Mini S&P 500 Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! ), E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Options ( CME_MINI:NQ1! ) Initial data from the biggest U.S. shopping day sends a mixed signal. • E-commerce sales on Friday increased by 8.5% year-over-year, while in-store sales grew by just 1.1%, according to MasterCard Spendingpulse. The aggregate Black Friday retail sales rose 2.5%, excluding automotive sales and not adjusted for inflation. • Adobe Analytics estimated that Black Friday shoppers spent a record $9.8 billion in U.S. online sales, up 7.5% from last year, according to Bloomberg. • Brokerage TD Cowen lowered its U.S. holiday spending estimate to 2-3% growth, from 4-5%, as it forecasts flat Black Friday traffic. On Friday, I toured a dozen stores in Alton, Illinois, a small midwestern town where the Illinois River and Missouri River merge and form the mighty Mississippi. My trip covers big box retailers Kohl and Target, discount retailer Walmart, home improvement store Home Depot, specialty store Big Lot, thrift stores Dollar Tree and Goodwill, and the Alton Square Mall. My unscientific survey reveals some common patterns: unfilled parking lot, low frequency of shoppers coming in and out, no crowd in the store, and a short wait line at the checkout counter. What’s missing this year are the deeply discounted and limited quantity Big Ticket merchandises that drive shoppers to the stores at 5:00 a.m. After taking the 4% core CPI into account, the real growth in Black Friday sales comes to a negative number. Shoppers are paying more for fewer merchandises. The Grinch who stole the show is inflation. While inflation rate has been in decline this year, it only means a slower rate of price increase. The absolute price level continues rising. CPI for All Urban Consumers is 307.7 in October 2023, up from 252.9 in October 2018. The cumulative price increase in the last five years is 21.7%. While online sales is very robust, in-store purchases are more subdued. However, even though Black Friday is not as exciting as it used to be, U.S. consumers are remarkedly resilient when it comes to holiday shopping. When cash saving is depleted, they tap into credit card borrowing. Once credit limit is maxed out, they opt for the “buy now pay later” option offered by many stores and payment apps. As long as the job market stays strong, the deterioration of consumer spending will be a slow process. In my writing last week, I hypothesized that the U.S. retail sector could collapse if holiday shopping falters. With a mixed signal from Black Friday, we need to monitor Cyber Monday and the rest of the holiday shopping season to validate this claim. Year-to-date Performance by Asset Class As we are fast approaching the end of 2023, I want to pause and compare how major market assets performed so far. Below are year-to-date returns, ranking from high to low, for eight financial instruments. They each represent a major asset class: 1. Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency): +132.2% 2. S&P 500 (Equity Index): +18.8% 3. Gold (Precious Metal): +8.5% 4. Euro (Forex): +3.1% 5. Copper (Base Metal): +0.6% 6. WTI (Energy): -1.8% 7. 10-Year Bond (Fixed Income): -9.0% 8. Corn (Agricultural): -30.9% The stock market has an above-average annual gain, while cryptocurrencies have out-of-the-chart extraordinary performance. The rest of the asset classes either have mediocre returns or lost money for investors. One may tend to think what’s flying high now will continue to fly high. Is that true? Back testing this using the 2022 annual return, we will see completely different ranking: 1. Corn (Agricultural): +13.8% 2. Gold (Precious Metal): +2.6% 3. WTI (Energy): -0.7% 4. Euro (Forex): -6.2% 5. Copper (Base Metal): -14.8% 6. S&P 500 (Equity Index): +19.6% 7. 10-Year Bond (Fixed Income): -20.0% 8. Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency): -63.8% Corn, the loss-leader in 2023, was the champion star performer in 2022. Bitcoin lost the most last year, then rebounded and climbed the highest this year. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. We can’t emphasize enough this plain simple truth. The Battle between the Fed and Market Expectation The Fed’s rate decision remains the single most important factor that drives market direction. Currently, investors price in an aggressive rate-cutting schedule for the Fed, while the Fed adapts to a step-by-step approach to rate decision-making. As time goes by, market expectation and the Fed decision will have to converge. We may not know who will give in first, but jobs and inflation data released ahead of the Fed meeting could carry invaluable insight. In my writeup, “Fed Pivot Breathes Life into Markets”, published on November 6th, I explored the idea of using stock index options to trade the events of big reports. The November jobs report will be released on December 8th, and the November CPI data will be published on December 12th. These big reports, available to the Fed right before the December 15th FOMC, could have a major impact on its rate decision. Consider this: Stock market volatility is at a 3-year low. VIX is currently quoting 12.5, down from about 26 in March. You could find asset-specific volatility using CME Group’s CVOL data. We know that options value is positively correlated with volatility. A low volatility suppressed the premium of both call and put options. My theory: The cost of acquiring options is getting lower. If a big report comes in beyond market expectation, volatility could spike, making the options more valuable. What’s more: with stock indexes trending up, put options get even cheaper. Therefore, the time may be ripe to trade the options on CME E-Mini stock index futures. CME E-Mini S&P 500 index futures ( NYSE:ES ) has a notional value of $50 times the index. With the underlying December futures ESZ3 settled at 4568.25 last Friday, an out-of-the-money (OTM) put options with the strike price of 4500 is quoted 21.50. An OTC call with 4650-strike is quoted 13.00. To acquire one put options, a trader will pay a premium of $1,075 (= 50 x 21.50) up front. The cost of one call options is $650 (=50 x 13.00). CME E-Mini Nasdaq index futures ( SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ ) has a notional value of $20 times the index. With the December futures NQZ3 settled at 16,011, an OTM put options with a 15,500-strike is quoted 66.75. An OTC call with a 16,500-strike is quoted 49.50. To acquire one put options, a trader will pay a premium of $1,335 (= 20 x 66.75) up front. The cost of one call options is $990 (=20 x 49.50). If ES and NQ rise, call options would become more valuable, while put options decline in value. When the market turns against the trader, he could lose money, up to but not beyond the upfront premium. Similarly, if ES and NQ fall, put options would gain while call options lose out. When the trader is wrong, he could lose money, up to but not beyond the upfront premium. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by JimHuangChicago
NQ Uptrend Still BullishWhen evaluating whether to take a short or long position, it's crucial to observe current trends. For example, the NQ 4-hour chart maintains its uptrend as it hasn't broken any higher lows. This was evident during a live chat I observed today, where some traders were initiating short positions anticipating a "flush." However, their rationale wasn't clear. Understanding the shift in trends, characterized by breaking higher lows followed by forming lower highs and lower lows, is a key aspect in determining your trading bias across all time frames. Although the 4-hour trend is still strongly bullish, the 1 to 5-minute timeframe may exhibit a "pullback," offering short-term intraday shorting opportunities. However, it's important to be aware that this strategy goes against the dominant bullish trend in a higher time frame and is very high risk.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by AmpedTrading
NQ 6H OverviewOverview NQ seems to be operating within a descending triangle pattern at the moment. This formation doesn't necessarily indicate a bullish or bearish trend, but a breakout in either direction could provide significant insights. In addition to the descending triangle, it's evident that we're currently ranging between two crucial levels: 16000, which acts as a major supply zone, and 15800, serving as a significant break and retest zone. If the 15800 level holds strong, we might see a move towards 16000 or higher. Conversely, if 15800 is breached, there's a possibility of a decline to the 15600 level, the next demand zone, or even to 15450, another notable break and retest zone. Key Levels Supply: 16000 Demand: 15600 Break and Retest Zones: 15800 & 15450
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by AmpedTrading