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Newzealanddollar

NZDUSD - 240 MINS CHARTThe Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart). Note: its my view only and its for educational purpose only. only who has got knowledge in this strategy will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves. we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. we anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive moves). Just ride the bullish or bearish impulsive move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle. buy low and sell high concept. buy at cheaper price and sell at expensive price. Keep it simple, keep it Unique. please keep your comments useful & respectful. Thanks for your support....
Short
by Tradelikemee
NZDCAD 1D MA50 is the key. Sell below, buy above.The NZDCAD pair has offered us an excellent pattern for a sell high/ buy low plan on our previous analysis more than two months ago: As you see, we were successful on the sell exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) rejection and the buy on the Lower Lows trend-line of both the Megaphone and Channel Down patterns. Right now there is a conflict as to where we could be in relation to the prior formations. This may be a quick accumulation below the 1D MA50 similar to July 30 2021 (green circle) or a failure below the 1D MA50 similar to April 15 2022. The 1D MA50 can give the solution to this. As long as 1D candles close below it, the action is a sell targeting first the 0.79100 Support and the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (0.7745) as part of a new Lower Low formation. A closing above the 1D MA50 though, should be taken as a bullish signal, targeting the 0.8250 Resistance and potentially the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1
GBPNZD Excellent buy level for a rally to the end of the yearThe GBPNZD pair has been following exactly our trading plan since our last update a month ago, getting rejected on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and hitting the Higher Lows zone of the long-term Triangle pattern that it has been trading in since the April 02 2020 High: The initial rebound after the August 12 Low is seeing a pull-back in the last 10 days and that may be the perfect opportunity for those who missed it, to buy again. Our long-term target for the end of the year is just below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at 2.010. Those who seek more risk, there is also the Symmetrical Resistance if the Triangle breaks to the upside. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
2
AUDNZD: Important Structure Breakout 🇦🇺🇳🇿 Important thing happened this night on AUDNZD pair: the price broke and closed above a wide daily supply area. The broken structure turned into a support now. The next goal for buyers is the narrow area around 1.128 level. It is based on a key monthly structure and 5 years' high. I will be patiently waiting for an occasional retest of the broken structure to buy AUDNZD. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
5
EURNZD remains a sell option below the 1D MA50The EURNZD pair continues trade on a bearish trend following our latest analysis last month. The price remains below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and within the long-term pattern of the Channel Down since the August 20 2020 High, it is aiming for at least the 1.5600 Support. The Buy Zone of the Channel Down is located right below the Support. A buy there offers an excellent Risk/ Reward ratio targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (1.6491) but a break below the Channel Down, should see us taking the loss and shifting back to selling as based on the 2020 fractal, the price can go as low as the 1.618 Fib extension (1.4500). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
1
AUD NZD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Despite a decent recovery from the start of the year, the AUD has struggled in the midst of underlying negative risk sentiment, China’s continued struggles with Covid breakouts, and more recently the big slump in key commodities (Iron Ore & Coal). China’s economy is always a key focus for the AUD. While all major economies are expected to slow in 2022, China is expected to recover (monetary and fiscal policy very stimulative). The expected recovery has been a key focus for our previous bullish AUD bias, which worked out well until a few weeks ago. Our view was that China’s expected recovery would be enough to keep commodities like Iron Ore supported even while other commodities push lower on global demand concerns, but price action has proven us wrong on that assumption, with Iron Ore dropping close to 30% from the mid-June. The RBA stuck to a higher pace of tightening with a 50bsp hike on in August, but it wasn’t enough to provide the AUD with upside as the bank mentioned their policy is not on a pre-determined path and also expressed growing concerns about consumers. While Iron Ore prices stays pressured and covid lockdowns in China persists, we have a neutral bias for the AUD. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers some recovery in Australia’s key commodity exports (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears) should be supportive for the AUD. With the RBA just getting started with their hiking cycle, there is scope for them to turn more aggressive, which means any overly hawkish triggers from their meeting this week could trigger some bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding new ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers more downside in Australia’s key commodity exports (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, and additional news on recent centralized iron ore buyers) could be negative for the AUD. Despite CPI >6% we’ve recently heard typical stubbornly hesitant comments pushing back against aggressive tightening implied by STIRs. Thus, any overly dovish comments from the bank this week or simply failing to surprise with a bigger hike than what is priced can trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the AUD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their recent bleeding. Until the covid situation improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term tradesin line with strong short-term sentiment. NZD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Despite the RBNZ being one of the most hawkish central banks from 2021, it hasn’t been enough to provide any meaningful trending support for the NZD. The cyclical concerns for the global economy, alongside concerns from China regarding their struggles with their covid-zero policy as well as recent big falls in commodity prices has kept the NZD pressured. Even though the RBNZ is expecting to keep their hiking cycle intact as they proved at their July meeting, some mild economic concerns have been starting to show up in the recent data, something they alluded to in their statement as well by noting medterm downside risks for the economy. Recent data such as consumer and business confidence has confirmed this view. Furthermore, a big focus for the RBNZ’s aggressive policy (apart from high inflation of course) has been to try and calm down a very hot housing market, and even though the fall is small we have seen YY house prices cool starting to cool down. These developments on the growth side are not expected to stop the RBNZ’s hiking cycle just yet, but some market participants are expecting a more dovish tone reflecting these concerns and a push back in hike expectations in the months ahead, with some calling for a possible dovish shift potentially as soon as the August meeting coming up next week. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Tactical positioning looksstretched, and trading at these levels it increases possibility of some mean reversion or position squaring which could trigger some upside in the NZD. Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. With calls for the bank to potentially tilt more dovish, any outsized hike (75bsp) or aggressive push back against those expectations could offer some NZD upside. Any catalyst that triggers some recovery in commodity markets (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears; lower growth concerns) should be supportive for the NZD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding additional ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. Since a lot of policy tightening has been priced into STIR markets, any negative catalysts that triggers less hawkish RBNZ expectations (faster deceleration in growth or inflation) could trigger downside for the NZD. Watch out for a lowering in OCR expectations at the upcoming meeting as some participants think the bank will announce a slow dovish pivot in the next few meetings. Any catalyst that triggers more downside in commodity markets (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, further growth concerns) could weigh on the NZD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the NZD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China as the New Zealand economy is also very dependent on trade with China and Australia, and also dependent on whether the RNBZ sticks to their hawkish tone or pivots more dovish in the meetings ahead. Given the RBNZ’s current outlook, we would favour short-term opportunities in the NZD in line with short-term sentiment.
by thunderpips
1
AUDNZD Best short of the year!The AUDNZD pair is trading within a Channel Up since the start of May but has most likely peaked based on this unique pattern going back 8 years. The chart is on the 1W time-frame where the MACD is trading downwards after a late June Bearish Cross. As you see, every such Bearish Cross above the 0.0 MACD level, formed a long-term Top on either a Channel Up or Down pattern since 2014. All the downtrends that followed this peak formation were sharp sell-offs that dropped to at least the 1.0500 level (symmetrical Support) even though most reached a lot lower. As a result since we are still inside the Channel Up pattern, this could be the best place for a sell position this year. You can use three target levels: the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) short-term, the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) medium-term and the 1.0500 Symmetrical Support for the long-term. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
3
NZDJPY Sell opportunityThe NZDJPY pair has been trading sideways within a Resistance and Support Zone since the June 08 High, using the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as the pivot. The longer it does though, the more the MACD on the 1W time-frame is losing momentum and we may see a strong move downwards. In fact this pattern resembles the March - June 2021 sequence that eventually broke down to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) initially and the 1D MA300 (red trend-line) eventually. There is still a Support level at 79.500 but we will be targeting 82.000 and 81.000 in extension on the medium-term. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
3
Can the RBNZ push the NZD/USD close to 0.6500?The NZD/USD has been on a bullish trend against the US dollar since August 14, 2022. Unfortunately, the pair could not reach the 0.6500 key area, before staging a two-day reversal starting on August 15. Last week's high topped out at around 0.6470. The drop in US Treasury yields was one factor that caused this uptrend in the NZD/USD, as investors worried about the US Federal Reserve tempering its aggressiveness as CPI data showed signs of inflation easing up. With the upcoming RBNZ monetary policy statement this Wednesday 17 August, markets expect a 50-basis points rate hike, increasing the NZ cash rate to 3.00%. This rate hike may work in the favour of the Kiwi dollar and may reignite its previous week's bullishness. This may be a contributing factor to the NZD/USD trying again to penetrate the 0.6500 price level. However, the Kiwi dollar might be staying relatively neutral in respect to local fundamental data. The currency might be more-so relying on external factors, especially the state of China's economy, and global commodity prices. On the technical side, the NZD/USD outlook is indecisive from the perspective of the daily chart. We might have to wait for the RBNZ decision to be released before a clear path emerges for the pair. The pair currently hovers above the 38.2% level of the Fibonacci Retracement Pivot Points on the daily chart and has seemingly found support at 0.6330. The NZD/USD price could potentially bounce at this pivot point and move to at least the 61.8% fib level or 0.6390. Further afield, a break above the 78.6% fib level or the 0.6450 resistance level, the pair may continue the bullish move toward the 100% Fibonacci level, which is the 0.65 key target area for the NZD.
by BlackBull_Markets
NZD/USD technical analysis: 200-day moving average next?There have been some interesting technical developments in the NZD/USD daily chart recently. The price action this week effectively broke above the 50-day moving average’s dynamic resistance at 0.627, with the Kiwi dollar extending to 0.645. The NZD/USD pair hasn’t traded above 50-dma since early April. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will meet next Wednesday, with the market pricing in a fourth consecutive 50-basis-point hike, with the official cash rate expected to rise to 3%. As a result, New Zealand has the highest interest rates among major countries, giving the Kiwi dollar a relative advantage vis-à-vis peers. The MACD, which has decisively broken above the zero line, and the 14-day Relative Strength Index, which is approaching overbought conditions, provide additional evidence of positive momentum. The last time the RSI was this high was on March 23. The next area of resistance is at the level of 0.658 (June high). A break through this barrier would pave the way for an assault on the 200-day moving average at 0.663, where we could see some profit-taking behaviour emerge, given the 10% rally from July's lows.
by Capitalcom
NZDUSD Resuming uptrend to 0.6500 at least.The NZDUSD pair turned bullish and reversed the medium-term sell bias exactly on the moment we wanted it last time we posted on analysis on it: As you see, the rebound took place exactly on the Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line of the long-term Bearish Megaphone, a pattern it's been trading in for over 1 year. At the moment, the price is consolidating around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), struggling to stay above it but nonetheless, it closed a 1D candle above it for the first time since April 12. Every time the pair closes above the 1D MA50, the rebound is extended to at least the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. This time, that at 0.65470 and if that is achieved within August, the price will make contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as well. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
1