NQ held the lows, first target is 12200, then 12300NQ held the lows after the open and made a higher low on smaller timeframe
- first target is 12200, then 12300
Main resistance is at 12320-30 now, needs above that resistance cluster visible on the chart.
Ideally we at least hit 12700 and I would really want to see a higher high by mid month just to screw everyone out!
A higher high and higher low on Fri makes me believe we have bottomed and should push higher now.
Im long
Nq100
NQ has a chance to push hereUpdated chart
Needs to hold the broken trend channel, ideally we re-test the broken down zone of 260, might not get as far if this is for real.
Has to take 188-90 for the 260 become next main target
New target to hold is 12030+-
Very important to hold! I dont want to be in a crash mode, but no one expects it makes it more probable.
So be careful!
P.S. I like this downtrend channel, much better then another bear flag, when we break it, we can finally be moving. 12030 target looks good for the touch of the bottom trendline
Bear flag after bear flag2 days straight, this is about to break, must hold and gap up from here, or we go down much lower into 12000-30 zone
SPX closed not great as well, in the support cluster zone, tomorrow is a turning day, so can gap down and reverse into the 5th high.
I have already mentioned a possibility of a crash move, have to be super careful!
SPX/SP500/SPY bull or bear?Wide look - 1994 - 2022 massive broadenings that can range 35-50% drawdowns. A widening in price indicating volatility triggered by macro and micro events. This year's high to low 25% or 1182 points on the SP500.
On the daily inside this 8 month broadening pattern - while we've seen rally's and flushes, all it did was build up this pattern.
Zero volume analysis here of which move was real which wasn't, just look at this 30 year fib channel and how price moved by forming massive consolidations and reactions on each tier.
Daily -
Tight spot leading into this week. For the bulls - a breakout of this formation with a pullback retest could indicate a sentiment change.
While strong rally into resistance there is also a potential bearish butterfly harmonic at play for the bears. A rejection at resistance would be validating towards the harmonic. No confirmation of a reversal point yet simply because we need more candles to see and nothing is certain until a candle closes.
If butterfly valid - retrace to a 0.5 (3982) is first thing to look for. Could bounce could see continuation lower and ultimately the 1.618 (3216) measured move assuming it retraces through 1.0 (3639)
If breakout, retest and hold - would be looking at some weekly supply reactions starting at 4541 and then above areas towards previous ATH.
Watch it day by day as there's no way to guess what actually happens when you hit demand or supply/ support or resistance. There will be buyers/sellers waiting there but it's dependent in the end if one side overcomes the other and pushes it through the zone.
Also note - overall trend above the 200ma and candle on the 40ma
NQ into the resistance zoneOn the road all day, quick chart update from my phone.
Im flat at the moment, will short one more if it back to 13009-13, tight stop.
We didn’t get a follow through at night, but we did make a new low, I covered 50% there and the rest was stopped at night.
Now watching for lower low or double bottom. Above can be a sign of the temp low in place
NAZDAQThe Nasdaq index (the average of American technology companies), which has recently had a movement correlation with Bitcoin and the crypto market, has weakened after breaking its static and dynamic resistance, and due to the fact that it seems to have broken the resistance, it has made a pullback, but the intensity of this pullback was high. and increases the probability of returning below the support range.
NQ zoomed outIf this really goes, then 12700 will be a quick stop and it can fell very much all the way to 12200-60
There is an interesting trend line cross support at 12200 level, something to watch and visible on my chart
Support numbers below
12700
12450-60
12200-60
Needs to open tomorrow above today's highs to make it turned up and see a high on the 25th instead of a low.
3 orange lines are my support targets
NQ didnt get a follow through at night, stopped half wayI want to point out this bear flag, both on the ES and the NQ, perfect fib alignment into 12703-20 zone.
Tomorrow is a panic cycle day, will it be a gap down and reversal or we just break down?
My timing for the low is still the 25th and possibly 29th
Will do ES update next
Market won't crash when everybody is prepared for itMarket won't crash when everybody is prepared for it.
my first target is Nasdaq to 14000.
No one expects another gap down tomorrow...It seems everyone is bullish now and desperate for a move up.
There is a chance of seeing the whole move down to 12700-20 by tomorrow tomorrow am!
I will be shorting any bounce with a tight stop and going long at 12700-20 for a good size move up, maybe even to new highs.
The R/R is much better at 12700-20 then at this point.
Have a good night