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EURUSD expected high probability moves in line to NFP reportsJust another Forex trading snack! I’ve mentioned it in chat before... “just before major expected news releases EURUSD usually seeks middle ground.” For most of this week I’ve been long EU, but mid week just before NFP release, I started to look for shorts. Why? Because for years now EUR and other dollar pairs have set their respective high’s or low’s and then moved to a middle of the most recent short trend move. This time was no different. EURUSD jumped off it weekly wedge low 1.09 ish and shot up to close to 1.11 this morning 9-5-19. From there it was an easy as well as a high probability short entry trade. If you have statistics like this which point to high probability moves—that’s an edge! This Friday morning 9-6-19 we will get a move either higher or lower for the EURUSD after the NFP report. So trying to trade that directionally before hand on the news is gambling. Playing the market as I have using known statistical prior to moves or reactions, well, that a higher probability of making money with lower risk. That is also the difference to consistently becoming more successful and patient as a trader. In life as in trading, you either make dust or you eat dust. All the best in your trading. This is not trading advice, but the information is for trading purposes only. If you trade any ideahttps://www.tradingview.com/x/tDPoQRzt/ you assume all risk of loss.
by PipsTradingClub
Intra day long Trade GBPUSD Yes I know my earlier post was about wanting Sell this pair around the 1.2300 level. However, with this impulsive and sudden move higher and taking into account of some potential dollar positive news on Friday ( tomorrow / 8/23/19 ) I can see a run up in price based on a EW 5 wave setup I see on the hourly or 30M charts. I know they are short term charts, but this is only a short term intra day trade / a tad bit longer scalping trade. You can pick which is which. If I were to try this trade...and I might yet due to the fact it plays well with my targeted starting point where I’d like to go short. And there is nothing wrong with being a tad bit aggressive with trades so long as you trade light Use tight stops Have already booked profits to then risk being aggressive on a trade. Have a clear plan And are prepared to trade that plan using your rules. If I were to trade this—I’m looking at the pink zones / horizontal supports, as my entry points. Those zones play well with fib levels as well. I’d use 20 pips stops or less, and I’d target just above the highs of the last 12 hours as of this post as my take profit zone. Over all I like to go short on my longer time frame charts. With this potential short-term EW 5 wave setup, it only adds to my conviction on going short at my levels should it play out. All the best. Should you trade any setup / idea, you assume all risk of loss. In life and in trading, you either make dust or you eat dust.
Long
by PipsTradingClub
GBPUSD up dateHere is another Forex trading snack! With news bombs flying around GBPUSD has finely broken higher. But what’s new here with these kind of moves right? It seems the market is leaning very negative, so when there is news, rumors of news, or news that can be interpreted as positive / no hard Brexit, the currency has a higher probability of jumping higher. But as I was saying in a previous post I was waiting for higher prices to then go short once again. However when triangles form like this one did on the 4 H chart.... Then I usually take an aggressive counter trend trade— just in case of such moves. My idea here isn’t based on technical or economic changes, but on nailing the traders who entered the trade on the short side expecting a normal triangle break with the over all longer trend, but were stopped out on a news bomb! I was able to scalp 65 pips by setting a long order just over the top triangles trend line and then set a take profit just under my new order short zone I had pointed out some days earlier. For the short trade idea now... I’m looking to enter short orders around the 1.23 level or that longer term black descending trend line. It a swing style trade, so a good technical level with the 50 and 61.8 fib’s And that descending trend line. If GBPUSD does push over the 1.2380-1.24 price I’d expect short traders to get squeezed and run for the hills. So I feel short traders will defend the zone where my entry price targets are. We will have to wait to see what happens in Asia’s Friday’s market open or maybe even Europe’s open. I suspect this triangle break will have some traders yet grabbing their short trade profits before the weekend. In turn giving my short trade idea a better price to enter. As normal, if you trade any ideas, the overall risk of loss is yours. This is not trading advice, but for training purposes on how I trade the markets. In life as well as in trading, you either make dust or eat dust! All the best.
Short
by PipsTradingClub
NZDUSD trade idea Thought I’d poss up some Forex trading snacks! The NZDUSD is coming into a short term risk reward zone and up against a falling channel trend line. I see this as an opportunity to short some mainly because the price action is heading into multiple technical resistance zones and the back story is one of one of the most dovish central banks VS one central bank that is reluctantly becoming dovish. Also set into the mix, with a risk off stance currently entering the markets—the stronger of the two currencies is the USD just on it’s safe haven status. On this 4 hour chart you can see the falling channel and current price action hovering around the upper channel around 0.6450 Using the last daily high price around 0.6470 as a stop zone, which is also above the falling trend line for some more possible added resistance. The pair would need to break what has been a stronger trend of late to invalidate this setup. My target for entry is 0.6440-50 , my targets would be the recent years low around 0.6300-50 Recap; short trade entry 0.6440-50 Stop. 0.6470 Total risk. 20-30 pips Target 0.6300-50 or 100-150 pips Risk reward Better then 1-3 Trade idea is only for education and training. Should you trade any idea the assumption of risk is all yours. In trading you either make dust or you eat dust. Plan your trade and trade you own plan. All the best
Short
by PipsTradingClub
EURUSD I believe moves more on dollar revaluation .Wow! What crazy short term market moves!! That right on a day like today where the EU zone reported weaker economic numbers but seemingly the EUR held up in value until news / rumors / or presidential Tweet on social media, announced that the China trade war was relaxing just a bit. Pushing tariffs out which gave the impression of relaxing the hard line trade war stance and a heightened possibility for a trade war resolution... And Poof! EUR weakens USD strengthens, and a lot of newer traders are asking themselves seeing the sudden moves “Now what?” Understand what is most likely to happen if and when this trade war really ends. Today’s moves were nothing... First let me say I don’t have all the answers. I’ve made most if not all the kind of mistakes you have made. I lost some money today on the EURGBP trade idea I posted, but also was on the right side of a win-fall calling the GBPCAD move right. What I’m saying is just my personal opinion, my thoughts, and observations, and how the EURUSD has moved this summertime period. And it is my belief that the EURUSD should it be on the side of strengthening and moving up—that a move like that is mostly due to government dollar revaluation, and not due to economic outlooks. On my daily chart you can see the EURUSD has been over all, in the long term grinding lower. Recently Trump tweeted how he wanted lower rates / lower dollar valuations, and Poof! EURUSD created a false breakdown—jumping into the 1.1200’s and there began stalling. Economically what really changed in either economy? Both the US and the EUR zone were starting to show signs of a global slowdown. What I’m seeing is the markets have carved out a channel showing the extremes of valuations within these times of nations attempting to use politics to manipulate currency values and keep economies going despite politically overspending. So what does this have to do with trying to trade the EURUSD? As traders we value trades as to where are the highest probabilities of a move happening. Up or down being in the center of a daily channel I’d say there is a 50% chance of it going up and a 50% chance of going down. No real trade probabilities. Of coarse as I explained already political Tweets can move markets. So as the EURUSD moves down towards the lower channel trend-line the odds of a bounce goes up. Why? Because president Trump needs a weaker dollar in an attempt to get a more favorable out come with the China trade disputes. And as the EURUSD goes down towards the lower trend-line, the probabilities of crazy tweets increases, and the current market outlook for the Fed cutting rates in the US more—should push the pair higher. On the top end though what conditions could take place pushing the EURUSD towards 1.1350ish ?Certainly not in terms of true economic comparisons between the 2 economies should the EURUSD sustain that kind of valuations. Only a successful political policy of the USA government to weaken the dollar could in my view. But then who am I? Being in the middle of the range and having a higher news risk to trading this pair, makes this one a bit more risky to trade for new traders. If you are looking to trade it... trade lighter and with smaller size. Use tighter stops ( thus risking less), shorten profits target zones ( don’t have unrealistic dreams of a favorable bigger move, yet be aware of a large unfavorable move that can happen with just a Tweet. ) Those should be the lessons of today’s market moves. Good luck to all your trades. In markets like today, you either make dust or you eat dust. All the best.
by PipsTradingClub
2
It's a loser's game - officiallyThis post is modified and re-posted after it was banned (a matter of fact and the truth). Why? I was said to be promoting a broker's website seemingly because by I identified the source of quotation and said that they were being honest. I have now substituted the name the broker with a fictitious ABCXYZ (which is not the name of any broker as far as I am aware). The rest of the post is the same. I promote nobody - not even myself. ESMA is not a broker. The quotation is directly from an email I received today from ABCXYZ.com ABCXYZ.com has been fully transparent on the risk of losing money on it's platform. Nothing in this educational post is to suggest that people avoid trading. The sole intention of this post is for new and season traders to better understand the risks, and to realise the amount of effort, discipline, training and sacrifice that are needed to become consistently profitable. As a new trader your chances are very very slim, for making consistent profits over months or years. Some people think that it's all about following a set or rules. Well, if it was that simple then 80% of people would just follow rules and be millionaires. That's not going to happen! For novices, the high probability of losing money is nothing to do with any particular broker. It must be something else! I'm afraid the most important factor is hardly ever discussed in forums. What's that? It's about 'trader psychology'. It's that unseen thing - the elephant in the room - that causes the problems. I say, it does not matter what system you use to tackle the markets with, the underlying obstacle is 'your psychology'. It is not about mastering the charts. It's all about self-mastery. Any dissenting opinions? Have your say now. For the avoidance of doubt or suspicion, I am 100% committed to helping other traders develop for absolutely no pecuniary or other advantage to me - ever! In other words, I'll never take you to some site that sells tips, signals, or courses - where you'd start of at free but then have to pay to learn from some 'inner circle'.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
Three things Mark Douglas taught me. (Pt2) Risk & Money Management Risk management, in my opinion, is equal in importance to psychology because it allows your trading strategy/edge to play out by keeping you in the market equity wise. There really isn’t much to risk management other than its number one rule, never risk more than 1% per trade. Risking one percent per trade allows your trading system to take losses and have drawdowns but not enough to the point that you won’t be able to get out of it. I’m actually not a big fan of risk so I place trades using less than 1% of my capital. A lot of traders would think risking .75% per trade based off of my trading strategy is ludicrous but to me, it makes a lot of sense. As a trend follower, I take multiple small losses and few big winners that make double, triple, or quadruple, the loss. Trend following is very difficult because of the multiple small losses but definitely pays off because it lets your winners run. Big winners and small losses are definitely a trader’s best friend because it allows you to have a high risk reward ratio. If you risk $1 per trade, your goal is to make at least $4 back. If you constantly trade looking for 4x your risk all you need to do is win more than 20% of the time to be profitable. (Ex: Win 1 trade=$4 Lose 4=$4=0) .To be profitable you have to win more than 1/5 trades or 20%. With that being said, risk management gets even better when you use money management. As you can tell from the title, money management and risk management are two different things in my opinion. This wasn’t always true though. The old me would've said risk management and money management are the same exact thing but now that I know what I know now, I completely disagree. Money management to me is where you spread your risk to give yourself an even bigger edge. To illustrate, let’s look at the example shown here. According to my trading strategy my risk would be .75% of my equity on this trade but I would "spread the .75%" by taking it and dividing it into six trades instead of placing it on one. Let’s say I have $1000 in my trading account with .75% of $1k being $7.5. I would take the $7.5 and divide it into six or $1.25 per trade. My trading system would've told me to take buy limit trades at 1.66308 and 1.66815 at .005 lots (possible through Oanda) at 25 pips stop loss. Unfortunately the trades would’ve been a loss of $2.50 total or -.25% but because I'm spreading the risk I would still be able to enter four more trades. The remaining four would be a buy stop at 1.6654, 1.67068, and two at 1.67980 in anticipation of price closing at 1.68300 for us to take profit. If we were to follow our trading plan and disregarded negative psychological energy, our end profit would be as follows: -$1.25, -$1.25, +8.73, $5.90= Total profit $12.13 or 1.2% gain.
Education
by ElieTheForexTraitor
5
GBPJPY currently consolidating* NEW TRADER any tips or comments would be much appreciated!* GJ is in a uptrend in the daily chart but is currently going through some consolidation on hourly. If it breaks the trend-line then I will be looking for a longer term sell, still have to see a pullback. If it hits the light blue mark, that could be a short opportunity for a buy(would set the take profit close to the resistance). Will have to keep up with the market to see where it's going.
by sagagenesis
1
new trader GBPUSD 1.3384 shortMade this trade with speculation that GBPUSD is short, however trade is going against me at the moment. I utilized my strategy of creating a range between my blue and red levels, and encapsulated within them speculated inside of the shorter timeframes. Although the trade is going against me, I am using risk management that is proper and comfortable for my trade style. I am considering switching back from my new style/experiment from intraday back to a more swing trading style and larger timeframe - as this style is causing me stress along with college.
Short
by wtpWTP
new trader possible several intraday captures using flowHave bias on several possibly intraday captures for the EURUSD; as I suspect price is ranging between my levels indicated in blue and red. this is because price may be ranging between the two, and using my current methodology aim to exploit and capture price fluctuations at low risk and gain moderate at at best, high returns. I believe there is a short opportunity as the overall momentum trend line is heading downwards for either intraday or more long duration trades. Furthermore, as many traders state the trend is your friend, although being creative with your own ideas, it is good to utilize what works.
by wtpWTP
new trader utilizing trend momentum, flowHave bias to believe that, as trend momentum has been broken, from upwards to downwards on the 4HR/1HR charts for the EURUSD - but overall may be going long for the Daily and Weekly chart timeframes. I believe price may spike down and hit my levels colored blue for a overall rally on the Daily and Weekly charts. However, I would like to capture price going down on the H or 4HR in order to gain more experience with longer, intraday, type of trading, as I believe it fits my style more, and I would perhaps like to trade more often as in full-time. Risk is a conservative acceptable level for me.
by wtpWTP
new trader utilizing flow methodologyI have bias to believe that price for the GBP/USD will slightly fluctuate or reverse with my designated zones. this is due to levels within the blue and red zones where there I believe may be a imbalance, and price will flow, or reverse in order to go to other levels. My trades placed are limit orders, and aim to capture these reversals with low risk, and moderate-to-high rewards. This strategy is used with analyzing the current trend momentum, blue levels and red levels indicating imbalances we aim to exploit for low risk trades. At the moment, I am testing a new strategy of my existing, seeking to capture and exit 3 trades during their reversals.
by wtpWTP