NFLX Low Risk Short PositionNFLX has been trading in a range for many months, as we can see by this weekly chart here:
Stochastics on the daily chart are showing it as heavily overbought, with an RSI of about 85, likely in anticipation of earnings which come out in 6 days. Historically, NFLX sells off about 80% of the time post earnings, usually quite steeply, with an average sell-off of between $50-60 dollars within the week that follows earnings.
Here's a daily chart with stochastics visible:
Barring a few temporary outlying moves to the outer extremities of its range, I believe NFLX will either:
1) Push up towards and then reject at the $566 level and then retrace back down towards $515.00 post earnings.
2) Falter post earnings and retrace to more "typical" RSI and stochastic levels prior to earning hitting.
3) (Hopefully not) push outside its trading range (difficult to imagine this scenario actually happening) and form new highs above its existing range.
I am currently in an Iron Condor on NFLX with 570 and 490 short strikes. It is leaning bearish at the moment, but a move back down downwards 515 and a crush of implied volatility will substantially help my position. I believe both are likely to happen in the current market environment.
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If you were to enter NFLX short, you might consider it around the $566 level, assuming it pushes that high. You could accomplish this with a call credit spread which would give you the benefit of IV crush, assuming volatility decreases (which it would, if the price fell off steeply.)
You could also take a bearish debit spread, but that will struggle with volatility collapse as it's a BTO position.
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Whatever happens, I'll be curious to watch NFLX as it develops. I do not think it's current price behavior is sustainable.
NFLX
NFLX 1W Is the price of $860 per share real in the near future?Today, we will write down our expectations regarding the value of Netflix shares in the future, as well as a little bit tackle of the history of the company's development.
If you love reading business literature to inspire yourself for future achievements, then we strongly recommend that you read the story of "getting on your feet" once a small company Netflix that has been renting and selling VSH cassettes and DVDs by mail since 1997.
One year after founding, the owners stopped selling VSH and DVDs to focus on the initial idea of renting discs and cassettes.
Their entire history is based on the "super flexibility" of executives who sensed the future trend of their market and acted ahead of the curve.
Here's an example of how a small then Netflix beat the giant of their segment — Blockbuster
The heyday of Blockbuster dates back to 2004, when the company employed about 60 thousand people, and the company owned 9 thousand points of rent and stores. In the late 2000s, Blockbuster faced strong competition from online video service Netflix and filed for bankruptcy in 2010.
Meanwhile, Netflix has expanded its business since 2007 by introducing online media streaming, while not closing the DVD and Blu-ray rentals.
Since 2010, the company has expanded from the United States and expanded internationally.
And since 2013, Netflix has entered the industry of its own content with the debut of its first series.
Now, there are plenty of competitors to Netflix, and we all know them and use their services, but the price of NFLX shares confirms their strength in the market.
If you narrow the chart, you will see that the NFLX share price has been moving in a dynamic channel upward since 2004.
In 2012, the share price bounced off the lower boundary of the channel and t he $8 mark and began an upward trend that continues to this day.
In February-March 2020, when the entire market fell by 30-35%, or even more, NFLX shares fell in value only by -26%
However, the CoviD crisis was good for the company. Everyone sitted home and bought subscriptions to their services, and Netflix's stock doubled.
In fact, for the last 12 months, the price of NFLX shares has been in consolidation in the corridor of $475-575
Trading volumes are decreasing, which means that in the near future, the price will have a strong impulse.
There is a high probability that the momentum will be up , the price will break up and consolidate above $575 , and the next target from above will be $860 per NFLX share.
An alternative scenario is a fall in the NFLX price to the $275-325 zone. This scenario will activate when the price breaks and consolidates below $475 , and the first bell that it is worth refraining from longs will be the price approaching $500.
NFLX H8:PT BULLS 650USD BUY/HOLD(SL/TP)(STOCKS)(NEW)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview?
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NFLX H8:PT BULLS 650USD BUY/HOLD(SL/TP)(STOCKS)(NEW)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
click play to recap original setup.
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: NFLX 8hour chart review and outlook
::: revised/updated oultook
::: going into JULY strong chart
::: July is a strong month for TECH
::: breaking out of range
::: updated/revised outlook
::: TP BULLS is 650 USD +20%
::: BUY IT and get paid
::: expecting break down this week
::: runaway BULLS gap as well
::: recommended strategy: BUY HOLD IT
::: TP BULLS is 650 USD
::: BUY/HOLD setup
::: DO NOT expect overnight gains
::: This is stock market
:::Not casino in Macau
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
. N/A
RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Crypto, Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
$AAPL $NFLX $BABA $SNOW I OptionsSwing WatchlistBABA 1D I BABA broke from a massive falling wedge established last year, and its ready to run up into its earnings.
AAPL 1D I We saw AAPL break from a triangle pattern and retest the breakout just to make a higher high. Expecting to consolidate near $130.
NFLX 1H I After seeing a consolidation near the $500 price level, we saw NFLX make a push last week to $530 as expected.
SNOW 4H I Following growth stocks, particularly cloud stocks as they are making a quick comeback. SNOW is near IPO levels and we want to see consolidation above $250 for continuation.
#NFLX: Long term trend resuming? Daily and weekly are bullishThe way I see things we are about to have a face melting beta rally, with growth outperforming value again for the rest of the year and into Q1-Q2 2022 at least.
$NFLX might be a good position to have, quite unloved for a long time, lagging the mega cap rally, and coming out of a nice base, weekly uptrend formed after the 9 week down trend signal expired last week.
I like the Spielberg partnership news, and the way things are going with the new delta variant and rising cases I suspect people will do a whole lot more of sitting and streaming at home for much longer.
One thing $NFLX was lacking was new content, now they are once again able to film new stuff, and might actually generate some growth again.
Best of luck,
Cheers.
Ivan Labrie.
As another request, will look at NFLX! 👍As my follower @KingArthur904 requested, here are my insights about NFLX!
Well, we have an amazing bull trend here! What’s more, there’s nothing telling me that NFLX will go down. We have not a single bearish pattern here. I see NFLX at 546.45, and I’ll explain why soon.
But is there something that could make it correct? Yes. If NFLX loses the 525.12 I see it at the gap at 518.56.
Another possible danger is in the 4h chart. We are outside the Bollinger Bands, and the RSI is clearly overbought. This indicates euphoria, and usually, what follows euphoria is pullbacks.
If the bulls are strong enough, we’ll stop at 518, but we should be prepared for a possible pullback to the 511. Especially if the Nasdaq and other faangs drop as well. I don’t see NFLX reversing and becoming bearish, though, but I expect a pullback – despite the lack of confirmation. This could give us a buy chance, in my view, but it must do something good near the support level first!
Let’s just focus on the points mentioned in the 30min, as they will be our main guide for now.
If you liked this trading idea, remember to click on the “Follow” button to get more trading ideas like this, and if you agree with me, click on the “Agree” button 😉.
See you soon,
Melissa.
$AAPL $NFLX $ABNB $SNOW I OptionsSwing WatchlistABNB 2H I Following ABNB closely as it is breaking a downtrend from March and travel is near pre-covid levels.
AAPL 1D I Tested and broke out of the triangle we highlighted last week. We want to see a consolidation outside of the triangle before the next run.
NFLX 1H I Our bullflag paid last week, we want to see NFLX consolidate above $500 and continue its run up into earnings.
SNOW 4H I Following growth stocks, particularly cloud stocks as they are making a quick comeback. SNOW is near IPO levels and we want to see consolidation above $250 for continuation.
$AAPL $NFLX $BABA $HD I OptionsSwing WatchlistHD 2H I HD is currently breaking out of this bullish formation with strength. Looking for a break above $313 with a $320 target next week.
AAPL 1D I Held the bullish uptrend established back in September. Unusual options activity was bullish and they bet on a retest of $128 this upcoming week.
NFLX 1H I Trading within a bull flag, we are looking for a break this week give unusual options activity betting on the $495-$500 calls for 06/18.
BABA 1D I Massive falling wedge pattern which could break to the upside before earnings on 08/19. The Chinese giant is more than 30% down from ATH levels. However, there is some sense of renewed hope in the company as US investor Charlie Munger recently disclosed a sizable stake in the company.
Reward > Risk for VIAC - 2:1 - Yields 2.5% - P/E = 9+ (Cheap)Great long-term prospects in the coming year. Assets alone worth more than market cap. Blended model of streaming and legacy tv/cable along with ad supported model which NFLX doesn't have.
Excellent long-term value at this level bc it serves as a bond paying 2.5% div yield along with above average growth prospects (more-so than NFLX and NFLX doesn't pay a dividend and isn't profitable).
Dividend yielding stocks are gaining traction as the market theme for 2021 as inflation increases and growth stocks falter. This is the best of both worlds IMO.
(Opinion Only)
Should you buy Netflix stock? With its huge subscriber miss in the first quarter and weak guidance for subscriber growth, the weaknesses in its business model are undeniable. As a growing number of competitors take market share at a rapid rate, it’s clear that Netflix cannot generate anywhere close to the profits implied by the current stock price. Netflix reported just under 4 million new subscribers in the first quarter, well below its previous guidance of 6 million and consensus expectations of 6.3 million.