Nifty Consolidating Between Strong Support and Strong ResistanceNifty on a weekly chart is consolidating between strong support and strong resistance with a positive bias starting to appear for medium to long term. Strongest support for Nifty is between the zone of 17352 and 17430 (50 Weeks EMA). Strong resistance zone for Spot Nifty is 17916 and 18027. However crossing 18027 is not enough for bulls to take charge of the market. Bulls will regain the control only after we get a closing above 18266. Bears can overpower the market if the level of 17352 is broken. Things are interestingly poised with Adani saga turning new leaves every day once the fizz of the matter settles completely we may see a proper trend emerge.
Niftyindia
Nifty Facing 200 Hours EMA as a strong resistance. As expected 200 hours EMA is proving to be a strong resistance for NIFTY. Unless Nifty can convincingly close above it further journey will be difficult. Tomorrow again Nifty might consolidate a bit later in the day Nifty might try to cross 200 hours EMA. let us see if that can sustain.
Resistances For Nifty: 17910, 17974 and a very tough resistance thereafter near 18068.
Supports for Nifty: 17810, 17765 (Strong support 50 hours EMA) and finally 17649.
Medium Term Post Budget Outlook for NiftyIf Nifty holds on to 17427 which is the 50 Weeks EMA there are chances that we may see an upswing and turnaround in market sentiments in the medium term we may see a rally which can take us close to All time high of 18887 or give us a new All-time high on Nifty which can be just above 19K levels. If the support levels are held we have a chance of Cup and Handle BreakOut on Nifty.There are however my resistances to be crossed for this to be achieved. One of the major resistances will be 50 days EMA at 17991. Supports and Resistances in the medium to long term range.
Nifty Resistances: 17854, 17991, 18196, 18369, 18612 and 18887 and finally 19036
Nifty Supports: 17558, 17427 and finally 17353. Below 17353 only major support is near 17088 and 16757.
Medium to Long term Target for Nifty around 19,000. Strong closing on Friday and a good budget have increased the hopes of a post budget rally in Nifty investors are hoping that the worst of Hindenburg-Adani Saga is behind us and the momentum gained on Friday can continue further.
In any case in the medium to Long term target of Nifty is Point B shown in the chart which is around 18800 and 19,000. How Nifty reaches there is the point. Either we will see Nifty take the route of point A to point B directly or we may see further consolidation and Nifty might go from A to C first and then it may go from point C to point B.
The routes are purely based on assumption and mathematical models which might not be very accurate. The purpose of chart is to provide education. The time when Nifty will reach point B can’t be estimated accurately as there are many unknown factors and surprise elements at play.
One important deduction, 17386 is a major support for Nifty which should not be taken down on weekly closing. If 17386 is broken the trend will become negative.
NIFTY 50 - Sell on RiseThis week started with a gap down opening at 17541 vs Friday close at 17604.
Made low at 17405, though did not sustain at lows, moved up and closed near the day's high at 17648.
The previous support that nifty broke on Friday is going to act as immediate resistance
Currently, nifty50 looks like sell on the rise
Notice price action in the resistance zone and any weak price action would be an opportunity to create short trades.
Trade at your own risk
Nifty Next Week. Will it turnaround or tank further? Nifty has broken all but final support in the run up to the Budget Week following the report by an FII firm against Adani group which holds shorts for the same. Although loan books of Private banks and many PSU banks has nothing to do or negligible involvement in the group, the full Bank Nifty has tanked due to a knee jerk reaction by the investors.
Although there is nothing new in the report that investors did not know. When investors react in a panic mode at times the stocks having good and great valuation also get beaten along with the High valuation stocks. That is the nature of stock market. It is a spell which at times transfers money from the impatient to the patient. At the same time one should not be fool hardy and inflict pain upon oneself by holding on to the burning coal. The philosophy is intended and most of you will understand what I mean here.
17550 and 17457 are the key supports if broken we might be looking at 17341, 17103 or even 16746 levels. On the upper side in case of a turnaround and good budget the resistances will be near 17762, 17841, 17880 and 17978 before we can hit 18K levels again.
Nifty Daily - Wave Count updateNifty wave count update
As soon as the channel was broken, it seemed that wave 4 had started. But when it went out of bounds and started going down again without starting wave 5, the picture became clear that this was not an impulsive wave. It did not follow the essential rules of Wave 4. ABCDE this triangle is being formed. The trend line has been drawn to confirm the completion of the triangle pattern. The subsequent impulse wave is expected to form a new top.
Market Outlook: Perfect Doji of indecisiveness.Nifty again feeling trapped within the support and resistance zones of 17850 and 18200. Nifty tried but was not able to break free. Good news was that major support levels did not break. At global level the investors emotions are also hovering between global recession and soft landing of US economy. There is a hope of US Federal Reserve loosening the Hawkish stance but there is a fear of Bank of Japan becoming more Hawkish. It is a perfect ‘Doji’ on weekly chart again this week, indicating indecisiveness, hope and fear. Reflection of Global mood can also be seen in NIFTY. Hopefully Nifty can break on the positive side this week as there is not much space for indecisiveness left in the squeezing triangle created in the chart.
Support Levels: 17854, 17767 and 17386.
Resistance Levels: 18136, 18187 and 18279.
Expiry day trade setupHello Traders----As expected in yesterday's analysis index crossed 1st resistance and closed near 18170. next hurdle of the index is at 1250. If we see a negative price action then price may approach toward 18050 and till we are above 18k its a buy on dips. once we fail to hold 18k then we may see the levels of 17900 & 17800 as well. keep the levels in watch and trade safe.
Have a great weekly expiry.