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NASDAQ 100 E-MINI FUTURES

Forget Soft, Hard Or No Landing, Higher For Longer...Is the Stock Market Dead Money For The Next 10-20 Years? So much of how our markets work is based on optimism. Can you imagine being a money manager and your entire sales pitch is some negative diatribe about how the market is going down and will continue to go down? Would you fork over your hard-earned savings based on such a story? Not a successful plan of attack for a person trying to raise capital if you ask me. However, therein lies the disconnect between what is really going on in today’s market, versus what the average person reads and hears in the financial news. The same optimistic money managers sponsor those articles or those TV shows. Would your business buy an ad on a show or in a magazine that constantly gave a negative outlook on your business? I’ve always considered myself an optimist. However, nowadays, I find nothing to be optimistic about with respect to the US stock markets. The reason is, my prevailing analytical thesis is, the markets are now entering a long-term cycle in which many aspects of our economy will be reverting to their respective long-term mean. From interest rates, to income inequality. This time frame, I refer to, is meant to be a reset in expectations. If I am correct in my analysis, this will unfold over a long period of time. During this period, many of old correlations and metrics used to determine the value of the stock market, assets in general, (housing, for example) will break down and end up becoming less useful to those who fundamentally analyze assets, stocks and the markets for a living. The cycle I am referring to is one in which none of the current market participants have experienced. Now before you draw a hasty conclusion, and think this article is about me warning you, the reader, a 1987 stock market crash scenario is on the horizon, I’ll caution you. It is not. However, my analysis shows that the market will essentially become dead money for at least the next decade or two. That means buying most market-based asset classes, and holding them, will not produce the desired results of the past. Please indulge me while I provide some background and explain. I practice a form of market analysis that is exclusively focused on price action. I guess you could sum up my work by styling me as a pattern analyst. That means stock market news, events, corporate earnings and all external data is of little concern to me as I carry out my day-to-day analysis on the SP500. I never take those external events into account while analyzing any of the markets I cover. I watch the patterns market participants create with their buys and sells. I study those patterns across the many markets I cover and over both the short and extremely long periods of time. One could say I took my mother’s advice to heart, and watch what they do, not what they say. It’s the law large crowds, and the larger the crowd, the more accurate the forecast. The SP500 contains one of the largest crowds assembled. Each day it involves millions of participants, exchanging large volumes of assets for vast sums of money. Suffice to say, my work can produce some scary accurate forecasts based on the participation of the crowds in those markets. A final anecdote to explain my work lies in a simple experiment I observed some time ago on YouTube. To illustrate the power of large crowds, a YouTuber decides to conduct an experiment. The individual fills a large mason jar with marbles. The half gallon sized mason jar is now brimming with marbles, and the metal lid is twisted on, sealing the jar. The individual then attends a local carnival and sets up a booth to solicit guesses as to the total amount of marbles contained in the mason jar. Volunteers are asked to simply observe the jar, and write down their guesses on a post-it-note. After collecting a large number of post-it-notes, the guesses are entered into a spreadsheet. Next, the marbles are emptied on a carpet and counted. 1340 marbles. Comparing the spreadsheet data, the conclusion was, although some volunteers came close in guessing the correct number of marbles, no one guessed correctly. Guesses ranged from as low as 300 to as high as 3,000. A seemingly random data set. However, under further examination, the average of the total guesses were 1335 marbles. This simple experiment explains the legitimacy of some sort of “inexplicable collective consciences” when involving a large crowd. My current bearish perspective manifests itself in this same notion of the large crowd of market participants but over an extremely long-time frame of the SP500 (INDEXSP: .INX). Below is a chart of the price action of the index from inception. To put a simple explanation on the chart above. Since the stock market crash of 1929, the price pattern of the SP500 has essentially advanced in a 45-degree angle higher. I will spare you my explanation of the labeling of the chart as to not bore you as those details do little to further my explanation of the analysis. However, I will state that all our society has achieved since in the last 150 years is notated on the above chart. The advancement of technology, medicine, communication, war and peace is all included. For me, this becomes a visual picture of some of the best and worst times humanity has experienced during this time. What is compelling, is some of those pivotal moments barely stands out on the chart. Fast forward to today. After almost a 100-year price advance from the 1929 crash, we are now entering a prolonged period of digesting all those gains. I cannot over emphasize that this area of consolidation I forecast is 100% natural and should be no cause for alarm from a pattern analysis standpoint. As stated, that is a simplified explanation of what a super cycle event wave (IV) accomplishes. Additionally, our last Supercycle event, labeled (II), is an area of digesting gains that was hastened once the events of the Spanish Flu of 1918 were behind us and that pent-up demand was unleased. In the US, those times are referred to as the roaring twenties. Cyclically there are many character similarities in our wave (II) and our current wave (IV). Chief among them was a global pandemic and the aftermath. However, in my form analysis, a wave (II) and a wave (IV) are supposed to alternate in terms of time duration and retracement depth. If one takes place over a short period of time, the other should be long. I can see this sort of alternation I refer to take place every day, as it pertains to the very short timeframes. These patterns, whether long or short term, tend to be fractal in nature. Meaning, if you removed the dates and timeframes from a 1-hour chart of the SP500 and a 150-year chart (like the one displayed above) they would look strikingly similar. To a pattern analyst, like myself, I would be unable to discern what timeframe I was looking at. Nonetheless, the patterns would be instantly recognizable. Because these fractals form and complete on the smaller timeframes, through observation we can forecast the same effects on the much longer time duration charts. These fractal patterns tend to be self-similar and repeating. In conclusion, if what I see unfold each and every day is indeed similar and repeating when observing a price pattern that is 150 years in the making, the conclusion will be a decade or two of dead money due to a long-term cyclical digestion of gains. Call it a “massive reversion to the mean event”. From things like interest rates to income inequality, a total reset to longer term norms. Additionally, if my analysis is correct, the January 2022 stock market highs will not be breached for a very long time to come. This will be a time where investors will be forced to become more creative and pickier, as it pertains to seeking a return on capital.
TVC:US30YShort
by maikisch
7
A deep dive into Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1.Greetings, I find my previous communication regarding the US dollar was perhaps insufficient in elaborating my viewpoint. Therefore, I have resolved to delve deeper in this correspondence, presenting a thorough analysis to substantiate my conviction that the US dollar is poised for a considerable mark-up phase, from a technical standpoint. I must clarify that I am not an advocate of fundamental analysis; my interests lie predominantly within the realm of technical patterns. I envisage this upward movement initiating around August 10th, which coincidentally corresponds with a significant Consumer Price Index reading. --- Foremost, let me clarify that my analysis is grounded in the original Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1, composed of approximately five distinct phases. It is my endeavor to convey an understandable summary of these phases to you, my esteemed reader. ↓ ↓ ◆::◇::◆::◇::◆◆::◇::◆::◇::◆ Phase A: In the Wyckoff Method represents the end of a downward trend in a stock's price. It starts with a significant sell-off (Selling Climax), followed by a brief price recovery (Automatic Rally), and then a less intense sell-off (Secondary Test). These events establish a trading range for the stock price. If the Secondary Test drops below the Selling Climax, further price drops or extended low prices can be expected. ◆::◇::◆::◇::◆◆::◇::◆::◇::◆ Phase B: In Wyckoff's Method is a period of "building a cause," essentially preparing for a new upward trend. Institutions and professional investors start buying more shares at relatively low prices, anticipating a future price rise (the effect). They balance this buying with some short sales to keep the price from rising too fast. During this phase, the price often fluctuates within the trading range established in Phase A, with many Secondary Tests and false price breaks called "upthrusts." This phase can take a long time as big players slowly accumulate shares. As more shares are bought up, the volume of shares traded during price downswings tends to decrease, signaling the end of Phase B and the start of Phase C. ◆::◇::◆::◇::◆◆::◇::◆::◇::◆ Phase C: In Wyckoff's Method is where the stock price is tested to see if it's ready for an upward trend. This phase often includes a "spring", a sudden drop below the established trading range that quickly reverses. This can trick late sellers into thinking the downtrend is resuming when it's actually the start of an uptrend. A successful spring represents a good opportunity to buy as it signals the stock is likely to start going up. If a "Sign of Strength" (SOS), a noticeable upward price movement, appears after the spring, it confirms this analysis. Sometimes, supply testing can happen without a spring, making Phase C harder to identify. ◆::◇::◆::◇::◆◆::◇::◆::◇::◆ Phase D: In Wyckoff's Method is when demand starts consistently exceeding supply, leading to a dominant upward trend. This phase is marked by "Signs of Strength" (SOSs), or notable upward price movements on high volume, and "Last Points of Support" (LPSs), smaller upward price movements on lower volume. The price will typically reach the top of the trading range during this phase. The LPSs are generally good opportunities to start or add to long positions as they suggest the price is likely to continue rising. ◆::◇::◆::◇::◆◆::◇::◆::◇::◆ Phase E: In Wyckoff's Method is when the stock price leaves the trading range and begins a clear upward trend, with demand in full control. Any price drops during this phase are usually brief. New higher-level trading ranges can form during this phase as investors take profits and large operators buy more shares, serving as "stepping stones" towards higher prices. This phase makes the price rise visible to all market participants. ◆::◇::◆::◇::◆◆::◇::◆::◇::◆ Glossary of the Wyckoff terms used in the post: PS (Preliminary Support): A point where significant buying starts to happen after a prolonged price decrease. The increased volume and price spread suggest the downtrend might be ending. SC (Selling Climax): The peak of selling activity, often involving panic selling by the public. Large investors absorb this selling, which can stabilize or increase the price. The price often closes well above the low point, reflecting these large investors' buying activity. AR (Automatic Rally): A price increase that happens because selling pressure has significantly decreased. This rally, further driven by short covering, helps set the upper boundary of the accumulation trading range. ST (Secondary Test): The price revisits the area of the selling climax to test if demand outweighs supply. To confirm a bottom, the volume and price spread should decrease significantly as the price approaches the support level. It's common to have multiple secondary tests after a selling climax. Test: Large operators or professional investors test the market for supply throughout the trading range and at key points during a price advance. If a test reveals considerable supply, the market might not be ready for a markup. A spring is often followed by tests, and a successful test (indicating impending price increases) typically forms a higher low on lower volume. SOS (Sign of Strength): This is a price advance on an increasing spread and relatively higher volume. An SOS often follows a spring, which validates the analyst’s interpretation of that action. LPS (Last Point of Support): This is the low point of a reaction or pullback after an SOS. Reverting to an LPS implies a pullback to a support level, which was formerly resistance, on a decreased spread and volume. Despite the singular term, there may be multiple LPSs on some charts. BU (Back-Up): Coined by Robert Evans, a prominent Wyckoff method teacher, it's a metaphor for a pullback after an SOS, akin to "jumping across the creek" of price resistance and then "backing up to the creek." A back-up often precedes a significant price markup and can appear as a simple pullback or a new trading range at a higher level. ◆::◇::◆::◇::◆◆::◇::◆::◇::◆ I appreciate your time in perusing this analysis. In conclusion, I foresee the US dollar potentially reaching an upside target of approximately 110-111 into the end of this year. Lastly, I invite you to revisit my prior substantial post on the US dollar, wherein I had the occasion to pinpoint "the top". ↓ 💜
ICEUS:DX1!Long
by notoriousbids
1
NASDAQ Small glimmer of hope as 1D making a MACD Bullish Cross.Nasdaq (NDX) recently broke below the Higher Lows trend-line of 2023, the trend-line from the start of the year that has been supporting the strong recovery. This created the conditions for further decline, especially since the 4H MA50 keeps the price action below it, but so far Support 1 (14430) is holding. The above levels are those we will use as break-outs. A candle close below Support 1 will be a sell signal, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 13900. Since however the 1D MACD is close to forming a Bullish Cross, the bullish momentum attract probabilities and if a candle closes above the 1D MA50, we will instead buy, targeting 15650 (Resistance). The pattern since mid August is quite similar to the Arc formation of November - December 2022. After the 1D MA50 broke, it targeted the previous Resistance and even hit the 1.382 Fibonacci extension before the next pull-back. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100
by TradingShot
1
Trend reversal to the UPSIDE if Nq! Holds 100 EMA on DailyLooking at today's Bounce with high Volume, the Nasdaq futures have again reclaimed 100 EMA on the daily timeframe. There is a very high probability that Nasdaq Futures will go higher in coming days and test 50 day EMA. If it closes above 14,809 tomorrow, then this is the trend reversal and we are again in the bullish trend. Keep an eye on the 100 EMA, if it looses then there will be a lot of selling to the short side. As of now we are very bullish in coming days till Friday. And then we can analyze the closing of the week.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by TradesByAdvait
US is running a clinic on how to self-inflict financial woundsEarlier today I was on a conference call with traders examining the index price patterns and discussing the initial price action of The SP500 (INDEXSP: .INX) and the Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ: .IXIC) off their July highs. Currently my company is forecasting we revisit, and ultimately breach the October 2022 lows sometime in the first half of 2024. However, what the catalysts are to get us there is speculation. A black swan event of such some stature would need to unfold. Mid conference call one of the attendees’ types into the zoom chat box, "McCarthy was just removed as speaker!" On the call was a collective...whoa! I could understand some of you reading this article would say, so what! The US congress has been dysfunctional for some time now. Unfortunately, I would agree and could not find fault with such apathy.  However, consider the unintended consequences of such a historic action. Never has a US speaker of the house been removed in such fashion. What could develop into unintended consequences?  Which such acrimony and division in the lower chamber how can the house agree on anything? The hill conservatives in the house want to die on is the growing national debt. Whether that is disingenuous or not is not the point of this article. I'll let the political pundits argue that. I want to keep this article focused on what is directly related to the US markets. Government Funding Through some rare bipartisanship we averted a government shut down just this past weekend.  Leading up to this weekend, the news media had all but written the obituary for a funded government through regular order.  However, the legislation only funded the government for 47 days. That means it's possible we're back to worrying about a funded US government next month. Rating Agencies I have to admit when Fitch downgraded the credit rating of US government debt in August, I was skeptical of that decision. In retrospect, I now understand with all the self-inflicted uncertainty. However, do we need to now worry about Moodys and Standard & Poors.  What is the consequence to interest rates if the US credit rating becomes under assault.   Interest Rates The US markets have yet to acknowledge high interest rates are a structural headwind for company earnings and by extension, the market as a whole.  Case in point, the below chart shows the yield on the 10y treasury. 10-year US Treasury Chart Today, yields are higher than when at the October 2022 lows.  The uncertainty created today by historically removing a US speaker of the house does not scream the US should be getting a lower rate on it’s debt. No, it most certainly means the opposite. Mortgage Rates 12% of US GDP is housing. Aside from Fed action, if rates now go up because of the added uncertainty, we could easily go from positive to negative GDP.  No US sector is more rate sensitive than housing. Consumer Spending If you thought housing at 12% of GDP was large, the consumer represents 70%.  From mortgages, to credit card debt, the consumer was already starting to slow. Higher rates due to uncertainty will cause the consumer recoil, and that's the ballgame. I could go on about current labor strikes in America and how that could change the employment outlook and the economy on a dime.  I could discuss in depth the quantitative tightening action of the federal reserve.  All concerns we're currently trying to weigh its impact on the economy. Now we have to deal with this new added uncertainty. It appears in the US we know how to run a clinic on self-inflicted wounds. 
SP:SPXShort
by maikisch
NASDAQ: Can hit 17,000 if the 1D MA50 breaks again.Nasdaq remains bearish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 40.412, MACD = -138.180, ADX = 35.654) but it is on the HL trendline, the supporting trendline that emerged on the December 28th 2022 low. According to the 1D RSI, comparisons can be made with the September-October 2020 consolidation fractal around the 1D MA50, following the COVID recovery. After the 1D MA50 got crossed over for the second time, the index went on to reach the 1.786 Fibonacci extension level before the next consolidation. If the HL holds and the index breaks over the 1D MA50 again, we will have a strong long term bullish case in our hands and target 17,000 (Fibonacci 1.786). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestingScope
Are the Bears about to get BOLD?In my latest installment of the repeating Sentiment chart, we get a front row seat on how trader sentiment ebbs and flows with price action. Once we hit the target of 4172-4180, that will be a function of the bearish thesis getting aggressive. A complete unwinding of the utter junk spewed on CNBC a month ago. New highs possible? Soft landing? The magnificent seven? I stand by the comment I made in my trading room yesterday... CNBC is the most detrimental content I professional trader can ingest. Why is Tom Lee not on CNBC today? LOL... Stay safe out there. Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
5
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ Analysis dated 2023 Oct 02NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 Oct 02 Analysis from 02 Sep 2023 short scenario worked out well for the month. - market broke down the upward channel (black dash) - Supply is present on Friday's bar - Wait for reaction to demand line of upward channel (blue highlight, set alarm) Possible scenarios: 1) Market returns into upward channel and is supported = Long on test and accept 2) Short on rejection if bottom of channel becomes resistance. Price Reaction Levels Short on Test and reject | Long on Test and Accept 16255 15801 15283 14804 13960 *Longer term: 13350 support must hold for long trend to be intact. Price/Volume/Trend Analysis: Weekly: Ave vol up bar close level with previous bar = NTC, Minor support Daily: S>D weak close up bar. *NTC = Non-Trend Changing | PTC: Potential Trend Changing Like and follow if you find this useful | *For education purpose only. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by paradox677
Nasdaq Futures are at the crucial point. For NASDAQ Contracts to go higher, they need to clear out the 14,950 level. If they get rejected from 14,950, then look for downside. On the other hand 14,800 is acting as a good support. wait till the Michigan consumer sentiment data release tomorrow before taking any position. do not trade for the first half hour after the open since there is a lot of data release like PCE before market. we were already down by almost 9 percent, since few days from recent highs. Very good chance of a getting and inside day tomorrow. there are high chances of us getting a follow through tomorrow on the bullish side. It is also the end of the month for positioning stand point so be aware and trade after 1 hour of market open to avoid unnecessary risk.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by TradesByAdvait
NASDAQ Triple buy signal on the short term.Nasdaq hit yesterday the Falling Support of the Falling Wedge pattern as well as the Rising Support and is posting today the 2nd straight green (1d) candle. At the same time, the RSI (1d) formed a Double Bottom. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 15300 (Falling Resistance and 0.786 Fib). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is under a Falling Resistance. If crossed over we may start having a case for resuming the bullish trend. Please like, follow and comment!!
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by TradingBrokersView
4
All Targets Hit in the SP500 FuturesToday we hit my long standing targets and so far have bounced. I have carried an orange bullish count and a bearish blue count on this chart for a while now. If we can develop an impulsive 5-wave structure up that breaches 4508. I'll remove the bearish blue count targeting 4030-4060. Should we rally in a corrective 3-wave manner and fail to take out key resistance, then breach today's LOD at 4277.25. Then I will remove the orange bullish count. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
2
/ES (SPY) Gap Fill Long with Confluence/Odds Enhancers!While wariness remains re: larger timeframe structure for US equities (+ continued weakness in US gov’t bonds, USD strength), we are stalking near/intermediate-term longs via downside futures gaps in both the ES and NQ. The YM and, to a lesser extent RTY, are also approaching possible buy zones, thus bolstering this trade’s attractiveness. While the primary premise of the trade is filling the downside gap into “demand”, odds are enhanced via the trendline and anchored VWAP, which coincide with ~4300 (major psychological #). When placing equity index futures trades at LionHart, we closely watch potentially correlated markets (VIX, DXY, ZF/N/B…). Volatility has had a nice move alongside the downdraft in stocks, but may be a bit overaccelerated as it approaches “supply” (red lines). If equity indexes fill downside gaps and pierce buy zones, watch the VIX and other related markets for reversal signals. Regarding trade concerns/targeting, we sometimes prefer subjective target/trade management via small timeframe charts; that methodology will be applied here. New overhead supply has formed ~4360 and traditional resistance traders may defend ~4340-50, so trade profit margin is not ideal. Given that equity markets have a bullish bias, though, we still believe capital is worth deploying. If you can purchase multiple contracts, consider scaling ahead of the abovementioned levels and hold runners if prices press higher. The red zones = supply, where unfilled sell orders remain. Thank you for reading, thoughts/feedback welcome, and good luck/happy trading! Jon
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by LionHart_Trading